First sign of comic book Apocolypse

[valiantman]

While the CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 selling for $969 is the original item in this topic,

it is important to note that few, if ANY, Valiant books in CGC 9.4 condition

sell for more than the average cost of the book "raw" plus the CGC grading.

Some don't break even.

 

Several have mentioned that they know the pre-Unity books are "out there"...

and it's true that they are. Some have suggested they should be submitting

their early Valiant books to CGC and "flip" for cash to fund other purchases...

which is fine, too.

 

But... please remember this comment about CGC 9.4... few break even.

Most 9.6's (yes, pre-Unity Valiant CGC 9.6s) are often right at break even prices, too.

 

If you're looking to "cash in" with CGC, it's going to take high quality submissions.

Otherwise, you might be better of just selling "ungraded" on Ebay.

Good luck!

[DawgPhan]

Let me understand you properly? You fail to understand the laws of supply and demand I gather? You're amazed by the sale of a Harbinger#1 CGC 9.8 with 3 in the census, and roughly 49,000 copies TOTAL ever printed?

 

You collect Silverage, so do I, and know what...there are TONS more VF-NM copies of Amazing Spider-Man#...50 lets say, then Harb#1. ASM#50 had OVER a 300,000 print run...THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND copies.

 

Nothing to understand actually, Valiants DO have a solid and "valiant" fanbase, and they're older now, and back collecting..high grade copies. Mark these words 10 years time, Overstreet will list a NM Harbinger#1 in the $75-100 rage.

 

BTW...Marvels BEST years after the Lee/Kirby days were the Jim Shooter run years. HE helped create, ran, edited, and wrote, many of the early Valiant books, I personally think that means a LOT, as a Marvelite myself.

 

Hey I love valiant as much as the next guy as long as the next guy isnt greg. but there is some screwy stuff going on with them right now. Also I think you are forget the DEMAND side of supply and demand. You see just because there is not a lot of something doesnt mean that it is rare. Rare implies that not everyone could have one if they wanted it. Seeing how they are still making Spier-man comics, oh and movies and toys and underoos and posters and silly putty and paper plates and well I think that you get the picture, I think that Spider-man is in a little more demand than the harbinger kids. My classic example of this is a limited edition Ultraverse action figure. Only 5000 made. I recently sold 2 of them for $2 each just to get rid of them. If this was a Han Solo from the POTF2 line it would have been worth a great deal more...Ultraverse figures are like Valiants and POTF2 is like Spider-man. POTF2 is hugely popular...Ultraverse is not..Remember it is supply AND demand...

[Ugly American-migration]

Okee Dokee...lets straighten things out here:

 

Blowout...I don't think i'm overstating anything actually, and here is why. Below are the EXACT circulation numbers for Amazing Spider-Man# 50 in July 1967...(361,663)

 

Now, the math/hypothesis can only fucntion so far on fact, but I personally would believe at LEAST 200,000 of those books are still around today. I'd go further and guess that roughly 50% of that number are in the VF-NM range, hence STATISTICALLY making a Harbinger#1 CGC 9.8 a bit more rare.

 

I was NEVER truly "comparing" the Spidey fanbase to a Harbinger fanbase, that would not only be numerically a waste of time, but assanine. However, my initial point to Clobber was simply to claim that asking "why" this book sold for what it did was silly based on the numbers. I have little doubt myself that long term, Valiant cir numbers will be low comparably, and HIGH grade(as Gregg points out) copies will ALWAYS be in demand, from this day forth.

 

Dawgphan sorry, but I understand the "demand" aspect of this discussion quite well my friend, perhaps you do not. You cannot argue the "demand" aspect of the Harb#1 9.8..it SOLD for big dollars...THAT'S THE DEMAND! Search other Valiant HIGH grade books, like an Solar#1 9.8 that I believe sold for $400+ and I could find more. ANYONE who thinks this is another "Valiant speculator" market driving these "insanse" prices, just doesn't have their finger on the pulse i'm sorry to say. THIS demand, is driven by rabid Valiant fans, who DO exist, and are now older with cash as I stated.

 

The Spider-Man comparision was offered for perspective in numbers, not truly to compare the characters. I still feel it is a solid point, after all...361,366 copies of anything, anywhere, is a LOT..and the 60's being the Comic Book heyday left PLENTY of high grade copies out there for the few that can actually afford them.

 

A market and its "demand" are only validated by what someone else is willing to pay for the product in that market, and that is the end...thankfully

[DawgPhan]

First off all you must compare the 2 fanbases if you are going to talk about supply and demand using spidey numbers against harbinger numbers. You cant take the part that proves your point and leave out the part that doesnt. First there is NO WAY there are 1000 vf/nm copies of spider-man 50 out there...just not going to happen. That book is nearly 40 years old. You honestly believe that nearly 1/3 of all copies published that year are in vf/nm? Really? Wow? Anyway given that I dont agree with your "statistics" I will say that there are probably 100,000 hard core spider-man fans out there who would love to have old high grade issues of spider-man and are willing to pay for it. There are probably fewer than 20 hardcore harbinger fans out there willing to spend big bucks on a HG copy...see the difference there..That is the demand side. This sale is the result of 2 guys that "must have it right now". They have very deep pockets and are not the market, but they are just creating their own market. A one where nothing makes sense..I think that I have my "finger on the pulse" of the market. I never doubted that this book would go for this I just dont think that I can agree with it...

[Sharkey]

I liked the Valiant stories for the first 2 years ans thought Shooter was an excellent story teller and marketer. But - Valiant was always about the manufactured collectible - alleged low print runs, logo variants etc. There may have only been 50k Harbinger 1s and besides the ones with the coupon cut out, there are probably at least half those in nm condition i would bet. I was selling these books in the early 90s and the guys that bought them at $120 a pop were middle age guys with brief cases - you know the type that comes to the con with a brief case to carry around his comics. I was at that same con as Donut in Charlotte in 92 as a dealer - and if Donut was indeed there, then he saw the same stacks and stacks of these rare issues as I did. By the end of the Con, those books werent selling for $100 anymore- I don't think anyone was buying at $30! These books were bought purely for storage and speculation so I would bet most are sti;ll like fresh off the presses. And would you be selling a book you paid $100 for 10 years ago for double guide or $15 now? I imagine those people are waiting for the guide to catch up to their foresight and wisdom in paying whjat they did back then. I am not knocking the books or stories themselves though - they were far better stories than Marvel or Image for sure so buy them for the great stories but spending 100s of dollars seems foolish all over again. And i dug thru my stuff to find my early Valiants and I still have almost complete pre-unity runs including Magnus 0 , Harbinger, Rai 1-5 and Solar 1-10 which I remember being some of the more expensive ones- I dont think any are 9.8 but certainly 9.2/9.4. I had a bunch of Magnus 1 a nd they still have stickers from the last con I sat up at in 1995 - stickers were $6 and apparently none sold!

 

 

I flipped a ton of Valiants at the time, just like Donut describes. EVERYBODY wanted Valiants and Wizard was hype-ing them like freakin' crazy so that every fanboy, comic speculator, and sports card guy wanted Valiants because they were so hot hot hot! But if my memory serves me, the really early issues had some production problems. I remember that spine stresses were really common in the early issues; I passed on a lot of books because they had a few stresses and I knew my customers were picky and wanted only minty mint copies. I had one guy that used to look at the corners with a magnifying glass. But truly NM/M copies were to be found. Bulldog used to sell the early Valiants by the 10-pack and that's where I got most of my original stock of the pre-Unity books. When the crash hit, it hit hard and it hit fast. One week people were buying Harbinger 1 for $125 no questions asked, and literally a month later you couldn't GIVE them away. Fortunately before the implosion I ended up trading a stack of Valiants for a high-grade TOS39, FF3, and TTA27. Best deal I ever made.....

 

You are right, those copies ARE out there, but they are buried in speculators' collections and probably still in some retailer's overstock warehouse and likely won't see the light of day until the guide values or sustained ebay sales justify dusting them off and putting them out for sale. And it'll happen. A lot of people got burned (especially all the sports card people who thought they were going to get rich from Valiants but knew nothing about the market AT ALL) and lost a ton of money speculating on Valiants and probably aren't eager to revisit them.

 

Anecdotally, there were people at ChicagoCon asking for them, many times. Whether that's a trend or not? Time will tell. Right now, if you have a legit 9.8 candidate, get it slabbed and make some money. Why not?

 

The unfortunate thing is that people seem to remember Valiants akin to the 1929 stock crash. They are AWESOME comics! The Jim Shooter issues were KICK- stories and the Layton/Lapham/BWS art was killer. Great books, definitely way worth reading. Post Unity they went crazy trying to cash in and the books went downhill. Once Aerosmith made a guest appearance in Shadowman, you KNEW it was over.... Seriously though, Shooter's departure was the turning point. The books lost their edge and then the speculation killed them. I'd like to see Shooter get back in because he came up with great stuff as mentioned before. IMHO the Valiant stories rank as some of the all-time best comics. And Unity was a crossover done right. Great stories, art, etc.

[Ugly American-migration]

MY last post on this subject will be this one...I hope

 

Dawgphan..if you seriously believe there are only "20" Valiant fans willing to buy that Harbinger# 1...operative word being "willing" not capable(monetary circumstances affect everyones buying) I suggest you take a trip to Valiantmans website and check out the "member list"...try HUNDREDS...easily

 

And YES, I do believe there are THOUSANDS of high grade ASM issues out there, I own many of them myself Are they CHEAP? no, are they out there, yes.

 

Oh, and yes...TWO people bidding IS a market, didn't you take Economics 101? what makes a "market" then? A market is a product driven environment in which however many people are willing to pay a price for said product, period. If lets say 20 years from now there are only 5 people willing and capable of buying that Harb# 1 9.8 at an acceptable exponential rate, then that's good enough. A market does not need thousands of potential buyers to cause demand, it simply needs ANY demand in order to sell..at MARKET rate...established by the buyer.

[joe_collector]

Below are the EXACT circulation numbers for Amazing Spider-Man# 50 in July 1967...(361,663). I personally would believe at LEAST 200,000 of those books are still around today. I'd go further and guess that roughly 50% of that number are in the VF-NM range.

 

Okay, so you're saying that 100,000 (a hundred thousand) copies of ASM 50 (1967) in VF/NM or better exist, as of 2004?

 

If so, then I hope you brought enough of what you're smoking for the entire class.

[DawgPhan]

MY last post on this subject will be this one...I hope

 

Dawgphan..if you seriously believe there are only "20" Valiant fans willing to buy that Harbinger# 1...operative word being "willing" not capable(monetary circumstances affect everyones buying) I suggest you take a trip to Valiantmans website and check out the "member list"...try HUNDREDS...easily

 

And YES, I do believe there are THOUSANDS of high grade ASM issues out there, I own many of them myself Are they CHEAP? no, are they out there, yes.

 

Oh, and yes...TWO people bidding IS a market, didn't you take Economics 101? what makes a "market" then? A market is a product driven environment in which however many people are willing to pay a price for said product, period. If lets say 20 years from now there are only 5 people willing and capable of buying that Harb# 1 9.8 at an acceptable exponential rate, then that's good enough. A market does not need thousands of potential buyers to cause demand, it simply needs ANY demand in order to sell..at MARKET rate...established by the buyer.

 

Funny that you mention that I should head over there and check out the member list...I AM ON THAT MEMBER LIST. I have been since the VC.com boards 1.0

 

I was talking about people who are in the market for high grade harbingers at that price...you really cant be this dense can you? Clearly there are tons of people who love valiants and will buy them. I am one of them. However few of the valiant collectors on that site actually buy slabbed valiants..Even few of them would be willing to drop the major coin on that particular book. Also of the BSD of the valiant world many of them are not even members of that board. Man I am glad that you went here.

 

Secondly you are saying that there are somewhere around 1 million high grade spidey's from 1967 out there...Is that really something that you want to stand behind? Over 1 million high grade spideys still exist from 1967? WOW...I would have never figured that....You are figuring that somewhere around 1/3 of all comics around 40 years old are still in high grade...1/3? wow...that is not bad...I wonder why everyone is droping some much coin on these books..

 

No 2 people is not a market. 2 people thinking that they will be anything to get this copy is not a market..a market is the average of tons of sales..Then we can get a true market...I guess if you only took mirco...2 sellers could be a market, but I think that macro would give you a better sense of what is really happening..or did you never get past that 101 course?

[Ugly American-migration]

well..it was VF to NM NOT VF/NM 9.0 range all...but YES!!!!

 

I do believe close to that number exists, why don't you? At MOST 10-15% of all high grade copies of ANY book have been graded to date, possibly less. To be even more specific, I personally know three individuals with ASM# 50 books that are soild CGC level 9.4 copies. These people have ZERO interest in grading their books, as I suspect MANY others do as well.

 

I think if anyone is deluded here its YOU Joe. Then again, you've personally decried the demise of this hobby for YEARS now haven't you...in 2002 nope, 2003, nope 2004 nope...I suggest you don't gamble. You're not exactly a "reliable" persona to listen to given your track record Get REAL...the book is LESS than 30 years old, and had 361,366 copies printed. What logical intellect would assume most in nice grades were gone?..in 27 years? Wake up...that's coffee you're smelling dude

[Ugly American-migration]

Obviously, you're proving too ignorant to understand my point. Your own rebuttles, or attempts at such run rampant with made up assumptions and nonsense. TONS of sales make a market?

 

So, if a house is selling for 1,000,000 dollars and two bidders compete for that house with one bid being accepted...that's not a market correct? That's just two insufficiently_thoughtful_persons bidding on a house in NO market....sheesh you're thick

[FlamingCarrot]

I'm afraid to ask UglyAmerican how many copies of ASM #1 still exist today in high grade.

[DawgPhan]

I'm afraid to ask UglyAmerican how many copies of ASM #1 still exist today in high grade.

 

Probably about 1/3 of the total print run...

[Ugly American-migration]

WOW..you guys really don't do much homework do you? Were "Grades" important to you during your schooling years, as oppose to your Comic Book collecting?

 

74,000+ ASM# 1 copies were printed...obviously MOST are gone, and high grade truly rare. You're not actually comparing ASM# 50 to # 1 are you?..Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh, I get it, ALL ASM# are rare, and in much less numerical availability, got it

[DawgPhan]

..the book is LESS than 30 years old, and had 361,366 copies printed. What logical intellect would assume most in nice grades were gone?..in 27 years? Wake up...that's coffee you're smelling dude

 

I am still trying to figure this one out...ASM #50 1967 Today is Aug 23, 2004

 

How is that 27 years..or even less than 30 years old? By my calculations this book should be about 37 years old or less than 40... I would say much about it but you said it TWICE in your post. Honestly if you can subtract do you really want us to take you seriously?

 

Also houses are different since there really is only 1 house like it. The house next door is not the same house. A 9.8 Harbinger 1 is very similar if not exactly the same as any other Harbinger 1 in 9.8. But yes it takes more than 2 people to really make an honest to god market that means anything..

[Ugly American-migration]

Correct, 37 years...yup, makes an enormous difference with almost 400,000 books printed

 

"Also houses are different since there really is only 1 house like it. The house next door is not the same house"

 

Now THAT statement borders on ridiculous. Were talking market/rarity here correct? You can most certainly find "similar" homes if not exact in a neighborhood, furthermore its how many people can afford that house that ultimately makes the market, not the amount of people bidding, or past "similar sales"(like you first said). You're making my points for me dawg, i'm only trying to help you

 

Now you want to justify your argument by making corrections in what can and can't be used to substantiate the counter point?...sheesh

[Ze-man]

Obviously, you're proving too ignorant to understand my point. Your own rebuttles, or attempts at such run rampant with made up assumptions and nonsense.

 

As I sit here eating my lunch trying to skim read the past 5 days of threads that I have not seen.

 

I only have 1 question.

 

Who are you Ugly American?.. it is obvious you started this new shill accnt. to post with, your past knowledge of board members and events go back years.

(mainly your comment to JC about his crash predictions, 2002, 2003 2004.. etc..)

 

So I just have to ask.. who are you?.. why hide under a shill?

To try and make any kind of point in a thread here under a false/shill name seems hollow and pointless to me.

If you left the forum recently in a flame war hissy fit, drama queen exit stage left.... who cares..come back as yourself and make your points under your original name.You obviously have opinions to share .. your knowlege, and opinions of the market , and comics is a given.

 

Or just go away.. my time is already short.

 

Just my opinion from the cheap seats.

 

 

Z

[Red Hook]

[drbanner]

I only have 1 question.

 

Who are you Ugly American?

 

I thought everyone knew who he is.

[Ugly American-migration]

Ze-man...i'm sorry to deflate some conspiracy theory you may have about ME, but this is my first and ONLY participation on these boards since they've existed. I cannot, nor will I defend that statement, one can either believe it or not, but its the truth. As for READING these boards, i've done so for years now, is that a CGC forum crime i'm unaware of?

 

AS for who I actually am? what does that really matter? Most folks haven't been particularly nice to me since I came aboard, and who I am outside of these boards in MY business and MY right to pass on such knowledge to whom I see fit and when. I have ZERO obligation to do so, and won't be "bullied" into doing it either.

 

Two weeks i've been coming into the boards, lets see how things go and give sometime to learn about one another before lynchings begin

[Ze-man]

.. me thinks you doth protest too much.

 

 

Have it your way..

Your a long time listener.. first time caller.

 

I can live with that.

 

But if you dont want the board to "lynch" you.. then I suggest a better bedside manner.

You can be right as rain in your facts ,about every statement in every post you make.. but if you continue with your current "insult as many people as I can, in every post I make , and "berate them for being wrong".. then my suggestion is to go back.. lurk for another 4 years, learn how behave here... and try again in 2008.

 

Z