Future Value of CGC comics?

[Sal]

i wish i had slabbed my near-perfect copy of Sandman 1 two years ago and sold it then.

 

p.s. don't let the guys from colossus comics read this thread

[tilleycs]

I agree with you guys. I think a lot of us have learned painful lessons from past speculations. Don't you wish you could get all your money back from all the things you speculated on that went bust?

 

I see all these sites, offering pre orders on comic graded 9.8 or better. Now you can order a years subscription of any current title at a guaranteed grade of 9.8.

 

Just like in the 90's, if tens/hundreds of thousands of people all have the same thing, how rare & valuable is it? Chances are...not very.

 

I know alot of people (not me) CGCing everything that comes out these days looking to cash in big in 20-30 years. My question is are they right, or do you guys think this CGC trend will do alot of harm the the value of these comics in the long run?

 

That's why it's called speculation. No one knows for sure. But like someone said, learning lessons from the past can save you a lot of time, energy, frustration, and money sometimes. By the time you hear about something that's "hot", millions of other people have, too, and many of them before you did.

 

You may miss out on the one or two issues that do well, but you'll also miss out on all the money you would have sunk into all the other issues that didn't. The one or two that do well (if you happened to buy them) will have to do AMAZINGLY well to recoup all your money, and even then, you didn't make any money, you just got back to ground zero.

 

What do you guys think?

 

You collect collectibles; you invest in investments. With few exceptions (the proven issues that people have previously referred to), it's not a good idea to mix & match the two, and most people don't have the means to do it.

 

Buy what (and only what) you like and you'll always be happy (because you bought what you liked, which makes you happy). Sounds simple, doesn't it? It's greed that makes things complicated.

[the blob]

some moderns may be worth slabbing, but you'll probably know which ones they were 6-12 months after they came out, not through a $30 pre-order service.

 

the number of money losers, even if you somehow get the occasional $75-100 book out of the mix, will wipe out all profits.

 

i don't really keep current with moderns.. i only read 1 or 2 titles.

 

but let's say you guessed right with goon #1 (whichever goon series where the #1 is worth something now) and slabbed your 9.8... that one may be worth something in 5-10 years if the series doesn't die. probably worth something now, but maybe that could be a triple digit book at some point.

 

but how many others would you have wasted your money on? particularly when there are plenty of raw 9.4 - 9.8s to stash away that you can have slabbed in 5-10 years if it turns out they're worth something.

 

give yourself a conservative 7% return in the stock market.....

 

that $30 you spend to slab something means you've lost the chance to have $60 in 10 years (a lot more if the market does better than 7%)

 

so you have to think about that too when committing a bunch of money to slab a book

 

when you consider the cost of slabbing, particularly on an expensive book, it doesn't make a lot of sense to slab to put a book in storage for 10-15 years. much more inexpensive mylar and acid free carbon buffered boards protect just as well and are much cheaper. true, you have today's slabbed grade "forever", even if it deteriorates in the slab, whereas you have to hope there's no deterioration outside a slab.

[hobbes]

Buy what (and only what) you like and you'll always be happy (because you bought what you liked, which makes you happy). Sounds simple, doesn't it? It's greed that makes things complicated.

 

Good advice.

[skybolt]

As others have mentioned, buy what you like.

 

Back in the 80's (when I was a teenager), I had a limited budget and only cared about buying the books I enjoyed reading (X-Men, Spider-Man, Avengers, etc). I could care less what the books would be worth 10 or 20 years from that time. However, when I went to college back in the early 90's, I started speculating. All of a sudden I noticed books like Gen 13 and Magnus Robot Fighter guiding at $50, and decided to change my collecting habbit. I stopped collecting X-Men and Avengers (which I loved reading), so I could buy the new Gen 13, Spawn, or Malibu series. I can't tell you how much I hated reading these books. I would force myself to read Ninjak, Ultra Force, Mantra, Sludge, Hardcase, Warriors of Plasm, etc. while day-dreaming about something else. I missed out on a good chunk of the X-Men run (including issue #266) to collect these crappy books. Then I started shelling out $4 for foil or hologram covers because those books were regarded as collectables. Once I had stopped collecting the books I loved to read, and saw the value of my manufacturred collection go down in price, I completely gave up on collecting comic books. It took me another 7 years to get back into the hobby. These days I'm only collecting SA and GA, and a few key BA books. I refuse to buy any new books for reading purposes, unless the nostalgia has worn off a few years later, and someone is offering a full run on eBay at a discount. That way, I can read an entire story arc without waiting months or having the book sold out at my LCS.

 

Even if you're collecting proven GA or SA books, you should still only buy the books you love. For instance, if I see a semi-good deal on an SA Aquaman or Adventure Comics CGC graded book, I still won't buy it since I'm not into collecting those particular titles. To make a long story short, if you buy a book because you love the cover, story, etc., and still not make any money on it a few years later, than at least the book gave you some enjoyment (which is what life is all about).

[Stromm]

Moderns only have short term value, 6-9 months at the most, as for 20 years down the road, IMO there will only be GN's or digest size comics. Then, only if you want the paper versions and not the electronic format. (ring ring, answer your cell and view the next bat or supes comic, don't for get forward it to your PC so you can watch it again later!). I cannot see comics in their present form continuing on as they are, it's just going to be too expensive to produce a 16, 24, or 32 page comic. You'll be paying $7.00 for that $3.00 comic in 20 years. Collectors come and go, and most of the babyboomers who do (re)collect will be gone, with their collections changing hands yet again. Hopefully the publishers and future creators can keep the too few fans intrested in the hobby.

[Norrin_Radd]

But let's say you guessed right with Goon #1 (whichever Goon series where the #1 is worth something now)

 

They are all worth something!

 

 

...and slabbed your 9.8... that one may be worth something in 5-10 years if the series doesn't die. probably worth something now, but maybe that could be a triple digit book at some point.

 

Now you're just trying to hurt my feelings.

 

 

 

 

P.S. - The Goon Rules!

[the blob]

"it's just going to be too expensive to produce a 16, 24, or 32 page comic. You'll be paying $7.00 for that $3.00 comic in 20 years."

 

I have to wonder about the costs.

 

Every day, and certainly every sunday, I get a newspaper full of glossy brochures and pamplets in my newspaper. If they're sending out millions of these, 99% of which will go straight into the trash, how much can they possibly cost?

 

And the catalogues. Full color and glossy. My wife seems to get like 5-10 a day...98% straight into the trash. How much could all of this cost?

 

Free newspapers on every corner here in NYC -- take as many as you want! Does it cost $2 to print the village voice?

 

Printing costs really aren't the issue. It's the comic co's near total disregard for trying to bring in new generations of kids who like comics that will be the problem in 20 years when most of us on this board will be in out mid 40s - mid 60s.

[the blob]

also, kids 12-15 years ago had a lot of the same distractions as today (no internet, but video games, cable tv and cartoons) in the late 80s/early 90s, but they got into comics then. but i can see how they'd get out of comics (or never get in) as cover prices quickly went from $1 to $2.25 - $3.95 while their income/allowances stayed the same.

[skybolt]

also, kids 12-15 years ago had a lot of the same distractions as today (no internet, but video games, cable tv and cartoons) in the late 80s/early 90s, but they got into comics then. but i can see how they'd get out of comics (or never get in) as cover prices quickly went from $1 to $2.25 - $3.95 while their income/allowances stayed the same.

 

Good point. I had many other distractions as a kid, but comic books were always my favorite. If 1/100 kids feels the same way, then there's a hope for the future.

[FFB]

Not taking about the golden, and silver age comics, but more about todays comics.

 

I see all these sites, offering pre orders on comic graded 9.8 or better. Now you can order a years subscription of any current title at a guaranteed grade of 9.8.

 

I know alot of people (not me) CGCing everything that comes out these days looking to cash in big in 20-30 years.

 

My question is are they right, or do you guys think this CGC trend will do alot of harm the the value of these comics in the long run?

 

The Way i see it, this CGC craze will keep these titles at a lower cost, then a higher one. So instead of making the books more expensive, it may actually make them more affordable 25-30 years down the road.

 

What do you guys think?

 

I think that the values of 9.8 non-key moderns will stay pretty close to where they are right now for the foreseeable future. When you buy a slabbed modern for $30, you have to figure that the book has the following costs to the seller included in the price: $3 cover price (in other words, the amount he'd sell it for if it were raw, not his actual wholesale cost of the book), $12 modern slabbing fee ($15 - 20% discount), and shipping to and from CGC (figure a dollar to two dollars per book) -- so the slabbed 9.8 has a "value" of about $16-17, before you consider the cost of the labor involved in pre-grading a stack of books at the seller's shop in order to cull out the 9.8s, as well as an indeterminate number of $3 "reject" pre-screen fees for other books that the seller submitted that didn't make the cut, and the time value of money for the period that the books are at CGC waiting to be graded. If one out of four submitted books don't make the 9.8 cut, the dealer adds another dollar each to his cost for the three slabbed 9.8s out of each four he submits.

 

On a $30 sale, the dealer is making about a $10 profit per book. I think that there is room for the books to drop in "value" all the way down to the dealer's slabbing-associated costs plus cover price of the book (i.e., about $20), but not much below that unless the book is a very low demand book.

 

Unless the book becomes a key issue though, I do not believe that there is much room for significant upside on value.

[FFB]

I would agree. I think only pre 1990's books will attain a higher value, minus keys of course.

 

I dunno if I'd even be that generous. Pre-1979, and even then I say that with reservations....a better bet would be pre-1968.

 

Lots of Copper Age books are worth money in high grade. Miller Daredevils, all ASMs, and others sell well in high grade from 1980-89. Getting a 9.4 from that era is not hard, but 9.8s are no cakewalk.

[Sal]

i would thnk printing prices will come down over time.

 

costs to hire the best talent will of course go up, as will distribution costs.

 

 

i would think cd versions of comics would still be quite a bit away, until there is a plurality of people with high bandwidth connections, or data compression technologies really take off.

 

 

now, if you were a comic book manufacturer, and you could effectively work out a deal with one of the laser printer companies to brand one of their printers, and follow that up with a deal to a paper manufacturer, why then you could sell both and make a mint. a 'home comic printing kit' of sorts, complete with special watermarked papers, comics-only inks, and special software that renders the printer virtually useless - or crippled in its usability to a large extent - for any use other than Marvel© Digital Comics^TM.

 

just a thought...

[shrunkenhead]

I would agree. I think only pre 1990's books will attain a higher value, minus keys of course.

 

I dunno if I'd even be that generous. Pre-1979, and even then I say that with reservations....a better bet would be pre-1968.

 

Says the man you only buys GA.

 

Ok, ya got me there.

 

 

There are important comics in EVERY AGE, including the current one. And some have print runs significantly lower that some BA and even SA books.

 

Very true, BUT how significant is a low print run when everybody's slabbing them right off the press? Not very, IMO.

 

And manufactured "low print run" rarities are doomed to die, I feel. Those folks who've paid upwards of $1500 and more for brand-new "rrp" editions of modern books are going to rue the day. 1500 can get you key books from the 50's in NM (or close to it), for god's sake.

 

Collectors who disdain anything not older than they are can eat my azz!

 

I don't have contempt for new books from a reader's perspective. Just picked up the four "Y" trades and am loving 'em! (Thinking of passing them along to a friend of mine in the english department for use in her gender studies/pop culture class). But from a dollar value point-of-view, it is a lose/lose situation.

 

The only future I forsee for moderns in terms of resale is not HG slabs, but full extensive runs. A full, nice-looking raw run of Batman 400-600 could go for a very nice piece of change, and is far more desirable than having a few books from the run in 9.8, 9.9, 10.0, or whatever. (10.1?!?!)

 

And, I think the future for bronze and late silver is also a little sketchy, especially if folks start regularly pressing out 9.2's to make 'em 9.6s and such. If those census numbers swell, and pressing doesn't count as restoration, there could be a serious dip in the highgrade market for books from the late sixties onward. (early SA and GA will be affected too, but a little bit less, I think, as there are probably fewer candidates for pressing).

 

So there.

[skybolt]

If a key GA book is in exremely poor condition, people would still pay a good chunk of money to own it. However, if a modern book has a few small tears on the front cover, then it's basically worthless.

[shrunkenhead]

If a key GA book is in exremely poor condition, people would still pay a good chunk of money to own it. However, if a modern book has a few small tears on the front cover, then it's basically worthless.

 

Bingo.

[Norrin_Radd]

The only future I forsee for moderns in terms of resale is not HG slabs, but full extensive runs. A full, nice-looking raw run of Batman 400-600 could go for a very nice piece of change, and is far more desirable than having a few books from the run in 9.8, 9.9, 10.0, or whatever. (10.1?!?!)

 

Do let me know if you come across a 10.1.

[awe4one]

Lots of Copper Age books are worth money in high grade. Miller Daredevils, all ASMs, and others sell well in high grade from 1980-89. Getting a 9.4 from that era is not hard, but 9.8s are no cakewalk.

 

I agree for ultra HG...people have been protecting their comics from damage since the widespread use of bags and boards became the norm in the late 70s.

 

But then CGC appeared and suddenly people became ultra sensitive to prevent against the slightest dings and handling flaws. That's why there will be a virtual glut of modern high grades in the future. You'll have a harder time finding Fine copies than NM...

 

Jim

[awe4one]

And, I think the future for bronze and late silver is also a little sketchy, especially if folks start regularly pressing out 9.2's to make 'em 9.6s and such.

 

Prices for Bronze 9.4 issues, aside from the key books, have leveled off and fallen steadedly over the last year and a half. This will only get worse as more ultra HG appear...

 

Jim

[the blob]

things is, most bronze 9.4s, slabbed or not, shouldn't be any higher than OPG NM

 

where anyone got the idea that 9.4s should trade at big multiples of OPG is beyond me

 

and CGC encapsulation is simply not worth the money for the vast majority of bronze age books, even in 9.4, even the sorts of minor keys that guide in the $25-75 range in NM

 

and certainly not worth it for your generic FF or Avengers from 1974, even if in solid 9.4