THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Math Teacher]

On 1/6/2022 at 11:41 PM, VintageComics said:

Haha! Sure! 

There are a couple of guys in the threads that are ALWAYS pumping these books overtime and I was speaking towards that.

Apparently every book is 'going to the moon' even when it's already been there and back already. It just gets tiring but i probably shouldn't have said anything.

I guess I haven't noticed the posts pumping up books. Is it safe to assume that these people have a large pile of these books that they are trying to move? As to this post, it certainly informed me of a trend that I hadn't noticed. I probably should have not been so snarky in my first reply.

 

[PKJ]

On 1/7/2022 at 12:41 AM, VintageComics said:

Haha! Sure! 

There are a couple of guys in the threads that are ALWAYS pumping these books overtime and I was speaking towards that.

Apparently every book is 'going to the moon' even when it's already been there and back already. It just gets tiring but i probably shouldn't have said anything. 

Amen. I turned my notifications off for this thread particularly due to every auction update. Final sales are one thing but board countdown clocks for each auction running?

 

Most of us see what you are saying, pump AF15,X1 and IH1 to death, then low and behold one becomes available for sale from said user.

[Pantodude]

On 1/7/2022 at 7:47 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Well you're absolutely right that it's too soon to tell -- we're talking about a very brief period and we'd need to let more time pass before a more sound analysis could be made.

Also, and I don't think I'm telling you something you don't already know, when you talk about the rate of change (ROI) you're talking about something totally different from what I said above.  Sure AF #15 has shown more growth in value than Cap #1 ... though I wouldn't get carried away with quadrupled, that's not even close to the real story in the mid grades.  My prediction is that despite its impressive rate of growth over the most recent year, it can never reach the valuation of certain scarcer books of the Golden Age.  It's certainly possible my prediction will be proven wrong, but I doubt it.

Hi.  Right, i was homing in on ROI b/c I sensed that's where @Subby1938 was logically headed or otherwise a decent point to make.  I only looked at one data point before (1.0) for Cap1 vs AF15, for my initial curiosity.  But the relative valuation could also be a lot closer than you think in higher grades.  In fact, surprisingly the opposite of what you said.  The sole recent high-grade sale of Cap1 was an 8.5 in Jan 2021 for $384K on Heritage, compared to the sole AF15 in 8.5 that sold in Sept 2021 for $707K (just based on GPA...don't know if another sold for more).  Yes, the AF15 sold a few months later, but that was almost double the Cap1 already!  With no buzz surrounding Cap (the super-hero) during the second half of 2021, how much more would the Cap1 in 8.5 have fetched in September (as opposed to January) of last year?   It could have remained relatively flat for all we know, but certainly doubling seems highly unlikely?   

Again, too few data points, but who expected AF15 to sell for double a Cap1 in any same grade last year?  I, like you, assumed Cap1 continued to be valued more in all grades, but apparently that has not been the case.  Even more surprising, this was not an isolated occurrence in 8.5!  The other year in which both books sold in 8.5 was in 2009, when Cap1 sold for $95.6K while AF15 sold for more again, $104.5K!   Why didn't we know this?  So AF15 has been worth more than Cap1 in this higher grade for over a decade, pulling away from Cap1 even more in 2021.  

So while AC1 and Tec27 could remain a different story, it looks like AF15 could have caught up to (indeed, surpassed) Cap1 in certain grades, with the reason for the huge discrepancy in relative valuation in the low and 8.5 grades a mystery to me (as noted earlier, a Cap1 in 1.0 sold for $70K in Sept, comparing favorably to the $29K for AF15 in 1.0 in December, so the opposite of what we saw in 8.5).  Still, likely too soon to tell, but those sales in 8.5 were very much in AF15's favor in 2021 (and more surprisingly, even way back in 2009). 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Pantodude

[october]

On 1/6/2022 at 6:59 PM, KCOComics said:

An "affordable" copy with no back cover was sold here on the boards a few years ago. 

It would have been the most I ever spent on a comic, so I hestitated, then decided to pull the trigger and sell books to pay for it.... But it was too late. 

And that was probably the only chance I will ever have to own a copy. 

So in Sweet Lou's scenerio where you could pick one book, it would probably be #3 on my list behind Tec27 and AC1. 

 

That one hurt...I saw it too late. It was SUPER underpriced, even for the time. 

I ended up buying that seller's Red Raven 1 and Daredevil Battles Hitler at decent prices, but was still despondent over the MM1. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by october

[KCOComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:04 AM, october said:

That one hurt...I saw it too late. It was SUPER underpriced, even for the time. 

I ended up buying that seller's Red Raven 1 and Daredevil Battles Hitler at decent prices, but was still desponded over the MM1. 

I actually remember you buying those books. 

That thread still haunts me lol. Huge SA keys and incredible GA books for well under Market Value.  

But that MM1 presented really well and I wish I just pulled the trigger and figured out the financials later. Sadly I have allot of "remember that time I almost bought....." Stories. 

[october]

On 1/7/2022 at 8:30 AM, KCOComics said:

Sadly I have allot of "remember that time I almost bought....." Stories. 

Yeah. Those tend to rack up quickly in this hobby.

I also have a lot of "remember that time I almost kept that book, but sold it...." stories. Those may suck worse. 

[VintageComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 2:48 AM, Batmanis#1 said:

AF15 making your sweat over there on the GA side you now have serious competition from the SA side.

I didn't realize there was a competition.

On 1/7/2022 at 2:51 AM, Batmanis#1 said:

Maybe just maybe you should have stocked up on more AF15's I mean all or most of veterans saw this coming a mile away.

I don't play the 'speculation game' as I think it's silly (always have) and being a full time dealer I don't need to. I always have inventory and something is always going up or down. I'm not going to waste my time worrying which books are going up and which are going down since it's all the same to me. 

But I did actually buy a few Hulk #1s and AF #15's back in 2014-2016 as I saw the trend coming and I told a few friends to stock up at the time. I've long sold them and turned that money over into other inventory. Sitting on books is not a viable business model.

 

[VintageComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 7:56 AM, Math Teacher said:

I guess I haven't noticed the posts pumping up books. Is it safe to assume that these people have a large pile of these books that they are trying to move? As to this post, it certainly informed me of a trend that I hadn't noticed. I probably should have not been so snarky in my first reply.

 

I probably shouldn't have been snarky either, so thanks for calling me on it. 

I kinda wish we had those banned threads in the WC still going as IIRC you've got a degree in epidemiology and I'd have loved to have picked your brain. 

On 1/7/2022 at 9:36 AM, october said:

Yeah. Those tend to rack up quickly in this hobby.

I also have a lot of "remember that time I almost kept that book, but sold it...." stories. Those may suck worse. 

One thing I NEVER do anymore is worry about what I missed out on. That's a recipe for nothing productive. 

Everyone has wins and losses. Most people never talk about their huge losses. I left $250K on the table in a deal once. It happens. The past is for lessons so I learned and moved on. 

Just enjoy what you have and not what you don't have. 

 

[VintageComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 8:30 AM, PKJ said:

Most of us see what you are saying, pump AF15,X1 and IH1 to death, then low and behold one becomes available for sale from said user.

I don't think any of the guys in this thread are pump and dump people, but the 'one way street' talk in politics, economics, comics, etc just gets tiring. 

Everyone's vectors only go in one direction these days.

Like, NOTHING can be going up forever. NOBODY can always be right. It's IMPOSSIBLE for only one side to always be right and one side always be wrong.

I guess it's just a call for a little more intellectual honesty, which I think has left planet earth recently. Not everything has to be a win every time. 

[october]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:06 AM, VintageComics said:

One thing I NEVER do anymore is worry about what I missed out on. That's a recipe for nothing productive. 

Everyone has wins and losses. Most people never talk about their huge losses. I left $250K on the table in a deal once. It happens. The past is for lessons so I learned and moved on. 

Just enjoy what you have and not what you don't have. 

 

If remembering my mistakes prevents me from making those again, it's productive. 

What I have and what I have done far outweigh any regrets. If they didn't I would have ditched comics long, long ago.

[VintageComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 10:09 AM, october said:

If remembering my mistakes prevents me from making those again, it's productive. 

What I have and what I have done far outweigh any regrets. If they didn't I would have ditched comics long, long ago.

I think a lot of people regret the money they left on the table but don't factor in what they did with that money.

Like, if you spent it on renovating your home, or a new car you enjoy or simply bought other comics, those are all investments that did something for you and brought value into your life.

So, if people actually thought through what they left on the table and then calculated where that money went and what it did, it'd be far more productive than just regretting what they did with the money.

For example, I sold a Hulk #1 9.0 for a record price in 2014 but I don't regret not keeping it. Keeping that book for 7 years would have actually cost me money, because I wouldn't have the cash to multiply it into where I am today, which is much further ahead than the profit I would have made if I'd just sat on it. 

Even though I'm a full time dealer now, I think most collectors are the same way. 

They may have sold a big key in 2010 or 2015 or even 2019 before the recent rise, but if you bought tons of other comics with that money then your ROI is probably pretty good no matter what you own since almost ALL comics have been rising steadily for 80 years and you're not as poorly off as you thought you were. 

And if you DIDN'T sell the big key and sat on it, would you be in a better or worse place financially today?

That's the proper way to look at it IMO. 

[october]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:22 AM, VintageComics said:

I think a lot of people regret the money they left on the table but don't factor in what they did with that money.

 

This is very true, but you are misinterpreting my regrets. A lot of those book I sold and wish I hadn't...I want them back because my tastes have changed. I sold so many beautiful high grade OO SA DC/Marvel collections because, at the time, I was only interested in Gold. Now that I have come back around to collecting Silver, I wish I had kept more. Sure, there is the odd issue that has skyrocketed in value that I wish I had kept just to sell now, but mostly I'm annoyed because I am currently collecting things I have owned multiple times already. 

[VintageComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 10:31 AM, october said:

This is very true, but you are misinterpreting my regrets. A lot of those book I sold and wish I hadn't...I want them back because my tastes have changed. I sold so many beautiful high grade OO SA DC/Marvel collections because, at the time, I was only interested in Gold. Now that I have come back around to collecting Silver, I wish I had kept more. Sure, there is the odd issue that has skyrocketed in value that I wish I had kept just to sell now, but mostly I'm annoyed because I am currently collecting things I have owned multiple times already. 

Ah, OK. In a thread where people talk a lot about value I misread your post.

[october]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:35 AM, VintageComics said:

Ah, OK. In a thread where people talk a lot about value I misread your post.

I try not to focus on the value stuff. It's not easy with daily/weekly eye-popping numbers. 

[Jaydogrules]

On 1/6/2022 at 6:52 PM, Pantodude said:

I'm not sure the fact that Cap1 continues to be worth more in all grades is the key takeaway here.  For financial types, isn't the main concern which book will have the more robust appreciation in the years ahead?  I think @Subby1938's point (and if I'm mistaken, then my point!) is that AF15 might now be appreciating faster than most GA heavyweights, including CAP1, due to Spidey's surging popularity.  And if not yet, AF15 could soon appreciate faster than all of them, bar none.  I dunno, but it might be fun to take a quick look using GPA just to get the blood warm!  And then I'm out of it! 

Take for example a Cap1 in 1.0, which sold for 36K in July 2017 and then most most recently 70K in Sept 2021, so almost doubled.  AF15 in 1.0  sold for $7200 in July 2017 and most recently sole for $29K in Dec 2021, so more than quadrupled.  That is just one low grade, but it feels like AF15 is just getting started.  

Now take the king of heavyweights, AC1.  A 3.0 sold for $300K in Nov 2014 and $1.64 million just last month, a 5.5x increase.  A 3.0 AF15 sold for $9200 in Dec 2014 and $43.2K just last month, a 4.7x increase.   

Too few data points, i know, but it looks like AF15, at least in lower grades like 1.0 and 3.0, is ALREADY appreciating much faster than a Cap1 over the recent years, and nearly appreciating like an AC1, despite census figures.     Surprising for a super-pricey SA book that has been expensive for so long already?  But then again, it's Spidey.  Too soon to tell, perhaps, but may be fun to track.    

 

I just said , f--- it and got both.  

-J.

[peewee22]

On 1/7/2022 at 10:21 AM, Jaydogrules said:

I just said , f--- it and got both.  

-J.

Very nice J. 

[KCOComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 11:21 AM, Jaydogrules said:

I just said , f--- it and got both.  

-J.

I mean it's incredible to see those guys, but why are they on a baking sheet???? 

This is going to lead to some very traumatic dreams! 

Edited January 7, 2022 by KCOComics

[peewee22]

On 1/7/2022 at 10:25 AM, KCOComics said:

I mean it's incredible to see those guys, but why are they on a baking sheet???? 

This is going to lead to some very traumatic dreams! 

"Bake at 350 for 5 years to remove the slab."

[Jaydogrules]

On 1/7/2022 at 8:25 AM, KCOComics said:

I mean it's incredible to see those guys, but why are they on a baking sheet???? 

This is going to lead to some very traumatic dreams! 

 That's the top of the plastic rolling cart that the bank gave me to place the items on.

-J.

[Pantodude]

Very nice, indeed!   Things like this make me wonder about refocusing my PC, which currently has a decidely SA bent.  Love Cap1.  BTW, since IH1 is related to AF15 in important respects for this discussion, an IH#1 in 8.5 sold last year for $275K on CL, so it too has been on a tear and perhaps a trajectory to overtake Cap1 in that grade relatively soon?  But back to AF15.  

Edited January 7, 2022 by Pantodude