Stop the Insanity!!!

[r100comics]

People have come to believe that certain books in certain grades are "bulletproof" and can never lose money over time. I ask you, is this psychology more symptomatic of a market top or a market bottom? And so, is NOW a good time to be "buying comics for the long-run"?

 

Gene

 

Perhaps the psychological reasoning you are ascribing to buyers is itself incorrect. Perhaps they are simply buying because CGC has legitimized this market, and is creating an ever increasing "feel-good" factor that is fostering consumer confidence. Unlike just 10 years ago, people know that the 9.4 they bought yesterday, will not turn into a restored 7.5 tomorrow when they come to sell.

 

This is giving more and more people the confidence to invest in this hobby, which in itself is bringing some amazing books into the marketplace. I see no reason to read well founded consumer confidence, as gullible over confidence.

[r100comics]

We cannot use the term "crash" anymore, we need to think of something else in it's place. "Market Correction" isn't catchy or sensational enough, howabout "Market Decay" or "Market Slump" ?

 

 

Call it a Market...

Decline

Desent

Downslide

Reversal

Deterioration

Reduction

Abatement

Waning

Depreciation

Abridgment

Dwindling

Ebbing

Lessening

Shrinkage (sorry Seinfeld!)

 

Timely

 

 

 

I wonder who got a thesaurus for Christmas ?

[delekkerste]

What are buyers feeling in the middle of that spectrum? Why is it either of two extremes?

 

If you can look at the recent sales data and say that they do not look extreme with a straight face, then I suggest you quit your regular job and become a professional poker player. It's become extreme because prices have gone parabolic in recent years on top of a multi-decade advance, outstripping income and economic growth, as well as the appreciation of almost all other asset classes, by a wide margin despite a deteriorating collector base.

 

 

Otherwise, I think all you are telling us is we're going to run out of track somewhere. I think all of us but the most dense blindered buyers know

 

Again, please look at some of the recent posts on the Board and tell me that again with a straight face.

 

I can't pinpoint when a big decline will start or how long it will last or to what extent prices will fall. However, it is like a cumulative probability function - each passing day brings us closer to the inevitable decline, because a bubble is inherently unstable and you can only keep inflating it for so long.

 

 

Perhaps the psychological reasoning you are ascribing to buyers is itself incorrect.

 

I think many people would like it to be incorrect, but we'll see how much longer prices can continue to go on like this.

 

Gene

[sterlingcomics]

I'm just happy to be here. Here's to the CGC Forum Members and Bay Commandos!

[Aman619]

thats some trick, replying to my post and getting someone elses name in the headline as the one you are replying to. How do you do that? and why??

[Mr_Glass]

Bottom line is your either a short term speculator or a long term investor. If you know what has always had value and will always have value and and are in the market for the long haul (I'm looking to cash out in 20 - 30 years) then you'll more than likely do fine.

[Aman619]

nope. Gene is saying the exact opposite. He and I may disagree on when the decline will begin even on the "right" books.... but Gene shouts at the top of his lungs "Look out! Its ALL going to be nearly worthless due to a convergence of trends."

 

I believe many comics prices will decline, but, like you, the best stuff will preserve values, even increase more.

[delekkerste]

thats some trick, replying to my post and getting someone elses name in the headline as the one you are replying to. How do you do that? and why??

 

Why are you being so argumentative/paranoid about the most inconsequential details? This seems to be a recurring trend in some of your recent posts. To answer your question, I do it all the time, responding to multiple posts (often by different authors) in one post so I don't have to make 2 or 3 posts on essentially the same topic. No big deal. Definitely not worth you questioning.

 

 

but Gene shouts at the top of his lungs "Look out! Its ALL going to be nearly worthless due to a convergence of trends."

 

I really don't know where you're getting this from. I've said that nearly every book from every age is going to be AFFECTED by the factors I have cited. I have NEVER said that it's all going to be "nearly worthless", let alone shouted it at the top of my lungs. Action #1 will never be "nearly worthless". Amazing Fantasy #15 will never be "nearly worthless". Even Hulk #181 will never be "nearly worthless". In fact, some books may only suffer modest declines. A few may escape unscathed or even appreciate. However, on the whole, I do feel that things will be much worse than the vast majority expects.

 

It seems as though people are taking great liberties to distort what I have said for the benefit of their own arguments. I don't mind people disagreeing with me, but please have the courtesy to argue against what I have actually said and not twist my words, make incorrect inferences or otherwise misrepresent my beliefs.

 

Gene

[lou_fine]

Perhaps the psychological reasoning you are ascribing to buyers is itself incorrect. Perhaps they are simply buying because CGC has legitimized this market, and is creating an ever increasing "feel-good" factor that is fostering consumer confidence. Unlike just 10 years ago, people know that the 9.4 they bought yesterday, will not turn into a restored 7.5 tomorrow when they come to sell.

 

This is giving more and more people the confidence to invest in this hobby, which in itself is bringing some amazing books into the marketplace. I see no reason to read well founded consumer confidence, as gullible over confidence.

 

Don't know how long this positive consumer confidence can last with all of the pressing and cleaning that's being done by BSD collectors and dealers in order to juice their books up from 8.5's to 9.6's through this undisclosed restoration. This market sentiment could quickly turn negative if enough bad press jobs are done in which 9.6 books begin to warp and revert back to their former 8.5 condition while sitting in their blue CGC holders over a period of time.

 

Especially with improving restoration identification techniques, the 9.6 which you buy today could very well turn into a restored 8.5 in five years time when you want to sell.

[drbanner]

Don't know how long this positive consumer confidence can last with all of the pressing and cleaning that's being done by BSD collectors and dealers in order to juice their books up from 8.5's to 9.6's through this undisclosed restoration. This market sentiment could quickly turn negative if enough bad press jobs are done in which 9.6 books begin to warp and revert back to their former 8.5 condition while sitting in their blue CGC holders over a period of time.

 

Especially with improving restoration identification techniques, the 9.6 which you buy today could very well turn into a restored 8.5 in five years time when you want to sell.

 

The pressing issue is concerting (not that pressed books are themselves "restored" IMHO, but that the process may reverse itself over time and will actually change the grade of the book as you note), but it's really only a big issue with thick, golden age books. Silver age and newer sized books aren't subject to that same transformation, so the issue only applies to a tiny % of the market...

[fantastic_four]

Silver age and newer sized books aren't subject to that same transformation, so the issue only applies to a tiny % of the market...

 

Comicwiz showed some examples of Bronze Byrne x-men which warped in the case after he bought them...what did you think about those?

[drbanner]

Silver age and newer sized books aren't subject to that same transformation, so the issue only applies to a tiny % of the market...

 

Comicwiz showed some examples of Bronze Byrne x-men which warped in the case after he bought them...what did you think about those?

 

Different issue...those appeared to have been warped by the inner well, not books that had been pressed, slabbed, and then the press "de-activating" and the book reverting to it's previous unpressed state (this is the issue with the golden age press-resubs lou mentions above). I just don't that many silver age and newer books needing to be pressed in the 1st place, relative to the number of golden age books that could/have benefited from the procedure.

 

I've got a couple books that I'm a little weary of leaving in the slab as the well is slightly warped/crooked. We talked about my concerns on this a good while back, remember the discussion of the clear "mylar-ish" backing boards I had seen?

[comicwiz]

Different issue...those appeared to have been warped by the inner well, not books that had been pressed, slabbed, and then the press "de-activating" and the book reverting to it's previous unpressed state (this is the issue with the golden age press-resubs lou mentions above). I just don't that many silver age and newer books needing to be pressed in the 1st place, relative to the number of golden age books that could/have benefited from the procedure.

 

I've got a couple books that I'm a little weary of leaving in the slab as the well is slightly warped/crooked. We talked about my concerns on this a good while back, remember the discussion of the clear "mylar-ish" backing boards I had seen?

 

I'm not sure if you saw my thread which addressed this issue -- scroll down to thread #386814 - 02/08/04 11:26 AM -- 3rd paragraph. After cracking the slabs, removing the barex inner-wells, and examining them carefully, I noticed that the inner wells themselves were prefectly straight. No signs of warping. The books however do posess the warping as shown in the photos in that same thread.

 

As for any claims that pressing and/or cleaning procedures are exclusive, or rarely found in anything other than GA books, I'm not convinced that this is necessarily an accurate statement. It appears that my Bronze-Age X-Men, and a few other BA books which I'll be tracking over the next few months might serve as secondary examples of this phenomenom. It is my opinion that such methods do not ALWAYS follow any pattern of any specific era, or premiums garnered by Pedigree or HTF books, but rather a series of variables that make the practiice a rather profitable pursuit.

 

A crude, but very likely example; a book pops-up on eBay -- in the NM- to NM range -- the barcode is written down, and a call is made to CGC. After carefully reviewing the graders notes, the person decides s/he has enough information to determine whether the book will improve an increment of .2 or .4 through pressing. In such situations, I would argue that even on the top-end purchase (ie. paying top-end price for a NM- or NM book) will not impede the pressing pursuit, or profiteering endeavour, as the NM and NM+ multiple-guide pricing formula's still makes the endeavour monetarily rewarding.

 

I've said it before -- and I'll say it again -- happy capitalism!!

 

However, what I find to be rather DISCONCERTING is that in an effort to maximise profits, the profiteer DOES NOT take the book to a professional conservation/restoration person to have the book 'professionally" pressed, and the calculating and profit-maximising interplay between multiple guide profits and unethical selling practices kicks into full-gear, and begins to intefere with common sense, as there is no guarantee that this amatuer press job will remain permanent. In the case of a Hulk 181, a GS X-Men 1, or an X-Men 94, the sad reality is that a buyer of a book which had recieved a bad press job, is now standing to lose thousands, and thousands of dollars because his NM 9.4 or 9.6 book reverted back to a NM- 9.2.

[sfilosa]

In the case of a Hulk 181, a GS X-Men 1, or an X-Men 94, the sad reality is that a buyer of a book which had recieved a bad press job, is not standing to lose thousands, and thousands of dollars because his NM 9.4 or 9.6 book reverted back to a NM- 9.2.

 

In which case, he/she will proceed to the nearest conservation expert to have the book professionally pressed to regain the 9.4-9.6 original grade.

 

 

Or more likely, the book will never been taken out of it's CGC case (at least in that buyer's lifetime) and will be sold on eBay as it's original grade.

 

ONCE AGAIN:

 

I'm more worried about buying a book that has been damaged in the CGC case after being sold to ten different collectors (and I use that term loosely). I'm buying a book that was a NM 9.4, but WILL NEVER be able to attain that grade again as physical damage has now been incurred by the book.

[comicwiz]

In which case, he/she will proceed to the nearest conservation expert to have the book professionally pressed to regain the 9.4-9.6 original grade.

 

Or more likely, the book will never been taken out of it's CGC case (at least in that buyer's lifetime) and will be sold on eBay as it's original grade.

 

ONCE AGAIN:

 

I'm more worried about buying a book that has been damaged in the CGC case after being sold to ten different collectors (and I use that term loosely). I'm buying a book that was a NM 9.4, but WILL NEVER be able to attain that grade again as physical damage has now been incurred by the book.

 

Using the same logic you use for correcting books which have had bad pressing jobs performed on them, why don't you take your dinged-up NM 9.4, which now has blunted corners -- due to the fact that the book was somehow damaged by the CGC case -- and restore it! Better yet, why not trim it? Do away with the nasty dings in one fell-swoop!

[sfilosa]

Obviously pressing the book the first time DID NOT get a PLOD, therefore, it is reasonable to assume that a professional could at least repress the book again into the same shape, without getting a PLOD.

 

The dings that have been created by the book being shipped ten times COULD NOT be restored WITHOUT getting a PLOD.

[shadroch]

I apologize if you construed my comments as snide, as this is not how they were intended.

 

Apology accepted. I'm all for constructive debate here on the Boards.

 

 

Gene, this is a comparison you always make in order to support your ideas but does this actually have ANY validity ? You are comparing apples and oranges. The largest factor across markets as a whole is undoubtedly the economy

 

This is where the apples & oranges argument falls apart. The largest factor across markets is not the economy. It is psychology. A company announces great earnings but its stock price tanks. Happens all the time - why? Terrorists attack and bring down the Twin Towers - a big, market-shaking move, right? I defy anybody to look at a chart of the S&P 500 without the dates attached and show me where 9/11/01 shows up on the chart. You won't even see it, because the market psychology was already so negative by then.

 

If anything, I would say my analysis is even more relevant to comic books than the stock market. Why? Because stocks and bonds generate underlying cash flows, so there are "no-arbitrage" boundaries to how low they can go. Comics are not bounded on either the upside or the downside - their prices are driven solely by the psychology of the market. Right now, after 40 years of rising prices and an explosion in prices in recent years, most collectors literally believe prices on many books to be bulletproof. Sure things. Can't miss opportunities. That type of mentality has eventually spelled trouble in EVERY market.

 

 

(Not including Doug Schmell, who already told us the Metropolis promo was not strictly accurate before you mention this example.)

 

Don't even get me started on what I think of this ethical travesty.

 

Gene

 

 

Gene,

Where would this psychology develop from?A collector buys a book for X amount and then goes looking for other books.His Wizard or Overstreet isn't going to tell him his books have declined,he won't be tracking the book on ebay if he is a collector.

The people who will see the decline in value would be the subscribers to such things as GPA or CBG,a very small sampling of the overall market.It is quite concievable that an individual could go for months or longer buying books at shows or off ebay before he realized there was an overall market decline.Where would the herd gather,most collectors are loners.My thoughts are-no herd, no stampede.

It's not like you would pick up your morning paper and see that SA books have declined 33% so you call your broker and dump your holdings.Most collectors,if they saw a major dealer dumping SA books at 33% off,would buy.

It might be unethical, but the very lack of regulation may be the thing that prevents a market crash,collection,implosion or whichever term you choose to use.

[Aman619]

I apologize if you construed my comments as snide, as this is not how they were intended.

 

Apology accepted. I'm all for constructive debate here on the Boards.

 

 

Gene, this is a comparison you always make in order to support your ideas but does this actually have ANY validity ? You are comparing apples and oranges. The largest factor across markets as a whole is undoubtedly the economy

 

This is where the apples & oranges argument falls apart. The largest factor across markets is not the economy. It is psychology. A company announces great earnings but its stock price tanks. Happens all the time - why? Terrorists attack and bring down the Twin Towers - a big, market-shaking move, right? I defy anybody to look at a chart of the S&P 500 without the dates attached and show me where 9/11/01 shows up on the chart. You won't even see it, because the market psychology was already so negative by then.

 

If anything, I would say my analysis is even more relevant to comic books than the stock market. Why? Because stocks and bonds generate underlying cash flows, so there are "no-arbitrage" boundaries to how low they can go. Comics are not bounded on either the upside or the downside - their prices are driven solely by the psychology of the market. Right now, after 40 years of rising prices and an explosion in prices in recent years, most collectors literally believe prices on many books to be bulletproof. Sure things. Can't miss opportunities. That type of mentality has eventually spelled trouble in EVERY market.

 

 

(Not including Doug Schmell, who already told us the Metropolis promo was not strictly accurate before you mention this example.)

 

Don't even get me started on what I think of this ethical travesty.

 

Gene

 

 

Gene,

Where would this psychology develop from?A collector buys a book for X amount and then goes looking for other books.His Wizard or Overstreet isn't going to tell him his books have declined,he won't be tracking the book on ebay if he is a collector.

The people who will see the decline in value would be the subscribers to such things as GPA or CBG,a very small sampling of the overall market.It is quite concievable that an individual could go for months or longer buying books at shows or off ebay before he realized there was an overall market decline.Where would the herd gather,most collectors are loners.My thoughts are-no herd, no stampede.

It's not like you would pick up your morning paper and see that SA books have declined 33% so you call your broker and dump your holdings.Most collectors,if they saw a major dealer dumping SA books at 33% off,would buy.

It might be unethical, but the very lack of regulation may be the thing that prevents a market crash,collection,implosion or whichever term you choose to use.

 

thats a remarkable observation. Id been mulling over ways that the comics "bubble market" doe snot automatically become a mirror image of the stock market and tulip market, and this is a very valid but subtle difference.

[comicwiz]

Obviously pressing the book the first time DID NOT get a PLOD, therefore, it is reasonable to assume that a professional could at least repress the book again into the same shape, without getting a PLOD.

 

The dings that have been created by the book being shipped ten times COULD NOT be restored WITHOUT getting a PLOD.

 

To each their own I guess; but my point was that I consider it absurd to expect that anyone should pay NM or NM+ premiums only to discover they have to spend more money to press the comic to keep it in the condition for which the comic was originally purchased.

 

 

[sfilosa]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Obviously pressing the book the first time DID NOT get a PLOD, therefore, it is reasonable to assume that a professional could at least repress the book again into the same shape, without getting a PLOD.

 

The dings that have been created by the book being shipped ten times COULD NOT be restored WITHOUT getting a PLOD.

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

To each their own I guess; but my point was that I consider it absurd to expect that anyone should pay NM or NM+ premiums only to discover they have to spend more money to press the comic to keep it in the condition for which the comic was originally purchased.

 

A very valid point.

 

But grading is subjective anyway, so what's to say that today's 9.4 will still be considered a 9.4 ten years from now.

 

Obviously, there are still risk, even with CGC books. But it sure beats the risk present before CGC.