If the crash comes...

[CongoBill]

What happened to GA and SA keys, even non-keys for that matter, during the 90's crash?

Curious, as I did not collect those ages back then.

 

They went down, too. The only thing that went up during the general malaise of the late 90's/early 2000's was ultra rare, ultra high grade, or both.

 

If they went down (and that is not my recollection, btw) they did not go down by much. I don't recall Fantastic Four #1 or Amazing Fantasy #15 (or any high-grade, key, prime Gold or Silver books) being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value.

[Lazyboy]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see haven't yet seen prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

Fixed.

[CongoBill]

Do not misunderstand:

 

While there are several major causes for the 90's crash, the single greatest contributor was the massive speculator mentality that infected the entire industry from the top down.

 

Publishers were printing books far in excess of what the market could actually absorb, without bothering to question who was actually buying them, and why.

 

Distributors were busy fighting for market share, trying to put each other out of business, and had no time to question the print orders they were giving the publishers.

 

Retailers were selling cases of books to people without bothering to ask them if they thought it was a good idea, and they were buying their own cases to hopefully sell at huge profits themselves.

 

Speculators were buying those cases to "put away" so they could "send their kids to college."

 

And no one, anywhere, at least that I can find in any of the literature, and certainly not in my own experience, stopped to ask "um...who's going to buy all these books at higher prices, if everyone's sitting on cases of it...?"

 

It was "you better get yours while you can, or you will miss out."

 

Until it wasn't, and the whole house of cards collapsed.

 

Loot Crate is being a then. They have been the ones that have created these large print runs recently for moderns. But even then, it's still not coming close to what publishers were doing in the 90's. I don't believe anyone is putting cases of Batman New 52 books away when the print run is 115K. Even on hot books with multiple variants, print runs are still way, waaaaaay down from the '90's era.

 

Just my , but I'm sure one of you guys is gonna take my money.

 

Yes, but you have to realize readership is also way, way down too in comparison to the number of books sold. Speculation is back in a big way. Everyone wants to believe "this time it will be different." Sure, it will be different, but in the end, there will be a correction.

 

What is the most followed threads on these boards? Threads about speculation. Which books sell out at the comic shops on day 1? Books that are speculated on. This is not healthy for the market in the long run. It turns off readers who want the books to read. Fun for speculators does not equal fun for readers.

 

what percentage of the nineties print runs where speculation driven? There are a ton of readers in this new market. If there was a way to tell i would bet the nineties print runs where 50-60 percent driven by speculation(?) and today's new market (last year or 2) is about 20 percent speculator/quick flipper(?). Yes the print runs are tiny compared to the monster number of the past but...... most of the heavy, buy by the case speculators are gone. If you put a list together from 2000 till now of just killer comics with great stories it would trump the nineties quality comics !

 

Digital comics have skewed the numbers. There is a massive amount of readership that all the print run numbers don't reflect. The movies blowing up and popularity of MCU and new T.V shows are all results of comic fans. Just not entirely physical comics.

 

Thank you. People here talking about low/stagnant print runs aren't accounting for digital sales. Of course nobody (outside of the industry) seems to really know how many digital sales the various publishers are getting, but Comixology seems a pretty healthy company so I have to think it's not insignificant. While I am not under any illusions there are hundreds of thousands of digital readers for any title, I think it's not out of the realm of possibility to add another 10,000 digital sales on top of the print runs for the best selling titles. And maybe that is conservative? I don't know. The point being that digital sales are READERS as I don't think there is a market for flipping "NM" digital comics. :-)

[rjrjr]

 

Digital comics have skewed the numbers. There is a massive amount of readership that all the print run numbers don't reflect. The movies blowing up and popularity of MCU and new T.V shows are all results of comic fans. Just not entirely physical comics.

 

Thank you. People here talking about low/stagnant print runs aren't accounting for digital sales. Of course nobody (outside of the industry) seems to really know how many digital sales the various publishers are getting, but Comixology seems a pretty healthy company so I have to think it's not insignificant. While I am not under any illusions there are hundreds of thousands of digital readers for any title, I think it's not out of the realm of possibility to add another 10,000 digital sales on top of the print runs for the best selling titles. And maybe that is conservative? I don't know. The point being that digital sales are READERS as I don't think there is a market for flipping "NM" digital comics. :-)

 

Digital sales are roughly 15% of print. That was the last number I remember seeing.

[CongoBill]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see haven't yet seen prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

Fixed.

 

 

Won't happen until the zombie apocalypse is upon us and society crashes.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

A chunk of that lack-of-growth can be attributed to the rapid price escalation of the past decade, and the ridiculous escalation compared to the whole of the past 20 years. Remember, it wasn't long ago that these books were $1-$1.25. Now, anything from the big-2 is 3.99. Incomes haven't increased at the same rate & this is a commodities inflation that we've seen in other industries as well. Something has to give. You can buy 1 comic today for the price of 4 in 1992-ish.

 

Dollar for dollar, the worst increases in price came in the early 90's, followed by the mid to late 70's.

 

In 1990, there were still 75 cent books on the stands. By 1995, that price was now $1.95, an astonishing 160% increase in cover price in only 5 years.

 

That rivals the period from 1976 to 1981, in which comics went from 25 cents to 60 cents, which was a 140% increase by comparison.

 

Compared to that, the price increase from $1.95 to $3.99 from 1995 to 2015 is a mere 104% increase.

 

There hasn't been any much price escalation, rapid or otherwise, in the past decade.

 

The price increases of the early 90's were on purpose, directed by Perelman of Marvel, and DC had no choice but to follow suit (not that they were complaining.)

 

Comics are also competing more against the video game industry & other gaming industries for entertainment dollars than they had to 20 years ago. For instance, video games have only essentially doubled in price (maybe tripled, depending on the game) in that same period. You could buy 30 comics for the price of a video game in 1992. You can only buy 15 comics for the price of 1 video game in 2015, and only 7.5 modern comics for the price of 1 video game in 1992 while the median household income has only increased by about 75% in that same period.

 

The "comics competing against video games" argument has been around for 35 years, and I'm not sure if I buy it anymore, if I ever did.

 

I think the REAL stealer of interest is social media, which has taken much available time away from other pursuits.

 

I know what you're saying, but I believe you're saying it wrong. I also only partially agree.

 

Dollar for dollar, the worst increase was the 1.99-3.99 from 2000-ish until early 2010's.

 

Actually, dollar for dollar has to do with value vs. cost. Such as "$100 worth of Tide is better than $100 worth of Gain, even if the volume of Tide is less." But anyhoo....

 

Percentage wise, the worst increase was that 5-year increase in the early 90's. But it's easy to get larger price increases with lower percentages. $100- $150 is only a 50% increase, but $1-$2 is a whole 100% increase. Which is a harder hit on your wallet? The higher the starting price, the less the % must increase to have the same or greater impact on your wallet.

 

That assumes you're only buying a single unit. Who only buys a single unit, even of a single title? That extra dollar doesn't really mean anything compared to that $50.

 

The $2 increase was a harder hit then the $1.25 increase. Simple as that. It's just easier to quantify it with percentages to compare.

 

That's not really quite accurate. That would only be true if the purchasing power of that $1.25 remained constant over the years, and that's not the case. Inflation takes a bite out of the purchasing power of a dollar, so that $1.25 increase by 1995 isn't necessarily less than that $2 increase by 2015.

 

And, again, that would only apply if you bought a single unit, and that's not how people consume. That's why the only meaningful numbers for comparison are percentages.

 

Not quite as simple as that....

 

 

And games definitely impact it. Games have provided MORE content as they've gotten more expensive, while comics have provided less content as they've gotten more expensive. Page counts are lower while game-play is longer. (Quality wise, they've been about on par with each other if you can try to generally quantify the comparison between graphics/game-play to story/art. Essentially, they've both gotten better over that time.)

 

There's also the immersive-ness & add-on content to video-games today that didn't exist back then. You couldn't play an endless game of Mario the way you can Call of Duty. That steals time/energy/money away from other forms of entertainment.

 

All of that is well argued, but...that requires a person to actually BE a gamer. While I enjoyed many games growing up and over the years (Mortal Kombat, the Might & Magic series, etc.), I haven't spent any significant amount of time on a game since the very early 2000's.

 

So, while it might be true for the subset of comic book buyers who are also gamers, it's not true for those who don't game. I understand the point, that gaming draws readers overall, but it's not necessarily true that those drawn to comics would also be drawn to games.

 

Yes, social media impacts it, but I don't think it's THAT much. It's more of a replacement for actually hanging out with friends & BS-ing that it's impacted by it, IMO.

 

I'd say social media has had far, far more impact on the activities of others than the improvement of gaming. Social media is much, much more ubiquitous.

 

Now, I'd need to do some research, but I don't think those other periods also had the same kind of rapid escalation in other commodities & essential goods/services that we've seen in the past decade across the board.

 

They did not in the early 90's. That was a design by Marvel's CEO, Ron Perelman, and had no justification in cost increases.

 

Some of them, sure... like the oil crisis in the late 70's but that dropped back down or the issues with farms in the 80's and that also calmed down after a few years as well but not all at once the way we've had recently. Those all impact disposable income as a percentage of total income, and affect how much kids or the regular collector has to play with.

 

Pair ALL that with together & it's a recipe for a smaller collector base. That's all I'm saying. There's a lot of economic factors at play here. I'm also not saying that there's no bubble involved to a degree, but I don't think it's big & I don't think it's going to be painful if/when it burst, and I also think that it can be easily averted. The only thing that might sink might be the modern variants at a faster rate than they tank now on the secondary market.

 

The prices that vintage material is bringing cannot be sustained. The value of BA #12 has gone up ten to fifty times in the last five years.

 

The value of FF #45 has multiplied by a factor of 10 in many grades, too.

 

The only market that doesn't seem to be affected by this exuberance is the GA, and that's not even entirely true there, either.

 

There are countless examples, of books spanning 50 years, of irrational exuberance and price leaps.

 

Who are these people, why are they spending this money, and what happens when they leave?

[rjrjr]

 

Digital comics have skewed the numbers. There is a massive amount of readership that all the print run numbers don't reflect. The movies blowing up and popularity of MCU and new T.V shows are all results of comic fans. Just not entirely physical comics.

 

Thank you. People here talking about low/stagnant print runs aren't accounting for digital sales. Of course nobody (outside of the industry) seems to really know how many digital sales the various publishers are getting, but Comixology seems a pretty healthy company so I have to think it's not insignificant. While I am not under any illusions there are hundreds of thousands of digital readers for any title, I think it's not out of the realm of possibility to add another 10,000 digital sales on top of the print runs for the best selling titles. And maybe that is conservative? I don't know. The point being that digital sales are READERS as I don't think there is a market for flipping "NM" digital comics. :-)

 

Digital sales are roughly 15% of print. That was the last number I remember seeing.

 

Okay, here are some numbers to back this up. The numbers are from http://www.comichron.com/yearlycomicssales.html:

 

Print + Digital Digital Percentage

2011 $715 million $25 million 3.50%

2012 $805 million $70 million 8.70%

2013 $870 million $90 million 10.34%

 

So, 15% might be on the high side.

 

[Aweandlorder]

Comics are also competing more against the video game industry & other gaming industries for entertainment dollars than they had to 20 years ago. For instance, video games have only essentially doubled in price (maybe tripled, depending on the game) in that same period. You could buy 30 comics for the price of a video game in 1992. You can only buy 15 comics for the price of 1 video game in 2015, and only 7.5 modern comics for the price of 1 video game in 1992 while the median household income has only increased by about 75% in that same period.

 

The "comics competing against video games" argument has been around for 35 years, and I'm not sure if I buy it anymore, if I ever did.

 

I think the REAL stealer of interest is social media, which has taken much available time away from other pursuits.

 

How does Porn fit into that time schedule

[rjrjr]

Comics are also competing more against the video game industry & other gaming industries for entertainment dollars than they had to 20 years ago. For instance, video games have only essentially doubled in price (maybe tripled, depending on the game) in that same period. You could buy 30 comics for the price of a video game in 1992. You can only buy 15 comics for the price of 1 video game in 2015, and only 7.5 modern comics for the price of 1 video game in 1992 while the median household income has only increased by about 75% in that same period.

 

The "comics competing against video games" argument has been around for 35 years, and I'm not sure if I buy it anymore, if I ever did.

 

I think the REAL stealer of interest is social media, which has taken much available time away from other pursuits.

 

How does Porn fit into that time schedule

 

Do you have something to confess?

 

[Aweandlorder]

Comics are also competing more against the video game industry & other gaming industries for entertainment dollars than they had to 20 years ago. For instance, video games have only essentially doubled in price (maybe tripled, depending on the game) in that same period. You could buy 30 comics for the price of a video game in 1992. You can only buy 15 comics for the price of 1 video game in 2015, and only 7.5 modern comics for the price of 1 video game in 1992 while the median household income has only increased by about 75% in that same period.

 

The "comics competing against video games" argument has been around for 35 years, and I'm not sure if I buy it anymore, if I ever did.

 

I think the REAL stealer of interest is social media, which has taken much available time away from other pursuits.

 

How does Porn fit into that time schedule

 

Do you have something to confess?

 

 

I prefer reading an RMA thread to viewing censored Jap porn any day..

NOT SUGGESTING ANYTHING HERE

[RockMyAmadeus]

What happened to GA and SA keys, even non-keys for that matter, during the 90's crash?

Curious, as I did not collect those ages back then.

 

They went down, too. The only thing that went up during the general malaise of the late 90's/early 2000's was ultra rare, ultra high grade, or both.

 

If they went down (and that is not my recollection, btw) they did not go down by much. I don't recall Fantastic Four #1 or Amazing Fantasy #15 (or any high-grade, key, prime Gold or Silver books) being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value.

 

That's because they weren't, and I didn't say anything like that. "They went down" isn't the same thing as "being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value."

 

However....what does that mean, "being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value? Do you mean relative to Overstreet? If so, then yes, eBay was the keys to the kingdom. You could buy many, many books, except the ultra rare, or ultra high grade, on eBay for less than they would have cost you in 1993-1995. And that includes all the SA keys, and even substantial portions of GA.

 

If you're not familiar with the great malaise of the late 90's, check out what Overstreet did to almost every book below NM between the 1997 and 1998 OPGs.

 

Let's look at Fantasy #15. We can all agree that that book has been, at least since the 80's, the #1 SA key of all, correct? Great. The good thing is, we don't have to rely on recollection....we can look at the data itself.

 

So, in 2002, there was a sale on Aug 24 of a CGC 6.0 Universal copy for $4,049. I'm assuming it was on eBay, as Heritage doesn't have a record. It's a fair assumption.

 

However....the 1997 OPG lists Fine for $5200.

 

That means, five years AFTER the 1997 OPG, a slabbed copy in 6.0 sold for 22% less than that 1997 OPG value.

 

The biggest, most key book of the SA, right in mid-grade, a solid collectible copy....22% less than the 1997 OPG "value".

 

Then...if we look at the 2001 OPG, we see that the value for a Fine AF #15 is now a shocking $3500...an amazing 33% drop in value. The 2002 OPG, under which this book would have fallen, was $3600.

 

Then, as now, CGC slabs sold for more than raw books, for obvious reasons.

 

So, if you had purchased that book at "guide" in 1997 (and the odds are, you would have), you may not have gotten what would be a 6.0, and restoration free...but you certainly would have paid more for it than if you bought an actual restoration free 6.0 on eBay 5 years later.

 

Yes, little was immune from the late 90's/early 00's.

 

There are tens of thousands of examples, just like this.

 

The value of everything went down. Half? No, not for "the key" stuff. But 20% or more, even on the most key of books? Oh yes. Absolutely.

 

It happened.

[natevegas]

I think we can all agree IH 181 is too high. I don't have one and wants one but not paying 1400-1600 for a 8.0 copy.

[rjrjr]

What happened to GA and SA keys, even non-keys for that matter, during the 90's crash?

Curious, as I did not collect those ages back then.

 

They went down, too. The only thing that went up during the general malaise of the late 90's/early 2000's was ultra rare, ultra high grade, or both.

 

If they went down (and that is not my recollection, btw) they did not go down by much. I don't recall Fantastic Four #1 or Amazing Fantasy #15 (or any high-grade, key, prime Gold or Silver books) being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value.

 

That's because they weren't, and I didn't say anything like that. "They went down" isn't the same thing as "being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value."

 

However....what does that mean, "being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value? Do you mean relative to Overstreet? If so, then yes, eBay was the keys to the kingdom. You could buy many, many books, except the ultra rare, or ultra high grade, on eBay for less than they would have cost you in 1993-1995. And that includes all the SA keys, and even substantial portions of GA.

 

If you're not familiar with the great malaise of the late 90's, check out what Overstreet did to almost every book below NM between the 1997 and 1998 OPGs.

 

Let's look at Fantasy #15. We can all agree that that book has been, at least since the 80's, the #1 SA key of all, correct? Great. The good thing is, we don't have to rely on recollection....we can look at the data itself.

 

So, in 2002, there was a sale on Aug 24 of a CGC 6.0 Universal copy for $4,049. I'm assuming it was on eBay, as Heritage doesn't have a record. It's a fair assumption.

 

However....the 1997 OPG lists Fine for $5200.

 

That means, five years AFTER the 1997 OPG, a slabbed copy in 6.0 sold for 22% less than that 1997 OPG value.

 

The biggest, most key book of the SA, right in mid-grade, a solid collectible copy....22% less than the 1997 OPG "value".

 

Then...if we look at the 2001 OPG, we see that the value for a Fine AF #15 is now a shocking $3500...an amazing 33% drop in value. The 2002 OPG, under which this book would have fallen, was $3600.

 

Then, as now, CGC slabs sold for more than raw books, for obvious reasons.

 

So, if you had purchased that book at "guide" in 1997 (and the odds are, you would have), you may not have gotten what would be a 6.0, and restoration free...but you certainly would have paid more for it than if you bought an actual restoration free 6.0 on eBay 5 years later.

 

Yes, little was immune from the late 90's/early 00's.

 

There are tens of thousands of examples, just like this.

 

The value of everything went down. Half? No, not for "the key" stuff. But 20% or more, even on the most key of books? Oh yes. Absolutely.

 

It happened.

 

But RMA, that is not possible. These books ALWAYS go up in value!

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

The previous November people stockpiled Superman 75. And it still went to $30.

 

Nobody stockpiled Superman #75. There wasn't enough to be had. hat's why it went to $100, not just $30.

 

There was zero incentive to sit on these books within a day of them showing up from the distributors.

 

Superman #75 was probably the most widely distributed comic book in the fastest amount of time in comics history.

 

As well, the previous "hit" from Superman was #50, two years earlier, which had fallen down by that time.

 

Depends on what you mean by "stockpile"; I know people that pre-ordered a bunch of those when it was released. Not cases worth, perhaps.

 

Pre-ordering books is not "stockpiling" them.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Do not misunderstand:

 

While there are several major causes for the 90's crash, the single greatest contributor was the massive speculator mentality that infected the entire industry from the top down.

 

Publishers were printing books far in excess of what the market could actually absorb, without bothering to question who was actually buying them, and why.

 

Distributors were busy fighting for market share, trying to put each other out of business, and had no time to question the print orders they were giving the publishers.

 

Retailers were selling cases of books to people without bothering to ask them if they thought it was a good idea, and they were buying their own cases to hopefully sell at huge profits themselves.

 

Speculators were buying those cases to "put away" so they could "send their kids to college."

 

And no one, anywhere, at least that I can find in any of the literature, and certainly not in my own experience, stopped to ask "um...who's going to buy all these books at higher prices, if everyone's sitting on cases of it...?"

 

It was "you better get yours while you can, or you will miss out."

 

Until it wasn't, and the whole house of cards collapsed.

 

Loot Crate is being a then. They have been the ones that have created these large print runs recently for moderns. But even then, it's still not coming close to what publishers were doing in the 90's. I don't believe anyone is putting cases of Batman New 52 books away when the print run is 115K. Even on hot books with multiple variants, print runs are still way, waaaaaay down from the '90's era.

 

Just my , but I'm sure one of you guys is gonna take my money.

 

Yes, but you have to realize readership is also way, way down too in comparison to the number of books sold. Speculation is back in a big way. Everyone wants to believe "this time it will be different." Sure, it will be different, but in the end, there will be a correction.

 

What is the most followed threads on these boards? Threads about speculation. Which books sell out at the comic shops on day 1? Books that are speculated on. This is not healthy for the market in the long run. It turns off readers who want the books to read. Fun for speculators does not equal fun for readers.

 

what percentage of the nineties print runs where speculation driven? There are a ton of readers in this new market. If there was a way to tell i would bet the nineties print runs where 50-60 percent driven by speculation(?) and today's new market (last year or 2) is about 20 percent speculator/quick flipper(?). Yes the print runs are tiny compared to the monster number of the past but...... most of the heavy, buy by the case speculators are gone. If you put a list together from 2000 till now of just killer comics with great stories it would trump the nineties quality comics !

 

Digital comics have skewed the numbers. There is a massive amount of readership that all the print run numbers don't reflect. The movies blowing up and popularity of MCU and new T.V shows are all results of comic fans. Just not entirely physical comics.

 

Yes, but....do digital comics readers pick up hard copies?

 

Do they have interest in back material?

 

Or, do they just remain digitally formatted?

 

If the digital folks aren't crossing over, then they're not participating in this market, so, as far as the market for hard copies is concerned, the digital readers may not have much of an impact, if any at all. And if that's the case...then they aren't part of the current onrush.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

But RMA, that is not possible. These books ALWAYS go up in value!

Who was it that said Amazing Fantasy #15 has NEVER gone down in value..?

 

 

I think it was Mark1.

 

I told him that he was wrong, that even Fantasy #15 had gone down at least twice in its history...the early 80's and the late 90's/early 00's.

 

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

 

In doing research for my Fantasy #15 6.0 example, I discovered that a single copy has sold in 2013, 2014, and 2015....the first for $17,925, the second for $25,000, and the last for $32,166.

 

Those are incredible numbers. Just incredible.

 

That's approaching the cost of the White Mountain copy that sold in 1993 for $39k.

 

A 6.0, random copy. $32,166.

 

And it's true up and down the line.

 

This can't be sustained.

[Lazyboy]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see haven't yet seen prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

Fixed.

 

 

Won't happen until the zombie apocalypse is upon us and society crashes.

It may require death, but it won't require those longtime collectors to return to some semblance of life.

[RockMyAmadeus]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

 

Prices "plunged" for ECs throughout the 80's. Prices plunged for Duck books throughout the 80's. There are all sorts of books that have taken 30 years to recover what they were worth during their heydays.

 

How are prices for Whiz comics these days?

 

Even Marvel Comics #1, which went toe to toe with Tec #27 and Action #1 for much of their history, hasn't been able to keep the pace, and has been lapped by other, "less key" books, like All American #16.

 

Not nearly as volatile, sure. But that represents a tiny, tiny portion of the hobby. Lots of money, no doubt. But piece for piece, a tiny part of the hobby.

[Rip]

 

The previous November people stockpiled Superman 75. And it still went to $30.

 

Nobody stockpiled Superman #75. There wasn't enough to be had. hat's why it went to $100, not just $30.

 

There was zero incentive to sit on these books within a day of them showing up from the distributors.

 

Superman #75 was probably the most widely distributed comic book in the fastest amount of time in comics history.

 

As well, the previous "hit" from Superman was #50, two years earlier, which had fallen down by that time.

 

 

Where were you?

 

In Philly, it went to $30-$40, but never $100, except for the Platinum version.

 

 

$30 was the average in our area also. $100-125 was the platinum. I also remember getting on waiting lists at local grocery stores to get the newsstand copies. It was crazy. Seemed like everyone had at least 5 copies.

[Rip]

Prices plunged on lots of Golden Age books. I can still remember how quickly prices dropped. It started in late December of 1993. I still remember talking on the phone to different dealers on Christmas Eve.

 

At the time the guide was horribly off, and couldn't keep up, just like now.

The best way to get true values was at conventions or even better was telephone auctions where you would often be a bidder just so you could keep up with the latest prices. Plus PCE (Pacific Comic Exchange) sales were a good way to see what things really sold for.

 

Anyway Gerber no shows, Gerber 8's-9 and hot cover books were really big. The prices on many of those books dropped fast. You could still flip books from uneducated sellers, but it was harder because many of the "way above guide books" quickly settled down. Early Actions and Detectives were still always safe bets. Some Adams bronze were still solid.

 

The modern books were hit the hardest, Valiant, Death of Superman books, Image, and X-Men. I still remember talking on the phone with that guy who used to pay high prices for Valiants in the CBG. (Forgot his name) Anyway, when he stopped buying, it created a panic that quickly escalated.