Black Cat Mystery Comics #50 CGC 9.4

[shrunkenhead]

We've gently butted heads on this issue before, and once again I have to respectfully disagree with Sfilosa. Though GA cannot ever catch on with the same amount of zeal and fervor as SA (I don't see a Black Terror or Dr. Occult movie in the works!), to say that "hot" money will never be there again is likely a misnomer. I've said this before, but it will probably take a number of years for the comic hobby to "mature" in terms of collecting tastes. I see people with big dollars eventually getting burned out on the abundant supply of SA and BA and turning towards more sophisticated and eclectic collecting patterns.

 

People are fascinated with GA. They just aren't exposed to it as often. If you don't believe me, take a small stack of GA books in F+ or better to your LCS and ask them to make an offer. You don't have to be serious about selling them, just do it as an experiment. Just watch the guy at the counter's eyeballs pop out of his head. Watch the owner come out from the backroom and eye you somewhat suspiciously and curiously. And while you're at it, check out the small crowd of kids that's gathering behind you at the countertop, looking over your shoulder to take a peek and see what the fuss is all about. This from KIDS who have NEVER SEEN an authentic comic from the 1950s or earlier, and genuinely want to have a look-see.

 

Out of sight out of mind, yes, but I don't believe that scarcity equates to an automatic decline in liquidity. Not in this hobby, anyway. Collectors love owning something that no one else has, some unusual, esoteric treasure or trinket. That's why highgrade GA fits the bill for so many with the bucks to spend on them. You don't need a movie based on Blue Bolt, because that's not where the appeal lies. It's a forgotten relic from a bygone age, like those Indian nickels or whatever it is that the coinees go crazy about.

 

The market is cyclical. Highgrade GA WILL come back. Classic covers are key. Condition across the board is key. Now's the time to buy. 'Nuff said.

[*paull*]

Good post, Shrunk. I agree that the demand for Gold will remain. It's a natural progression to want to buy rarer and older material. I went from moderns (in the late 80s) to Silver Age (in the early 90s) to Golden Age slowly over the past few years. Now I don't foresee myself collecting platinum material, but you never know!

 

I agree that it's a good time to buy Gold. Classic covers will always be sought after. There's no doubt that the cream of the crop GA material (Timelys, classic L.B. Cole, Lou Fine, Mac Raboy and Schomburg covers, first appearances, lurid pre-code horror covers, etc.) will continue to go up in value.

[batman_fan]

I have to admit, I book marked that issue as well. It is a classic cover and I can't see that ever changing. Hard to say how many high grade copies are out there, but I would guess not a lot more (I know I could be wrong on this, but just a guess on my part). For myself, If I could have flipped a few books, then I would have grabbed it.

[sfilosa]

The market is cyclical. Highgrade GA WILL come back. Classic covers are key. Condition across the board is key. Now's the time to buy. 'Nuff said.

 

I agree that CLASSIC COVERS AND CONDITION are the key.

 

So where does that leave the other 99% of GA books?

 

Plus, go to any decent size convention and you will see an abundance of GA material in the lesser grades. It's not as rare as you think, but the difference is that even in VG, a lot of these books guide for over $100.00. That price is going put off anyone who wants to "dabble". Yet, collectors can "dabble" in SA and BA books in the mid-grades for less than $10 books.

 

I'm not saying GA is dead. What I'm saying is that because of the Gerber Guides and now the Internet, the KEY BOOKS are relatively known, and will command a premium. The rest will languish, with little to no movement in price, and therefore, "HOT MONEY" will NEVER go there.

[shrunkenhead]

I think that leaves 99 percent of the GA market in the same place it leaves about 70 percent of the SA and BA market. Bargain bins.

 

Sfilosa, you're suggesting that the problem is that hot money isn't going to be there for midgrade books. Well, truly HOT money will never go to midgrade books in any genre. Are you suggesting that big dollars are going into F- copies of the Incredible Hulk? No way, that's not happening, and is never going to happen. And what hot money is there going to be in "dabbling" in 10 dollar SA books? Lower and MIdgrade books from any age usually have to be discounted heavily. They don't sell at guide in the SA or BA, so I don't think it's fair to take GA to task for the same thing.

 

But when I see slabbed GA VF/NM books that barely crack guide on ebay, that to me suggests that it's the time to buy. At those prices, a person with hefty finances (not me) could really get a nice horde of GA going, and then when the market swings the other way, that seller's got the pick of the litter at his disposal. Why get caught up in the SA spiral only to face the inevitable tumble, or at least the inevitable gradual decline? I'd rather buy when prices are down.

 

This strategy has certainly worked for Metropolis. I think it's also going to work for Mark Wilson, eventually (PGC Mint has largely priced itself out of the market, but that may not be the case forever). These guys know when to buy books that are selling for soft money, and they're totally comfortable with sitting on quality material until the market shifts.

 

When I buy GA these days, it's almost always in VF or better, unless it's a book that I could never afford in a million years in that grade. For one thing, it's a challenge to collect books in that grade, and that's fun. But I also think that it will pay nice dividends if I have the patience to sit on the books long enough. Underexposure is largely the key. You can't relist books that don't sell week after week on ebay and expect people to give a damn. You have to give them a brief window, and if it doesn't sell, don't relist. Not for a long, long time anyhow.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that GA might take a little more strategy on the collector's part that some of the other periods. But that's not to say that hot money will never float that way again. That's just not true.

[shrunkenhead]

Oh, and HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!

 

Anybody got any cool pre-code panels of a guy being carved up like a turkey or anything?

[sfilosa]

But when I see slabbed GA VF/NM books that barely crack guide on ebay, that to me suggests that it's the time to buy.

 

 

Your implying that there will be a increase in demand for this book. I just don't know why.

 

Of course the key issues or classic covers will always have demand. But for almost ANY GA book in VF/NM you are already talking about a $100-200 book for a non-key, run of the mill book, that most collectors don't even know exist.

 

Plus, as I have said before, WHERE does GUIDE get there MARKET VALUES FROM? Maybe the book really only sells for 50% of guide. Now assume you pay 50% of guide, and OVERSTREET starts LOWERING the price of the book. How is that going to CREATE ARTIFICIAL DEMAND for a book.

 

Demand happens because:

1) People want the book or

2) People expect the book to increase in value

 

That's it.

[shrunkenhead]

Well, I think we're going to have to just amicably agree to disagree on this one...you say you can't see why golden age books (keys and non-keys) in VF/NM will increase in demand, and I can't see why you can't see it. I think I've made my armchair philosophy somewhat plain already, and I'm not sure how to spin this out any further. Although you're suggesting that one of the pitfalls of GA is that it doesn' t trade all that much, I would counter that by suggesting that many of the major GA buys are done under the public radar. We don't hear about those sales because the network of buyers and sellers is already established, insular, and often quite confidential. These guys don't give a darn whether or not their buybooks get a mention on GPA.

 

One final thought, though. You mention that I should check out more cons, and then I'd realize that golden age is not really that scarce. I can't argue with the first half of your argument, as I'm a South Floridian like yourself, and you know as well as I do that the cons around here bite. However, well...let's take Metro, for example, who I think we can agree is a premier dealer of Golden Age, if not numero uno. Few dealers at any con will have an inventory of golden age comics in highgrade that can come close to matching their stock. These guys trade in huge numbers, yet what percentage of their online inventory consists of Golden Age books in VF/NM or better? A very small percentage indeed. Is that because these books don't sell so Metro isn't interested in buying them? I hardly think so.

 

You don't need a thousand people on ebay clamoring for highgrade LB cole covers, or bondage covers, or Nazi-themed books, or anti-communist comics, or electrocution covers, or whatever the heck else. You just need seven or eight dozen collectors around the world whose passion is sincere and bank accounts are ample. Even in that very small club of collectors, there still won't be enough product to go around.

 

But hey, I'm gonna conclude by suggesting that you might be right. OS will probably continually lower their GA values. Highgrade gold is going to drop like a rock. Don't put any of your dough into it. Stay far, far, away. In other words, don't give me any competition!

 

Hope you all are stuffed to the gills with thanksgiving turkey!

[*paull*]

I know of a guy who attends a local Philadelphia show every month and is a voracious GA collector. Yet, I believe he's only about 22 years old. He went through a SA phase and quickly got into buying high-grade GA material, including keys and pedigrees. It seems like his typical purchase is in the $1000 range, but he spends _all_ of his disposable income (and probably more) on buying GA books.

 

I mention this as an example of how new GA fans can be created. It's not just older collectors who will be liquidating collections.

[shrunkenhead]

Have to echo that sentiment, Paull! Hey, I'm 28, so even most of the later bronze was published when I was a wee tot, let alone gold! GA collectors can be created...I think a lot of us make the shift after suffering from SA burnout. We still love comics, but we got frustrated about the abundant supply and high prices of highgrade silver. I gave up buying silver about 5 years ago, and have never looked back!

 

Sounds like this 22 yr old fellow is getting himself quite a collection....maybe we should sick Sfilosa on him and then buy up his books! j/k

[Timely]

As I have stated in the past, I started collecting GA at the age of 15. I do not think there is a stereotypical age range for someone to start collecting GA books.

 

West

[ghoulaid]

I agree West ... I was 16 when I bought my first GA books. I would guess most NEW GA collectors would start in their late teens to early/mid 20's.

[batman_fan]

I agree,

 

I bought my first golden-age book at 21. Anyone remember Samuel Frazer? It was Batman 31. I couldn't put together the $75 for the Detective 49, but th $30 for the Batman was doable. I actually still have Robert Bell Catalogs from the 1970s. I am now 40 and mainly focus on Golden age with a sprinkling of silver and bronze. Never got the Platnium bug.

[precodekeith]

Yup. I agree here. I started collecting pre-code horror in 1993 when I was "just" 22 years old. All you gotta be is a comic collector to "get into" any age. Which does pose the question...

 

Are there enough younger people reading comics today to continue on with ever-increasing prices on back issues in say, 25 years from now?

 

My guess: NO!

 

Sure, HG keys are going to be solid simply as historic oddities, and will probably attract BIG MONEY purchasers of Americana. I'm talking like highest graded Action # 1's and such....

 

However, my gut feeling is that when "older" long time collectors/hoarders start passing away or selling off their collections for whatever reason, the supply will eventually outweigh the demand. (some of you might say this has already begun in mid- low GA )

 

Bottom line of my theory: is that kids are into video games, etc. much more than comics, and I'm guessing 25 years from now the "market" for your run of the mill condition GA, SA, etc. book is going to be way more limited than today, and prices are going to level off, or more likely drop...

 

I'd like to hear what you guys think.....

[sfilosa]

You don't need a thousand people on ebay clamoring for highgrade LB cole covers, or bondage covers, or Nazi-themed books, or anti-communist comics, or electrocution covers, or whatever the heck else. You just need seven or eight dozen collectors around the world whose passion is sincere and bank accounts are ample. Even in that very small club of collectors, there still won't be enough product to go around.

 

Here is where we agree.

 

But I said pretty much most of the other collectors are buying the same type of stuff. DC, Timely, Classic Covers, etc.

 

But what about all the other books, regardless of grade? Will demand really pick-up for all the offbeat publishers? I don't think so.

 

So there will be a small percentage of books that are in high-demand, and the rest will probably languish.

[*paull*]

Regarding the 22 year old guy I mentioned, I don't know what's in his collection now, but I've seen him carrying around a few books that he wished to trade and they were pretty nice, high-grade (8.0 and up) early DC and Timely GA superhero books. Give him ten years, and he'll probably have some very valuable stuff. He's absolutely obsessed with collecting GA books. He showed me his want list and it was quite substantial. He spends every spare dime he has on books.

 

I'm 33 years old and started with SA Marvels back when I was about 17, which I think was pretty early for that kind of thing, considering it was about 1989 at the time. Being so young at the time, I could never afford an FF #1 or Avengers #4 at the time, but I did buy a lot of secondary Marvel keys (which I still have), but I got a bit tired of buying SA books, one of the reasons being that I had little in the way of disposable income. I did continue amassing material by Jim Steranko though (paperback covers, non-comics illustration work, etc.), and I still have that huge collection.

 

Pre-code horror books are a very recent thing for me. I bought the Mask Comics #1 that I have in the pre-code horror thread about six or seven years ago, and a Young Men #24 that I bought near the same time. I do love GA hero books, but I think my taste is just too expensive. If I went the hero route, it would have been Timelys for the most part, and I just can't afford to buy many books in VG, particularly desirable books with Schomburg covers.

 

So I decided to pursue more L.B. Cole books and in looking for those, I came across some really nice Farrell horror books that hooked me in. Then I started collecting other pre-code classic covers as a result. I see myself continuing with horror material but I doubt that I'll get too much into the hero material (except for an occasional book like the Master Comics #27 I bought).

[Timely]

Regarding the 22 year old guy I mentioned, I don't know what's in his collection now, but I've seen him carrying around a few books that he wished to trade and they were pretty nice, high-grade (8.0 and up) early DC and Timely GA superhero books. Give him ten years, and he'll probably have some very valuable stuff. He's absolutely obsessed with collecting GA books. He showed me his want list and it was quite substantial. He spends every spare dime he has on books.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The next time you see him at a show you should tell him about the boards! I'm sure he'd enjoy talking with and meeting the other GA collectors on here.

 

West

[shrunkenhead]

Well, I think being that we're on these forums, we all have pretty respectable collections, we regularly check ebay, attend cons, etc...I think we're all a bit spoiled and overly finicky in terms of what we deem "hot" and "saleable", etc.

 

Case in point. Last week I went to my LCS with several dozen bronze books, in high grade, but not uber-high. Most would have likely CGC'd in the 8.5 to 9.2 zone. Very sharp but not pristine. No keys, no first issues, no classics---a few quirky covers, but that's all... mostly Marvels and DCs, and some scattered Charltons. Well, the guys in the store went wild for 'em, they couldn't believe I'd offerred up such "fantastic books." They told me that it's been ages since anyone waltzed in the door with anything better than a VG+ that was older than 1980.

 

I was really shocked at their reaction, as to me they were fairly bottom-of-the barrel books. Nice stuff, but certainly nothing to go ga-ga over. Nothing to cry about parting with, that's for sure. I tried to play it cool and act as if I shared their enthusiasm. I walked out of there with a very healthy percentage of guide, about 70%, far better than I would have done selling these books in lots on ebay. I did no bargaining. I could've probably got them up to even higher $$, but I didn't want to jinx things. I just took the money and ran. And I got an invitation to come back anytime, which I'm sure I'll take them up on at some point.

 

So it's easy for us to turn up our noses at high-grade gold simply because it's "not key", but I think that's because our deep involvement in the hobby has seriously clouded our perspective (I'm counting myself among the ranks here). But if this is the reaction that I got from nice bronze, what would have happened if I'd walk through the front door with gold?

 

And no, I'm NOT telling any of you the name of the store!

[*paull*]

I will definitely be mentioning the Boards in the future when I see that guy again. When I was at the NYC show, I forgot to mention the Boards to a nice guy I met who was buying a GA book at the same time I was. I had such a headache at the time (almost zero sleep combined with extreme heat) that I could barely think at the time.

 

Nice work, Shrunk... those guys were probably thrilled to get the books, and now you have a little more cash to buy some GA books It's true, we get pretty spoiled by the stuff that we have access to. If they saw a Fine condition Golden Age horror book, they wouldn't believe it.

[precodekeith]

Cool posts, but doesn't look like anyone has directly answered the question I posed earlier?.....