Best high-value short-term flip potential?

[finecomics]

I think there is a big difference in what FD does and what the question stated. Buying quality books for set prices per book and doubling your money is great. But as a student of that philosophy its a little more complicated than that. Time Time Time. I've gotten lucky with collections (which I'm sure is common on this board). I've been the guy that sold out to bigger sharks and the guy whose bought out tables. And every scenerio ties into TIME. How much time you have directly relates to the amount of profit you can realize.

 

That being said I read the question at hand to state.... I'm looking to invest 2-5% of my total net worth in comics. I don't see anything risky about this at all. Worst case scenerio your 10k investment turns into 2-3k (and that is worst case given you did an hour or so research on what book(s) to buy).

 

But the whole thing is that the time factor in this situation is not a disadvantage. Since it is a small % of total portfolio there is a tremendous amount of ability to ride out the peaks and valleys.

 

That given I don't think you could go wrong if you were willing to hold (and I don't see why you wouldn't be) for at least 5-7 years. I think to be conservative I would not set a sales record for a CGC 9.6 or above. But a decent 8.5 - 9.2 key silver.

AF15, TOS 39, etc

 

If you want to take on more risk... Buy higher grade 9.6 or above, because as someone already stated your not going to get these for 9.2 OS price unless your lucky. And I agree with others that this is the area where money can be lost.

 

But one advantage to the idea is that the IRS isn't knocking on our doors saying that your CGC spidey 1 has increased by 5% this year. And I don't see a 1099-COMIC Form anytime in the near future.

 

Just my thoughts.

[Foolkiller]

Like most things in life, Information and Knowledge are power. I echo the sentiments above and would advise your friend to become as involved in the comic book back issue market as possible and try to learn before investing all of his money.

 

I think it is foolish, to be honest, to put $10k into comics unless it's completely disposable and you could lose it tomorrow. Or, if he's very young, and could afford a loss like this and recover.

 

If he enjoys comics, I'd encourage him to put some money into it, but only as a means to further enjoy something he really likes, not to simply put money into it as an investment. If he's like me, he'll make mistakes with the investments, especially up front. So -- and I think this where I'd object to going a comic investment route -- you'd be trying to cram in a number of years of experience in quickly while making very few mistakes with the books you'd be investing -- and you'd be lucky to make money on the venture.

 

To answer your direct question though, I think some of the harder to find Spideys are still good investments, as Spideys climb every year in the guide. Especially if you can them in true NM. I would also look for 50s DCs for a return. Maybe Brave and the Bold 28, which has the first JLA appearance, and is still probably undervalued for what it is in guide. I would also consider some of the Copper Age books like TMNT #1 -- which I still believe has some room to grow. And I'd get a list together of 9.8 80s books that have siginificance historically in the comic world and start rounding those up.

[COI]

I think it is foolish, to be honest, to put $10k into comics unless it's completely disposable and you could lose it tomorrow. Or, if he's very young, and could afford a loss like this and recover.

 

Ok, while I'm the last person who would go around telling people to "invest" in comics, I seriously doubt any collector spending a significant amount of money on comics does so with the attitude that they could afford a TOTAL loss. I seriously doubt that guys with million dollar collections "could lose it tomorrow". They may be wealthy, and I'm sure that they're not putting "all" their money into comics, but I don't think there would even be a high end market in the first place if everyone only bought with money that was "completely disposable".

 

I'm not counting on, or expecting to make any money from my collection, but I am expecting to get at least 60-75% of what I spent should I need/want to sell. And I for one don't think it's an unhealthy, or foolish expectation.

[WiseGuyX]

Look, why don't we just make the guy happy and start a CGC Comic Book Index Fund. He can buy $10,000 worth of shares in our comic book portfolio, we make the picks, buy the books, and turn them over at the right time. That way he doesn't even have to bother making an actual purchase or incurring the risk of actually "holding" the books.

 

I'm sure this has been thought of before, right?

 

The big problem is that prices are soooo manipulated in the comics world that the SEC would bury you under the jail. The comic maket is more corrupt than most 3rd world economies.

 

No Lie!!! Even if I don't know what SEC means

 

I firmly believe that some comic guide companies out there does this. It maybe because they over ordered a book them selves or they made a deal with a comic company to get a discount on volume buying. This all could me my imagination also

[Foolkiller]

No, I agree with you COI... but here's the way I'm looking at it: The guy has $10k right, but he knows nothing about comics, and he wants to put in $10k relatively quickly -- so unlike a situation with an experienced collector where getting 60-75% back on books is a likely scenario, bad investing could mean an even significantly lessor return. Plus, if he doesn't invest only in high end silver/bronze/gold (and he's looking for somewhat riskier quick flips), then my advice would be to basically only invest that if it were completely disposable.

 

Although I would never want my comics to become worthless over night, the money that is in them is completely disposable as well. It's as if I spent it on drinking or gambling to me.

[Aman619]

But as many Spideys from 101 - 200 in 9.6 as you can, paying as little as possible....

In a few years, they ought to go up 5-10% with or without movie hype. Theyre still pretty cheap and will b eth echeapest Spideys around so more collectors should start filling them in.....

 

 

or... spend $50K on som eREALLY nice books.

[DKB]

But as many Spideys from 101 - 200 in 9.6 as you can, paying as little as possible....

 

Ahem, these books are so horribly overpriced that I steer as clear of them as much as I possibly can!

 

In a few years, they ought to go up 5-10% with or without movie hype. Theyre still pretty cheap and will b eth echeapest Spideys around so more collectors should start filling them in.....

 

You are obviously on crack! These books will only go down! DOWN DOWN DOWN!

 

[Foolkiller]

And yet Spideys climb every year. Spideys have the biggest demand -- I'd be shocked to see anything below 157 go down in the guide, or in slabbed sales. I agree they are in relatively high supply, but they are also without question the fastest movers.

[Aman619]

But as many Spideys from 101 - 200 in 9.6 as you can, paying as little as possible....

 

Ahem, these books are so horribly overpriced that I steer as clear of them as much as I possibly can!

 

In a few years, they ought to go up 5-10% with or without movie hype. Theyre still pretty cheap and will b eth echeapest Spideys around so more collectors should start filling them in.....

 

You are obviously on crack! These books will only go down! DOWN DOWN DOWN!

 

 

I'm not buying them, cause Im old school, and I have my newstand copies for 35 cents each, and I agree with you. BUT - - there s still a good chance Ill be right given the time frame and the Spidey demand that will still be pretty strong by then.... And I cant think of a 10K key that has obvious upside potential, so these Spideys are as good a guess as any.

 

maybe an 8.0 or 8.5 B&B #28???

[DKB]

I was being facetious. The only slabs I own are ASM 9.6s between 100 and 200. =)

[Foolkiller]

when I reread your post, I thought you might have a hint of sarcasm there.

[namisgr]

I have a friend from outside comics who approached me and asked what one book, in the 10k range, would be the best 2-3 year flip candidate.

 

I have 5 words for you, son, just 5 words:

 

HOWARD THE DUCK #1

[FlyingDonut]

Another bit of advice to your friend.

 

8) DON'T BUY SLABBED BOOKS.

[Aman619]

Heres another idea: Give the 10k, (in cash preferably,) to a top dealer and let HIM just choose whatever he thinks are the right books for your friend..

 

just be sure to negotiate your 10% finders fee beforehand.

[eaglessbchamps-migration]

for 10K he can buy in a spot at the World Series of Poker Main Event

[Ze-man]

Look, why don't we just make the guy happy and start a CGC Comic Book Index Fund. He can buy $10,000 worth of shares in our comic book portfolio, we make the picks, buy the books, and turn them over at the right time.

 

 

 

I fear there would be rampant insider grading.

 

 

 

But now that I think about it, how fun would that be to spend other peoples money?

Sign me up..

 

Ze-

[Red Hook]

You're in. Just send me the $2,500 fee via paypal for your traders license.

[goldust40]

Another bit of advice to your friend.

 

8) DON'T BUY SLABBED BOOKS.

 

Good advice, but by extension he'd have to learn how to grade accurately and spot restoration. And that only comes with experience, and grading thousands of books.

[DoubleCovaBrotha]

I found the "Market Comparison by Metropolis Collectibles" article. In the 34th edition (the most current one) it is on page 103.

 

The 30 comics include:

 

Action Comics #1

All-American Comics #16

All Star Comics #3

Amazing Fantasy #15

Amazing Spider-Man #1

Batman #1

Brave and the Bold #28

Captain America Comics #1

Detective Comics #1

Detective Comics #27

Fantastic Four #1

Flash #1

Giant-Size X-Men #1

Incredible Hulk #1

Incredible Hulk #181

Journey into Mystery #83

Mad #1

Marvel Comics #1

More Fun Comics #52

New Fun Comics #1

Pep #22

Sensation Comics #1

Showcase #4

Showcase #22

Superman #1

Vault of Horror #12

Walt Disney Comics & Stories #1

Whiz Comics #2 (1)

Wonder Woman #1

X-Men #1

 

The time period is between 1994 and 2004. Interesting information, as the best performing book happens to be the Sensation Comics #1 at 20.9% and the worst performing book is Whiz Comics #2 (1) at 7.2%. Overall, the DJIA had a annual growth rate of 13.07% while the "Metropolis Index" returned 13%.

 

Overall, I found this short article interesting, but would like to see a portfolio analysis of different time periods.

[jbud73]

I found the "Market Comparison by Metropolis Collectibles" article. In the 34th edition (the most current one) it is on page 103.

 

The 30 comics include:

 

Action Comics #1

All-American Comics #16

All Star Comics #3

Amazing Fantasy #15

Amazing Spider-Man #1

Batman #1

Brave and the Bold #28

Captain America Comics #1

Detective Comics #1

Detective Comics #27

Fantastic Four #1

Flash #1

Giant-Size X-Men #1

Incredible Hulk #1

Incredible Hulk #181

Journey into Mystery #83

Mad #1

Marvel Comics #1

More Fun Comics #52

New Fun Comics #1

Pep #22

Sensation Comics #1

Showcase #4

Showcase #22

Superman #1

Vault of Horror #12

Walt Disney Comics & Stories #1

Whiz Comics #2 (1)

Wonder Woman #1

X-Men #1

 

The time period is between 1994 and 2004. Interesting information, as the best performing book happens to be the Sensation Comics #1 at 20.9% and the worst performing book is Whiz Comics #2 (1) at 7.2%. Overall, the DJIA had a annual growth rate of 13.07% while the "Metropolis Index" returned 13%.

 

Overall, I found this short article interesting, but would like to see a portfolio analysis of different time periods.

 

 

I did not read the article because I bought the BIG BIG guide and they cut the guts out of it this year so I have a question.

 

Did they base their findings on appreciation between guide values in NM for 1994 and 2004, because if they did then all those numbers are suspect. Why? Well because I can't remember a time when any of those books sold in NM for guide. IE you'd have a tough time buying them at that, so what you would actually be able to buy and sell them for would likely have greater fluctuation than the steady return quoted in that article. I mean maybe those books return the % quoted and maybe they don't, the key is to understand that just because its shown in black and white in OS doesn't necessarily make it so.