Will Silver age follow Golden age?

[Silver Surfer]

hey Gene, maybe I should send thi sin s PM, but what the hay - - -

why are you bidding on Filter's huge lot of Silver!?

jeeez.. Dont tell JC youre buying again!!! it'll kill em!

 

 

100K of old paper!!

 

How ironic.

[joe_collector]

As for baseball cards, I bought HG 50s and 60s star cards and sets at the end of the 80s. I recently sold them and nearly doubled what I spent on them back then. I was pleasantly surprised for two reasons: they turned out to be only 7s and 8s with a handful of 9s. And, I was convinced by all the "wags" on your side of the fence that Baseball cards had all TANKED!!

 

Wow, listen to my story:

 

In 1979-80, I bought several boxes of OPC hockey cards, and got a nice stack of Gretzky rookies. Those are still worth big bucks, and for $0.0002 per card I spent, I made a HUGE return, which is funny, since I heard sportscards had TANKED!!!

 

 

Now let's get back to reality.

 

It's not WHAT you bought, but WHEN you bought it. Had you purchased those same cards, at the APEX of the market in the 90's, I doubt you would have come out looking so good. Take my Gretzky rookie cards for example, had I bought them in the mid-90's and sold in 2004, then I would have lost money.

 

I FIRMLY believe we are at the APEX of the comic book market, and that in the future, returns will be few and far between, I'll still make a profit on many of the books I purchased prior to CGC, but BUYING IN 2004, AT MARKET RATES, THEN SITTING ON THE BOOKS, IS A BAAAAAAAD FINANCIAL PLAN.

 

Now, I bet you'll come on with another tale of buying a longbox of Silver in 1975, and how profitable that was.

[delekkerste]

hey Gene, maybe I should send thi sin s PM, but what the hay - - -

why are you bidding on Filter's huge lot of Silver!?

jeeez.. Dont tell JC youre buying again!!! it'll kill em!

 

 

100K of old paper!!

 

Somehow I don't think my $9,000 bid is going to win that lot. I think it's safe to say that, even after TGC, those books will still be worth multiples of that amount. It's just a "watch" bid. No "irony" here, folks...nothing to see here, please move along.

[Aces]

As for baseball cards, I bought HG 50s and 60s star cards and sets at the end of the 80s. I recently sold them and nearly doubled what I spent on them back then. I was pleasantly surprised for two reasons: they turned out to be only 7s and 8s with a handful of 9s. And, I was convinced by all the "wags" on your side of the fence that Baseball cards had all TANKED!!

 

Wow, listen to my story:

 

In 1979-80, I bought several boxes of OPC hockey cards, and got a nice stack of Gretzky rookies. Those are still worth big bucks, and for $0.0002 per card I spent, I made a HUGE return, which is funny, since I heard sportscards had TANKED!!!

 

 

Now let's get back to reality.

 

It's not WHAT you bought, but WHEN you bought it. Had you purchased those same cards, at the APEX of the market in the 90's, I doubt you would have come out looking so good. Take my Gretzky rookie cards for example, had I bought them in the mid-90's and sold in 2004, then I would have lost money.

 

I FIRMLY believe we are at the APEX of the comic book market, and that in the future, returns will be few and far between, I'll still make a profit on many of the books I purchased prior to CGC, but BUYING IN 2004, AT MARKET RATES, THEN SITTING ON THE BOOKS, IS A BAAAAAAAD FINANCIAL PLAN.

 

Now, I bet you'll come on with another tale of buying a longbox of Silver in 1975, and how profitable that was.

 

Hey, about those sport cards.

What went south was the phoney spec cards like rare inserts and other stupid .

Now your key rookie cards of all-time greats are still doing OK.

As are the older stuff in high grade.

Try getting a PSA (Or SCG whatever) 7 NM of a 52 Topps common for less than 80-90% SMR on eBay.

And if it's an 8 NM/M look out!

[joe_collector]

What went south was the phoney spec cards like rare inserts and other stupid .

Now your key rookie cards of all-time greats are still doing OK.

As are the older stuff in high grade.

 

Trust me, they're not in terms of relative dollars

 

Check out the PSA 7 Gretzky rookies now, and then ask someone what a NM raw card was selling for in the early-90's.

 

Remember it's all relative, and what you see as "doing okay" may be quite different from those who pay full market value at the apex of the sportscard boom.

[Aces]

What went south was the phoney spec cards like rare inserts and other stupid .

Now your key rookie cards of all-time greats are still doing OK.

As are the older stuff in high grade.

 

Trust me, they're not in terms of relative dollars

 

Check out the PSA 7 Gretzky rookies now, and then ask someone what a NM raw card was selling for in the early-90's.

 

Remember it's all relative, and what you see as "doing okay" may be quite different from those who pay full market value at the apex of the sportscard boom.

 

Some of that may be eBay.

Remember before eBay (BE? )!?

 

You had to go to a card or comic shop, then bend over and grab your ankles.

 

If you were selling anything you got 10-30% of what you should get, maybe 50% if it was a great item like Hulk 1, early Mantle card, etc.

 

People (like me) refused to get over and didn't sell their 70s-80s stuff for for 10-20 cents on the dollar and just held on to it. Then along comes eBay and people can sell and buy at a fair price now.

 

That means the more common stuff from the 70s and 80s are now on the market so collectors have their want lists full, demand goes down.

[joe_collector]

Nah, I sold all my stuff private so I didn't get reamed too bad.

 

What affected card prices far more than EBay, has been a drastic downturn in the number of collectors and the total loss of the "kid buyer". It's even more adult-centric than comics are now, and I find that comics follow the sportscard model, offset by 8-10 years or so.

[Aman619]

As for baseball cards, I bought HG 50s and 60s star cards and sets at the end of the 80s. I recently sold them and nearly doubled what I spent on them back then. I was pleasantly surprised for two reasons: they turned out to be only 7s and 8s with a handful of 9s. And, I was convinced by all the "wags" on your side of the fence that Baseball cards had all TANKED!!

 

Wow, listen to my story:

 

In 1979-80, I bought several boxes of OPC hockey cards, and got a nice stack of Gretzky rookies. Those are still worth big bucks, and for $0.0002 per card I spent, I made a HUGE return, which is funny, since I heard sportscards had TANKED!!!

 

 

Now let's get back to reality.

 

It's not WHAT you bought, but WHEN you bought it. Had you purchased those same cards, at the APEX of the market in the 90's, I doubt you would have come out looking so good. Take my Gretzky rookie cards for example, had I bought them in the mid-90's and sold in 2004, then I would have lost money.

 

I FIRMLY believe we are at the APEX of the comic book market, and that in the future, returns will be few and far between, I'll still make a profit on many of the books I purchased prior to CGC, but BUYING IN 2004, AT MARKET RATES, THEN SITTING ON THE BOOKS, IS A BAAAAAAAD FINANCIAL PLAN.

 

Now, I bet you'll come on with another tale of buying a longbox of Silver in 1975, and how profitable that was.

 

 

D'oh! I have to keep reminding myself that whenever someone points ot a discrepancy in the "its all going to tank - - starting NOW" argument you keep making, that there is of course a clarification to be made.

 

JC, at the risk of sounding foolish, except for the incessant doom and gloom you spew, we seem to agree in principle about a few things. Once again, I only wish you could back off on the aggressive "you're all joiks!" routine to acknowledge it. It would help your credibility to not be so JC all the time.

 

we both agree that demographics are trending against the comics industry.

we both agree that HG commons are selling at unsustainably absurd multiples of late.

we both agree that all new manufactured speculables are doomed to crash and burn.

 

whats left to argue about...? Oh yeah:

 

I FIRMLY believe we are at the APEX of the comic book market!

 

the timing of the turnaround. I think you mean "I DESPERATELY believe!"

Guess we'll just never agree on that. Sure excessive enthusuasm is happening now with regularity. But there's still a lot of life in the old girl yet. Get in there and start buying chum!! you'll be a lot happier.

[joe_collector]

I FIRMLY believe we are at the APEX of the comic book market!

 

the timing of the turnaround. I think you mean "I DESPERATELY believe!"

Guess we'll just never agree on that. Sure excessive enthusuasm is happening now with regularity. But there's still a lot of life in the old girl yet. Get in there and start buying chum!! you'll be a lot happier.

 

Not really, as I never take part in a hobby that is being controlled and manipulated by the wallets of the foolish. Stupid people never have enough money to make a longterm impact anyway.

[Aman619]

you do realize you just called everyone stupid and foolish again...

 

 

sigh.....

Im trying to rehabilitate you, man! help me out a little..

 

and by "take part in". ...you mean, of course, other than making 9000+ posts in a hobby on the website of CGC who is responsible for and read by primarily those "controlled and manipulated by the wallets of the foolish" guys...

 

Okay, dont buy any books, I was only kidding... but lighten up.

[delekkerste]

Hey, about those sport cards.

What went south was the phoney spec cards like rare inserts and other stupid .

Now your key rookie cards of all-time greats are still doing OK.

As are the older stuff in high grade.

 

While I think it is worth comparing the upcoming TGC with the coin market example of the early 1990s, the sportscard example of the mid-1990s and even the end of the speculator comic craze of the early 1990s, I realize that many people, like yourself, will note that the highest quality coins, comics and cards have continued to appreciate until today, even as the more common items have never recovered from their speculative peaks. I think that this observation has given people the mistaken impression that the highest quality collectibles are thus somehow "bulletproof" (e.g., GA/SA keys and semi-keys in HG can never go down in price, and only the non-keys, books in low/mid grade and more plentiful Bronze/Modern books will go down if TGC ever comes).

 

However, I maintain that the cream has continued rising to the top because of the Great Asset Mania of the 1990s. Housing and stock prices went ballistic, as did income and debt levels. But, what happens when all this excess eventually gets unwound? Or, even if we've reached some "new permanent plateau of prosperity" (that's dangerous 1929-style talk, if you remember your history books), what happens if the rate of change in income growth/asset appreciation slows down? Surely even the most fervent collectibles bulls don't think we're going to relive the 1990s again. More likely, we'll be paying for the excess of the 1990s and early 2000s soon enough, and then even the cream of the comics crop will eventually be taking their lumps too.

[burntboy]

 

and by "take part in". ...you mean, of course, other than making 9000+ posts in a hobby on the website of CGC who is responsible for and read by primarily those "controlled and manipulated by the wallets of the foolish" guys...

 

Okay, dont buy any books, I was only kidding... but lighten up.

 

very astute, sir.............. i would agree that taking the time and effort to issue 9000+ posts (not to mention the untold number read and not responded to) was, indeed, taking part in the Hobby...........

 

i'd also like to ask JC if the statement is true that he predicted early on that the Spidey 2 movie was going to be a BIG BOMB because of some of the folks that were to be involved in the project (paraphrasing here)??

[joe_collector]

i'd also like to ask JC if the statement is true that he predicted early on that the Spidey 2 movie was going to be a BIG BOMB because of some of the folks that were to be involved in the project (paraphrasing here)??

 

I never said that at all, and you know it. You'd have to be a chimp to predict financial failure for a sequel to one of the top grossing movies of all time. Sony could release a test-pattern and still make $200 million on the opening week.

 

Man, the simpletons I have to deal with on here.

 

I made a few negative comments to do with the WRITING, as the producer brought her husband into the merry-go-round of STORY creation. There were so many writers involved, it's tough to say how much he hurt/affected the movie, but I always like to slam HW nepotism.

[Silver Surfer]

Marvel's (Timely) mistake in the GA was that for the first 6 years almost every Torch, Subby, MMC, Cap issue had a war cover on it. Gets pretty lame after a while

 

Lame! If it wasn't for all those fan--tastic Schomburg war covers, Timely's would be pretty weak. Inside, the few stories that are decently illustrated are generally still pretty stupid.

 

When I say "lame" its because its the same stuff over and over, not because the covers are not good. How many times do I have to see Toro or Bucky in trouble and here comes Cap and the Torch to the rescue. Torch burns through a tank, etc, etc.

[FastTransAm-migration]

Great thread with some great insight..heres my .02

 

 

I collect 5.0-8.5 SA books only. The reason being I cant afford the higher grade books. the vast majority of my collection is ungraded copys that I enjoy reading, as hokey as some of the SA stories are they retain a certain glow about them that is very enjoyable. I am begining to move more and more to only buying CGC books in the 5.0-8.5 range cuase I enjoy having the 'look' of a slabbed book...its just nice to gaze at and enjoy.

 

there will allways be a market for mid grade SA books as long as there are people on a budget like me who enjoy having a reading copy or the beauty of slabed book...even tho it may not be NM I dont care, it still looks great IMO and I enjoy it....thats all that really matters.

[Silver Surfer]

Yes there will always be a market for mid grade books but not slabbed ones unless they are early or key issues. FF#48 slabbed in 5.0 will have little appeal when you can easily find a raw copy in much better condition and probably cheaper.

[blowout]

Yes there will always be a market for mid grade books but not slabbed ones unless they are early or key issues. FF#48 slabbed in 5.0 will have little appeal when you can easily find a raw copy in much better condition and probably cheaper.

 

Its not even so much that, as mid grade slabbed books don't sell for guide multiples and can usually be picked up for similar prices to their raw counterparts. The real issue is the dis-incentive to slab mid grade non-key books for this very reason.

[joe_collector]

Its not even so much that, as mid grade slabbed books don't sell for guide multiples and can usually be picked up for similar prices to their raw counterparts.

 

As I'm not a brain-dead speculator, and could care less about "potential investment value", I like picking up some Keys in CGC 6.0-7.5, as many times, these were books the owner *thought* would hit a much higher grade, but there is some internal flaw that brought it down.

 

I have a few books like this, that look exceptionally nice, but have some "not visible in a slab" damage that brings them down.

[valiantman]

Check out the PSA 7 Gretzky rookies now, and then ask someone what a NM raw card was selling for in the early-90's.

I guess Ebay has provided a stable environment for repeatable sales... most importantly...

at whatever price the market will bear.

 

I bought a PSA 7 Gretzky OPC rookie in 1998 on Ebay for about $420.

Here's the same card 6 years later...

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=5100817247

 

Prior to Ebay, was it possible to follow public sales of cards or comics?

Were there any truly public sales... reaching to every home and collector?

Or was the market just "reported to everyone" through price guides?

 

I can safely say I never even SAW an actual Gretzky rookie visiting card shops...

I never saw a copy of Amazing Spider-man below #20...

No Detectives below #120... etc.

[dam60]

So I actually printed out this entire thread and read it on the train yesterday. I will say that this is one of the best threads that I have read in a long time!

 

Here are a few thoughts:

1 - Rising Prices, a double edged sword?

If prices are too high you price a certain segment of the population out of the market. Gene said this very eloquently and he's completely right. However, the other side of the coin would be this: these conistently high prices have given liquidity and increased INVESTOR interest/awareness to the market for HG slabs and keys Who will win at the end? I don't know.

 

2 - Intellectual Property at its Zenith; Pamphlet Medium at its Nadir?

Let's face it - 1978 Superman, 1989 Batman, the Spider-Man and X-Men frachises - they are BIG winners. People know who these characters are throughout the world and really enjoy them! But what's happening with the actual pamplet comics? I would say that although sales are up from its "all time?" nadir of 1998, comic monthly sales are not healthy and are actually even worse in relation to how hugely successful the movie franchises have become. So why is that? These are my thoughts:

a - comics are too "decompressed" and are VERY expensive relative to other forms of entertainment

b - comics aren't accessible to the casual or prospective fan; if you want a comic you have to go to a specialty retailer to get one! Long gone are the days of the spinner racks.

c - marvel / dc is not doing enough to promote the readership missing key opportunities with the overwhelming success of the movies. (let's face it - how hard would it be to have a 30 second ad at the beginning of the films saying "check out all of [insert character of your choice]'s adventures every month at your local comic store! For the location nearest you call 1-888-COMIC-BOOK"

 

3 - relevance of the GA and the SA

as has been pointed out before people who want a fun read would really enjoy a GA or a SA comics (GA in particular) but people who want "literature" would be better suited towards ECs (God, I love these things. Just finished Two Fisted Tales annuals; really great stuff) or some of the better BA / Modern books! I still really enjoy some of the great Denny O'Neill GA/GL or Bat books, Roy Thomas Conan's, etc. And just look at Vertigo! People who buy the SA or the GA are buying as collectors not readers. The final nail in this coffin - if you did really want to read it, you could always buy an Archive / Essential / TPB for pennies on the dollar[/b]

 

4 - Conclusions - what does the future hold?

Here's my thoughts: the absolute best material will always have a market so long as there are collectors. On the flip side the beat-but-complete readers will always have a market so long as there are collectors. Being stuck in the middle is no place for either maintaining your purchase price or asset appreciation but I would say that the lower grades will always adjust accordingly for inflation and what not and the higher grades is really th place to be if you have the risk appetite for the higher rewards. As someone else pointed out, people go to cons to look at the HG stuff or the bargain bin stuff. Carrying long box and long box full of mid grade books seems to be a losing proposition. Can this change? Sure, insert about 300K NEW collectors into the mix. I myself am someone who came back to the hobby after roughly a 8 year hiatius but we need to attract the current 5th graders and LOTS of them. Will it happen? Well, the potential is there but Marvel doesn't seem to be capitalizing on it. Investors will stay in as long as there is money but with more of an investor based clientele I view higher volatility. If the money does dry up and if it does come to a point where the "greatest fool" doesn't come to buy at yet another record I see a swift but sure drop in the HG slabs. The LG stuff will keep chugging along and won't be affected but as is often true, with less risk there are less rewards.

 

I think I went into a little bit of a rant there at the end but that's what I am thinking.

 

Thanks,

 

DAM