OAAW 83's potential to be a top 5 SA key?

[Illustrious]

So this thread has gone on so long I finally decided to look it up on GPA. After having done so I can honestly say that it's grand total of 5 record sales in 2014 are underwhelming.

 

$7400 for 7.0, its second highest recorded grade GPA has a recorded sale for.

 

Three sales for a 4.0, two of which barely made $1800.

 

And just $813 for a 3.5 a couple months ago?

 

I know GPA doesn't record all of the sales that happened in the world, but it's hard to imagine that only the "good ones" have occurred outside of public eyes.

 

After seeing this it is pretty clear why the book does not rank on Overstreet's list.

 

I know the book and the genre has its fans, but the numbers on it are weak.

 

-J.

 

 

J, would you happen to know what the recent average sales are for these OSPG top 20 keys in the same grades:

 

- Green Lantern 1

- Justice League of America 1

- FF 5

- FF 2

 

Thx,

John

 

[1950's war comics]

I'm glad war comics hardly have any keys, that's what makes them fun and affordable to collect! Pre code horror used to be that way and there are no keys in that genre either ..but those prices went up pretty high comparable to war of the same period , I like where war comics are right now, I will stop my run of OAAW at issue #80 and then probably move on to another golden age DC big 5 war series, a decent CGC 5.0 or better OAAW #1 could actually be the best investment wise issue to get , not #83. IMO

Ironically the same scenario exists somewhat in the Journey Into Mystery series with #1 compared to #83, Thor is way more popular but if I did have 5K to buy one of them (which I probably never will) I would take the JIM #1 any day over #83, except for the #1 could take years of looking for one to surface. That's just me and I am a collector not an investor.

[Gatsby77]

Thank you, Jaydog.

 

That's been my point exactly. I've tracked OAAW 81-100 (& actively collected them) for the last five years.

 

And putting together the GPA and C-link sales, it's not just that the prices put it at roughly # 18 on the list, but that the fact that OAAW has been far more available for sale the last 6 months than at any other time over the last five year = diminishing demand.

 

I was the underbidder on the Clink 5.5 and 4.0 as well.

 

Off the top of my head, I know that Showcase 22 in 5.0 and OAAW 5.0 are both ~$2,400 books at current market. But Showcase 22 has a far broader fan base & would sell more quickly because of it. I don't think Green Lantern 1 is top 20, whereas I believe ASM 2, FF 2 and 5 are, with 4 nipping at their heels.

 

And to 1950 War collector's point, note that he would only stop at OAAW 80.

 

That's telling. You can argue the merits of OAAW 81 vs. 83 all you want, but I want to see a serious Rock collector who would start his collection at 83, and not collect 81-82 because they weren't actual appearances.

 

At the end of the day, you've got to go 81-up, which diminishes 83's importance.

[comick1]

Thank you, Jaydog.

 

That's been my point exactly. I've tracked OAAW 81-100 (& actively collected them) for the last five years.

 

And putting together the GPA and C-link sales, it's not just that the prices put it at roughly # 18 on the list, but that the fact that OAAW has been far more available for sale the last 6 months than at any other time over the last five year = diminishing demand.

 

I was the underbidder on the Clink 5.5 and 4.0 as well.

 

Off the top of my head, I know that Showcase 22 in 5.0 and OAAW 5.0 are both ~$2,400 books at current market. But Showcase 22 has a far broader fan base & would sell more quickly because of it. I don't think Green Lantern 1 is top 20, whereas I believe ASM 2, FF 2 and 5 are, with 4 nipping at their heels.

 

And to 1950 War collector's point, note that he would only stop at OAAW 80.

 

That's telling. You can argue the merits of OAAW 81 vs. 83 all you want, but I want to see a serious Rock collector who would start his collection at 83, and not collect 81-82 because they weren't actual appearances.

 

At the end of the day, you've got to go 81-up, which diminishes 83's importance.

 

Well, actually. . .

 

I have been collecting Sgt. Rock for nearly 25 years in grade. . .

 

. . .and don't have and have never had a #81. There are some other factors at play here. If I truly felt the way you're framing it, I think I would've gotten a #81 a long time ago. Part of the problem is that I DON'T feel that strongly about it. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to have it as a prototype, but there are some other factors at play here. I love Sgt. Rock, but for the first 15 years of collecting war books, I decided to broaden my focus to include non-Rock issues from about 1955 up that feature Kubert, Heath, Drucker, & Severin interiors.

 

There are unusual books that DON'T feature a story by any of those guys on interiors, but then I was cool with purchasing a book for a nice Grandenetti cover which seems like about 1/2 of the 10¢ era war books. With those criteria, I figured out that I am interested in about 90%+ of the issues, so I wound up about 10 years ago finally deciding that I'd go ahead and be a completist. It didn't hurt that over the course of the first 15 years, the interior art from folks like Novick, A&E, and [especially] Grandenetti started to grow on me. So I just went for it. The problem is that a high grade copy of OAAW 81 has always been a pretty pricey proposition when it pops up in decent condition. I just had way too many other books I needed to get that collectively were more important than the #81. And for the few times that a decent copy was within my sights, I was just too tapped to afford it because I'd spent all my $$ on filling holes in the hundreds of 10¢er runs that I needed. Probably could've done a time-payment on one or two of those occasions, but it just meant tying up $$ that I'd inevitably need for the other books.

 

This is the honest truth: I don't have #81, but I do want one. Partly because it has an important Sgt. Rock prototype, but MOSTLY because it has great Kubert and Heath stories (not the Sgt. Rocky story). I like A&E alright, but generally not a huge motivating factor. I actually prefer the A&E work on Robin Hood, early Wonder Womans, and especially Annie Oakley (Atlas). If it's thousands of dollars to get an 8.0 copy (which is the range I'm holding out for), I'm not totally sure I'll be getting one soon. . .if ever. Just too many other things to get that are more important for me. I'd be bummed for not having a nice copy with those Kubert and Heath stories, but I am OK with working on completing my collection over the course of my life and not getting that book.

 

So no, I don't have to have #81. I have ALWAYS thought that if I died without a #81 but had a decent #83 and EVERY other copy of the 10¢ war runs in the ranges I prioritize, then everything'd be cool.

 

. . .and everything's cool. (thumbs u

 

 

 

As far as this speculation about disappearing war collectors and the like, another thing that my collecting habits [and those of MOST of the serious war collectors I meet] may reveal is that we're into it for the art (which IMHO was always TOP NOTCH in DC war). . .less for the characters or key appearances, etc. I think that's another reason that there'll always be a core group of war collectors. The art collectors I know are a pretty devoted and committed group of folks, too.

[RockMyAmadeus]

[comick1]

 

[Jaydogrules]

So this thread has gone on so long I finally decided to look it up on GPA. After having done so I can honestly say that it's grand total of 5 record sales in 2014 are underwhelming.

 

$7400 for 7.0, its second highest recorded grade GPA has a recorded sale for.

 

Three sales for a 4.0, two of which barely made $1800.

 

And just $813 for a 3.5 a couple months ago?

 

I know GPA doesn't record all of the sales that happened in the world, but it's hard to imagine that only the "good ones" have occurred outside of public eyes.

 

After seeing this it is pretty clear why the book does not rank on Overstreet's list.

 

I know the book and the genre has its fans, but the numbers on it are weak.

 

-J.

 

 

J, would you happen to know what the recent average sales are for these OSPG top 20 keys in the same grades:

 

- Green Lantern 1

- Justice League of America 1

- FF 5

- FF 2

 

Thx,

John

 

Again this is part of the problem, and why I now believe the book does not rank. You simply cannot compare a book that barely has a handful of public sales a year with a book that has several hundreds of sales. It's apples and oranges. The book may be "the top key war book" but trying to rank it against mainstream comics is a non-starter, because it just simply cannot be done. Overstreet has obviously created a war section to make sure that the genre still gets its proper due. But trying to shoehorn the book onto a mainstream list is a bit like p!ss-!ng in the wind, as my grandfather used to say.

 

-J.

 

[bronze johnny]

So this thread has gone on so long I finally decided to look it up on GPA. After having done so I can honestly say that it's grand total of 5 record sales in 2014 are underwhelming.

 

$7400 for 7.0, its second highest recorded grade GPA has a recorded sale for.

 

Three sales for a 4.0, two of which barely made $1800.

 

And just $813 for a 3.5 a couple months ago?

 

I know GPA doesn't record all of the sales that happened in the world, but it's hard to imagine that only the "good ones" have occurred outside of public eyes.

 

After seeing this it is pretty clear why the book does not rank on Overstreet's list.

 

I know the book and the genre has its fans, but the numbers on it are weak.

 

-J.

 

 

J, would you happen to know what the recent average sales are for these OSPG top 20 keys in the same grades:

 

- Green Lantern 1

- Justice League of America 1

- FF 5

- FF 2

 

Thx,

John

 

Again this is part of the problem, and why I now believe the book does not rank. You simply cannot compare a book that barely has a handful of public sales a year with a book that has several hundreds of sales. It's apples and oranges. The book may be "the top key war book" but trying to rank it against mainstream comics is a non-starter, because it just simply cannot be done. Overstreet has obviously created a war section to make sure that the genre still gets its proper due. But trying to shoehorn the book onto a mainstream list is a bit like p!ss-!ng in the wind, as my grandfather used to say.

 

-J.

 

 

- I think Andy would have a better idea than all of us here as to what the motivation was for adding Overstreet's War Report to the guide. I do believe that it was time for this genre to get its well deserved attention (as I hope other genres do).

 

- It's an accepted practice to compare scarce books to those in the mainstream as we've seen before. To correct the problem you point out would require the consensus of collectors to correct the Overstreet "produce aisle" where low printed variants and independent keys (apples) are consistently placed in top 10/20 lists (see OSPG Top 10 BA books) and compared to mainstream books (oranges) (see that BA Aardvark book we discussed in Bronze and Motion Picture Funnies Weekly in GA). Having a specialized "Top books" list separate from mainstream keys would be a first step in tackling this.

 

- Again, it's Overstreet and the great War Report crew who are responsible for shoehorning 83 onto mainstream books - It was even mentioned in an earlier thread how they lobbied Bob to try to get him to add 83 to the Top 20 SA keys list. I just happen to agree with them.

 

- I'm in good company with those " in the wind."

 

Now if you don't have it, go and get a copy and add it to your awesome sig line!

 

 

 

[Aman619]

No problem comparing plentiful superhero keys to a scarcer war key... You just compare values. After all, this thread is all about the VALUE of 83 ranking it in the top 20 comics by ERA... Not any other criteria.

 

If it's valued in NM- higher than the 21st highest valued comicbook, it makes the top 20. Regardless of scarcity or content.

[Aman619]

Having said that, I don't think it will ever be in the Top Five..

[bronze johnny]

Having said that, I don't think it will ever be in the Top Five..

 

Agreed as to both of your posts. (thumbs u

[roulette44]

No problem comparing plentiful superhero keys to a scarcer war key... You just compare values. After all, this thread is all about the VALUE of 83 ranking it in the top 20 comics by ERA... Not any other criteria.

 

If it's valued in NM- higher than the 21st highest valued comicbook, it makes the top 20. Regardless of scarcity or content.

 

+1

 

and Jaydog, how long have you been collecting books to back up your strong opinions? just trying to understand

[drbanner]

You can somewhat normalize the value comparison of scarce books like this with key/high-demand mainstream/common valuable books by looking at the value of the 10th highest graded copy (or 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.). Greg Holland's database and GPA make this comparison easy to do.

 

There are ~93 Universally graded copies of OAAW 83, with the 10th highest copy being a 7.0 and the highest being a 9.0. GPA shows one recent sale of a 7.0 @$7,400.

 

In a recent OS, FF 2 is listed at the 20th most valuable SA book. There are ~540 Universally graded copies of FF2, with the 10th highest copy being a 9.2 and a FF 2 in 9.2 sold for $11k+ in 2011. And there's a 9.8 copy!

[roulette44]

You can somewhat normalize the value comparison of scarce books like this with key/high-demand mainstream/common valuable books by looking at the value of the 10th highest graded copy (or 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.). Greg Holland's database and GPA make this comparison easy to do.

 

There are ~93 Universally graded copies of OAAW 83, with the 10th highest copy being a 7.0 and the highest being a 9.0. GPA shows one recent sale of a 7.0 @$7,400.

 

In a recent OS, FF 2 is listed at the 20th most valuable SA book. There are ~540 Universally graded copies of FF2, with the 10th highest copy being a 9.2 and a FF 2 in 9.2 sold for $11k+ in 2011. And there's a 9.8 copy!

 

That seems a bit bizarre to me, comparing a 9.2's value with a 7.0's value?

 

[bronze johnny]

You can somewhat normalize the value comparison of scarce books like this with key/high-demand mainstream/common valuable books by looking at the value of the 10th highest graded copy (or 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.). Greg Holland's database and GPA make this comparison easy to do.

 

There are ~93 Universally graded copies of OAAW 83, with the 10th highest copy being a 7.0 and the highest being a 9.0. GPA shows one recent sale of a 7.0 @$7,400.

 

In a recent OS, FF 2 is listed at the 20th most valuable SA book. There are ~540 Universally graded copies of FF2, with the 10th highest copy being a 9.2 and a FF 2 in 9.2 sold for $11k+ in 2011. And there's a 9.8 copy!

 

That seems a bit bizarre to me, comparing a 9.2's value with a 7.0's value?

 

Same here- I can see comparing books that are closer in grade but a 9.2's value to that of a 7.0's?

[thirdgreenham]

 

$7400 for 7.0, its second highest recorded grade GPA has a recorded sale for.

 

Three sales for a 4.0, two of which barely made $1800.

 

And just $813 for a 3.5 a couple months ago?

Last 3 ComicLink sales include:

 

6.5 for $6400 in June

5.5 for $2400 in Sept

4.0 for $2187 in Dec

 

 

 

those two low grade raw copies sold for about $900 each.....

 

 

J, would you happen to know what the recent average sales are for these OSPG top 20 keys in the same grades:

 

- Green Lantern 1

- Justice League of America 1

- FF 5

- FF 2

 

Thx,

John

 

Let me dig those up for you, John (thumbs u

 

- Green Lantern 1

7.0 12-month avg. $2715 Last $2800

6.5 12-month avg. $1700 Last $1551

5.5 12-month avg. $1115 Last $1115

4.0 12-month avg. $633 Last $600

 

- Justice League of America 1

7.0 12-month avg. n/a Last $2629

6.5 12-month avg. $3300 Last $3300

5.5 12-month avg. n/a Last $1584

4.0 12-month avg. $1008 Last $988

 

- FF 5

7.0 12-month avg. $3050 Last $3000

6.5 12-month avg. $2372 Last $2627

5.5 12-month avg. $1812 Last $2390

4.0 12-month avg. $1004 Last $896

 

- FF 2

7.0 12-month avg. $1912 Last $1912

6.5 12-month avg. $1688 Last $1995

5.5 12-month avg. $1095 Last $1300

4.0 12-month avg. $801 Last $625

----------------------------------------------------------------------

OAAW 83 as mentioned

7.0 12-month avg. $7400 Last $7400

6.5 12-month avg. $5906 Last $5906

5.5 12-month avg. n/a Last $1315

4.0 12-month avg. $2006 Last $2399

 

 

As Aman suggested, looking at price rather than scarcity/popularity, is actually the way to go, as the top 20 silver age books, according to Overstreet, are compiled exactly by this criteria.

 

Now, I know it's hard to get Overstreet to make any big price moves (up or down). I also imagine if they were made aware that OAAW 83 was challenging for spot #17-20, they would probably act on it a year or two later, just to make sure that the pricing really does justify it being there, rather than just a hot-book-of-the-moment.

 

 

[bronze johnny]

 

$7400 for 7.0, its second highest recorded grade GPA has a recorded sale for.

 

Three sales for a 4.0, two of which barely made $1800.

 

And just $813 for a 3.5 a couple months ago?

Last 3 ComicLink sales include:

 

6.5 for $6400 in June

5.5 for $2400 in Sept

4.0 for $2187 in Dec

 

 

 

those two low grade raw copies sold for about $900 each.....

 

 

J, would you happen to know what the recent average sales are for these OSPG top 20 keys in the same grades:

 

- Green Lantern 1

- Justice League of America 1

- FF 5

- FF 2

 

Thx,

John

 

Let me dig those up for you, John (thumbs u

 

- Green Lantern 1

7.0 12-month avg. $2715 Last $2800

6.5 12-month avg. $1700 Last $1551

5.5 12-month avg. $1115 Last $1115

4.0 12-month avg. $633 Last $600

 

- Justice League of America 1

7.0 12-month avg. n/a Last $2629

6.5 12-month avg. $3300 Last $3300

5.5 12-month avg. n/a Last $1584

4.0 12-month avg. $1008 Last $988

 

- FF 5

7.0 12-month avg. $3050 Last $3000

6.5 12-month avg. $2372 Last $2627

5.5 12-month avg. $1812 Last $2390

4.0 12-month avg. $1004 Last $896

 

- FF 2

7.0 12-month avg. $1912 Last $1912

6.5 12-month avg. $1688 Last $1995

5.5 12-month avg. $1095 Last $1300

4.0 12-month avg. $801 Last $625

----------------------------------------------------------------------

OAAW 83 as mentioned

7.0 12-month avg. $7400 Last $7400

6.5 12-month avg. $5906 Last $5906

5.5 12-month avg. n/a Last $1315

4.0 12-month avg. $2006 Last $2399

 

 

As Aman suggested, looking at price rather than scarcity/popularity, is actually the way to go, as the top 20 silver age books, according to Overstreet, are compiled exactly by this criteria.

 

Now, I know it's hard to get Overstreet to make any big price moves (up or down). I also imagine if they were made aware that OAAW 83 was challenging for spot #17-20, they would probably act on it a year or two later, just to make sure that the pricing really does justify it being there, rather than just a hot-book-of-the-moment.

 

 

Thanks Andy (thumbs u

That's a huge difference as I suspected. Let's see if Bob adds 83 to the list in the upcoming edition. Andy, please let me suggest that 83's place among the top 20 SA keys be mentioned in the War Report of the upcoming 45th Ed. of the Guide- to see the key war book placing among the superhero keys is great for the genre and the hobby imho.

[drbanner]

That seems a bit bizarre to me, comparing a 9.2's value with a 7.0's value?

Not really, certainly no less bizarre than comparing Bob Overstreet's estimated value of a book that may not even exist (a 9.2 copy) with his estimated value of a book that certainly does exist and with documented sales in grade.

 

You only have to look at the most any single book has ever actually sold for to rank the top Silver Age books. How many Silver Age books have sold for more than $16,730 (the highest recorded sales price of OAAW 83)? The book has an offer of $22,000 on Heritage, so how many Silver Age books have sold for more than $22,000? I suspect it's much more than 20...30...40?

 

It's a nice talking point that OS lists a price for this book in 9.2, but if it doesn't even exist...is it really the 20th most valuable SA book? No.

 

[roulette44]

That seems a bit bizarre to me, comparing a 9.2's value with a 7.0's value?

Not really, certainly no less bizarre than comparing Bob Overstreet's estimated value of a book that may not even exist (a 9.2 copy) with his estimated value of a book that certainly does exist and with documented sales in grade.

 

You only have to look at the most any single book has ever actually sold for to rank the top Silver Age books. How many Silver Age books have sold for more than $16,730 (the highest recorded sales price of OAAW 83)? The book has an offer of $22,000 on Heritage, so how many Silver Age books have sold for more than $22,000? I suspect it's much more than 20...30...40?

 

It's a nice talking point that OS lists a price for this book in 9.2, but if it doesn't even exist...is it really the 20th most valuable SA book? No.

 

I think comparing prices of a comparable grade across books, as Andy or Aman just did (focusing on grades which exist and have recorded sales data) is a whole lot more credible.

[drbanner]

I think comparing prices of a comparable grade across books, as Andy or Aman just did (focusing on grades which exist and have recorded sales data) is a whole lot more credible.

What's a "comparable grade", the exact same grade for every book?

 

Do you think a 9.8 OAAW 83 would sell for more than the 9.8 FF 2 sold for?