Low grade keys vs high grade nonkeys

[Beige]

ASM 172 is not a key. Absolutely no one cares about the Rocket Racer. This book is almost the living definition of a non-key book. You appear to be mistaken about how much it sells for.

 

If you were going to cherry-pick a run of ASM 150-200, 172 would be in the bottom half of the books, not the top half. The run's only big key is 194, but I'd pick 161, 162, 174-180 (punisher and goblin appearances), 185 (Peter's graduation), and 200 out of the run as very minor keys.

 

 

Keys 99/100 times.

 

Does the first appearance of Rocket racer (ASM #172) have more value than the next issue?

 

There probably isn't a more minor key than RR - but the answer is yes!

A 9.8 sells for $400 ish, ASM #173, nowhere near it.

 

The more 'important' the key, the larger the disparity. My collection is 100% first appearances, ans I am confident that they will hold their value whilst I enjoy them.

 

 

That's the whole point of the statement friend.

The book is a non-entity as you say. Total agreement with you.

Yet CGC notate that it is a "First Appearance".

 

As for prices - it has a top of $390 and is currently averaging $170.

 

Now an ASM 9.8 of any issue number has value, so most 'non-keys' have a reasonable price as well.

The big difference is the NUMBER of books - the "key" 172 has 66 sales

#173 - it has 11.

I was merely saying that a book perceived as a key, or at least the first appearance of a character - no matter how minor, will be more sought after than those that don't.

 

And I used Rocket Racer as I couldn't think of a less awesome character as he!

I guess in your haste to spit out your rebuttal, that you missed that very obvious point.

[ttfitz]

So I figure follow Warren Buffet and buy what you like and you will rarely go wrong.

 

I can't see Warren Buffett ever saying something like that. Could you point me to where he said this?

 

I think he's probably thinking of Peter Lynch and his "Invest in what you know" philosophy.

[Marvel Zombie]

There is an enormous public attention on the major keys these years. And this increasingly makes a lot of people recognize the huge cultural significance attached to an *extremely small circle* of specific books. However these specific books have historically been lumped togeher with all the other books in different runs just as "comic books". But in a not so distant future these few giga keys could easily compete with modern pop-artworks by Roy Lichtenstein and A. Warhole. And if such a scenario starts to come around then you can add one (or two) zeroes to current FMV. The demand is exploding on Cap1 Action 1, etc. and there are so few in existence and even fewer changing hands in the public. So forget that for instance Tec27 is issue #27 in a run of hundreds of tec-comic books. It is not. It is a unique cultural artefact of which there is perhaps only 100 or 200 copies in existence.

[Hamlet]

173 has fewer sales because it has one third of the copies in 9.8 condition, not because it is in less demand. It's a harder book to find. When it sells, it sells for more than the 172 does.

 

The 173's last four sales have been from $270 to $400, compared to a $157 twelve month average for the 172.

 

Heck, since you went back to 2006 to mention the $390 sale of the 172, why don't you mention the $2125 sale of 173 in 2010?

 

I'm not sure how you could look at GPA and come to the conclusion that people are paying a premium for 172 compared to the books around it.

 

As someone else mention in the thread, the prices of these non-key Spidey books center around the census numbers.

 

 

That's the whole point of the statement friend.

The book is a non-entity as you say. Total agreement with you.

Yet CGC notate that it is a "First Appearance".

 

As for prices - it has a top of $390 and is currently averaging $170.

 

Now an ASM 9.8 of any issue number has value, so most 'non-keys' have a reasonable price as well.

The big difference is the NUMBER of books - the "key" 172 has 66 sales

#173 - it has 11.

I was merely saying that a book perceived as a key, or at least the first appearance of a character - no matter how minor, will be more sought after than those that don't.

 

And I used Rocket Racer as I couldn't think of a less awesome character as he!

I guess in your haste to spit out your rebuttal, that you missed that very obvious point.

[Sqeggs]

Your comments lead me to another very, very broad and perhaps unanswerable question. For speculation's purposes, let's remove the top 7 keys from the question: Action 1, Tec 27, Superman 1, AA 16, Marvel 1, Batman 1, Cap 1. Absent these keys, what annual rate of return do you think the general GA superhero market is currently at? Compress low grade, high grade, restored, keys, classic covers, bad covers, everything, to one percentage:

 

-0%? 2%? 5%? 7%? etc.

 

Ah, one of the hardy perennials of board topics. No one really has any idea what the future will hold, but everyone loves to speculate! My thoughts:

 

1. For the average Joe, comics are a very, very risky investment. I assume here that we are considering buying books with the hope that they are worth significantly more 10+ years down the road.

 

2. As a an investment, comics are illiquid and involve high transactions costs. As an average Joe (not a big dealer and without direct access to high-income collectors) you are buying at retail and selling at wholesale. Say you buy a GA book for $20,000 in the upcoming HA auction. Taking into account the BP, SP, and taxes -- never forget taxes if you are talking about an investment -- you need the book to increase to at least $25,000 just to break even.

 

3. With an investment, you have to keep your eye on your real, after-tax return. With even a continuation of the current modest inflation rates, add another $5,000 to the price you will need to sell that $20,000 book for 10 years from now just to compensate for the effects of inflation. And, of course, the IRS levies taxes on your nominal return, not your real return.

 

4. GA books are particularly risky because the market for many books is so thin. How many More Fun, Adventure, Human Torch, Green Lantern, etc. collectors are there? I don't mean people who buy the occasional book because it has a cool cover or they got it dirt cheap, but people who are trying to collect all -- or, at least, long runs -- of these books. The big dealers would be in a better position to answer this question, but I'll speculate and say the answer may well be ZERO. That is, for at least some of these books, there may not be a single person who doesn't already own them who is actively trying to complete a collection of them.

 

5. Even with "core" books, I think people overestimate how many collectors there are. How many people are actively trying to assemble a complete run of Batman 1-50 or Superman 1-50 or the complete run of GA Caps? Probably not zero, but not a very large number either.

 

6. We are in a long bull market in comic book prices (some exceptions, of course, with Gaines file copies, high-grade Ducks, uber high-grade BA keys having already taken a tumble), so to this point optimistic forecasts of future prices have beat pessimistic forecasts. But will the run continue? Demographics seem to me to be against it. A lot of collections may well be coming on the market in the next 10-20 years as the baby boomers (or their heirs) liquidate their collections. I also think that once the current run of blockbuster super hero movies runs its course -- as it likely will in the next few years -- an important prop for the market will disappear.

 

My approach is to buy what I can afford and if the value of my collection were to collapse, I would regret it, but it would have no significant effect on my ability to fund my retirement or the needs of my family.

 

My (long-winded)

[jerome34]

There are more than a few collector's interested in long runs of GA titles. I

suspect there are about 5 collectors who are trying to complete the entire DC

collection. When you add in individuals interested in specific titles, I think it

would be reasonable to say that for each DC super hero title, there are at

least 25 collector's trying to complete the title and perhaps as many as 50

collector's for the more popular titles.

 

Considering the smaller size of the Timely line, my guess is that you could

easily double the count of collectors.

 

However, most of these collectors are on a limited budget and maybe get

only one or two issues a year per title. As a result, they slip off the radar.

 

Also, most of them realize that the possibility of completing the title is close

to zero due to the cost of the most expensive 1 - 20 issue. (think Sensation

through Detective).

 

Maybe Gator could comment on these numbers due to his customer

contacts base. Just ballpark figures for the field.

 

 

[HouseofComics.Com]

Good thoughts. If you're counting collectors who only average as little as two issues a year, I think it's way more than 50 collectors per major title.

[Sqeggs]

There are more than a few collector's interested in long runs of GA titles. I

suspect there are about 5 collectors who are trying to complete the entire DC

collection. When you add in individuals interested in specific titles, I think it

would be reasonable to say that for each DC super hero title, there are at

least 25 collector's trying to complete the title and perhaps as many as 50

collector's for the more popular titles.

 

Considering the smaller size of the Timely line, my guess is that you could

easily double the count of collectors.

 

However, most of these collectors are on a limited budget and maybe get

only one or two issues a year per title. As a result, they slip off the radar.

 

Also, most of them realize that the possibility of completing the title is close

to zero due to the cost of the most expensive 1 - 20 issue. (think Sensation

through Detective).

 

Maybe Gator could comment on these numbers due to his customer

contacts base. Just ballpark figures for the field.

 

 

You may be right but I would be amazed if there are 25 people trying to complete Adventure, Star Spangled, All American, All Flash, Green Lantern, World's Finest, etc.

[ciorac]

There are more than a few collector's interested in long runs of GA titles. I

suspect there are about 5 collectors who are trying to complete the entire DC

collection. When you add in individuals interested in specific titles, I think it

would be reasonable to say that for each DC super hero title, there are at

least 25 collector's trying to complete the title and perhaps as many as 50

collector's for the more popular titles.

 

Considering the smaller size of the Timely line, my guess is that you could

easily double the count of collectors.

 

However, most of these collectors are on a limited budget and maybe get

only one or two issues a year per title. As a result, they slip off the radar.

 

Also, most of them realize that the possibility of completing the title is close

to zero due to the cost of the most expensive 1 - 20 issue. (think Sensation

through Detective).

 

Maybe Gator could comment on these numbers due to his customer

contacts base. Just ballpark figures for the field.

 

 

You may be right but I would be amazed if there are 25 people trying to complete Adventure, Star Spangled, All American, All Flash, Green Lantern, World's Finest, etc.

 

I don't know about 25, but there are collectors right here on these boards that I know that are filling the runs you list above. And if we are just a fraction of the total collecting public, and we are, then your numbers are way low

[Sqeggs]

There are more than a few collector's interested in long runs of GA titles. I

suspect there are about 5 collectors who are trying to complete the entire DC

collection. When you add in individuals interested in specific titles, I think it

would be reasonable to say that for each DC super hero title, there are at

least 25 collector's trying to complete the title and perhaps as many as 50

collector's for the more popular titles.

 

Considering the smaller size of the Timely line, my guess is that you could

easily double the count of collectors.

 

However, most of these collectors are on a limited budget and maybe get

only one or two issues a year per title. As a result, they slip off the radar.

 

Also, most of them realize that the possibility of completing the title is close

to zero due to the cost of the most expensive 1 - 20 issue. (think Sensation

through Detective).

 

Maybe Gator could comment on these numbers due to his customer

contacts base. Just ballpark figures for the field.

 

 

You may be right but I would be amazed if there are 25 people trying to complete Adventure, Star Spangled, All American, All Flash, Green Lantern, World's Finest, etc.

 

I don't know about 25, but there are collectors right here on these boards that I know that are filling the runs you list above. And if we are just a fraction of the total collecting public, and we are, then your numbers are way low

 

Interesting. I wouldn't have thought it. Looks like I've been a nattering nabob of negativism!

[ciorac]

There are more than a few collector's interested in long runs of GA titles. I

suspect there are about 5 collectors who are trying to complete the entire DC

collection. When you add in individuals interested in specific titles, I think it

would be reasonable to say that for each DC super hero title, there are at

least 25 collector's trying to complete the title and perhaps as many as 50

collector's for the more popular titles.

 

Considering the smaller size of the Timely line, my guess is that you could

easily double the count of collectors.

 

However, most of these collectors are on a limited budget and maybe get

only one or two issues a year per title. As a result, they slip off the radar.

 

Also, most of them realize that the possibility of completing the title is close

to zero due to the cost of the most expensive 1 - 20 issue. (think Sensation

through Detective).

 

Maybe Gator could comment on these numbers due to his customer

contacts base. Just ballpark figures for the field.

 

 

You may be right but I would be amazed if there are 25 people trying to complete Adventure, Star Spangled, All American, All Flash, Green Lantern, World's Finest, etc.

 

I don't know about 25, but there are collectors right here on these boards that I know that are filling the runs you list above. And if we are just a fraction of the total collecting public, and we are, then your numbers are way low

 

Interesting. I wouldn't have thought it. Looks like I've been a nattering nabob of negativism!

 

nust a nittle nit