Action Comics Gerber scarcity

[CaptainBackfire]

Cool. Another opportunity to post my Flash #16. Let me know when you're sick of seeing it guys...

 

[Crowzilla]

Before the Journal came out and exposed the Flash #56, Kochanek had only documented 3 copies that came up for sale in a 5 year period, it was the scarcest issue! However afterward the Journal was released several Flash 56 owners saw $$$ in their eyes and put their copies on the market at "stupid money" prices.

 

You're confusing true scarcity with exposures over a given time frame

The fact that several were made available for sale immediately after the

PJ Guide came out helps to show the the flaw in that research.

 

Imagine doing a survey right after the PJ Guide came out - you would probably

think #56 was the most common issue as so many were made available (even if they were at raised prices). At one time I had two Detective #2s and saw another for sale over a three month period, but that certainly didn't make me believe it was a common pre-hero issue. Also remember Pat's research was based on CBG ads, catalogs and what he saw at shows, so he did not have the full transparency of all marketplace dealings to work with. With the internet, you could probably do a better 5-year survey (still a heck of a lot of work though).

 

Just let CGC keep track for the next five years. It's already one of the issues with the most copies certified, and will probably remain at least in the middle of the pack.

[Timely]

You are right, it certainly was not the most scientific way to conduct a scarcity evaluation, as Pat himself noted. Obviously the issues that are in higher demand and higher monetary value will be overemphasized in these kinds of researches. I'd still say the research did have some realistic certainties to it.

 

Timely~West

[Thegoldenage]

You are right, it certainly was not the most scientific way to conduct a scarcity evaluation, as Pat himself noted. Obviously the issues that are in higher demand and higher monetary value will be overemphasized in these kinds of researches. I'd still say the research did have some realistic certainties to it.

 

Timely~West

 

I agree. I think that Ernie conducted the most in-depth attempt ever to assess the scarcity of comic books. While his research was nearly 20 years ago and the Internet has changed a lot of books from rare and scarce to common, I think his scarcity index has remained remarkably accurate.

 

Books like Flash 56 were rare at one point in time, but became much more available after the Photojournals came into the hobby. Even books like Detective Comics 2 have seen an increase in availability. I remember looking for a copy in the early 90's, and there wasn't a single issue to be found. (Except for the Mile High copy, which sold for over 16k at Sotheby's in 1991).

[jkrk]

I've noticed that Gerber and Overstreet list several issues as scarce yet more issues were graded by CGC than some other "common" issues. How accurate is the scarcity index? Is the cGC census a better guide to scarcity?

[Apotheosis]

I think that both, to a degree, are going to be off. CGC's census only track books that have been graded. People with severely rare books may be more apt to have their books graded in any grade unlike a person with a common. X-Men #1 is a good example as there have been 663 copies graded. Of those 396 are in 5.0 or lower. X-Men 135 is alot more common, but only 275 have been graded with only 3 being 5.0 or lower. This comes down to the fact that grade doesn't always matter if it's rare and/or popular.

 

The Gerber index may be closer, but it's off also due to the way they came up with the ratings for each book. Hopefully someone else on here will explain this side of it as I only received my Gerbers today.

[CentaurMan]

How accurate is the scarcity index? Is the cGC census a better guide to scarcity?

 

I think the census is an excellent gauge of scarcity, but only if properly adjusted. Start under the assumption that the more a book is worth, the more likely it's going to get sent to CGC. In other words, Detective Comics 38 (first Robin) will naturally see more of its copies slabbed than Detective Comics 39. A comic's value is kind of a proxy for its demand, and people naturally slab more higher demand comics than they do low demand comics.

 

So I like to use the census to compare books of similar value to check relative scarcity. For example, Marvel Mystery Comics #4 and Young Allies #1 are both listed in Overstreet at about the same price ($3000 in Fine 6.0). According to the census, there have been 4 unrestored copies of MM#4 slabbed, while there are 22 unrestored copies of YA#1. Therefore, it's safe to assume that MM#4 is vastly scarcer than YA#1.

 

But you can't then compare the 4 copies of MM#4 to the 3 copies of Adventure Comics #34, for example, and declare that Adventure 34 is scarcer. Adventure 34 is worth much less ($650 in Fine 6.0) and therefore shouldn't be expected to have drawn as many CGC submissions out of the woodwork. Value-adjusted, it's quite likely that Marvel Mystery #4 is a more difficult comic to find.

[Durden08]

Great insight from everyone so far. The scarcity of those golden age books has always interested me. Take any key book such as Action #10 (3rd supes cover) and see only SIX unrestored copies graded. The fact that many books from the golden age are so hard to find, yet many are still affordable (in lower grade anyway) really brings out the collector in me. It wouldn't be as fun if every book on my want list was readily available.

Hey, great copy of Flash 16 you have there too.