Random FF Stat 0

[WernerVonDoom]

Umm...Greggy's #49 9.6 sold for around 3 thousand, and is on Comiclink for 4500 right now. How high does it have to get?

 

I'm sure there are/were many people just like me who had two high grade copies of 48 and no 49 or 50.

 

I'm positive the ratio of 49s to 48s will stay about the same.

[sfilosa]

As soon as the price on 49 starts rising to anywhere close to 48 prices, guess what? There will be about 91 9.4 or better copies in no time flat. It's not a scarce book, folks!

 

 

I assume you are joking.

 

Let see: using your logic #44 has 46 9.4 copies and #45 (first Inhumans) has 12 9.4 copies. So I guess once #45 price starts to increase to the same price as #44, more 9.4 copies will be graded.

 

Wait, #45 is a Key and already worth a heck of a lot more than #44. How can this be? Unless, wait I'm getting a brainstorm, maybe, just maybe, the SUPPLY of CGC high-grade copies is not just a function of PRICE, but a function of the ACTUAL SUPPLY of high-grade issues (taking into account total print distribution, warehouse copies, etc.) Yeah, that's the ticket.

[greggy]

Umm...Greggy's #49 9.6 sold for around 3 thousand, and is on Comiclink for 4500 right now. How high does it have to get?

 

I'm sure there are/were many people just like me who had two high grade copies of 48 and no 49 or 50.

 

I'm positive the ratio of 49s to 48s will stay about the same.

I sold it for $3,217 and another 9.6 copy sold for $4,600 including the juice in the Heritage auction the month after. That's why Josh priced it at $4,600 for the longest time.

[COI]

As soon as the price on 49 starts rising to anywhere close to 48 prices, guess what? There will be about 91 9.4 or better copies in no time flat. It's not a scarce book, folks!

 

Not again!

 

This was discussed on another thread, and Timely made a very similar(and equally inaccurate) comment.

 

An FF #49 in CGC 9.4 will sell for as much, maybe even more than an FF #48 in 9.4. And a 49 9.6 has beaten the price of a 48 in 9.6 by quite a significant margin. It is well established that guide is irrelevant and does not apply to slabbed 9.4+ books for this exact reason. So this whole theory that the supply for FF 48 and 49 are the same, and there's no incentive to slab #49's, simply dosen't make sense. I'm not saying there won't be more 49's showing up in 9.4+, but it will never be anywhere near the supply of 48's.

 

Next you're going to say the same for #50, but there has not been a 9.4+ #50 on the open market that I've seen. And I would predict that a #50 in 9.4 would bring in more than both 48 and 49.

 

 

[LordRahl]

Well I'll tell you what. Since 49 is not a scarce book, find me 5 copies in 9.4 and I'll pay you 9.4 FF 48 price for all 5. How's that sound?

[tth2]

As soon as the price on 49 starts rising to anywhere close to 48 prices, guess what? There will be about 91 9.4 or better copies in no time flat. It's not a scarce book, folks!

 

Not again!

 

This was discussed on another thread, and Timely made a very similar(and equally inaccurate) comment.

 

An FF #49 in CGC 9.4 will sell for as much, maybe even more than an FF #48 in 9.4. And a 49 9.6 has beaten the price of a 48 in 9.6 by quite a significant margin. It is well established that guide is irrelevant and does not apply to slabbed 9.4+ books for this exact reason. So this whole theory that the supply for FF 48 and 49 are the same, and there's no incentive to slab #49's, simply dosen't make sense. I'm not saying there won't be more 49's showing up in 9.4+, but it will never be anywhere near the supply of 48's.

 

Next you're going to say the same for #50, but there has not been a 9.4+ #50 on the open market that I've seen. And I would predict that a #50 in 9.4 would bring in more than both 48 and 49.

 

 

Okay, the FF 49 lobby clearly has no hesitation about expressing their opinion on this point. So if I understand what you're all saying, it's actually the FF 48 that's the anomaly, and the 49 and 50 numbers actually represent the norm? Unless you can tell me that FF 48 is a "warehouse find" issue like ASM 33, I find this hard to believe. I mean we're talking mid-run of FF and it's 1966, so buying patterns of FF and collecting patterns in general were pretty well established and I don't think anyone would have grasped the importance of the introduction of Silver Surfer and Galactus at the time (at least not to the point that they would have stocked up on WAY more copies of 48 than any of the surrounding issues).

 

Admittedly, I did exaggerate in my initial response, because on further reflection 91 9.4 or better copies of any silver age book is a helluva lot, so probably there won't be quite that many 49s and 50s out there. But a 9X or 10X differential? If not price (the demand side of the equation), what could account for such a huge disparity in the supply?

 

 

[fantastic_four]

Unless you can tell me that FF 48 is a "warehouse find" issue like ASM 33, I find this hard to believe.

 

It was part of the Mile High 2 warehouse find. I saw someone auctioning a copy with one of the MH2 certificates sometime last year.

[Murph]

Well, one of the rarest ASMs in 9.4 is 63. Know what it's surrounded by? The two most common books. 64 and 62. So just because one book in a run is really common, it doesn't mean that every book around it HAS to be equally or more common.

 

Brian

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Next you're going to say the same for #50, but there has not been a 9.4+ #50 on the open market that I've seen.

 

The only one that comes to mind is the a Pac Coast copy I saw on Bob's website a little over a year ago. Back then, the $1,600 price tag shocked me, but it was gone within a heartbeat.

[tth2]

Unless you can tell me that FF 48 is a "warehouse find" issue like ASM 33, I find this hard to believe.

 

It was part of the Mile High 2 warehouse find. I saw someone auctioning a copy with one of the MH2 certificates sometime last year.

 

Okay, there's the answer, and I stand corrected, sort of. 49 will not be as common as 48, but primarily because 48 is really really unbelievably common. Too bad for all the suckers who paid big bucks for that one. But I still maintain that 49's not scarce in high grade. No post-1964 Marvel is.

[awe4one]

Unless you can tell me that FF 48 is a "warehouse find" issue like ASM 33, I find this hard to believe.

 

It was part of the Mile High 2 warehouse find. I saw someone auctioning a copy with one of the MH2 certificates sometime last year.

 

Okay, there's the answer, and I stand corrected, sort of. 49 will not be as common as 48, but primarily because 48 is really really unbelievably common. Too bad for all the suckers who paid big bucks for that one. But I still maintain that 49's not scarce in high grade. No post-1964 Marvel is.

 

But if #48 was a MH2, then wouldn't #49 also be? I understood (maybe incorrectly) that oldest issue on......the collection pretty much had consecutive copies of every issue up.

 

Unless of course FF #49 sold out on the newsstand and no remainder copies were left. I find this highly unlikely though.....

 

Jim

[tth2]

Well, one of the rarest ASMs in 9.4 is 63. Know what it's surrounded by? The two most common books. 64 and 62. So just because one book in a run is really common, it doesn't mean that every book around it HAS to be equally or more common.

 

Brian

 

Good point. But perhaps it is 64 and 62 that are the anomalies, which magnifies the seeming rarity of 63? If you look at 61 and 65, their variation with 63 could be explained as a matter of statistical probability. Or maybe the dude who hoards Iron Man/Submariners is also hoarding ASM 63s?

 

Speaking of whom, did no one else think it was interesting that despite the fact that someone has been vacuuming up every single copy of that book, that it's still priced at just $185 in the Guide? I've often wondered whether it's possible to manipulate the price of a book by cornering the supply, but this indicates it would take an ungodly amount of copies to do so. What's going to happen to the price of that book when the guy starts unloading them?

[awe4one]

Speaking of whom, did no one else think it was interesting that despite the fact that someone has been vacuuming up every single copy of that book, that it's still priced at just $185 in the Guide? I've often wondered whether it's possible to manipulate the price of a book by cornering the supply, but this indicates it would take an ungodly amount of copies to do so. What's going to happen to the price of that book when the guy starts unloading them?

 

Well I can think of two reasons:

 

The book isn't really in demand.

 

The book is still easily found in high grade in spite of the copies taken out of circulation. It was a MH2 book so there could be thousands of nice copies out there.

 

If they were unloaded in mass locally? Sure there'd be an impact. If they were sold individually on eBay by a single seller though, it would start getting lower prices as the supply became evident to bidders.

 

Jim

[COI]

But I still maintain that 49's not scarce in high grade. No post-1964 Marvel is.

 

Well, that's just semantics, really. FF 49 may not be scarce in the general sense of the word, but we're saying it's scarce relative to FF #48.

 

Good point. But perhaps it is 64 and 62 that are the anomalies, which magnifies the seeming rarity of 63?

 

No. #63 is not just uncommon in 9.4+ when compared to the very common 64 or #62, but it's scarce for a mid/late 60's ASM in general. I would say it's the scarcest issue(in 9.4+) from #32 up, right along side issue #52. ASM is the one title I pay most attention to, both in terms of the availability of ungraded copies and CGC graded copies, and #63 in a genuinely tough book to find in the super high grade ranges. And not just a little tougher, but disproportionately tougher than most ASM's from around 1966, onwards. There's a 9.4 on Ebay now, but that's just a coincidence. And it's already commanding much more than the average ASM 9.4 in that time period.

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

The book is still easily found in high grade in spite of the copies taken out of circulation. It was a MH2 book so there could be thousands of nice copies out there.

 

I would venture this to be very true...FF 48 is the most populous Marvel Silver Key (pre-1968..the Iron Man # 1/Cap # 100 era) in VF/NM or better. I wouldn't doubt that there are 5-10 high grade raw copies for every one that has shown up on the CGC census. (C'mon....34 9.6s?!?....over 180 submitted in Universal 9.0 or better).

 

I think over the next ten years, this book is due for a major price adjustment downwards; the outrageous census figures and steadily decreasing popularity of the Surfer character are sure to doom it.

[Peter_Parker59]

Regarding ASM #63 : I'm surprised nobody mentioned the color of the cover.

 

It's a black cover, with a stark white beam.

 

Tough to avoid creases on the black part and yellowing on the white part as the same time.

 

Sure there are almost two other ASM covers in the #60's which are predominantly black, but the color of #63 must certainly account for something in its scarcity in HG

 

Just my humble opinion

[valiantman]

Statistically, ASM #63 and ASM #58 are similar in regards to CGC census proportions.

Does anyone know why those two books might be so similar?

(Yes, I know that more copies of #58 have been graded...

but the difficulty in finding 9.4 or better -- proportionately-- is almost identical,

I would even say #58 is slightly tougher in high grade...)

[WernerVonDoom]

I added issues up to 200, including variants.

 

0 Copies: 169v, 170v, 172v, 183v, 184v, 185v, 186v, 187v

1 Copy: #3, 18, 173v

2 Copies: #6, 7, 11, 13, 110v, 171v, 187,

3 Copies: #2, 5, 12, 17, 29, 103

4 Copies: #1, 10, 34, 37, 51, 117, 124, 137, 179, 189,

5 Copies: #8, 23, 25, 32, 120, 129, 163, 185, 192

6 Copies: #4, 15, 16, 21, 22, 27, 30, 39, 40, 101, 115, 125, 127, 138, 176, 186, 193, 196, 198, 199

7 Copies: #9, 19, 20, 31, 42, 50, 119, 180, 184, 190, 191, 194

8 Copies: #36, 56, 104, 132, 136, 143, 170, 177, 181, 197

9 Copies: #24, 43, 79, 107, 109, 116, 118, 130, 134, 139, 141, 152, 162, 168, 188

10 Copies: #49, 66, 135, 161, 164, 169, 174

11 Copies: #26, 28, 33, 65, 90, 105, 113, 122, 133, 142, 147, 151, 182, 195

12 Copies: #14, 38, 45, 70, 123, 126, 128, 155, 178

13 Copies: #94, 114, 144, 153, 160, 172

14 Copies: #58, 63, 102, 106, 140, 148, 154, 167, 173, 175, 183

15 Copies: #62, 80, 95, 99, 110, 112, 145, 159, 171

16 Copies: #54, 67, 69, 71, 74, 85, 87, 89, 131, 165

17 Copies: #35, 53, 75, 88, 93, 111, 149, 157

18 Copies: #52, 55, 81, 92, 96, 121, 158

20 Copies: #57, 83, 91, 98, 156, 200

21 Copies: #47, 68, 146

22 Copies: #41, 72, 84, 150

23 Copies: #77, 86, 97, 166

24 Copies: #108

25 Copies: #61

26 Copies: #82

27 Copies: #46

29 Copies: #64

30 Copies: #60, 73, 76

33 Copies: #100

34 Copies: #78

46 Copies: #44

66 Copies: #59

91 Copies: #48

 

[Calamerica]

This is another good Thread. Very impressed here, and I don't impress easily.

 

The IronMan/Subby's? There HAS been significant price movements in the last 3 years - I started hoarding them 4 years ago. Have sold some of them. I do have some ASM's but only a few # 63. I like # 62 as a personal favorite as Medusa on the cover is, to me, one of the greatest ASM covers of all time. It is also the first one signed by Romita. The # 62, IMO, very hard to get in ultra-high grade because of the white background. I have not hoarded any particular ASM's. Other titles, maybe, but not ASM.

 

I just like the IM/S...I feel confident that the will increase in value. I won't get rid of them all, just some of them. I still grab up the real high-grades when I can.

 

CAL

[Murph]

ASM 62 is the 2nd most common silver age ASM in high grade. ASM 64 is the most common. So it's not hard to get

 

Brian