Heritage August Auction

[Bronty]

stepped down their game now that they have won a few books and tapped themselves out

[Silver Surfer]

stepped down their game now that they have won a few books and tapped themselves out

 

Yeah I want to believe that but it doesn't make a lot of sense considering the depth of Keller's collection. You'd think he would have been out bid on a bunch of them if there was that must interest in them. Especially since "they" drove them up to record prices.

[Bullet123]

Once again, the auction is loaded with Gary Keller books. Was the whole high end GA market of 2005-2008 just an illusion caused by the purchases of one crazed buyer?

 

His purchases were just so massive and all pervasive that it`s getting to the point where I don`t think we`re in a GA correction at all. Rather, we`re now just where prices always should have been but for one person`s warping of the time-space continuum.

 

One thing`s for sure, we`re seeing one of the great redistributions of wealth in the history of comic books. Sellers benefited big time from his purchases, and now buyers are benefiting from his sales.

 

I just feel bad for the few people who managed to beat him out for books during his buying period because they really had to pay over the odds.

 

This whole situation is very strange. I wonder who the second person(s) were who were driving these prices up to those levels...he didn't do it all by himself, presumably? I would be very curious to hear Gary Keller's thoughts on N.P. Gresham

 

Considering the amount of money he spent on books and the quality of them I really find it hard to believe that he didn't have prices run up on him. Where are all these underbidders now?

 

I was underbidder on some of these books. I did buy them the second go round but I am in a different position today than I was 2,3,5 years ago both in what I am pursuing and what I am spending. I also lost interest in certain runs like Adventure because the prices were too rich for me then and I found other books to pique my interest

[tth2]

stepped down their game now that they have won a few books and tapped themselves out

 

Yeah I want to believe that but it doesn't make a lot of sense considering the depth of Keller's collection. You'd think he would have been out bid on a bunch of them if there was that must interest in them. Especially since "they" drove them up to record prices.

It's not necessarily so much where is the underbidder but whether there is a new underbidder to drive up the original underbidder.

 

In other words, suppose in the original auction that Keller won, he won with a $20K bid and the underbidder was at $19K. And suppose that there was no one even close to them, with the next highest bidder being at $10K.

 

Now fast forward to the current Keller Liquidation Sales, and the original underbidder now matches his original max bid of $19K. And let's say that the previous next highest bidder is still the only other player in town, and puts in his max bid of $10K again, which means the original underbidder would win at $11K (the increments probably aren't right, but you catch my drift).

 

So because of the way bidding can work, the exact same bids could've been put in this time around by the previous underbidders and the result would be radically different.

 

Not saying that there wasn't some running up of Keller, or that bidders in the most recent auctions haven't pulled back because of different comic market/financial market circumstances, but it's also possible that results are much worse because of the way the bidding mechanism works.

[Flash105]

bullet123- very true... I just get uncomfortable when the market is so volatile that one collector can affect the prices so much. As a true collector, I want prices to see a slow growth- or- (big gasp) no growth! I can wait the 10+ yrs it takes for the books to turn up if this happens. If I ever sell... (big if) I guess I'd want the flip side of that coin. I love when I see books going for cheaper than expected even if it means my books have lost a little value. I guess only a collector who is in the "building phase" of his collection likes that to occur...

 

I'd rather wait for the primo stuff to trickle out in a few years, than dig deep into the pockets to compete now all at once.

 

When there is only 1-2 high grade copies of an issue and high demand, volatility is going to be high. There is a great market for Hulk 181, X-Men 94, and GL 76. Everyone knows what a 9.0,9.2,9.4 should sell for. There is no market data for Tec 27 in high grade. Everytime one comes to auction, the estimates vary wildly and the results are not predictable.

[Bronty]

stepped down their game now that they have won a few books and tapped themselves out

 

Yeah I want to believe that but it doesn't make a lot of sense considering the depth of Keller's collection. You'd think he would have been out bid on a bunch of them if there was that must interest in them. Especially since "they" drove them up to record prices.

It's not necessarily so much where is the underbidder but whether there is a new underbidder to drive up the original underbidder.

 

In other words, suppose in the original auction that Keller won, he won with a $20K bid and the underbidder was at $19K. And suppose that there was no one even close to them, with the next highest bidder being at $10K.

 

Now fast forward to the current Keller Liquidation Sales, and the original underbidder now matches his original max bid of $19K. And let's say that the previous next highest bidder is still the only other player in town, and puts in his max bid of $10K again, which means the original underbidder would win at $11K (the increments probably aren't right, but you catch my drift).

 

So because of the way bidding can work, the exact same bids could've been put in this time around by the previous underbidders and the result would be radically different.

 

Not saying that there wasn't some running up of Keller, or that bidders in the most recent auctions haven't pulled back because of different comic market/financial market circumstances, but it's also possible that results are much worse because of the way the bidding mechanism works.

 

that's a really good analysis

[Dark Knight]

stepped down their game now that they have won a few books and tapped themselves out

 

Yeah I want to believe that but it doesn't make a lot of sense considering the depth of Keller's collection. You'd think he would have been out bid on a bunch of them if there was that must interest in them. Especially since "they" drove them up to record prices.

It's not necessarily so much where is the underbidder but whether there is a new underbidder to drive up the original underbidder.

 

In other words, suppose in the original auction that Keller won, he won with a $20K bid and the underbidder was at $19K. And suppose that there was no one even close to them, with the next highest bidder being at $10K.

 

Now fast forward to the current Keller Liquidation Sales, and the original underbidder now matches his original max bid of $19K. And let's say that the previous next highest bidder is still the only other player in town, and puts in his max bid of $10K again, which means the original underbidder would win at $11K (the increments probably aren't right, but you catch my drift).

 

So because of the way bidding can work, the exact same bids could've been put in this time around by the previous underbidders and the result would be radically different.

 

Not saying that there wasn't some running up of Keller, or that bidders in the most recent auctions haven't pulled back because of different comic market/financial market circumstances, but it's also possible that results are much worse because of the way the bidding mechanism works.

 

that's a really good analysis

 

(thumbs u I think that is the best possible scenario. In other words.. It only takes two to tango

[tth2]

stepped down their game now that they have won a few books and tapped themselves out

 

Yeah I want to believe that but it doesn't make a lot of sense considering the depth of Keller's collection. You'd think he would have been out bid on a bunch of them if there was that must interest in them. Especially since "they" drove them up to record prices.

It's not necessarily so much where is the underbidder but whether there is a new underbidder to drive up the original underbidder.

 

In other words, suppose in the original auction that Keller won, he won with a $20K bid and the underbidder was at $19K. And suppose that there was no one even close to them, with the next highest bidder being at $10K.

 

Now fast forward to the current Keller Liquidation Sales, and the original underbidder now matches his original max bid of $19K. And let's say that the previous next highest bidder is still the only other player in town, and puts in his max bid of $10K again, which means the original underbidder would win at $11K (the increments probably aren't right, but you catch my drift).

 

So because of the way bidding can work, the exact same bids could've been put in this time around by the previous underbidders and the result would be radically different.

 

Not saying that there wasn't some running up of Keller, or that bidders in the most recent auctions haven't pulled back because of different comic market/financial market circumstances, but it's also possible that results are much worse because of the way the bidding mechanism works.

 

that's a really good analysis

 

(thumbs u I think that is the best possible scenario. In other words.. It only takes two to tango

Yes, and two crazed bidders can completely distort the picture, particularly with auction sites like Heritage where the bidding process is completely opaque.

[Dark Knight]

stepped down their game now that they have won a few books and tapped themselves out

 

Yeah I want to believe that but it doesn't make a lot of sense considering the depth of Keller's collection. You'd think he would have been out bid on a bunch of them if there was that must interest in them. Especially since "they" drove them up to record prices.

It's not necessarily so much where is the underbidder but whether there is a new underbidder to drive up the original underbidder.

 

In other words, suppose in the original auction that Keller won, he won with a $20K bid and the underbidder was at $19K. And suppose that there was no one even close to them, with the next highest bidder being at $10K.

 

Now fast forward to the current Keller Liquidation Sales, and the original underbidder now matches his original max bid of $19K. And let's say that the previous next highest bidder is still the only other player in town, and puts in his max bid of $10K again, which means the original underbidder would win at $11K (the increments probably aren't right, but you catch my drift).

 

So because of the way bidding can work, the exact same bids could've been put in this time around by the previous underbidders and the result would be radically different.

 

Not saying that there wasn't some running up of Keller, or that bidders in the most recent auctions haven't pulled back because of different comic market/financial market circumstances, but it's also possible that results are much worse because of the way the bidding mechanism works.

 

that's a really good analysis

 

(thumbs u I think that is the best possible scenario. In other words.. It only takes two to tango

Yes, and two crazed bidders can completely distort the picture, particularly with auction sites like Heritage where the bidding process is completely opaque.

 

Same with Comiclink and other auction houses

[drbanner]

There also seem to be many big GA books that can't find a home, bouncing around from dealer to dealer and showing up again and again and the over-exposure just kills the demand.

 

As for the comment that it's kinda scary the effect that one buyer can have on prices, imagine if one or two dealers decided to get out as the prices of these books stabilize (or as we're seeing now, decline). Also, it just doesn't take that much $$ to monopolize the market for certain specific/key books, and if that dealer decides to get out...it's the Hunt Brothers all over again!

 

Metropolis alone could probably prop up prices for a while, but how many times can dealers sell to each other before the last guy in line is left holding the hot potato?

[tth2]

There also seem to be many big GA books that can't find a home, bouncing around from dealer to dealer and showing up again and again and the over-exposure just kills the demand.

 

As for the comment that it's kinda scary the effect that one buyer can have on prices, imagine if one or two dealers decided to get out as the prices of these books stabilize (or as we're seeing now, decline). Also, it just doesn't take that much $$ to monopolize the market for certain specific/key books, and if that dealer decides to get out...it's the Hunt Brothers all over again!

 

Metropolis alone could probably prop up prices for a while, but how many times can dealers sell to each other before the last guy in line is left holding the hot potato?

Actually, hasn't that happened and isn't it happening right now? Heritage to me has seemed like one big recycling bin for the past 4-5 years now. There seems to be so little in their auctions of recent years that hasn't been sold by them before.

 

And then some of the fresh runs that were sold by them over the past few years, such as the MH runs of GL, Flash, More Fun, Adventure, etc., etc., turned out to have big chunks bought by Keller, which are now being sold at losses in some case exceeding 50%.

 

Before that, JP turned out to be the buyer in a lot of splashy record-setting sales during the earlier part of this decade, and then dumped a lot at a loss.

 

And yet the hobby seems to be shrugging it off for the most part. Either it's more resilient than one might have expected at the "real" price or there's just a lot of denial going on.

[lou_fine]

And then some of the fresh runs that were sold by them over the past few years, such as the MH runs of GL, Flash, More Fun, Adventure, etc., etc., turned out to have big chunks bought by Keller, which are now being sold at losses in some case exceeding 50%.

 

Before that, JP turned out to be the buyer in a lot of splashy record-setting sales during the earlier part of this decade, and then dumped a lot at a loss.

 

 

Sounds as though Keller is the new JP, but only from a much more broad-based approach.

 

Isn't Keller the guy that always gives advice about how to make money in a falling real estate market? I guess he's not able to transfer this knowledge over to the comics market.

[1koko]

just to add something to tth2's underbidder analysis:

 

Let's say that the underbidder only wanted to win 1 church copy in the run.

 

Keller would massively overpay for the run by beating the underbidder continuously as an early win by the underbidder would have removed him from the competition and left the next highest underbidder with 10k to spend.

[drbanner]

There also seem to be many big GA books that can't find a home, bouncing around from dealer to dealer and showing up again and again and the over-exposure just kills the demand.

 

As for the comment that it's kinda scary the effect that one buyer can have on prices, imagine if one or two dealers decided to get out as the prices of these books stabilize (or as we're seeing now, decline). Also, it just doesn't take that much $$ to monopolize the market for certain specific/key books, and if that dealer decides to get out...it's the Hunt Brothers all over again!

 

Metropolis alone could probably prop up prices for a while, but how many times can dealers sell to each other before the last guy in line is left holding the hot potato?

Actually, hasn't that happened and isn't it happening right now? Heritage to me has seemed like one big recycling bin for the past 4-5 years now. There seems to be so little in their auctions of recent years that hasn't been sold by them before.

 

And then some of the fresh runs that were sold by them over the past few years, such as the MH runs of GL, Flash, More Fun, Adventure, etc., etc., turned out to have big chunks bought by Keller, which are now being sold at losses in some case exceeding 50%.

 

Before that, JP turned out to be the buyer in a lot of splashy record-setting sales during the earlier part of this decade, and then dumped a lot at a loss.

 

And yet the hobby seems to be shrugging it off for the most part. Either it's more resilient than one might have expected at the "real" price or there's just a lot of denial going on.

 

Yep, I agree with you that it is happening to some extent, and could play out even more depending on how these books hold up in this auction. (thumbs u

[stagedoorjohnny]

 

Good to have you back! (thumbs u

[tth2]

Isn't Keller the guy that always gives advice about how to make money in a falling real estate market? I guess he's not able to transfer this knowledge over to the comics market.

Is that who he is? I've been wondering what his story is. I tried to google him, but there are about a million Gary Kellers in the world.

[1962]

Isn't Keller the guy that always gives advice about how to make money in a falling real estate market? I guess he's not able to transfer this knowledge over to the comics market.

Is that who he is? I've been wondering what his story is. I tried to google him, but there are about a million Gary Kellers in the world.

 

Well if Keller is heavily involved in real estate and considering how that market has imploded the last couple of years, it kind of makes sense why he might be in the unfortunate position of having to liquidate his Church runs even though he has owned them for only a short period of time.

[lou_fine]

Isn't Keller the guy that always gives advice about how to make money in a falling real estate market? I guess he's not able to transfer this knowledge over to the comics market.

Is that who he is? I've been wondering what his story is. I tried to google him, but there are about a million Gary Kellers in the world.

 

Well if Keller is heavily involved in real estate and considering how that market has imploded the last couple of years, it kind of makes sense why he might be in the unfortunate position of having to liquidate his Church runs even though he has owned them for only a short period of time.

 

I am not acutally sure if he is the real estate guy or not, hence the question mark at the end of my sentence.

 

Since he seems to be such a major impact player in the market, I thought for sure that you guys would have had the background info on him by now.

[greaterfool]

just to add something to tth2's underbidder analysis:

 

Let's say that the underbidder only wanted to win 1 church copy in the run.

 

Keller would massively overpay for the run by beating the underbidder continuously as an early win by the underbidder would have removed him from the competition and left the next highest underbidder with 10k to spend.

 

i think there was some punishment bidding driving those prices up too.

[tabcom]

One example of many . . . .