Will there be a Market for "Completionist" Comic Books in 30 Years?

[mintcollector]

The market for "completionist" collecting is already kaput.

 

The lifestyle of sprawl and largesse is long gone. The middle-class is becoming more minimalist. Single folks don't want to be paying for large pads - they simply can't afford it on their paychecks, even if they have 3 jobs. The 30 something's and older with kids are always struggling for space, and curating a collection with young kids around is tough. The elite - let's face it, the worlds richest have been taking baths with this economy just as much as the stories we hear of them making fortunes.

 

It's happened in every major collectible category. Coin collectors aren't going for complete year sets or types. Card collectors - gravitating to rookies. Toy collectors - first wave, character debuts. Comics - well, if you haven't seen the way everyone is looking for the same 20 key books, then there's no point even asking the question.

 

It comes down to scaling to economic circumstances, demographics, and disposable incomes. There is another side of this that's worth hearing. I know several massive comic and coin collections. The owners will not piece them out. I have tried to work the numbers, but even if I can make 20-30% return, I need to consider inheriting the headache of storing 90% of the books, which are full runs of every major Marvel SA title, and the flagship DC titles. The coins are cool, but the stuff older than a 100 years old are typically smaller fragments of the the bigger collections. The key dates, rare types and error coins are what people care about from the rest, and hanging on to a set for displaying or browsing might seem fun, but makes no economic sense.

 

Do I blame these guys for holding out for the right buyer who wants an instant collection? Not one bit. And make no mistake about it, the pattern of completists methods are on a collision course with key collecting and it's costing us all, because the few who do give in, are forcing the values to climb, because the only way they'll allow their collections to be cherry-picked is to make it worth their while to sit on the rest. Want the book - the acquisition cost has to incorporate leaving their collections incomplete, and the owners stuck with stuff no one wants.

 

The dealers have become well versed in paying higher, because the market has been tolerant and are absorbing the goods, even at the rate of growth some of these keys are experiencing. Resistance will come, whether it's collectors who won't allow their collections to be pieced out, or dealers marking up at a price point where collectors just start to throw in the towel.

 

 

I am on an iPad Mini so I couldn't quote the section I wanted to comment on solely, but I can assure you that the wealthy have done very well during the economic recovery. Not to get too detailed, but my own net worth more than doubled if not tripled thanks in part to most of the economic recovery going to the top 20%. This didn't happen by accident. Until the US starts to address the growing issue of income equality the true economic recovery will not be felt by all Americans. This is why collectibles are such a bad investment overall. Very few people going forward will be able to afford them. I continue to bid against the same group of buyers at most auctions I attend and sad to say with almost 49% of the population on some kind of Government assistance, this pool continues to get smaller and smaller. I don't think that buying 'keys' is the answer because a lot of popular collecting hobbies don't have so called 'keys,' they have 'rares' instead. These are not the same. By rare I mean less than 25 known examples. AF 15 is a key with much more than 25 known copies, but it is anything but rare.

 

Edited to Add: Aside from that input I think ComicWiz is spot on.

[vaillant]

My point is that FF 1-100, ASM, 1-200, JiM 83-120, TOS 39-60 etc are nearly all keys.

 

What keys are there in the ASM run between # 53 - 95? Death of Capt. Stacy?

 

Death of Captain Stacy surely qualifies as one of the most poignant and meaningful Marvel stories, but by memory (I collect just selected issues of Spidey) there are many issues which deserves to be had in the run suggested by TF.

 

As far as the FF go, I must say that not only #1-100 but #1-200 as well are surely all worthy to be had. Not necessarily key stories, but good and great stories all over, until the quality declined a bit before the Byrne period (which I do not appreciate at the same degree but was better than what they had been doing for a year or so befor that). After Byrne… the quality starts to falter. The second Englehart period is so-so, and the third, considered Englehart was not left free to write and started writing using a pseudonym (John Harkness) is even worse, up to the stagnant DeFalco period (which has some highlights nonetheless) and then we had to wait for Simonson. I consider the Pacheco run the last one to fully respect the characters' conception, although the initial Straczynski storyline was good to some degree and explored Reed's root motivations. After Civil War… no comment.

As much as Millar and Hickman wrote "good" storylines, these are not the FFs for what I care, but just a personal and often pretty presumptuous interpretation of them (especially Hickman's who likes to play the "Deus ex machina" in his ambitious storytelling). I do not even mention Fraction and the current run…

[ComicConnoisseur]

The market for "completionist" collecting is already kaput.

 

The lifestyle of sprawl and largesse is long gone. The middle-class is becoming more minimalist. Single folks don't want to be paying for large pads - they simply can't afford it on their paychecks, even if they have 3 jobs. The 30 something's and older with kids are always struggling for space, and curating a collection with young kids around is tough. The elite - let's face it, the worlds richest have been taking baths with this economy just as much as the stories we hear of them making fortunes.

 

It's happened in every major collectible category. Coin collectors aren't going for complete year sets or types. Card collectors - gravitating to rookies. Toy collectors - first wave, character debuts. Comics - well, if you haven't seen the way everyone is looking for the same 20 key books, then there's no point even asking the question.

 

It comes down to scaling to economic circumstances, demographics, and disposable incomes. There is another side of this that's worth hearing. I know several massive comic and coin collections. The owners will not piece them out. I have tried to work the numbers, but even if I can make 20-30% return, I need to consider inheriting the headache of storing 90% of the books, which are full runs of every major Marvel SA title, and the flagship DC titles. The coins are cool, but the stuff older than a 100 years old are typically smaller fragments of the the bigger collections. The key dates, rare types and error coins are what people care about from the rest, and hanging on to a set for displaying or browsing might seem fun, but makes no economic sense.

 

Do I blame these guys for holding out for the right buyer who wants an instant collection? Not one bit. And make no mistake about it, the pattern of completists methods are on a collision course with key collecting and it's costing us all, because the few who do give in, are forcing the values to climb, because the only way they'll allow their collections to be cherry-picked is to make it worth their while to sit on the rest. Want the book - the acquisition cost has to incorporate leaving their collections incomplete, and the owners stuck with stuff no one wants.

 

The dealers have become well versed in paying higher, because the market has been tolerant and are absorbing the goods, even at the rate of growth some of these keys are experiencing. Resistance will come, whether it's collectors who won't allow their collections to be pieced out, or dealers marking up at a price point where collectors just start to throw in the towel.

 

 

I am on an iPad Mini so I couldn't quote the section I wanted to comment on solely, but I can assure you that the wealthy have done very well during the economic recovery. Not to get too detailed, but my own net worth more than doubled if not tripled thanks in part to most of the economic recovery going to the top 20%. This didn't happen by accident. Until the US starts to address the growing issue of income equality the true economic recovery will not be felt by all Americans. This is why collectibles are such a bad investment overall. Very few people going forward will be able to afford them. I continue to bid against the same group of buyers at most auctions I attend and sad to say with almost 49% of the population on some kind of Government assistance, this pool continues to get smaller and smaller. I don't think that buying 'keys' is the answer because a lot of popular collecting hobbies don't have so called 'keys,' they have 'rares' instead. These are not the same. By rare I mean less than 25 known examples. AF 15 is a key with much more than 25 known copies, but it is anything but rare.

 

Edited to Add: Aside from that input I think ComicWiz is spot on.

Good points. Most other hobbies don`t have keys.

I don`t think the US will start to address the growing issue of income equality for a long time. It will just continue to be. The millennials don`t really care about collecting stuff, unless it can be downloaded on an electronic device.

 

Like I said before KEY comic books got a big break because of the immense popularity of blockbuster movies. Most other hobbies didn`t get that break and are on life support. The question is how long can the movie hype comics bubble last? My answer would be another 10 years for the keys.

[comicwiz]

The market for "completionist" collecting is already kaput.

 

The lifestyle of sprawl and largesse is long gone. The middle-class is becoming more minimalist. Single folks don't want to be paying for large pads - they simply can't afford it on their paychecks, even if they have 3 jobs. The 30 something's and older with kids are always struggling for space, and curating a collection with young kids around is tough. The elite - let's face it, the worlds richest have been taking baths with this economy just as much as the stories we hear of them making fortunes.

 

It's happened in every major collectible category. Coin collectors aren't going for complete year sets or types. Card collectors - gravitating to rookies. Toy collectors - first wave, character debuts. Comics - well, if you haven't seen the way everyone is looking for the same 20 key books, then there's no point even asking the question.

 

It comes down to scaling to economic circumstances, demographics, and disposable incomes. There is another side of this that's worth hearing. I know several massive comic and coin collections. The owners will not piece them out. I have tried to work the numbers, but even if I can make 20-30% return, I need to consider inheriting the headache of storing 90% of the books, which are full runs of every major Marvel SA title, and the flagship DC titles. The coins are cool, but the stuff older than a 100 years old are typically smaller fragments of the the bigger collections. The key dates, rare types and error coins are what people care about from the rest, and hanging on to a set for displaying or browsing might seem fun, but makes no economic sense.

 

Do I blame these guys for holding out for the right buyer who wants an instant collection? Not one bit. And make no mistake about it, the pattern of completists methods are on a collision course with key collecting and it's costing us all, because the few who do give in, are forcing the values to climb, because the only way they'll allow their collections to be cherry-picked is to make it worth their while to sit on the rest. Want the book - the acquisition cost has to incorporate leaving their collections incomplete, and the owners stuck with stuff no one wants.

 

The dealers have become well versed in paying higher, because the market has been tolerant and are absorbing the goods, even at the rate of growth some of these keys are experiencing. Resistance will come, whether it's collectors who won't allow their collections to be pieced out, or dealers marking up at a price point where collectors just start to throw in the towel.

 

 

I am on an iPad Mini so I couldn't quote the section I wanted to comment on solely, but I can assure you that the wealthy have done very well during the economic recovery. Not to get too detailed, but my own net worth more than doubled if not tripled thanks in part to most of the economic recovery going to the top 20%. This didn't happen by accident. Until the US starts to address the growing issue of income equality the true economic recovery will not be felt by all Americans. This is why collectibles are such a bad investment overall. Very few people going forward will be able to afford them. I continue to bid against the same group of buyers at most auctions I attend and sad to say with almost 49% of the population on some kind of Government assistance, this pool continues to get smaller and smaller. I don't think that buying 'keys' is the answer because a lot of popular collecting hobbies don't have so called 'keys,' they have 'rares' instead. These are not the same. By rare I mean less than 25 known examples. AF 15 is a key with much more than 25 known copies, but it is anything but rare.

 

Edited to Add: Aside from that input I think ComicWiz is spot on.

 

Fair points. To be clear, by "elite" I was referring to the worlds richest, and while a lot of these are reported so average citizens don't feel too bad about their lot in life, when you hear a handful of the worlds richest fortunes dropping a combined $20-$50 Billion in a year, admidst global selloffs and big drops in the S&P index, that's got to hurt no matter how much their personal worth.

[Hamlet]

It's all about price. I like collecting runs of books, but I don't have interest in paying inflated prices for common, low-demand books.

 

When I find them at what I feel is a comfortable price-point, I buy them, but that price is usually in the $3-$5 range for most common VGish SA books.

 

I generally get outbid on E-bay when I'm trying to pick stuff up cheap, so there does appear to be solid demand for the non-key books, just not at high prices.

 

I doubt very much that this stuff is ever going to be languishing in dollar boxes for want of a buyer.

 

 

 

 

 

[Jeffro.]

My point is that FF 1-100, ASM, 1-200, JiM 83-120, TOS 39-60 etc are nearly all keys.

 

What keys are there in the ASM run between # 53 - 95? Death of Capt. Stacy?

 

ASM 1-200 is assuredly not nearly all keys. Good, fun, and sometimes great reads, but most are not what are defined as key issues.

[THB]

Have you guys seen the number of reprints on the new Ms. Marvel? Somebody keeps coming back to buy those. I would think if you put out a quality product you will attract a new breed of readers/collectors. I don't know the sales numbers but I think that title has been increasing. Walking Dead, Saga collector's seem to go after the whole run from what I can tell. You can't expect the kids to collect or even want our comics. Oh and my answer is Yes there will be a market. What books? I don't know but I have a feeling it will be a lot of new Marvel characters coming into play now.

[batman_fan]

As a completest, I have to say I have observed changes in pricing over the last several years. I am a Batman collector so that is the area I have the most info on. Here is what I see.

1. midgrade Batman's (4.0 to 7.0) with non-classic or villain covers sell under guide across the board. Prices have actually gone down over the last 10 years

2. Joker covers are selling for ~3x what they did even 5 years back.

3. ultra high grade still command a big premium. I think this is driven by a few deep pocket collectors who are completest and want the best.

 

I planned to do the Detective run (27 and up) but realized I would never be able to complete the run so I gave up. Now my buying is just:

1. Batman upgrades

2. Classic/keys

3. Books from my childhood

4. OA

 

[Buzzetta]

I have thought of this and it has been on my mind as I have been selling off ASM non-key bronze.

 

I will keep my AF15-100 Set slabbed and I have many slabbed and raw duplicates in that run. I have no problem keeping my slabbed and raw issues from 101 to current.

 

When it comes to the other things I collect, I go after silver keys and Golden Age.

 

Books like Tec 27 and Action 1 are unobtainable to me. However, I recently picked up an Action 33 which I really wanted for my permanent collection. I liked the cover of Detective Comics 92 and picked that up as well as Batman 46. There is nothing special that goes on in those books. They are not considered classic covers. However they are 70 year old comics and it is nice to have something that not many people own.

 

The new stuff? I do not believe that the new stuff will hold its value unless it is a Walking Dead 1 or something like that. However, I do believe that Golden Age and Silver Age common, non-key books will be desirable simply for a crowd that wants to own a nice copy of an original older comic book.

 

[thedude]

It's all about price. I like collecting runs of books, but I don't have interest in paying inflated prices for common, low-demand books.

 

When I find them at what I feel is a comfortable price-point, I buy them, but that price is usually in the $3-$5 range for most common VGish SA books.

 

I generally get outbid on E-bay when I'm trying to pick stuff up cheap, so there does appear to be solid demand for the non-key books, just not at high prices.

 

I doubt very much that this stuff is ever going to be languishing in dollar boxes for want of a buyer.

 

 

this, I buy non key common stuff all the time if I can get it for a decent price, NOT overstreet prices, but real world prices, which is why I don't bother with comic stores that are pricing their non key common books by OS guide, I understand why they do, but OS has been outdated in this area for some time now.

[backtomarvel]

Thirty years is awfully far out there to predict anything. Clothes styles come and go. We may see a decline in interest in commons for 25 years, then, when high grade commons are cheaper than dirt, the market will turn.

 

Who would have figured 10 years ago that Rocket Racoon's first appearance would blow up?

 

Also, keys are getting too far out of reach for most people.

[FineCollector]

By real world prices, do we mean that everything's worth a dollar? I think Overstreet is preventing the collapse of the modern comic market by maintaining their pricing. Yes, most books are available at less than current cover price. Does that mean that's all they'll sell for? Not at all, people have no issue paying $3 for "drek" they need, for whatever their reason.

[Artboy99]

from the perspective of selling at local comic conventions for over 7 years now.

 

I see less buyers with lists looking to complete their runs. Way less than I used to.

More buyers / more new buyers from more 12-25 female buyers to new male buyers. I also see a focus on keys, selling more and more of them than I used to.

I had a 17 year old girl buy an ASM 101 in 7.5 as an example. She said she loves Morbius. I see more of this each year.

 

Random observations with no real data to back it, just what I know I am selling.

[rjpb]

The other growth area aside from "keys" are "classic" and artist covers. Some of the biggest price gains among GA books over the last decade or so are for recognized classic covers or just plain cool cover books on their way there. For Silver and beyond, "classic covers" are less of a market, but the demand for covers by certain artists from Neal Adams at the tail end of the Silver Age to today's "hot" illustrators is perennially strong. The "completists" of the future are more likely to be Dave Stevens completists or Darwyn Cooke completists as they are Iron Man or Green Lantern completists. Some characters though, like Batman and Spider-man, will always be the focus of "long run" collectors. Their popularity too enduring for there not to be a committed fan base.

[Bill1]

Condition, condition, condition. Low to mid-grade will stagnate, high-grade will gain. If a collector can afford a $500 low to mid grade book, then he can afford a $1500 high grade book, and he would rather have that. As time goes by and high grade stock disappears, this is where the money and demand will be!

[comicwiz]

By real world prices, do we mean that everything's worth a dollar? I think Overstreet is preventing the collapse of the modern comic market by maintaining their pricing. Yes, most books are available at less than current cover price. Does that mean that's all they'll sell for? Not at all, people have no issue paying $3 for "drek" they need, for whatever their reason.

 

It's really difficult to pinpoint market on a lot of material deemed "non-key" or "common." The market and venue really matters.

 

For example, at non-comic shows, some material sits even in $1 boxes. Other stuff moves at higher value points, even when your intention is to move volume.

 

Now I've been able to take the same material sitting in the $1 box, and repackage it for retail. Meaning, I can sell that same $1 bin book for $1.25, and up to $2.50 to a retailer, who turns around and prices to resell at $3 and $5. I do a little bit of spoon-feeding, by sorting them in a way that "suggest" which books to sell for $3, and which to sell for $5. They sell it like hot cakes. My job is to replenish, and ensure they have material people will buy.

 

I've repeatedly done this using a throwback model of loaning a comic spinner rack at several local shops, moving several thousand books in the space of a few months, that so-called "collectors" would thumb their nose at if I didn't offer the exact same material for $20 by the long box.

 

I'm not complaining that the rest of the market considers these comics to be like selling hot chocolate in the desert. It's this mindset which allows me to continue to buy up inventory at an attractive enough price point to justify the tedious and time intensive nature of processing bulk acquisitions and repackaging them for retail.

 

Why would I sell a long box for $20 when I know I can get up to $560 for it?

 

How does a price guide appease these kinds of variances in the way back-issue comics are marketed and resold?

 

To expect "exacting" pricing models from a guide, printed or web-based, when collectors themselves are removed from the way "drek" should be priced, valued, and the kinds of methods used to market back-issue comics, is unrealistic. I like the practicality of it as a suggestion to what a book may be valued at, but I'm always thinking outside the box, and the way the market reacts to my approach to marketing back-issue comics is what really helps determine the market.

[Buzzetta]

Condition, condition, condition. Low to mid-grade will stagnate, high-grade will gain. If a collector can afford a $500 low to mid grade book, then he can afford a $1500 high grade book, and he would rather have that. As time goes by and high grade stock disappears, this is where the money and demand will be!

 

That depends on the book. There was a guy who posted over a year ago that people were paying around $400 to get a complete Hulk 181 in any grade. As the hi grade disappears many lower grades for CERTAIN books gain momentum as that is all that becomes available.

[mintcollector]

The market for "completionist" collecting is already kaput.

 

The lifestyle of sprawl and largesse is long gone. The middle-class is becoming more minimalist. Single folks don't want to be paying for large pads - they simply can't afford it on their paychecks, even if they have 3 jobs. The 30 something's and older with kids are always struggling for space, and curating a collection with young kids around is tough. The elite - let's face it, the worlds richest have been taking baths with this economy just as much as the stories we hear of them making fortunes.

 

It's happened in every major collectible category. Coin collectors aren't going for complete year sets or types. Card collectors - gravitating to rookies. Toy collectors - first wave, character debuts. Comics - well, if you haven't seen the way everyone is looking for the same 20 key books, then there's no point even asking the question.

 

It comes down to scaling to economic circumstances, demographics, and disposable incomes. There is another side of this that's worth hearing. I know several massive comic and coin collections. The owners will not piece them out. I have tried to work the numbers, but even if I can make 20-30% return, I need to consider inheriting the headache of storing 90% of the books, which are full runs of every major Marvel SA title, and the flagship DC titles. The coins are cool, but the stuff older than a 100 years old are typically smaller fragments of the the bigger collections. The key dates, rare types and error coins are what people care about from the rest, and hanging on to a set for displaying or browsing might seem fun, but makes no economic sense.

 

Do I blame these guys for holding out for the right buyer who wants an instant collection? Not one bit. And make no mistake about it, the pattern of completists methods are on a collision course with key collecting and it's costing us all, because the few who do give in, are forcing the values to climb, because the only way they'll allow their collections to be cherry-picked is to make it worth their while to sit on the rest. Want the book - the acquisition cost has to incorporate leaving their collections incomplete, and the owners stuck with stuff no one wants.

 

The dealers have become well versed in paying higher, because the market has been tolerant and are absorbing the goods, even at the rate of growth some of these keys are experiencing. Resistance will come, whether it's collectors who won't allow their collections to be pieced out, or dealers marking up at a price point where collectors just start to throw in the towel.

 

 

I am on an iPad Mini so I couldn't quote the section I wanted to comment on solely, but I can assure you that the wealthy have done very well during the economic recovery. Not to get too detailed, but my own net worth more than doubled if not tripled thanks in part to most of the economic recovery going to the top 20%. This didn't happen by accident. Until the US starts to address the growing issue of income equality the true economic recovery will not be felt by all Americans. This is why collectibles are such a bad investment overall. Very few people going forward will be able to afford them. I continue to bid against the same group of buyers at most auctions I attend and sad to say with almost 49% of the population on some kind of Government assistance, this pool continues to get smaller and smaller. I don't think that buying 'keys' is the answer because a lot of popular collecting hobbies don't have so called 'keys,' they have 'rares' instead. These are not the same. By rare I mean less than 25 known examples. AF 15 is a key with much more than 25 known copies, but it is anything but rare.

 

Edited to Add: Aside from that input I think ComicWiz is spot on.

 

Fair points. To be clear, by "elite" I was referring to the worlds richest, and while a lot of these are reported so average citizens don't feel too bad about their lot in life, when you hear a handful of the worlds richest fortunes dropping a combined $20-$50 Billion in a year, admidst global selloffs and big drops in the S&P index, that's got to hurt no matter how much their personal worth.

 

But these same people have recovered exponentially years later. In fact almost all the gains of our economic recovery went to the top. I am paying one of the lowest tax rates on record while our politically divided government continues to tell the poor and middle class that their taxes will continue to rise. For them maybe, but BOTH political parties made sure that my taxes remain quite low for the foreseeable future even going as far to cement the controversial tax cuts put in place by our previous president that allow me to skate by paying the bare minimum on capital gains; while lower classes got very little.

 

One of the reasons that low and middle class Americans continue to believe that the economy is still bad has nothing to do with the recovery. It simply has to do with the fact that the gap between the have and the have not's has gotten so large that the lower classes can no longer compete on an equal playing field. Saying anything more will venture too far into politics which I am trying to avoid. However you still bring up very valid points.

 

 

[Hamlet]

This isn't universally true.

 

As always, price matters, as the people who have lost 50% of their money buying bronze 9.8s at the peak will tell you.

 

Sure, a collector might prefer a $1500 high grade book to a mid-grade book, but would he prefer the high grade book at $2500? at $5000? at $20,000?

 

The last few years have shown that buying the absolute highest grade doesn't always give the best results.

 

Condition, condition, condition. Low to mid-grade will stagnate, high-grade will gain. If a collector can afford a $500 low to mid grade book, then he can afford a $1500 high grade book, and he would rather have that. As time goes by and high grade stock disappears, this is where the money and demand will be!

[mintcollector]

This isn't universally true.

 

As always, price matters, as the people who have lost 50% of their money buying bronze 9.8s at the peak will tell you.

 

Sure, a collector might prefer a $1500 high grade book to a mid-grade book, but would he prefer the high grade book at $2500? at $5000? at $20,000?

 

The last few years have shown that buying the absolute highest grade doesn't always give the best results.

 

Condition, condition, condition. Low to mid-grade will stagnate, high-grade will gain. If a collector can afford a $500 low to mid grade book, then he can afford a $1500 high grade book, and he would rather have that. As time goes by and high grade stock disappears, this is where the money and demand will be!

 

That is a very valid point, but that was mostly the fault of several early adopters chasing what they thought were scarce in grade keys. When pressing became the norm it was only natural for more ultra high grade copies to appear making those so called scarce issues less scarce. Just look at how many Hulk 181's now grace the coveted 9.8 spot. More interesting than that however is the massive price spreads those 9.8's have encountered.

 

Still I have always felt that the recent boom in mid grade keys makes them overvalued, so I fully agree with your point. Someone who can afford say a GS X-Men #1 in 9.2 or 9.4 isn't going to want one in 7.0 or even 8.0. After the current boom leaves our hobby those prices will fall. You are much better seeking out eye popping and accurately graded 9.2/9.4 copies instead.