Do people have any limits?

[joe_collector]

My opinion is that most people are just plain "jealous" that either they don't have books to sell into the market or that they didn't buy them for their own collection when it was cheaper.

 

This philosophy permeates virtually all of your market comments, and makes me wonder if you really do believe this. I sincerely doubt that "most" collectors are jealous of the current high prices and are all fuming that they don't have X book.

 

Personally, I comment on these market threads because I am a longtime collector who's been through his fair share of market spikes and crashes, and I realize exactly what kind of effect this has on the hobby.

 

It is a virtual certainty that the current CGC market will correct itself, just as previous market spikes have come floating back to Earth. And in 8-10 years post-correction, we may have another rally, who knows?

 

What I worry about is these unsustainable, parabolic price increases leading to another era of low collector numbers, deflated prices, lost "investment dollars" and basically creating a real downer for true collectors.

 

We've all seen comic book depressions in the past, and I worry that this time around, the hobby may not be able to fully recover.

[joe_collector]

Being as you want to keep playing your "games", see that ugly "Rant " thread. Do I need to bring that up??? Who struck first and often??? People don't forget. Don't insult me or others further by your "other Thread bull". And don't drag others in this, you started this, but apparently cannot take the heat. For shame!

 

You seem to be of the brainless, moronic school of thought that if someone honks their horn at you while driving, you can mow down 50 school children, shoot the driver with an Uzi, steal his wallet, burn his house down, and still feel justified that you are correct... because that honked first.

 

It doesn't work like that in the real world, and we're all judged by each and every one of our actions.

[Calamerica]

Stop the hyperbole. Stop your trash talk. Bottom line: You insulted me on this Public Forum and I fire back here on this same forum WITHOUT THE NAME-CALLING. And I don't need others to agree with me here on this. You are making it like I am doing something over and above for whatever reason you THINK( if you can even do THAT) you can pin on me.

 

You opened the can of rocks and they are being rolled back at you. Now you are critisizing the one rolling the rocks back? The pot calling the kettle black? Most of us see this right away.

 

Go somewhere else and play your "games". The insulting of our intelligence speaks volumes about you and WHY an entire Thread about YOU got started in the first place. Please go.

[joe_collector]

You opened the can of rocks and they are being rolled back at you. Now you are critisizing the one rolling the rocks back?

 

Not at all, and I welcome the battle to come.

[goldust40]

I'm in a quandary about this. The previous sustained period of price increases (1989 - 1995) was followed by a trough due to many disillusioned collectors leaving the market due to dissatisfaction concerning undisclosed resto and overgrading on books by dealers, plus a general loss of momentum.

 

This "trough" period (1995 - 1999) was the only time in the hobby where there was a bear market coupled with stricter grading (as opposed to the looser grading that existed in the 1980s).

 

Prices in this period did not go down, but plateaud. NM books were still pricey (if you could find them), but there was no real "boom and bust" scenario due to lack of demand - more a feeling that it was a buyers' market, and that another upward surge was on the horizon. As I recall, prices in OS went down - but only on the low and mid grades.

 

JC, I'd say that if there was a price spike this time according to your projection it would not be history repeating itself. This period of growth has seen rises that I would've considered unthinkable 5 years ago - if there was a bust, it would be severe, and totally different to what has gone before. Too many factors (and interests) have been added to the mix. But the spike may not happen just yet......

[Murph]

Since this seems to have become a catch-all thread. I had a question for you Goldust. I recently looked over your site, and was astonished by the prices on the CGC material. Most of it is extremely high priced in USD. I was just curious if comics are priced more expensive over there and thus the higher prices. I'm assuming they're so high due to the poor standing of the dollar against the GBP..?

 

Brian

[joe_collector]

Prices in this period did not go down, but plateaud.

 

Actually there was a serious crash, but few remember it.

 

For example, I can remember in the early 90's, a comic like Amazing Spider-man 129 hitting $200 for a F/VF and upwards of $500, in the heat of speculation, for a NM copy.

 

At around 96-98, you could buy a VF for $20 and a NM for under $50. That's real-world pricing, and far more compelling than the bizarro world of Overstreet.

 

It also wasn't because of "undisclosed resto" or "loose grading" but the inability of speculators to maintain their "hot potato" act, and buyers just saying no. Once that happens, speculator flight erupts and values plummet.

 

I firmly believe there is a "real world" amount that each comic book is worth, discounting short-term influences like speculation and investment. That amount is well below what is being paid for many CGC comics, and once the insanity cools off, I guarantee prices will deflate accordingly.

 

The only question is when.

[Mushroom]

The only question is when.

 

No Joe......according to you it will be this year. Don't go soft on us.

[joe_collector]

No Joe......according to you it will be this year. Don't go soft on us.

 

That was to get banner all riled up, and it worked pretty well.

 

In all seriousness, there is approximately a 10-year gap between each crash, which would put it at 2005, but this is simply an observation, and I'm not getting hedged into a number.

 

Way too many wildcards this time out, which could extend it even further.

 

Like I said, it's really a question of WHEN the speculators get burned by their "hot potatoes", and not IF. No one knows the exact date.

[goldust40]

Prices in this period did not go down, but plateaud.

 

Actually there was a serious crash, but few remember it.

 

For example, I can remember in the early 90's, a comic like Amazing Spider-man 129 hitting $200 for a F/VF and upwards of $500, in the heat of speculation, for a NM copy.

 

At around 96-98, you could buy a VF for $20 and a NM for under $50. That's real-world pricing, and far more compelling than the bizarro world of Overstreet.

 

It also wasn't because of "undisclosed resto" or "loose grading" but the inability of speculators to maintain their "hot potato" act, and buyers just saying no. Once that happens, speculator flight erupts and values plummet.

 

I firmly believe there is a "real world" amount that each comic book is worth, discounting short-term influences like speculation and investment. That amount is well below what is being paid for many CGC comics, and once the insanity cools off, I guarantee prices will deflate accordingly.

 

The only question is when.

 

The speculator driven crash of the early 1990s centred mainly on hot new books with no long term potential. ASM 129 would be included in that equation as the Punisher titles were in heavy demand at that time.

 

Using ASM 129 as a sole example of extreme market deflation is a little specious as this was, and is, a book which has blown hot and cold more than any other. I agree that as recently as 1999 it was a dead book - but it is not representative of market forces and changes throughout the last decade. No other books, especially early S.A. Marvels, lost their value like that.

 

I agree that speculation, hype and short termism were responsible for market recessions in the past. But crash is too strong a word here if one looked at the market as a whole.

 

There may be "real world" prices, but the point I was trying to make is that before there were investors on the outside who had the option of walking away. Now there are too many major players and interests with too much riding on the market to allow the grass roots collectors, as it were, to exercise any power.

 

Prices may well cool off, possibly dramatically. But if they do it will be totally different to any previous scenario - that was the point I was trying to make.

 

Also price correction this time will be attritional. There has already been noticeable cooling off of prices in the 8.0 - 9.0 range. This may happen with 9.2s. Once you get to 9.4 and up, especially on the serious, big, G.A. and S.A. books, it's a different ball game - the Parrinos and Geppis of this world will strive to maintain the status quo for as long as they see fit - after all they will never be motivated sellers, and whoever has the gold..............

[BachelorOfComix]

You opened the can of rocks and they are being rolled back at you. Now you are critisizing the one rolling the rocks back?

 

Not at all, and I welcome the battle to come.

[drbanner]

That was to get banner all riled up, and it worked pretty well.

 

In all seriousness, there is approximately a 10-year gap between each crash, which would put it at 2005, but this is simply an observation, and I'm not getting hedged into a number.

 

Right Joe, according to you TGC has been just around the corner from the moment you arrived on these boards almost 2 years ago! You painted yourself in a corner with that stupid sig line for months on end last fall, and as you said in early January when I asked where TGC of 2004 was "...last time I checked, there are 12 months in a year...", so you still have 9 months for your life-long dream of the demise of the comic book market to happen. And I'm sure nothing would make you happier, which is pathetic...

[BachelorOfComix]

[joe_collector]

See what I mean?

 

That was to get banner all riled up, and it worked pretty well.

 

Right Joe, according to you TGC has been just around the corner from the moment you arrived on these boards almost 2 years ago! You painted yourself in a corner with that stupid sig line for months on end last fall, and as you said in early January when I asked where TGC of 2004 was "...last time I checked, there are 12 months in a year...", so you still have 9 months for your life-long dream of the demise of the comic book market to happen. And I'm sure nothing would make you happier, which is pathetic...

[BachelorOfComix]

[joe_collector]

Using ASM 129 as a sole example of extreme market deflation is a little specious

 

Sorry, but I really don't have the time or inclination to cover all the price spikes and crashes on the mid-90's. Virtually all mid-Silver and up issues were affected, with the Keys being hammered hard.

 

Once you get to 9.4 and up, especially on the serious, big, G.A. and S.A. books, it's a different ball game - the Parrinos and Geppis of this world will strive to maintain the status quo for as long as they see fit - after all they will never be motivated sellers, and whoever has the gold..............

 

Hey, I'm in total agreement that these issues will be mostly untouched, but tell me, what percentage of the market are 9.4 and up BIG SA and GA books?

 

0.000000001%?

[goldust40]

Since this seems to have become a catch-all thread. I had a question for you Goldust. I recently looked over your site, and was astonished by the prices on the CGC material. Most of it is extremely high priced in USD. I was just curious if comics are priced more expensive over there and thus the higher prices. I'm assuming they're so high due to the poor standing of the dollar against the GBP..?

 

Brian

 

Ahh.. I was only trying to be germane. In answer to your question, the CGC books do look highly priced to U.S. collectors due to the pound's strength against the dollar. However if I had an ASM 63 in CGC 9.6 I wouldn't hesitate on putting it on ebay U.S. rather than ebay U.K. The market for those type of books is always stronger in America.

 

It's difficult to say whether prices are more expensive in the U.K. as it's such a volatile market, but the U.K. economy is doing very well at present, so that could be a factor. Generally prices on certain books are higher due to their scarcity in this country, especially in grade.

 

If I was being candid, I'd say (despite selling a few of the less expensive CGC items to U.S. Forumites) that some of those higher priced CGC items on my site are going to need a correction. The crash starts here.....................

[goldust40]

Hey, I'm in total agreement that these issues will be mostly untouched, but tell me, what percentage of the market are 9.4 and up BIG SA and GA books?

 

0.000000001%?

 

I meant any book above $1500 or thereabouts. Anyway, I think 0.0000000001% is a slight exaggeration.

 

I'd like just a couple of examples of keys being hit hard in the mid '90s, if you've got the time. And not the White Mountain ASM 1, either. I need reportage of a general, across the board severe, drastic downward trend. Any documentation from any valid source would suffice.

 

As GPCove said, JC is back.......

[Murph]

It's a nice site. I couldn't find a way to see scans of any books though. Perhaps you should look into putting up scans for your CGC'd books.

And if you do decide to "correct" some of the prices, I'd be interested in a couple of those ASMs pending a scan.

 

Brian

[goldust40]

It's a nice site. I couldn't find a way to see scans of any books though. Perhaps you should look into putting up scans for your CGC'd books.

And if you do decide to "correct" some of the prices, I'd be interested in a couple of those ASMs pending a scan.

 

Brian

 

Thanks for the kudos Brian - one of the main problems that I have with the site is it needs to be jazzed up a bit, plus I need to put in, as you say, a lot of scans. No point saying you're a tough grader without the evidence (although I like to think I grade well!)

 

Once I've done a correction, I'll let you know. Lmk which ASM if you've got the chance.....