PRETTY BOOK OF THE DAY FF 11

[burntboy]

here's my FF # 11 just back from cgc at 9.4 with off-white pages. only one of 4 to be graded this high, so far. in the registry, i found that Captain Tripps and Ghost Town each had one and there's one unaccounted for.

 

not surprisingly, this has generated a good deal of interest.

 

other than the small ULC ding and the odd miscut that curves the back covers left edge, it's almost perfect...........

 

[ArAich]

Nice book... ...the thing I always found funny about that cover...how come Reed isn't getting burned by the Human Torch???...

[Red Hook]

Dammmmmm, Burnt! Another super addition to the BB pedigree! I love looking at these books, knowing that you bought them for pennies and off the rack!

[Red Hook]

Because the Torch instinctively reduces the heat intensity of any part of his body that touches another human.

 

Are you willing to go with that?

[burntboy]

Because the Torch instinctively reduces the heat intensity of any part of his body that touches another human.

 

Are you willing to go with that?

 

sounds about right to me

[FFB]

Beautiful books, Harry. I love looking at the BB pedigree!

 

Also, I always thought that the costumes they wore, being made of unstable molecules, provided insulation and protection from external elements.

 

And now we have a controversy.... Let the speculating begin!

 

Because the Torch instinctively reduces the heat intensity of any part of his body that touches another human.

 

Are you willing to go with that?

 

sounds about right to me

[fantastic_four]

only one of 4 to be graded this high, so far.

 

The supply of 9.4 or greater early Marvels is growing at a significantly increased rate lately. Before the current census update, there were only two copies of #11 graded at 9.4 (many of us should have a pretty good guess who owns the other newly-graded copy). Several other FF issues below #20 have also jumped up.

 

Several of the new high grade copies I know for certain are resubmits, and it's easy to see when you look at Valiantman's previous census totals. It appears to me that pressing and resubmitting is having its slow and steady impact on the supply of top-end books...

[Red Hook]

Which, should...ultimately bring the prices down, with a bigger supply?

[fantastic_four]

Which, should...ultimately bring the prices down, with a bigger supply?

 

Yea. Besides the Wall Street investment recommendations, this is exactly what the coinees said happened with coins in the late 1980s--undetectable cleaning and recarving eventually drove up the population counts and prices dropped as a result. It appears comics are heading in the same general direction, although it's hard to say if the market will end up being as similar due to the influence of the Internet.

 

Some of the economists around here (such as Gene) have hypothesized that greater market liquidity provided by a technology such as the Internet should QUICKEN the pace of a decline, which should mean that when we compare the comics market to the coin market at approximately the 5-year mark past the introduction of certification that comics should have run through their up-and-down-cycle more quickly...but the comics market I'm seeing is extremely strong going into CGC's fifth year and prices continue to climb. I've got to think there are more variables at work here than anyone has yet accounted for differentiating comics in 2004 from coins in 1989.

[drbanner]

...but the comics market I'm seeing is extremely strong going into CGC's fifth year and prices continue to climb. I've got to think there are more variables at work here than anyone has yet accounted for differentiating comics in 2004 from coins in 1989.

 

Can I, once again, bring up the simple fact that the underlying framework/institutions that support our hobby today are much different (i.e.,. the 'net opens up the market to hundreds or thousands more potential buyers than would have been involved back then) than they were 10-15 years ago, or will I get yelled at again and given a lecture on the medieval Holland tulip market?

[Red Hook]

So you are saying that because of the vaster potential market created by Ebay and internet sales in general, prices might not be as volatile?

 

Also, would you just say, in general that the market for comics as collectibles is larger than for the coinees?

[delekkerste]

Some of the economists around here (such as Gene) have hypothesized that greater market liquidity provided by a technology such as the Internet should QUICKEN the pace of a decline, which should mean that when we compare the comics market to the coin market at approximately the 5-year mark past the introduction of certification that comics should have run through their up-and-down-cycle more quickly...but the comics market I'm seeing is extremely strong going into CGC's fifth year and prices continue to climb. I've got to think there are more variables at work here than anyone has yet accounted for differentiating comics in 2004 from coins in 1989.

 

I don't disagree that there are other variables at work here - after all, history doesn't repeat itself exactly, it only rhymes. It's important not to get bogged down by the minutia - on the surface, the Tulip Mania, South Sea Bubble, the 1920s bull market in U.S. stocks, the 1980s bull market in Japanese stocks, etc. had very little in common - after all, what do flowers in Holland have to do with stocks in Japan? However, the end result was every bit as inevitable and inescapable in each instance. The circumstances may change, but human nature (greed and fear) never does.

 

As for coins in the 1980s and comics in the 2000s, there is no reason to believe that the underlying cycles will be of the same duration. The comics bull market could very well be greater in length. However, once the trend does start to turn, the decline will look much different from the coin experience, IMO - because of the greater transparency and liquidity, price action has the strong potential to be more rapid and violent to the downside (just as it has been more dramatic on the upside, to be fair).

[delekkerste]

Can I, once again, bring up the simple fact that the underlying framework/institutions that support our hobby today are much different (i.e.,. the 'net opens up the market to hundreds or thousands more potential buyers than would have been involved back then) than they were 10-15 years ago, or will I get yelled at again and given a lecture on the medieval Holland tulip market?

 

The globalization of the hobby via the Internet has done nothing to temper the price appreciation of the past few years - in fact, I think 100% of Board members would agree that price appreciation has been amplified by it.

 

Now, what makes you think the reverse will not be true when the trend starts to turn? I don't know about you, but I don't live in Candide's "best of all worlds", where only good things happen on both the way up and down!

[dam60]

Can I, once again, bring up the simple fact that the underlying framework/institutions that support our hobby today are much different (i.e.,. the 'net opens up the market to hundreds or thousands more potential buyers than would have been involved back then) than they were 10-15 years ago, or will I get yelled at again and given a lecture on the medieval Holland tulip market?

 

The globalization of the hobby via the Internet has done nothing to temper the price appreciation of the past few years - in fact, I think 100% of Board members would agree that price appreciation has been amplified by it.

 

Now, what makes you think the reverse will not be true when the trend starts to turn? I don't know about you, but I don't live in Candide's "best of all worlds", where only good things happen on both the way up and down!

 

Who's this Candide guy? Would I know him? Is he on the boards?

 

[drbanner]

The globalization of the hobby via the Internet has done nothing to temper the price appreciation of the past few years - in fact, I think 100% of Board members would agree that price appreciation has been amplified by it.

 

Yep!

 

Now, what makes you think the reverse will be true when the trend starts to turn? I don't know about you, but I don't live in Candide's "best of all worlds", where only good things happen on both the way up and down!

 

B/c, while I'm not interested in buying a 9.4 Green Lantern 76 at $1,500-$2,000, if the price comes down I'm sure there are dozens of regular ebayers and/or board members that would be happy to add it to their collection at $750-$1,000, etc.,.

 

To twist the infamous quote from one of your previous avatars - "I hate it at $2k, but I love it at $1k!"

[FFB]

At the risk of continuing the hijacking of Harry's thread (sorry Harry, but maybe you could use this as an incentive to post more pictures of your books in order to get the discussion back on topic ), I agree with Banner here. There are tons of books that I would not pay $10K for but that I would jump all over at $5K or below. I guess it comes down to whether you view the reduction in prices as a "correction" or a "crash."

 

B/c, while I'm not interested in buying a 9.4 Green Lantern 76 at $1,500-$2,000, if the price comes down I'm sure there are dozens of regular ebayers and/or board members that would be happy to add it to their collection at $750-$1,000, etc.,.

 

To twist the infamous quote from one of your previous avatars - "I hate it at $2k, but I love it at $1k!"

[dam60]

B/c, while I'm not interested in buying a 9.4 Green Lantern 76 at $1,500-$2,000, if the price comes down I'm sure there are dozens of regular ebayers and/or board members that would be happy to add it to their collection at $750-$1,000, etc.,.

 

To twist the infamous quote from one of your previous avatars - "I hate it at $2k, but I love it at $1k!"

 

I think the main point is in a world where a GL 76 in 9.4 sees its value literally cut in half you would see most if not all of the keys (everything?) cut in half as well. At that point would the GL 76 still be a screaming buy or would more collectors / board members go for a 9.4 of a GS X 1 or [insert book of choice here] or would more people just wait to see where the books are going to bottom out?

 

Here's a good stock market example - if you bought a S&P 500 index at the end of 2000 thinking that the decline was sure to be reversed you lost even more in 2001. Likewise in 2001 you lost even more in 2002 and finally 2003 was an up year. In the GL 76 case, if it dropped by 50% who's to say that more pain isn't ahead???

 

DAM

[dam60]

BB - that's a gorgeous book!!

 

Sorry for hijacking your thread

 

DAM

[delekkerste]

Not speaking to yours or Banner's case specifically, but it's easy to say in a bull market that people would jump all over something at lower prices. It might be quite a different story if prices are falling relentlessly and it's in your face 24/7 because of the real-time nature of eBay and the Internet. Then, suddenly you may have the possibility of global selling/global panic to match the global buying/global euphoria we've had on the way up.

 

Sure, to use your example, if a $10K book were suddenly priced at $5K, I'm sure there would be plenty of buyers at that level. However, if the $10K book fell to $5K and those people waiting at $5K saw no takers at $8K and $7K and $6K over a period of some time, perhaps they wouldn't be so inclined to buy even at that level. Now, let's say the economy and the real estate and stock markets tanked while all this was happening (perhaps even triggering the decline) - would your answer change?

[drbanner]

B/c, while I'm not interested in buying a 9.4 Green Lantern 76 at $1,500-$2,000, if the price comes down I'm sure there are dozens of regular ebayers and/or board members that would be happy to add it to their collection at $750-$1,000, etc.,.

 

To twist the infamous quote from one of your previous avatars - "I hate it at $2k, but I love it at $1k!"

 

I think the main point is in a world where a GL 76 in 9.4 sees its value literally cut in half you would see most if not all of the keys (everything?) cut in half as well. At that point would the GL 76 still be a screaming buy or would more collectors / board members go for a 9.4 of a GS X 1 or [insert book of choice here] or would more people just wait to see where the books are going to bottom out?

 

Here's a good stock market example - if you bought a S&P 500 index at the end of 2000 thinking that the decline was sure to be reversed you lost even more in 2001. Likewise in 2001 you lost even more in 2002 and finally 2003 was an up year. In the GL 76 case, if it dropped by 50% who's to say that more pain isn't ahead???

 

DAM

 

I would buy the book (I use GL 76 as an example, every collector has their personal GL 76) when it got to a point where it was worth it to me, know what I mean? Comics aren't an investment, they're a luxury, so all my purchases are spent costs and while I have a specific want list, a lot of times I'll just impulse buy when I see something interesting that seems like a good deal.

 

This is one of the main reasons I started collecting GA - for the price that early silver and key bronze Marvels were going for ("I once was a Marvel Zombie!"), I found that I got a bigger kick/thrill out of owning a 50-60 year old mid-grade Timely, DC, Dell Giant, or Cole horror book.