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"Hot" Moderns Whose Value Has Plummeted The Most?

Started by The Kaptain,

128 posts in this topic

HarveySwick

HarveySwick

Posted
Posted

You don't find that Bedlams are still dropping? hm

 

I mean, you can pick up a #1 for like $30!

And about a week ago three weeks ago I finally won an auction for a #2 Phantom for like $46 with shipping and one sold last night for like $27! doh!

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Iceman399

Iceman399

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Posted
The only time Bedlam really dropped was right after launch.

 

Bedlam was on an uptick last I looked, I love the series and the book and with the number of variants and speculators that picked this up it has taken a long slow time to get moving. Right at launch all the variants graded were going for great amounts, now they have settled down a fair amount.

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eightclaps

eightclaps

Posted
Posted
...tanked like TSG/Revival @9.9

 

It's a bit unfair to say these two books tanked or are tanking. In my opinion, these books never should have reached close to four figure sales in the first place and the ones that went for that much reflect irrational speculators instead of the value of the books.

 

For Revival, you can't compare anything to how much Hulk44 bought the #1 9.9s for. Those prices are complete outliers and he completely overpaid.

 

For TSG, the #1 raw cost less than cover before the pilot announcement. Because of the increased visibility and the new readers from the possible TV show, the #1 9.8 now sells for at least $250 (without a TV show in place). I'd say the book is finding success rather than tanking. Speculators were absolutely nuts for ever buying the book for $800+ in the first place (and that's coming from as big of a fan of the series as there can be).

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CBT

CBT

Posted
Posted

i agree that prices were way to high, but I disagree with two of your conclusions:

 

1.) That TSG is a $250 book without TV speculation. Name ANY modern book that is $250 without a movie or TV rumor. (Even at the peak of its early speculation, Thief of Thieves never got that high)

 

2.) That one can ignore the high prices set. In all things speculative (not just comics), people are always only willing to pay more than past prices, with the expectation of being able to sell for more later (if they so choose). I think people are crazy for paying over $1K for Walking Dead #1 9.8s, let alone over $2K. But as long as they believe that the future holds more value, it will continue climbing.

 

When a book (or any economic instrument) falls from a high and clearly shows it cannot reach that price again, a sentiment change occurs. People don't want to "invest" in something when there is a falling ceiling for future value. If anything, they wait to see how low it will go.

 

Before things like TSG or Revival 9.9 can recover from being over paid for, and having the bottom fall out, they need to find the floor, hit it, and then look to bounce off of it.

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brendanb438

brendanb438

Posted
Posted
The only time Bedlam really dropped was right after launch.

 

Bedlam was on an uptick last I looked, I love the series and the book and with the number of variants and speculators that picked this up it has taken a long slow time to get moving. Right at launch all the variants graded were going for great amounts, now they have settled down a fair amount.

 

Out of all the books mentioned in this thread Bedlam is the only one I read everyone month. I have a stack of NWM books to read (missing #3 so I am trying to find any print of it to read 1-5 in order). Anyone want to hook a brother up with a copy of #3 of NWM, condition doesn't matter at all. :)

 

Back to Bedlam though I am really enjoying this book and also like how we have something similar to watch on TV right now with Hannibal. This show has a hell of a cast and I am really enjoying it right now. Up there with Game of Thrones, The Borgias and Defiance as the shows I try to catch weekly.

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CBT

CBT

Posted
Posted
yea, when the f is TWD going to tank????

 

I'd look to any non-key issues right now, i am sure they are feeling the pressure. WD #1 is the modern market cornerstone, the market would have to capitulate as a whole for that to happen. Right now its more a of a reversal on all the speculative money that's poured in in the last 6 -12 months.

 

But if the US stops buying its own debt to the tune of 80 billion a month, and interest rates start to rise, cutting off the cheap credit/debt, look for the whole market to roil. (Of course we'll probably have bigger problems than comic books at that point, 2008 round two....)

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ItsJustRyan

ItsJustRyan

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Posted

A few cents from me:

 

(1) everything is cyclical... Keep that in mind. Last summer was similar.

 

(2) CBT: Saga was a $250 book without movie/TV hype... Just sayin' it can happen

 

(3) when October rolls around, the dead will rise (quote me)

 

(4) there are too many variables in play to point to one reason why a title does/does not do well. Bedlam is a great example. I'm biased because I love it, but I don't think early hype/variants are the sole reason prices have leveled off. Eventually supply and demand meet and things level off... Nuff said.

 

(5) so many titles out is a good and bad thing. Not everyone has 20-30+ titles on their pull list. Adding a new series means letting an old one (in these cases six months to a year old) go.

 

(6) it's tempting to look at any market in the micro sense (what's happening right now today) and make long term generalizations, "the apacolypse is near." Looking at the "big picture," comic readership has increased, validated from several sources (google it). That says a lot for the health of the market.

 

(7) if you are still in doubt, visit a comic con this summer and see what you think about the demand of comics.

 

(8) people need heroes... What would a summer be without a super hero blockbuster lol - my point is that comics are a part of our culture.

 

(9) In every type of work I have ever done, certain times of the year had upswings and down swings. Comics are no different.

 

(10) and just to get to #10.... Hype alone can't sustain a title. The quality has got to be there and guys and gals have to be willing to give it a shot.

 

 

My 2c - Happy M-Day all and :hi: to my Boardie friends (you know I'm just pickin' on ya CBT)

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HarveySwick

HarveySwick

Posted
Posted
A few cents from me:

 

(1) everything is cyclical... Keep that in mind. Last summer was similar.

 

(2) CBT: Saga was a $250 book without movie/TV hype... Just sayin' it can happen

 

(3) when October rolls around, the dead will rise (quote me)

 

(4) there are too many variables in play to point to one reason why a title does/does not do well. Bedlam is a great example. I'm biased because I love it, but I don't think early hype/variants are the sole reason prices have leveled off. Eventually supply and demand meet and things level off... Nuff said.

 

(5) so many titles out is a good and bad thing. Not everyone has 20-30+ titles on their pull list. Adding a new series means letting an old one (in these cases six months to a year old) go.

 

(6) it's tempting to look at any market in the micro sense (what's happening right now today) and make long term generalizations, "the apacolypse is near." Looking at the "big picture," comic readership has increased, validated from several sources (google it). That says a lot for the health of the market.

 

(7) if you are still in doubt, visit a comic con this summer and see what you think about the demand of comics.

 

(8) people need heroes... What would a summer be without a super hero blockbuster lol - my point is that comics are a part of our culture.

 

(9) In every type of work I have ever done, certain times of the year had upswings and down swings. Comics are no different.

 

(10) and just to get to #10.... Hype alone can't sustain a title. The quality has got to be there and guys and gals have to be willing to give it a shot.

 

 

My 2c - Happy M-Day all and :hi: to my Boardie friends (you know I'm just pickin' on ya CBT)

What he said!! :golfclap:

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kimik

kimik

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Posted

This is why I have been sticking to flipping my moderns raw. Unless I can be the first one or two in with the 9.8, it is not worth to waste the time on slabbing.

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CBT

CBT

Posted
Posted
A few cents from me:

(1) everything is cyclical... Keep that in mind. Last summer was similar.

 

I can agree with that, BUT, bigger rises will induce bigger drops. I dont think the "bubble has burst" yet. I have been saying for about two months now that I think we will see increased volatility first, (higher highs, lower lows, and less time in between).

 

 

(2) CBT: Saga was a $250 book without movie/TV hype... Just sayin' it can happen

 

I'd say it peaked as a $200 book, but yes, it definitely can happen. I asked him to list examples, and saga is not currently one ;)

 

 

(3) when October rolls around, the dead will rise (quote me)

 

I thought it faltered last fall and am impressed how much it recovered. Though I think more and more of the money is focusing into #1 (with the other early keys falling). I think as more of the hyped up 2012/2013 crops falter, it will continue to pull money into the "safer" WD #1. I have said for years that eventually WD will have a day of reckoning, my view on that has not changed. But I do not believe it will happen without external forces first. (higher interest rates hampering debt, the show ending, etc).

 

 

(4) there are too many variables in play to point to one reason why a title does/does not do well. Bedlam is a great example. I'm biased because I love it, but I don't think early hype/variants are the sole reason prices have leveled off. Eventually supply and demand meet and things level off... Nuff said.

 

I agree. Though I think it was because someone overpaid so much for the first to market with a 9.8. There was MAD speculator interest, all the con guys were saying how hard it would be in 9.8, etc. Then boom, first sale was $500. Every then went bananas trying to go all in on Bedlam, and when no other sale could come even close to the $500, the prices dropped quickly.

 

It all happened BEFORE the release of number 1 proper, which essentially took the secondary market out of the picture. Without the secondary market, Image is back to its pre-WD era early 2000s level of interest (aka not a whole lot). That gives you the massive oversupply of copies that needs to be sop'd up before any movement can occur.

 

That's my view on it anyway.

 

(5) so many titles out is a good and bad thing. Not everyone has 20-30+ titles on their pull list. Adding a new series means letting an old one (in these cases six months to a year old) go.

 

Agreed, its tough to pick and choose. I've been pruning for a few months, and its getting hard to do.

 

(6) it's tempting to look at any market in the micro sense (what's happening right now today) and make long term generalizations, "the apacolypse is near." Looking at the "big picture," comic readership has increased, validated from several sources (google it). That says a lot for the health of the market.

 

I agree. Primary market is doing great on the backs of the TV and Movies. Lots of old collectors coming back, lots of new ones joining. I think the secondary market has been pretty bubbly in the last year or two. All bubbles eventually correct, i think what we see now is a minor correction and some SERIOUS gains across all Image books in the past 3/4 of a year.

 

(7) if you are still in doubt, visit a comic con this summer and see what you think about the demand of comics.

 

I'm a closet comic-fan, don't really like it to be known to my "real-life" friends. I tend to avoid cons, last one I went to was in 09 or 10. Seriously considering going to FanExpo this year though.

 

(8) people need heroes... What would a summer be without a super hero blockbuster lol - my point is that comics are a part of our culture.

 

Amen. Make mine Marvel all day. Love the modern comic movies done in a serious way.

 

(9) In every type of work I have ever done, certain times of the year had upswings and down swings. Comics are no different.

 

I do agree, but I think its fair to say its a little more pronounced this year, only cause the gains were a fair bit bigger this year as well. People are getting gun shy because of several big burns lately, TSG being the biggest.

 

(10) and just to get to #10.... Hype alone can't sustain a title. The quality has got to be there and guys and gals have to be willing to give it a shot.

 

Agreed.

 

My 2c - Happy M-Day all and :hi: to my Boardie friends (you know I'm just pickin' on ya CBT)

 

I'm more than just a pair of big charts... :grin: ... Happy M-day to my American Brothers and Sisters. My mom was born in the US, so technically I'm part American too ;)lol

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