Will there be a Market for "Completionist" Comic Books in 30 Years?

[rjpb]

For several decades there was a growing spread between prices on high and mid grade copies of nearly every book. Then cgc comes along and those gaps grow exponentially. In some cases the gaps were more or less sustainable as it became clear how scarce truly high grade copies were, but for others there was an illusion of scarcity while it took the census time to catch up. As a result of this and other factors, many high grade books from all eras got ahead of a sustainable market in their price rises and subsequently fell or at least leveled off in the highest grades. That's not to say that overall it still isn't a wiser investment long term to buy high grade than mid grade, but one still risks overpaying in the short term.

 

As the price gap expanded between the highest grades and attractive copies of a lower grade, many collectors have reevaluated just how nice a copy they need, and as for most of us the amount we have to spend on comics is finite, it doesn't always follow that a collector would rather have a $1500 copy of one book rather than three $500 books including a mid grade of the one.

 

Finally many collectors have minimum grades far below anything that would be called high grade that satisfy their desire to possess a given comic. Others would prefer not to spend more than a given amount on certain types of books regardless of grade. Sure given a choice of two copies for the same price, one will always choose the nicer, and for older books the relative scarcity of high grade in relation to all extant copies will keep the price ratios stronger than they were in the earlier days of fandom, but as most of us have a budget, that doesn't mean the absolute demand is stronger for high grade copies. I'd venture a guess there are way more collectors looking for a lower grade AF 15 than there are those looking for mid grade, let alone high grade copy.

 

This isn't universally true.

 

As always, price matters, as the people who have lost 50% of their money buying bronze 9.8s at the peak will tell you.

 

Sure, a collector might prefer a $1500 high grade book to a mid-grade book, but would he prefer the high grade book at $2500? at $5000? at $20,000?

 

The last few years have shown that buying the absolute highest grade doesn't always give the best results.

 

Condition, condition, condition. Low to mid-grade will stagnate, high-grade will gain. If a collector can afford a $500 low to mid grade book, then he can afford a $1500 high grade book, and he would rather have that. As time goes by and high grade stock disappears, this is where the money and demand will be!

[FineCollector]

Doesn't anyone else here have a mortgage? I can afford a $1500 comic, but I don't know that I'd want to spend that much when I can have a $500 copy and a vacation instead.

 

Still I have always felt that the recent boom in mid grade keys makes them overvalued, so I fully agree with your point. Someone who can afford say a GS X-Men #1 in 9.2 or 9.4 isn't going to want one in 7.0 or even 8.0. After the current boom leaves our hobby those prices will fall. You are much better seeking out eye popping and accurately graded 9.2/9.4 copies instead.

 

This boom you're talking about isn't collectors, moviegoers, or new readers setting those prices, it's resellers and flippers, and I'm fed up of it.

 

If all the collectors who want a copy of X-Men 4 in 5.0 are paying $450, then $450 is the price. When resellers buy all the copies at $450 and offer them for sale at $600, and they don't sell, prices should fall, and I'd expect them to fall. When prices go back to $450, I haven't "lost" $150, the increase was artificial, so it's where it should've been all along.

[rodan57]

In 30 years, everyone will be a completist.

 

By that time every book in every run will have been declared a key -- and key collectors will therefore collect everything.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Who would have figured 10 years ago that Rocket Racoon's first appearance would blow up?

 

 

People would have laughed and laughed and laughed.

 

Now, unfortunately, you can't say ANY obscure 1st appearance would be a crazy pick, because we now have a precedent.

[1950's war comics]

Condition, condition, condition. Low to mid-grade will stagnate, high-grade will gain. If a collector can afford a $500 low to mid grade book, then he can afford a $1500 high grade book, and he would rather have that. As time goes by and high grade stock disappears, this is where the money and demand will be!

 

Possibly true for the golden age , not so much for most comics after that,.. in the coin hobby ,. the most popular collector grade is "fine"

if you buy a 1500 comic in CGC 8.0 you stand to lose half of your investment if forced to sell and things don't go well , if you buy a 50 dollar comic in CGC 3.5 and sell for half price you have negligible downside risk.

[01TheDude]

good points about the influence of electronic markets etc -- those have changed the landscape on about everything. I can see how the thrill of the hunt is lessened when you can simply order any missing issue (save a GA collector) whenever the mood strikes you. There is some draw to that hunt -- but if it becomes too easy, we might lose some of those type of collectors.

[rjrjr]

 

Who would have figured 10 years ago that Rocket Racoon's first appearance would blow up?

 

 

People would have laughed and laughed and laughed.

 

Now, unfortunately, you can't say ANY obscure 1st appearance would be a crazy pick, because we now have a precedent.

 

I'm still laughing at all the people paying high prices for IH 271. It really is one of the worst comics I have ever read. Clearly the people buying never read the story. And the fact it isn't even the character's first appearance makes it even more funny.

[rjrjr]

good points about the influence of electronic markets etc -- those have changed the landscape on about everything. I can see how the thrill of the hunt is lessened when you can simply order any missing issue (save a GA collector) whenever the mood strikes you. There is some draw to that hunt -- but if it becomes too easy, we might lose some of those type of collectors.

 

There is this. Just about every comic from the SA up is readily available if you have the funds. The Internet has certainly changed this aspect of the hobby forever. Books like Star Wars 107 that were marked in Overstreet as low distribution have certainly turned out to be anything but unavailable.

 

And just about every comic from the SA up can also be purchased in a TPB or hardcover.

 

So, you would think both these conditions would put pressure on prices downwards. IMHO, that pressure *IS* there and it *IS* real, but CGC masks this from many collectors. I believe the price of many, many comics are depressed, exactly for the reasons I stated above (and stated by other postings in this thread.) But, that is clouded by CGC prices.

 

I know when I talk to other collectors about prices, invariably, the high grade CGC prices are what people are referencing when they talk about the value of a comic. But in reality, most comics are not in CGC slabs and are valued at a fractions of what CGC prices bring. If you see a Star Wars #1 sell for $280 CGC 9.6, that is not the real price for a raw Star Wars #1; not even close. You are lucky to get $100 for a raw copy (I've seen raws NM copies sell anywhere from $50 - $80 in the past year, although there have been outliers) but that doesn't stop people from attempting to price their raw copies at $200+. In a way, CGC provides a false sense of value in many comics that just doesn't exist. Collectors are kidding themselves when they see a New Mutants #98 sell for $800 and think that raw copy they have in their collection is worth $800.

 

As for completist, I don't think that aspect of the hobby has changed. I think you have a lot of speculators in the hobby right now propping up the prices for "key" books, and that muddies the real picture. It looks like everyone is a key collector because so many people are in the hobby right now just buying keys. But I wager most of those key collectors will move onto the next hot thing (i.e. not comics) when prices start to stagnate or fall.

[ComicConnoisseur]

good points about the influence of electronic markets etc -- those have changed the landscape on about everything. I can see how the thrill of the hunt is lessened when you can simply order any missing issue (save a GA collector) whenever the mood strikes you. There is some draw to that hunt -- but if it becomes too easy, we might lose some of those type of collectors.

 

There is this. Just about every comic from the SA up is readily available if you have the funds. The Internet has certainly changed this aspect of the hobby forever. Books like Star Wars 107 that were marked in Overstreet as low distribution have certainly turned out to be anything but unavailable.

 

And just about every comic from the SA up can also be purchased in a TPB or hardcover.

 

So, you would think both these conditions would put pressure on prices downwards. IMHO, that pressure *IS* there and it *IS* real, but CGC masks this from many collectors. I believe the price of many, many comics are depressed, exactly for the reasons I stated above (and stated by other postings in this thread.) But, that is clouded by CGC prices.

 

I know when I talk to other collectors about prices, invariably, the high grade CGC prices are what people are referencing when they talk about the value of a comic. But in reality, most comics are not in CGC slabs and are valued at a fractions of what CGC prices bring. If you see a Star Wars #1 sell for $280 CGC 9.6, that is not the real price for a raw Star Wars #1; not even close. You are lucky to get $100 for a raw copy (I've seen raws NM copies sell anywhere from $50 - $80 in the past year, although there have been outliers) but that doesn't stop people from attempting to price their raw copies at $200+. In a way, CGC provides a false sense of value in many comics that just doesn't exist. Collectors are kidding themselves when they see a New Mutants #98 sell for $800 and think that raw copy they have in their collection is worth $800.

 

As for completist, I don't think that aspect of the hobby has changed. I think you have a lot of speculators in the hobby right now propping up the prices for "key" books, and that muddies the real picture. It looks like everyone is a key collector because so many people are in the hobby right now just buying keys. But I wager most of those key collectors will move onto the next hot thing (i.e. not comics) when prices start to stagnate or fall.

Good post!

 

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

 

Who would have figured 10 years ago that Rocket Racoon's first appearance would blow up?

 

 

People would have laughed and laughed and laughed.

 

Now, unfortunately, you can't say ANY obscure 1st appearance would be a crazy pick, because we now have a precedent.

I agree. Look at how the first appearance Squirrel Girl took off.

[That Ron Dude]

This thread is full of fascinating speculation and informative posts.

 

Speaking of Rocket Raccoon in his first appearance. I have to wonder how many worthless copies of Marvel comics a person would have to have, and I mean worthless as art, literature and product, to also own a copy of the first appearance of Rocket Raccoon. Would selling the first appearance of Rocket Racoon at fair market value pay for all the other comics purchased from that era which are now a step away from being landfill?

 

[rjpb]

This thread is full of fascinating speculation and informative posts.

 

Speaking of Rocket Raccoon in his first appearance. I have to wonder how many worthless copies of Marvel comics a person would have to have, and I mean worthless as art, literature and product, to also own a copy of the first appearance of Rocket Raccoon. Would selling the first appearance of Rocket Racoon at fair market value pay for all the other comics purchased from that era which are now a step away from being landfill?

 

Those who do best aren't the ones who bought 30 years ago, but who buy this stuff up at 1 to 10 bucks a pop just ahead of the wave.

 

If you kept them in decent shape, a collection in total of late 70s through early 80s comics is worth more than aggregate cover price, but even averaging in the few more valuable keys, may hardly seem worth the effort of saving for decades and then trying to sell unless you just happened to concentrate on the more valuable runs.

 

If your collecting days were limited to the early 90s, even that NM 98 you managed to hold onto isn't going to cover the money wasted on dreck.

[Doc Joe]

who the heck knows??

 

Hey, Vinyl records are back

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/music-downloads-plummet-in-u-s-but-sales-of-vinyl-records-and-streaming-surge-1420092579

 

 

[FineCollector]

I have to wonder how many worthless copies of Marvel comics a person would have to have, and I mean worthless as art, literature and product, to also own a copy of the first appearance of Rocket Raccoon.

 

Key snob... my favorite kind of know-it-all. You don't read any of the books you own, do you?

 

I bought the first appearance of Rocket Racoon a couple of years ago at a con from the dealer from London, ON. Didn't know it was a (minor) key, I just liked the painted Satana cover, and paid all of $3 for a VG/F copy. Chew on that.

[That Ron Dude]

Way to go fine, in making a wise purchase. I don't mean to seem like a know it all. And I have read each and every book that I own.

[Gracias-migration]

This thread is full of fascinating speculation and informative posts.

 

Speaking of Rocket Raccoon in his first appearance. I have to wonder how many worthless copies of Marvel comics a person would have to have, and I mean worthless as art, literature and product, to also own a copy of the first appearance of Rocket Raccoon.

 

What about the person who had The Hulk on his pull list at the time it came out? Was he supposed to skip just that issue, ruin his run, and screw over his LCS?

[paul747]

This isn't universally true.

 

As always, price matters, as the people who have lost 50% of their money buying bronze 9.8s at the peak will tell you.

 

Sure, a collector might prefer a $1500 high grade book to a mid-grade book, but would he prefer the high grade book at $2500? at $5000? at $20,000?

 

The last few years have shown that buying the absolute highest grade doesn't always give the best results.

 

Condition, condition, condition. Low to mid-grade will stagnate, high-grade will gain. If a collector can afford a $500 low to mid grade book, then he can afford a $1500 high grade book, and he would rather have that. As time goes by and high grade stock disappears, this is where the money and demand will be!

 

That is a very valid point, but that was mostly the fault of several early adopters chasing what they thought were scarce in grade keys. When pressing became the norm it was only natural for more ultra high grade copies to appear making those so called scarce issues less scarce. Just look at how many Hulk 181's now grace the coveted 9.8 spot. More interesting than that however is the massive price spreads those 9.8's have encountered.

 

Still I have always felt that the recent boom in mid grade keys makes them overvalued, so I fully agree with your point. Someone who can afford say a GS X-Men #1 in 9.2 or 9.4 isn't going to want one in 7.0 or even 8.0. After the current boom leaves our hobby those prices will fall. You are much better seeking out eye popping and accurately graded 9.2/9.4 copies instead.

 

I agree ! I also believe that purchasing higher grade Silver and bronze CGC books near OSPG is a good way to insulate your purchases in today's market. Even if overstreet corrects on a particular book it's never horrible. In certain cases (movie books) if the price has recently increased 1000 percent over guide, odds are the book could fall rather easy when the hotness fades. If that same book was purchased before the movie news, nearer to guide prices You will probably be ok. MHO.

[followtheleader]

It's over. Time for people to acknowledge it.

Just like my pathetic Broncos.

 

Patrick

[jools&jim]

 

Will there be a Market for "Completionist" Comic Books in 30 Years?

no