Are we in a 'speculative' market?

[TupennyConan]

The HG BA market bubble popped under the press last year.

 

 

[etanick]

I really like the discussion this could create. There was a thread about what is hot now will be hot 25 years from now. Well guess what comic characters are hot they are blazing hot. Superhero Squad , Avengers on Disney, Brave and the Bold, Most of the hero based movies. Look at the kids they are devouring comic characters. They are however not devouring comics. So I guess the Speculation comes from are these kids who are going to be the bread winners of the future going to dish out for that AF 15 for over a million dollars. Remember the kids love the characters but will the comics hold that spot for them. Maybe?

 

we will find out in 20 years

 

can't change the tide. Kids have too many other forms of entertainment and distractions now. Even if a movie is semi-successful, Disney can make more money in that one movie that selling all the comic books per year How many comic books must Marvel sells in order to make $5 million in profit?

 

 

[thehumantorch]

I think the OP is asking if we are in a speculative bubble. Have prices been

driven up and are they likely to fall?

 

I'm not sure prices will plummet anytime soon but I do believe that:

 

Collectors who grew up during the SA are probably at their peak earning point

(PEP).

 

The many comic centric movies (CCM) has brought new collectors to the hobby

 

CGC has drastically changed the high end hobby bringing standardization to

grading and creating competition through the census and registry.

 

We are in a perfect storm right now but I don`t know who we will sell to 20

years from now.

 

 

[JWKyle]

I think the OP is asking if we are in a speculative bubble. Have prices been

driven up and are they likely to fall?

 

I'm not sure prices will plummet anytime soon but I do believe that:

 

Collectors who grew up during the SA are probably at their peak earning point

(PEP).

 

The many comic centric movies (CCM) has brought new collectors to the hobby

 

CGC has drastically changed the high end hobby bringing standardization to

grading and creating competition through the census and registry.

 

We are in a perfect storm right now but I don`t know who we will sell to 20

years from now.

 

And that's the big question who will be buying 20-25 years from now. I have two boys 5 and 8. They love the character but they could give a flip about the comics they get exposure to these characters from video games, cartoons and movies. When they get older will they feel the need to get the books only time will tell

[Bookery]

Has there ever been a market that wasn't a speculative market?

 

Yep.

 

Comic books for one.

 

From the 1930s through the 1950s there was a market for comic books. They were bought to be read or, a la Church, to be collected. But nobody looked at them as something to speculate in. This held true through much of the '60s and '70s, though the number of "collectors" radically increased, and a few speculators were beginning to enter the fray.

 

As a truly speculative market... that probably really didn't begin to dominate until the 1980s and beyond. CGC magnified that trend many times at the start of the new century. Now comic books, as a product, are almost entirely a speculator's market, for better or worse.

 

What that means for the future is a very large and complex issue, though one that can be discussed with some degree of logical approach. But the comic community as a whole generally avoids such discussions (publicly anyway) like the plague. And it certainly won't happen here beyond a couple of token posts.

 

If you're looking to write a book you might have to contact dealers and collectors individually (and off the record). Most perform a Pollyanna act in public (since it's their livelihood) but might be more balanced and reflective in their views privately.

 

 

 

 

[otherworldsj33]

Is it realistic to ask anyone the stability of just about any market DECADES out?

[DeliBebek]

As long as the market doesn't lean toward a product that is intended only to be collectible, I don't have a problem with it. When speculation drives the product and causes a downward shift in quality, I do. As for the back issue market, it depends on whether there are more collectors or more brokers. Collectors prefer to keep prices lower, but brokers would rather have them high, I think.

 

Side note to my thinking, the children growing up today have so much available digitally that I wonder if the sense of ownership is decreasing. Having the things they grew up may mean downloading them from an archive, which isn't like the collectibles markets we know at all.

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

I think the OP is asking if we are in a speculative bubble. Have prices been

driven up and are they likely to fall?

 

I'm not sure prices will plummet anytime soon but I do believe that:

 

Collectors who grew up during the SA are probably at their peak earning point

(PEP).

 

The many comic centric movies (CCM) has brought new collectors to the hobby

 

CGC has drastically changed the high end hobby bringing standardization to

grading and creating competition through the census and registry.

 

We are in a perfect storm right now but I don`t know who we will sell to 20

years from now.

 

 

Regarding bubbles, the one thing that has caught my attention recently is the large number of investment articles pointing toward comic books (specifically keys) as a relatively sound investment with historically moderate to high rates of return. There is a lot of money on the sidelines right now because of the stock market, the housing market crash, and interest rate reductions by the Fed. This coupled with the perception by the general public that "all" comics are extremely valuable (witness some of the ridiculous ask prices on Craigslist and eBay), has me a little bit concerned.

 

BTW, nice use of multiple TLAs (Three Letter Acronyms).

[mintcollector]

Is it realistic to ask anyone the stability of just about any market DECADES out?

 

In the financial markets the answer would be yes. Remeber most investors (in the financial markets) do adopt a 'buy and hold' strategy. Even in the antiques market, you will often get asked a question in regards to market trends over a period of time; sometimes spanning decades or more. This is not uncommon.

 

If someone is going to spend thousands and thousands of dollars on a coin, or a chair, or rare piece of art glass; they generally want to know the price history of such objects. I know when I studied the trade, before becoming active in it; as learned from other dealers, this was quite common. I can tell you that it is not uncommon for antique dealers to talk about 'speculative markets' openly. Ironically, it is when you start talking about these kind of markets in the collectibles world (items will a less stable track record); that people start to get nervous. I am learning this to be true.

[paperheart]

For at least the last 20 years, the market has been based on speculation.

 

Judging by the activities here...the crack, press & resub, the buy-and-flip, the manipulate-and-then-call-it-something-else...I would suggest there's about 20,000 wannabe 'dealers' and around 300 actual collectors currently active.

 

i'm no Spartan but proud to be one of the 300

 

 

[Davenport]

Hello all,

 

I finally took the 'plunge' and signed up for GP Analysis. This is a great 'tool' and one that no serious CGC comic buyer should be without (in my opinion).

I think an interesting question is: What's the average service lifespan of a GPAnalysis customer?

 

From the cheap seats, using this board as a microcosm, a lot of the first intense investors posting here have either (A) cashed out and moved on, or (B) started a market based business.

 

Are investors cycling through in, say, five to eight years, or is that a flawed perception?

[TupennyConan]

My money is on digital making it a reader-driven art form again.

 

Those who enter the hobby from other areas of interest such as coins or antiques in an effort to profit can bite me.

 

They can suck it.

 

Choke on it.

[Bunky Brian]

As long as the market doesn't lean toward a product that is intended only to be collectible, I don't have a problem with it. When speculation drives the product and causes a downward shift in quality, I do. As for the back issue market, it depends on whether there are more collectors or more brokers. Collectors prefer to keep prices lower, but brokers would rather have them high, I think.

 

Side note to my thinking, the children growing up today have so much available digitally that I wonder if the sense of ownership is decreasing. Having the things they grew up may mean downloading them from an archive, which isn't like the collectibles markets we know at all.

 

Excellant point and very true (thumbs u

 

[mintcollector]

My money is on digital making it a reader-driven art form again.

 

Those who enter the hobby from other areas of interest such as coins or antiques in an effort to profit can bite me.

 

They can suck it.

 

Choke on it.

 

I see what you are saying; and to be clear, I like comics as an art form; this is why I collect. There are a lot of other collectibles that I can name that have a much better return on investment (if that is what someone is looking for).

 

That being said, I do notice kids my nephew's age (in college) who are respecting the original art form (meaning a lot of them do want physical copies to own and hold). A lot of these kids also do care about the charcater's first appearance and origin. This is especially true of characters that have popular movies based on them (i.e. Iron Man and the like) and animated series.

 

There are however, a lot of collectors like myself that do cross collect. I am big into coins and currency as well. In fact, I came to these boards from the currency and coin side. I am also active in other antiques as well; and the subject of comic collecting has been coming up a lot from antique dealers. This has peaked my curiousity; and is also one reason why I asked the original question. In no other time since the 1990's; have I heard of so many non-collectors (of comics) talking about the business side of the hobby.

[mikenyc]

This thread is what is troubling about these boards. The majority of older members will reminisce about the good old days, a time before all the noobs had lowered the property values.

 

When a perfectly reasonable and poignant question is asked, it is met with mockery and hostility. The responses are ridiculous, and lead a noob like myself to believe, that not a ing thing was ever different.

 

To make the argument that by questioning the valuations of the current market, you are somehow offending it's participants, is usually the flashing sign above the head of the dumb money. I buy comics, but I don't bury my head in the sand and pretend that all comics are created equal, and that a current market price is actually justified or it is based on a flash trend.

 

Why do you think that 99% of dealers will sell any of their books without hesitation if the price is right. It's the emotional component for investors that allows for poor decision making. You should always be questioning your purchases, your collection, or the market as a whole.

 

The question is completely valid, does not apply to every single comic book, and is one of the very few topics that applies to every single person on these boards. Or everyone can continue to ask why Lemon man is in the right.

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

In no other time since the 1990's; have I heard of so many non-collectors (of comics) talking about the business side of the hobby.

 

Yup.

[TupennyConan]

I'm not being critical of you. Please forgive me if I created that confusion.

 

Here is a passing observation:

 

Money is now digital. Cash is becoming a quaint thing of the past. The coin & paper currency hobby continues.

[Lebowski]

Yeah! Only long-time comic profiteers should be allowed to continue making profit off of comic collectors!

 

[TupennyConan]

Yeah! Only long-time comic profiteers should be allowed to continue making profit off of comic collectors!

 

 

They can suck it the hardest of all.

 

Double time.

[lizards2]

This thread is what is troubling about these boards. The majority of older members will reminisce about the good old days, a time before all the noobs had lowered the property values.

 

When a perfectly reasonable and poignant question is asked, it is met with mockery and hostility. The responses are ridiculous, and lead a noob like myself to believe, that not a ing thing was ever different.

 

To make the argument that by questioning the valuations of the current market, you are somehow offending it's participants, is usually the flashing sign above the head of the dumb money. I buy comics, but I don't bury my head in the sand and pretend that all comics are created equal, and that a current market price is actually justified or it is based on a flash trend.

 

Why do you think that 99% of dealers will sell any of their books without hesitation if the price is right. It's the emotional component for investors that allows for poor decision making. You should always be questioning your purchases, your collection, or the market as a whole.

 

The question is completely valid, does not apply to every single comic book, and is one of the very few topics that applies to every single person on these boards. Or everyone can continue to ask why Lemon man is in the right.

In my opinion, the newbs raised the property values. I long for reasonable prices. But, I'm a collector first (40+ years). I agree - always question your purchases. In my opinion, the market is in a downward trend right now, in almost everything except certain keys and first appearances, and uber-high grades...., and I like that trend.

 

I think CGC initially had a part in the great inflation of prices, and now they're playing a part in the great deflation, since we are now finding out how plentiful most things are - like SA books in 9.2/9.4.