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Time Frame For Crash?

Started by Paul_Maul,

121 posts in this topic

FlyingDonut

FlyingDonut

Posted
Posted
Hey Khaos.....what percentage increase in the sales of US books do you think are flowing out of the US for the last 12 months?

 

I can't speak for others, but I've seen a very noticeable increase in the amount of books I'm shipping overseas, mostly to the UK. Dollar dropping and all that.

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drbanner

drbanner

Posted
Posted
Hey Khaos.....what percentage increase in the sales of US books do you think are flowing out of the US for the last 12 months?

 

I can't speak for others, but I've seen a very noticeable increase in the amount of books I'm shipping overseas, mostly to the UK. Dollar dropping and all that.

 

It's not an aberration, I've been noticing an increase in international demand for old american comics for at least a year now, and the Brits are tenacious!! 893whatthe.gif

 

My last batch of auctions had winning bidders in Australia, Spain, two in the UK and several to Canada...went to the PO on my regular week-end trip and was surprised to walk in the door with five international packages and zero domestic. confused-smiley-013.gif

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Silver Surfer

Silver Surfer

Posted
Posted

I don't think you say the word "crash" without being specific to era and grade of books. Its too general and doesn't apply to all areas.

 

Generally speaking I think prices are already out stripping demand. They have been rising steadily for a year now and I have noticed that there are more and more books that are not getting immediately snatched up. A 50% decline however? I can see this with Moderns as in many cases prices are based on frenzied emotion and not on long term established trends such as those in the SA. When an X-men #266 is being listed for almost triple of a 9.8 Byrne X-Men 109 or in excess of an X-Men #12 (9.4), to me that is crash waiting to happen. SA stuff that has been popular for 40 years (ASM, FF,X-Men) will remain popular and if anyone wants to unload their stuff at a 40% discount please PM me.

 

Also, as the HG stuff gets out of reach to the average serious collector this opens up a new market in the 5-.7.5 grade range. I think this is already reflected in many of the comments of our board members. The CGC concept will help this along as I think they are just starting to gain wide spread popularity. They provide a reasonable sense of security for buyers that was never really tangible in the past. Also, more and more people are slabbing their 5-7.5 grade books as it confirms value, keeps them liquid if needed to be sold and helps preserve them for long-term comic fan collectors (which I am).

 

If there is another stock market decline this fall then expect to see the high prices of Moderns to fall off considerably as people begin to unload. If by some chance we have a relatively strong stock market into the Christmas season and disposable income is there expect the SA prices to remain strong. Regardless of outside factors I still think that Moderns are poised to run out of gas as I don't think the product is good enough (or scarce enough) to warrant all the attention.

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Silver Surfer

Silver Surfer

Posted
Posted

Quote: Here's the deal in a nutshell:

 

When you're in so deep that your mind does not allow the possibility of a market crash, then it's time to get out.

 

JC,

 

You should practice what you preach. If you remember I asked you last month when you were going to have your big sale. I believe you said that you were going to hold on to your stuff and wait it out, or something to that effect? Do as I say, not as I do? Almost sounds like a the father telling his son not to smoke as he sends him out to the corner store to buy another pack for him. insane.gif

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joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
Posted
When you are so focused on being right that you ignore 99% of the marketplace to prove your point, you might want to rethink your views.

 

I keep forgetting we're in the CGC forums, and that I'm referring to CGC comics.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
Posted
You should practice what you preach. If you remember I asked you last month when you were going to have your big sale. I believe you said that you were going to hold on to your stuff and wait it out, or something to that effect?

 

What I said was, that I do not look at comics as an "investment" and treat any money spent on my HOBBY as sunk costs, just as I do with DVDs and computer games.

 

Computer games drop to 10% of price online a month or so after release, so why in the world aren't I selling the ones I bought at EB? Because they're entertainment, and I pay my money for the item itself, not something insane like "future investment value". 893frustrated.gif

 

Then again, if I ever lost my mind and did something as insipid as "investing in slabs at nosebleed prices" you can be dang sure I'd be blowing out my collection tomorrow. No way that 99% of these prices can sustain themselves over the long term. No way.

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FlyingDonut

FlyingDonut

Posted
Posted
When you are so focused on being right that you ignore 99% of the marketplace to prove your point, you might want to rethink your views.

 

I keep forgetting we're in the CGC forums, and that I'm referring to CGC comics.

 

Just as long as we're clear.

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LordRahl

LordRahl

Posted
Posted

I keep forgetting we're in the CGC forums, and that I'm referring to CGC comics.

 

Even if you're talking about CGC books, you're still wrong. 893whatthe.gif Take an early Silver book, FF 7 for example, that sells for VF guide price slabbed at an 8.0. In 10 years it will still sell for VF guide price. Will VF guide go up by then, maybe, maybe not. You can extrapolate this for any grade of VF and below. The problem with all of the crash theorists, as I've told Gene, is that none of you will DEFINE this crash. So everyone takes it to mean something different. I absolutely believe that modern [!@#%^&^] that is selling for stupid money i.e. the UFF 1 CGC 10 and DD 131 CGC 9.8 will crash. I absolutely believe that there will not be a unilateral crash of every genre, every age and every grade. You probably don't either. But you crash theorists make it sound so all-encompassing by your refusal to properly define what the hell it is you're arguing about. makepoint.gif This is probably why there is a crash thread EVERY... SINGLE... FREAKING... DAY... Why do I even bother getting into these threads??? 893frustrated.gif

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blowout

blowout

Posted
Posted

Do I make insane money? No. Do I make steady, everyday easy money? Yes, and I plan to continue to do so for quite some time.

 

But for how long is 'quite some time'...?893scratchchin-thumb.gif

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FlyingDonut

FlyingDonut

Posted
Posted
Do I make insane money? No. Do I make steady, everyday easy money? Yes, and I plan to continue to do so for quite some time.

 

But for how long is 'quite some time'...?893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

30 years.

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blowout

blowout

Posted
Posted

When you are so focused on being right that you ignore 99% of the marketplace to prove your point, you might want to rethink your views.

 

Lets just re-cap here. You sell comic books right?

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ninanina

ninanina

Posted
Posted
This is probably why there is a crash thread EVERY... SINGLE... FREAKING... DAY... Why do I even bother getting into these threads??? 893frustrated.gif

 

We all like to listen to JC's ramblings on the topic, why else? And....

 

a few of us also like to get into friendly argume....er....discussions with JC on the subject. Two posts into this one, we've got OldGuy quoting JC and 11 posts down Mushroom is asking where he is.

 

It's elementary!

 

It's entertainment!

 

It's fun!

 

It's interesting! grin.gif

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