Moderns that are heating up on ebay! 71 71

[Dukes40]

Call me stupid, but what is VH1 and VE1?

 

I think Harbinger will always be a key book, but I don't think it will have much legs. Once the people who collected Valiants in the early 90s are no longer collecting comics, I don't see there being much of a replacement consumer.

 

What about people collecting the new Valiant???

 

And you could say the same about many comics.

 

What about stuff like "Bone"??? Very limited scope, as it's just one (or two?) self-contained series. But it still gets money and accolades.

 

Just depends on rarity, quality, etc.

 

Same with the Turtles. They died off, now they're back. Even if they weren't, you'd still get collectors.

[Dukes40]

VH1 - the first VALIANT iteration

VH2 - when Acclaim took over

VEI - Valiant Entertainment Industries, the guys that put out the new Valiant books.

 

Such as, your line above should read "Once the people who collected VALIANTs in the early 90s are no longer collecting comics..."

 

Makes my using "VALIANT" and "Valiant" to differentiate the companies a little easier to accept, eh?

 

Eh??

 

 

 

 

-slym ( :: )

 

EH!

 

EH!

[Dukes40]

Pff, no "music video channels" play music nor videos anymore.

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

The morning is good for music videos. A lot of time my wife and I will just watch like MuchMusic (i.e. Canadian MTV), MuchMoreMusic, or MusiquePlus (Quebec MTV, get to see some really goofy or non-manstream stuff,haha).

 

Gets the energy going in the morning, and keeps us hip with the times.

[Dukes40]

[quote=kimik

Looking at the census numbers right now, out of the 717 copies of Harby #1 slabbed to date, 131 have come back at 9.8 (blue, green and yellow labels), which means a little over 18% of the slabbed copies have hit that grade. That number does not seem to indicate it is as tough to land in 9.8 (basically a 1 in 6 chance) as I thought it would be - I expected it to be in the 6-8% range due to the long known production issues.

 

If that number holds for the entire print run, then you are looking at 8000+ potential 9.8 candidates. Even if that rate is halved to 9% of the print run, that is still over 4000 copies in total as potential 9.8 books.

 

 

 

 

BUT... you have to take into account the fact that there may be a lot of copies that people think aren't good enough to submit.

 

If there's a lot sitting out there that would only get a 9.0, 8.0 etc, then they're never going to get submitted, and therfore this may be keeping that high 1:6 ratio going.

 

Plus, isn't there the coupon thing to consider??? How does that factor in? Is the WITH coupon one worth more (I THINK it is, if I remember correctly).

 

Many people may thinkg "Well, coupons not in, no point in submitting.

 

 

All this talk of Harbinger #1 is making me want to get mine slabbed.

Edited February 5, 2014 by Dukes40

[RCheli]

Call me stupid, but what is VH1 and VE1?

 

I think Harbinger will always be a key book, but I don't think it will have much legs. Once the people who collected Valiants in the early 90s are no longer collecting comics, I don't see there being much of a replacement consumer.

 

What about people collecting the new Valiant???

 

And you could say the same about many comics.

 

What about stuff like "Bone"??? Very limited scope, as it's just one (or two?) self-contained series. But it still gets money and accolades.

 

Just depends on rarity, quality, etc.

 

Same with the Turtles. They died off, now they're back. Even if they weren't, you'd still get collectors.

 

You can't compare Harbinger to the Turtles or even Bone.

 

The Turtles have been in movies, cartoons, comics, toys, pretty much nonstop for nearly 30 years. The are constantly creating new fans, young fans.

 

Bone, while not as popular as the Turtles, has been reprinted countless times by a very large non-comic publisher -- Scholastic. There are a ridiculous number of copies of those in print, numbers that dwarf Harbinger's numbers. Also, the first printing of Bone #1 was much, much smaller than Harbinger, and is legitimately much harder to find.

 

Harbinger was a short-lived series that at one time was incredibly popular. The first issue may be a top-20 modern book now, but I don't think it's going to last. The most recent sales through Diamond were under 10,000 copies, the 199th most ordered book that month.

[Dukes40]

Call me stupid, but what is VH1 and VE1?

 

I think Harbinger will always be a key book, but I don't think it will have much legs. Once the people who collected Valiants in the early 90s are no longer collecting comics, I don't see there being much of a replacement consumer.

 

What about people collecting the new Valiant???

 

And you could say the same about many comics.

 

What about stuff like "Bone"??? Very limited scope, as it's just one (or two?) self-contained series. But it still gets money and accolades.

 

Just depends on rarity, quality, etc.

 

Same with the Turtles. They died off, now they're back. Even if they weren't, you'd still get collectors.

 

You can't compare Harbinger to the Turtles or even Bone.

 

The Turtles have been in movies, cartoons, comics, toys, pretty much nonstop for nearly 30 years. The are constantly creating new fans, young fans.

 

Bone, while not as popular as the Turtles, has been reprinted countless times by a very large non-comic publisher -- Scholastic. There are a ridiculous number of copies of those in print, numbers that dwarf Harbinger's numbers. Also, the first printing of Bone #1 was much, much smaller than Harbinger, and is legitimately much harder to find.

 

Harbinger was a short-lived series that at one time was incredibly popular. The first issue may be a top-20 modern book now, but I don't think it's going to last. The most recent sales through Diamond were under 10,000 copies, the 199th most ordered book that month.

 

I don't mean they're exactly the same. I was just trying to say that just because one group of collectors stops collecting something, that doesn't mean that no one else will start.

[slym2none]

Unfortunately, the ratio is killed by pre-screening. I have personally submitted over 100 copies of H1, all pre-screens. Only a small number of those appear on the census.

 

The census is also thrown off by nothing ever coming off the census. How many 9.8s also appear on the Census as 9.6s or lower grades? Must be a few that were CPRd successfully or just resubbed. Many of us (Valiant CGC nuts) feel that CGC is much more lenient with H1s than they were 5 years ago.

 

Like you, I estimate (based on handling hundreds and hundreds of copies over the years) only about 10% of the original run was 9.8 worthy. If you erode that number through the coupon program, time, handling, and general mayhem, I usually use 1000 as a theoretical top end number of what might be left.

 

But in reality that seems high to me. We'll see how the trickle of census number grows.

 

 

It will be interesting. Even at 5% of the print run, you are looking at 2400+ 9.8 copies. The question is how many will ever be submitted. There are very few Copper/Modern collectors that buy slabs from me at shows. The vast majority prefer being able to hold the book in their hands, even if you gouge them on the raw copies.

 

FWIW, CGC is way easier now on books across the board. That is another big part of why I see Harby #1 9.8 numbers creeping up. The amount of printing defects that they allow in 9.8s is scary.

 

Is a cut-out coupon one of those defects? Many, many, MANY Harbinger 1s have the coupon cut out. No 9.8 for those.

 

 

 

-slym

[RCheli]

 

I don't mean they're exactly the same. I was just trying to say that just because one group of collectors stops collecting something, that doesn't mean that no one else will start.

 

I agree. However, I believe that there are significantly more people that are going to start buying Bone or Turtles or many, many other titles more than Harbinger.

 

To me, the people who like Valiant books REALLY LIKE VALIANT. There are very few on-the-fencers. Those people are going to buy pretty much everything. So that's good, I suppose, for back issues. However, I just don't know if there are many more of them being made.

[mschmidt]

Unfortunately, the ratio is killed by pre-screening. I have personally submitted over 100 copies of H1, all pre-screens. Only a small number of those appear on the census.

 

The census is also thrown off by nothing ever coming off the census. How many 9.8s also appear on the Census as 9.6s or lower grades? Must be a few that were CPRd successfully or just resubbed. Many of us (Valiant CGC nuts) feel that CGC is much more lenient with H1s than they were 5 years ago.

 

Like you, I estimate (based on handling hundreds and hundreds of copies over the years) only about 10% of the original run was 9.8 worthy. If you erode that number through the coupon program, time, handling, and general mayhem, I usually use 1000 as a theoretical top end number of what might be left.

 

But in reality that seems high to me. We'll see how the trickle of census number grows.

 

 

It will be interesting. Even at 5% of the print run, you are looking at 2400+ 9.8 copies. The question is how many will ever be submitted. There are very few Copper/Modern collectors that buy slabs from me at shows. The vast majority prefer being able to hold the book in their hands, even if you gouge them on the raw copies.

 

FWIW, CGC is way easier now on books across the board. That is another big part of why I see Harby #1 9.8 numbers creeping up. The amount of printing defects that they allow in 9.8s is scary.

 

That's just not true ... CGC has been very strict on moderns for more than a year now. The 9.8s that are coming back these days are solid 9.8s - if it's a 9.6/9.8 tweener, it's going to come back a 9.6.

[mschmidt]

Unfortunately, the ratio is killed by pre-screening. I have personally submitted over 100 copies of H1, all pre-screens. Only a small number of those appear on the census.

 

The census is also thrown off by nothing ever coming off the census. How many 9.8s also appear on the Census as 9.6s or lower grades? Must be a few that were CPRd successfully or just resubbed. Many of us (Valiant CGC nuts) feel that CGC is much more lenient with H1s than they were 5 years ago.

 

Like you, I estimate (based on handling hundreds and hundreds of copies over the years) only about 10% of the original run was 9.8 worthy. If you erode that number through the coupon program, time, handling, and general mayhem, I usually use 1000 as a theoretical top end number of what might be left.

 

But in reality that seems high to me. We'll see how the trickle of census number grows.

 

 

It will be interesting. Even at 5% of the print run, you are looking at 2400+ 9.8 copies. The question is how many will ever be submitted. There are very few Copper/Modern collectors that buy slabs from me at shows. The vast majority prefer being able to hold the book in their hands, even if you gouge them on the raw copies.

 

FWIW, CGC is way easier now on books across the board. That is another big part of why I see Harby #1 9.8 numbers creeping up. The amount of printing defects that they allow in 9.8s is scary.

 

Is a cut-out coupon one of those defects? Many, many, MANY Harbinger 1s have the coupon cut out. No 9.8 for those.

 

There are 5 Qualified Harbinger #1s in CGC 9.8 - at least two of those are Qualified due a missing coupon.

[CKB]

That's just not true ... CGC has been very strict on moderns for more than a year now. The 9.8s that are coming back these days are solid 9.8s - if it's a 9.6/9.8 tweener, it's going to come back a 9.6.

 

They may have tightened up now, but for the purposes of the discussion any period where they were lenient "corrupts" the data we are trying to glean from the census. Namely "how hard is it really to get a H1 9.8?"

 

Once graded, books stay on the census, deserving or not. Right?

 

 

[CKB]

Unfortunately, the ratio is killed by pre-screening. I have personally submitted over 100 copies of H1, all pre-screens. Only a small number of those appear on the census.

 

The census is also thrown off by nothing ever coming off the census. How many 9.8s also appear on the Census as 9.6s or lower grades? Must be a few that were CPRd successfully or just resubbed. Many of us (Valiant CGC nuts) feel that CGC is much more lenient with H1s than they were 5 years ago.

 

Like you, I estimate (based on handling hundreds and hundreds of copies over the years) only about 10% of the original run was 9.8 worthy. If you erode that number through the coupon program, time, handling, and general mayhem, I usually use 1000 as a theoretical top end number of what might be left.

 

But in reality that seems high to me. We'll see how the trickle of census number grows.

 

 

It will be interesting. Even at 5% of the print run, you are looking at 2400+ 9.8 copies. The question is how many will ever be submitted. There are very few Copper/Modern collectors that buy slabs from me at shows. The vast majority prefer being able to hold the book in their hands, even if you gouge them on the raw copies.

 

FWIW, CGC is way easier now on books across the board. That is another big part of why I see Harby #1 9.8 numbers creeping up. The amount of printing defects that they allow in 9.8s is scary.

 

Is a cut-out coupon one of those defects? Many, many, MANY Harbinger 1s have the coupon cut out. No 9.8 for those.

 

-slym

 

This is why I ignore the non-blue numbers on the census. The greens are qualified and the yellows have been "defaced", so blue is my friend. But certainly the number of high grade books were reduced by the coupon program.

 

(PS to you SS junkies: Don't go after me on the SS comment - I just mean they are changed from their original state, you may see it as better or worse, but you can't say it isn't changed! )

 

 

[Flatliner1313]

Harbinger #1 has sold for waaaay more than that in the past. It's been in the toilet ($250-$300) for a while.

 

It actually has never bottomed out at that range. The only sales under $300 occurred during the infancy of CGC, and long before the demand for Harbinger shot the price up to $2500. The past year or so the book has oscillated around $300-350, ending closer to $350.

 

From what I understand, the books he lists are based on the # of bids, not the price.

 

FWIW, the suckers were the ones that bought Harbinger #1 at the highs. There were plenty of HG copies to go around and it was only a matter of time for more to surface. Just like any BA/CA/Modern #1 or key, there will be more highest graded copies on the census over time and that will bring prices back to reality.

 

Actually that particular post had to do with the number of watchers, not the price.

 

I think you are a little strong with your characterization of the supply of high grade Harbinger 1s. Given a book that sold from $2500 down to $350, there are still only about 100 9.8s on the census which has grown very very slowly for a 90's "big money" book. Compare to Batman Adventures 12.

 

Certainly there was little support for a 2500 price given even a slowly growing census count, but it still is a legitimately tough book to grade out at 9.8.

 

It is tougher than other books from that period, but at an estimated 48,000 print run there are plenty of potential 9.8s out there in long boxes and store stock that have not come out to play yet. The question is how many people are willing to pay the $250-$350 for it if the current series fails and there are no movie/tv prospects to inflate prices?

 

When I look at the number of so-so Image books being optioned, I keep wondering if Valiant will ever get something on the big or small screen.

 

Harbinger 1 doesn't have a TON of downside in CGC 9.8 in that price range. It's a relatively tough 9.8, has a very low print run for its era, is a classic book that a lot of people have some nostalgia for, and the characters are back in print for now. Even if the current series died, it's already renewed some interest in the book.

 

Certainly. You don't need to be a Valiant collector to want a H1 9.8 in your collection. It is a legit modern era key book. I would put it in the top 10, and I can't see it out of the top 20 in any serious list.

 

 

I think the Valiant book that should be on people's top 10 modern lists is VH1 X-O Manowar 1. The title outsold Harbinger back in the day (X-O Manowar was published for over a year after the original Harbinger title folded), it was one of the few titles revived by Acclaim (Harbinger did not make the cut), and is the top selling Valiant title for VEI. Harbinger is a wannabe X-Men and will always be compared to that title. X-O Manowar is a unique character and is Valiant's flagship character and title. IMHO, of course.

 

It's pathetic that VH1 X-O Manowar 1 in 9.8 CGC sells for $75 - $100. There are VEI X-O Manowar variants that sell for more and that's just wrong.

 

As for moderns that are heating up, did anyone else notice the inexpensive (under $15) copies of House of Mystery Halloween Annual 1s disappeared on E-Bay this weekend after the iZombie news? That book has less than 12,000 copies. Not a huge print run.

 

If Harbinger is a Wannabe X-Men, couldn't you say X-O Is a wannabe Iron Man?

 

[RCheli]

 

If Harbinger is a Wannabe X-Men, couldn't you say X-O Is a wannabe Iron Man?

 

What? You don't remember that 2-issue series where they teamed up?

 

http://www.comics.org/issue/273728/

[Lobo1969]

Harbinger #1 has sold for waaaay more than that in the past. It's been in the toilet ($250-$300) for a while.

 

It actually has never bottomed out at that range. The only sales under $300 occurred during the infancy of CGC, and long before the demand for Harbinger shot the price up to $2500. The past year or so the book has oscillated around $300-350, ending closer to $350.

 

From what I understand, the books he lists are based on the # of bids, not the price.

 

FWIW, the suckers were the ones that bought Harbinger #1 at the highs. There were plenty of HG copies to go around and it was only a matter of time for more to surface. Just like any BA/CA/Modern #1 or key, there will be more highest graded copies on the census over time and that will bring prices back to reality.

 

Actually that particular post had to do with the number of watchers, not the price.

 

I think you are a little strong with your characterization of the supply of high grade Harbinger 1s. Given a book that sold from $2500 down to $350, there are still only about 100 9.8s on the census which has grown very very slowly for a 90's "big money" book. Compare to Batman Adventures 12.

 

Certainly there was little support for a 2500 price given even a slowly growing census count, but it still is a legitimately tough book to grade out at 9.8.

 

It is tougher than other books from that period, but at an estimated 48,000 print run there are plenty of potential 9.8s out there in long boxes and store stock that have not come out to play yet. The question is how many people are willing to pay the $250-$350 for it if the current series fails and there are no movie/tv prospects to inflate prices?

 

When I look at the number of so-so Image books being optioned, I keep wondering if Valiant will ever get something on the big or small screen.

 

Harbinger 1 doesn't have a TON of downside in CGC 9.8 in that price range. It's a relatively tough 9.8, has a very low print run for its era, is a classic book that a lot of people have some nostalgia for, and the characters are back in print for now. Even if the current series died, it's already renewed some interest in the book.

 

Certainly. You don't need to be a Valiant collector to want a H1 9.8 in your collection. It is a legit modern era key book. I would put it in the top 10, and I can't see it out of the top 20 in any serious list.

 

 

I think the Valiant book that should be on people's top 10 modern lists is VH1 X-O Manowar 1. The title outsold Harbinger back in the day (X-O Manowar was published for over a year after the original Harbinger title folded), it was one of the few titles revived by Acclaim (Harbinger did not make the cut), and is the top selling Valiant title for VEI. Harbinger is a wannabe X-Men and will always be compared to that title. X-O Manowar is a unique character and is Valiant's flagship character and title. IMHO, of course.

 

It's pathetic that VH1 X-O Manowar 1 in 9.8 CGC sells for $75 - $100. There are VEI X-O Manowar variants that sell for more and that's just wrong.

 

As for moderns that are heating up, did anyone else notice the inexpensive (under $15) copies of House of Mystery Halloween Annual 1s disappeared on E-Bay this weekend after the iZombie news? That book has less than 12,000 copies. Not a huge print run.

 

If Harbinger is a Wannabe X-Men, couldn't you say X-O Is a wannabe Iron Man?

I'd say the XO armor is closer to the Darkhawk Armor than the Iron Man armor.

 

[RCheli]

When the Guardians of the Galaxy movie bombs (and I suspect it's going to be a huge dud), what are those IH #271 and associated GoG comics going to do?

[CKB]

When the Guardians of the Galaxy movie bombs (and I suspect it's going to be a huge dud), what are those IH #271 and associated GoG comics going to do?

 

Are you kidding? Rocket Raccoon is the new Spiderman. Duh.

 

[Vikingreed]

Hmmmm, I think the movie is gonna do well.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "bomb".

 

It will make a ton of money. No doubt.

[mschmidt]

That's just not true ... CGC has been very strict on moderns for more than a year now. The 9.8s that are coming back these days are solid 9.8s - if it's a 9.6/9.8 tweener, it's going to come back a 9.6.

 

They may have tightened up now, but for the purposes of the discussion any period where they were lenient "corrupts" the data we are trying to glean from the census. Namely "how hard is it really to get a H1 9.8?"

 

Once graded, books stay on the census, deserving or not. Right?

 

You're right on the last point, but I was responding to kimik's claim of CGC being loose right now and how it has caused the CGC census for Harbinger #1s to balloon.

 

If you actually look at the census analysis, however, you can clearly see that that isn't the case - the large census jumps originate around the big $$$ sales where people start digging out their copies & submit them en masse, and have nothing to do with the "CGC cycles".

 

CGC was loose on moderns for the better part of 2012 which saw an addition of 17 new CGC 9.8 copies. CGC was strict on moderns all throughout 2013 and yet the census grew by 22 copies.

[mangbus]

Hmmmm, I think the movie is gonna do well.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "bomb".

 

It will make a ton of money. No doubt.

 

I agree

 

There will always be a few boardies who will throw out the 'it will bomb' talk. Plenty of IM3 hate and that film cranked out $1.2 Billion to date.

 

 

I see GotG doing just good enough to launch an animated cartoon series.