Modern Growth

[dupont2005]

It's not about lasting forever though, because the IP doesn't belong to Image and Image's livelihood isn't based on protecting the small pool of characters the company has owned since the 1940's. They just need the top talent in the industry to want to work for them. Ten issues, a hundred and fifty issues, as long as it's critically acclaimed and behind a publisher with the right level of pull in the industry, they will most likely slowly grow. Remember, even if creator owned stuff could last forever, there's no guarantee it would be at Image forever.

 

TMNT was at Image for a short while, wasn't it? Groo, Usagi Yojimbo. There's been a handful to come and go. And for Image that's fine. As long as it sells while it's there. Twenty years from now they likely won't have Walking Dead and Revival. They will hopefully have great titles to replace those with though.

 

But even though I much prefer Image and Dark Horse to Marvel and DC, I don't think it does the industry or the consumers a service for any publisher to control the horses share of the market.

[Pete Marino]

I don't think modern superhero comics are catering to the reader all that well. Look at the sales. The superhero comic reading community is smaller than ever. Half the comments on any given story or event are complaints, and there isn't a single thread regarding a single Marvel or DC ongoing where someone doesn't call it a perfect jumping off point.

 

Imagine what sales would be like if they relied on selling a good story, like the 1980's and before, instead of selling chase variants and deaths and crossovers. You could probably safely say sales would drop by about 20%. And imagine if there were no constant reboots and renumberings. The annual revenue (reboots and renumberings seem to be just about an annual tradition at this point) would drop significantly.

 

You're right, the intellectual property is more popular than ever in history. Why doesn't that relate to comic sales though?

 

They're putting out what they put out because it sells. When they try something different (Dial H) it is ignored and dies.

 

Dial H was Awesome!!! I hated that it got canceled. Such a great story.

[SquareChaos]

I'm not talking about it lasting forever with the publisher in question, I'm talking about the lifespan, typically, being as long as the creators want to do it. Most creators will not stick with something through poor numbers, they'll move on and create some other title that is hot for a few months - if they're lucky - before they start to lose numbers again.

 

I think that is a huge problem with the industry - too many number #1 issues from all publishers. Not enough three digits. I'm not saying they have to consecutively count up, just making the point that most of these comics don't stick around. I don't read Batman, but I know he'll be there in 10 years. I can't say the same, even considering one year, for a lot of the titles I love today, and that makes me sad.

[dupont2005]

Yeah, the current rate of hit first issues at Image isn't going to last, and you're going to see a lot of series die off within ten issues. They're milking it right now. Eventually the speculators will realize money doesn't grow on trees and they aren't genius investors and we'll be back to the healthy rate of moderately successful series at Image. A series naturally only lasting four to ten issues is fine though. The creator isn't quitting comics, and will likely have a new series. Intellectual property isn't important, and the reliance on intellectual property does not benefit readers. I believe it does the opposite in fact. When Stray Bullets is done, someone will have something else, something new. That's what is going to draw in new readers. Stories that end. Just like in movies and books. A story that moves forward in a linear direction toward an ultimate climax. And then instead of rehashing everything over again for seventy years, a new story. Completely new. Not the continuing adventures of, a new adventure, with new people. This is what is going to gain marketshare and break through into mainstream readership. It may not be good for people who want to collect keys, knowing Saga won't be around in five years and isn't the next Spiderman, but it's what is going to get new people to read comics, along with new methods of distribution that do not rely solely on the LCS, and new formats that are not becoming more and more prohibitively expensive for less and less page count.

[SquareChaos]

I don't disagree. Most stories should end, and because the status quo is almost always maintained in the Big Two's IPs, I rarely ever read them for more than a few arcs. Basically, nothing ever really happens, so what is the point?

 

 

Right now, for the most part, almost all indie stories end really quickly. Intellectual property is not bad for the industry by definition, it is simply bad for the industry as run by Marvel & DC.

 

A few instances of it being attempted, and being worthwhile... Glory and Prophet. Two of the worst 90s Image books taken and completely re-imagined. Same IPs... completely different products... and products that I think are pretty amazing, especially Prophet. I'd like to see more of that, but I don't want to see it done exactly as it was done with those two. I don't want to see a relatively terrible IP be raised from the dead randomly many years after we all assumed it was gone.

 

I'm not sure what the right answer is, but I think there is a better middle ground than we currently have. I guess that is probably the best I can state it. I think we agree more than we disagree, so there is that!

 

 

 

 

[dupont2005]

Since they are such a major departure from their source, was it really necessary for the final product to use those licenses? Wouldn't they be just as good if they were new original characters? If they are used perpetually, there will be some good and there will be some bad. The owners of intellectual property count on it, and hope it's popularity allows the bad to remain successful between the chunks of good. "So glad so-and-so left my favorite comic, he was destroying it!" Then why did you continue reading? Because it's your favorite comic, even if you didn't actually like it. You liked it once, it's ongoing, and it's your favorite character. You'll buy it regardless, hoping you eventually like it again. That's the kind of intellectual property that holds value. Also, by working on someone else's property, the creators who have turned the unreadable drek into something decent aren't getting paid like they would if they were owners of the property they worked on. The millionaire who copyrighted the characters in the early 1990's is.

[Underground44]

Just wanted to toss something out there to spark conversation. Will modern comics ever reach the same level as the gold and silver era of comics. I mean this from the standpoint of value and being highly sought after collectables. My next question is do you think creator own companies such as Image as an example can or will put out a book that spans generations/era like Marvel and DC? In 30 or 40 years will there be a market for Walking Dead 1 or Saga RRP?

 

No. I see today as the 1990's. There are winners, but many will be below cover. In the 1960s, the comics were never an investment and I remember buying the X-men at a high 50 cent an issue. Other I bought at covers and they appreciated 100-500x. Supply was limited and It paid dividends 30-40 years later.

 

There might 0.1% of the comics that can appreciate 100x now.

 

Today is NOTHING like the 90's. Way smaller print runs, a lot less hype and there was no digital readers in the 90's. The art is better now and the writing isn't as generic. I agree that the majority of moderns won't rise in value or be relevant in 40 years but explain to me why it's like the 90's now?

[SquareChaos]

Since they are such a major departure from their source, was it really necessary for the final product to use those licenses? Wouldn't they be just as good if they were new original characters? If they are used perpetually, there will be some good and there will be some bad. The owners of intellectual property count on it, and hope it's popularity allows the bad to remain successful between the chunks of good. "So glad so-and-so left my favorite comic, he was destroying it!" Then why did you continue reading? Because it's your favorite comic, even if you didn't actually like it. You liked it once, it's ongoing, and it's your favorite character. You'll buy it regardless, hoping you eventually like it again. That's the kind of intellectual property that holds value. Also, by working on someone else's property, the creators who have turned the unreadable drek into something decent aren't getting paid like they would if they were owners of the property they worked on. The millionaire who copyrighted the characters in the early 1990's is.

 

Yes, yes, this is all a given. The point isn't that it is great for the creators - just like it isn't necessarily great for creators to write Green Arrow or Hawkeye... but it does get them exposure, and for writers and artists, that can be better than cash. And I still think having persistent characters and settings throughout the years is a solid, good for the hobby. If all of the persistent stories went away, it would be much, much harder for the hobby to pick up new readers since non-participants would have no idea about anything before delving in - no characters or ideas would exist in popular culture, it would be a total niche hobby. Something it is already dangerously close to being.

[dupont2005]

Except when you look at graphic novel sales in bookstores, they're looking for exactly that. Self contained stories, most likely something renown and awarded like MAUS or something they saw on a bestseller list in the newspaper. Not something with their favorite character from when they were ten. There is growth in the industry. Revenues are increasing. The biggest growth I think is online though, among comics that look like this

 

You may say that graphic novel sales in bookstores is a tiny share of the market, and you'd be right. But twenty years ago there were three times as many comic shops and no graphic novel section in any bookstore. There was the humor section, with Garfield collections. That's it. The growth has been outside the direct market through online retailers like DCBS, through bookstore distribution, and through webcomics and digital distribution like Comixology. We're going to see things change big time. Nobody is going to buy multiple copies of a digital comic. Nobody is paying extra for a blank cover on a digital comic. Those sales methods aren't going to last another decade.

[rjrjr]

Except when you look at graphic novel sales in bookstores, they're looking for exactly that. Self contained stories, most likely something renown and awarded like MAUS or something they saw on a bestseller list in the newspaper. Not something with their favorite character from when they were ten. There is growth in the industry. Revenues are increasing. The biggest growth I think is online though, among comics that look like this

 

You may say that graphic novel sales in bookstores is a tiny share of the market, and you'd be right. But twenty years ago there were three times as many comic shops and no graphic novel section in any bookstore. There was the humor section, with Garfield collections. That's it. The growth has been outside the direct market through online retailers like DCBS, through bookstore distribution, and through webcomics and digital distribution like Comixology. We're going to see things change big time. Nobody is going to buy multiple copies of a digital comic. Nobody is paying extra for a blank cover on a digital comic. Those sales methods aren't going to last another decade.

 

While I want to agree with what you are writing, I don't think your conclusions are correct. Comic collectors/speculators like spending big money on the hot comic and I thought at one time that would die out, but now I'm not so sure. I honestly believe the market has lost all rational thought in recent years.

 

Collectors/speculators are:

 

- Spending hundreds (and is some cases thousands) of dollars for books that are just printed. (I've seen several listing for brand new comics on DCBS for $1000 from Dynamite Entertainment in the past year.)

 

- Buying comics based on unsubstantiated TV or movie rumors. (Pick any Image title or Marvel or DC superhero.)

 

- Driving up comic prices on characters based on flimsy pretences. (Sorry, but can someone please, please explain why Livewire is a hot character? I have asked and haven't really received an answer. This almost feels like a board prank that was played and everyone bought into it.)

 

I'm pretty sure the publishers know this is where there bread and butter is and they are more than happy to keep pumping out variants, first issues, revive/kill/change characters, and pump out event after event knowing it drives fanboys nuts. Not just the big two either, but Valiant, IDW, Boom, Dynamite Entertainment, Dark Horse, Image, etc. are all participating in this. Marvel and DC both have stated that this is what the comic buying public wants and are more than happy to keep cranking it out. When you look at the history of comics from the very beginning, publishers are basically doing what they have always done, latching onto the latest fad/trend, and pumping away until the next fad/trend.

 

Finally, digital sales growth have slowed considerably. It is unlikely that digital sales are going to overtake print sales (if you had asked me a few years ago, I would have thought so, but not any more) and looks to be settling in around 15-20% of print. Publishers are now looking at digital sales like TPB sales, as an additional revenue source for their publishing, not as an eventual publishing paradigm.

 

So, collectors/speculators, publishers, and the economics of digital all lead me to believe we won't be seeing any wholesale change in the comic market in the next decade.

[Vikingreed]

Except when you look at graphic novel sales in bookstores, they're looking for exactly that. Self contained stories, most likely something renown and awarded like MAUS or something they saw on a bestseller list in the newspaper. Not something with their favorite character from when they were ten. There is growth in the industry. Revenues are increasing. The biggest growth I think is online though, among comics that look like this

 

You may say that graphic novel sales in bookstores is a tiny share of the market, and you'd be right. But twenty years ago there were three times as many comic shops and no graphic novel section in any bookstore. There was the humor section, with Garfield collections. That's it. The growth has been outside the direct market through online retailers like DCBS, through bookstore distribution, and through webcomics and digital distribution like Comixology. We're going to see things change big time. Nobody is going to buy multiple copies of a digital comic. Nobody is paying extra for a blank cover on a digital comic. Those sales methods aren't going to last another decade.

 

While I want to agree with what you are writing, I don't think your conclusions are correct. Comic collectors/speculators like spending big money on the hot comic and I thought at one time that would die out, but now I'm not so sure. I honestly believe the market has lost all rational thought in recent years.

 

Collectors/speculators are:

 

- Spending hundreds (and is some cases thousands) of dollars for books that are just printed. (I've seen several listing for brand new comics on DCBS for $1000 from Dynamite Entertainment in the past year.)

 

- Buying comics based on unsubstantiated TV or movie rumors. (Pick any Image title or Marvel or DC superhero.)

 

- Driving up comic prices on characters based on flimsy pretences. (Sorry, but can someone please, please explain why Livewire is a hot character? I have asked and haven't really received an answer. This almost feels like a board prank that was played and everyone bought into it.)

 

I'm pretty sure the publishers know this is where there bread and butter is and they are more than happy to keep pumping out variants, first issues, revive/kill/change characters, and pump out event after event knowing it drives fanboys nuts. Not just the big two either, but Valiant, IDW, Boom, Dynamite Entertainment, Dark Horse, Image, etc. are all participating in this. Marvel and DC both have stated that this is what the comic buying public wants and are more than happy to keep cranking it out. When you look at the history of comics from the very beginning, publishers are basically doing what they have always done, latching onto the latest fad/trend, and pumping away until the next fad/trend.

 

Finally, digital sales growth have slowed considerably. It is unlikely that digital sales are going to overtake print sales (if you had asked me a few years ago, I would have thought so, but not any more) and looks to be settling in around 15-20% of print. Publishers are now looking at digital sales like TPB sales, as an additional revenue source for their publishing, not as an eventual publishing paradigm.

 

So, collectors/speculators, publishers, and the economics of digital all lead me to believe we won't be seeing any wholesale change in the comic market in the next decade.

 

Very good post.

Thanks.

[Aweandlorder]

Albeit all the marketing ploys used by publishers, the goal will always be to license a book for TV/movies. That's the status quo nowadays. Speculation immediately follows as an instinct. If a comic book was printed and sold over 80 thousand copies a little over a month ago and was IMMEDIATELY being optioned for a TV show, and is written by a superstar writer, guess what? it will fetch about 3-4 times cover price on average and is set off for a very promising start. I can think of a thousand ways how this whole industry could collapse based on the same process done with tens of titles in the next 10-20 years, but that shouldnt deter me from investing and making money now.

I could see 4-5 years ago how google or apple will not be such a hot stock in 10-20 years either but guess what? I bought many many shares and did very well.

 

[rjrjr]

Albeit all the marketing ploys used by publishers, the goal will always be to license a book for TV/movies. That's the status quo nowadays. Speculation immediately follows as an instinct. If a comic book was printed and sold over 80 thousand copies a little over a month ago and was IMMEDIATELY being optioned for a TV show, and is written by a superstar writer, guess what? it will fetch about 3-4 times cover price on average and is set off for a very promising start. I can think of a thousand ways how this whole industry could collapse based on the same process done with tens of titles in the next 10-20 years, but that shouldnt deter me from investing and making money now.

I could see 4-5 years ago how google or apple will not be such a hot stock in 10-20 years either but guess what? I bought many many shares and did very well.

 

I agree with everything you wrote.

 

Quick question, who exactly is buying these comics that are being turned into TV and movies? I promise you, while a TV show or movie might bring in a few people, the vast majority of these comics are being driven up in price by the current comic collectors/speculators/dealers. They don't want to miss out on the next "hot thing". Considering all that has happened to the market through the 80s and 90s, it shouldn't surprise anyone that the people who are left collecting comics are die hard fans. They didn't mind the abuse from publishers (otherwise, why are they still reading after comic prices rose quickly from $1.00 or less to 4 times this amount, not to mention the poor stewardship many of the long lived characters have had to endure) and they seem to not mind paying through the nose for a comic that they could have gotten last week for much less.

 

The market today is at a perfect place for speculation:

 

- A huge rise in prices for Silver Age comics over the past 20 years.

- The Walking Dead's success on TV along with a healthy rise in Walking Dead back issues has contributed to a myth that any property made into a TV show or movie is going to go up.

- Only die hard comic fans/speculators left buying modern comics.

 

I honestly don't see this crowd being driven off by more of the same. In fact, we/they seem to thrive on it!

 

[Aweandlorder]

Absolutely. We the speculators are responsible for sculpting the future pop culture.

Think about that for a second

[SquareChaos]

The Livewire explanation I've heard is that it is a popular cosplay? :shrug: Seems flimsy to me.

 

But yeah, I've said it before too - speculators are selling to speculators. Digital won't explode unless they price it at $1 a book. The comic industry is hurting itself with the current business model of constant events, crossovers, and meaningless story arcs.

 

At the same time, publishers like Image may be hurting themselves by not building sustainable, long term IPs to help them survive during the lean years, and to be a sort of security blanket for people who want to get into the hobby in later years - IPs are an easy entry point. Few people start reading comics via Transmetropolitan - they come for Batman and say for The Authority or Preacher or Watchmen.

[dupont2005]

Except when you look at graphic novel sales in bookstores, they're looking for exactly that. Self contained stories, most likely something renown and awarded like MAUS or something they saw on a bestseller list in the newspaper. Not something with their favorite character from when they were ten. There is growth in the industry. Revenues are increasing. The biggest growth I think is online though, among comics that look like this

 

You may say that graphic novel sales in bookstores is a tiny share of the market, and you'd be right. But twenty years ago there were three times as many comic shops and no graphic novel section in any bookstore. There was the humor section, with Garfield collections. That's it. The growth has been outside the direct market through online retailers like DCBS, through bookstore distribution, and through webcomics and digital distribution like Comixology. We're going to see things change big time. Nobody is going to buy multiple copies of a digital comic. Nobody is paying extra for a blank cover on a digital comic. Those sales methods aren't going to last another decade.

 

While I want to agree with what you are writing, I don't think your conclusions are correct. Comic collectors/speculators like spending big money on the hot comic and I thought at one time that would die out, but now I'm not so sure. I honestly believe the market has lost all rational thought in recent years.

 

Collectors/speculators are:

 

- Spending hundreds (and is some cases thousands) of dollars for books that are just printed. (I've seen several listing for brand new comics on DCBS for $1000 from Dynamite Entertainment in the past year.)

 

- Buying comics based on unsubstantiated TV or movie rumors. (Pick any Image title or Marvel or DC superhero.)

 

- Driving up comic prices on characters based on flimsy pretences. (Sorry, but can someone please, please explain why Livewire is a hot character? I have asked and haven't really received an answer. This almost feels like a board prank that was played and everyone bought into it.)

 

I'm pretty sure the publishers know this is where there bread and butter is and they are more than happy to keep pumping out variants, first issues, revive/kill/change characters, and pump out event after event knowing it drives fanboys nuts. Not just the big two either, but Valiant, IDW, Boom, Dynamite Entertainment, Dark Horse, Image, etc. are all participating in this. Marvel and DC both have stated that this is what the comic buying public wants and are more than happy to keep cranking it out. When you look at the history of comics from the very beginning, publishers are basically doing what they have always done, latching onto the latest fad/trend, and pumping away until the next fad/trend.

 

Finally, digital sales growth have slowed considerably. It is unlikely that digital sales are going to overtake print sales (if you had asked me a few years ago, I would have thought so, but not any more) and looks to be settling in around 15-20% of print. Publishers are now looking at digital sales like TPB sales, as an additional revenue source for their publishing, not as an eventual publishing paradigm.

 

So, collectors/speculators, publishers, and the economics of digital all lead me to believe we won't be seeing any wholesale change in the comic market in the next decade.

Speculators aren't enough to keep new floppies afloat. How many CGC 9.8 collectors do you think there are? Modern comic specific? Who buy every issue of a series and not just the issues they think will be hot?

 

I didn't say digital will overtake print, I said it's a new avenue of distribution, and a new source of revenue. A distribution avenue and revenue source that smaller publishers are beating the big two at. Same with trades. Marvel and DC barely break the top ten trades through Diamond. And that's through Diamond. Bookstores are even worse for them. This second and third source of revenue that is working fantastic for every publisher but the ones relying on the direct market is going to keep them afloat and help them better transition as the direct market dies a slow, painful death.

 

I don't think Marvel and DC are going to go out of business. I'm not even sure they will ever be anything less than the "big two."

 

I DO think they are going to very quickly be sharing a much smaller piece of the market. Right now they share about 80% together. Two publishers who specialize in one genre, focused on an outdated distribution system. Their marketshare drops daily though, and eventually I imagine it will be around 30%, combined. And I think by that point they'll have ended the feet stomping reluctance to reevaluate their business model, and you'll see quite a different Marvel and DC.

 

Digital growth has stalled, but it's still growth, and considering it was expanding at about 80% per year, it shouldn't be expected to keep that pace up. Digital readers and tablets are only going to become cheaper and more common, with more and more lightly used and discounted option on eBay and Craigslist in the meanwhile. Eventually, as the influence of the print retailers and distributors becomes less so, expect digital day of release prices to drop below that of print, making it financially appealing to all modern readers with large pull lists to invest $200 in a reader to save 50% on every comic they buy.

 

And while bookstores are closing down just like comic shops, while the point of distribution remains, comics become a larger and larger part of it. Except Marvel comics, because they threw in the towel.

[dupont2005]

I honestly don't see this crowd being driven off by more of the same. In fact, we/they seem to thrive on it!

Not this crowd specifically, no. How many of us are there though, compared to actual readers? A small portion. You turn off readers to please speculators and we have 1992 all over again.

[dupont2005]

The Livewire explanation I've heard is that it is a popular cosplay? :shrug: Seems flimsy to me.

 

But yeah, I've said it before too - speculators are selling to speculators. Digital won't explode unless they price it at $1 a book. The comic industry is hurting itself with the current business model of constant events, crossovers, and meaningless story arcs.

 

At the same time, publishers like Image may be hurting themselves by not building sustainable, long term IPs to help them survive during the lean years, and to be a sort of security blanket for people who want to get into the hobby in later years - IPs are an easy entry point. Few people start reading comics via Transmetropolitan - they come for Batman and say for The Authority or Preacher or Watchmen.

They don't need to build IP, they need to build positive relationships with the best talent in the industry. They seem to be working pretty hard at it, my main fear is the larger they get, the less appealing that relationship may become.

[SquareChaos]

The Livewire explanation I've heard is that it is a popular cosplay? :shrug: Seems flimsy to me.

 

But yeah, I've said it before too - speculators are selling to speculators. Digital won't explode unless they price it at $1 a book. The comic industry is hurting itself with the current business model of constant events, crossovers, and meaningless story arcs.

 

At the same time, publishers like Image may be hurting themselves by not building sustainable, long term IPs to help them survive during the lean years, and to be a sort of security blanket for people who want to get into the hobby in later years - IPs are an easy entry point. Few people start reading comics via Transmetropolitan - they come for Batman and say for The Authority or Preacher or Watchmen.

They don't need to build IP, they need to build positive relationships with the best talent in the industry. They seem to be working pretty hard at it, my main fear is the larger they get, the less appealing that relationship may become.

 

I think it is pretty clear we disagree on the Image IP topic

[dupont2005]

If Image relied on preserving IP instead of cultivating imaginative new projects they'd still be publishing Youngblood, or be out of business.