Growing gap between AF#15 and FF#1

[Vger7]

Spiderman is greater than Fantastic Four and Thor and just about every other comic character (save Batman and Superman - but easily all of Marvel) because he is a kid. Kids love the idea of a super-hero by night, high-school student by day character they can relate to. Even as PP grows up, he does so with those same kids that loved him.

 

This was true in the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's and 10's.

 

I don't why it is so hard to believe why he is more popular than the other characters, it is because kids love him and those kids grow up and have money to buy crud like AF 15s.

 

:shrug:

 

Side note - comparing one book to another to simply state one or the other is over/under valued is a hasty generalization. The characters themselves, their overall appeal, pop-culture timing, the amount of ongoing exposure, historical relevance and the availability of their key issues (# of books in various grades) all contribute to the value of those key issues.

 

FF 1 could be literally worth half of what is it now in 20 years depending on what happens with the characters over that time (it could be worth double as well). This has been proven time and time again - not everything that is currently popular will always be popular, what isn't popular may or may not be popular in the future and no one knows what will be the new popular thing.

 

Definitely. There's no disagreement over Spidey's popularity and the reasons behind it. But now that we've all grown up, assuming that most SA key collectors up there in age like myself, we can appreciate important key books. Which is why "first appearance" is more valued then the quality of the story or art or 1st issue. So if the importance of a book as defined by a "first appearance" is where the value lies, then I would think that FF#1 should at least be in the ball park of AF#15.

 

Secondly, FF#1 was no slouch. It was Marvel's response to the JLA and was hugely popular in itself, out selling JLA and breaking sales records at the time. It's popularity is what led to the development of the Marvel Universe. Perhaps you could argue that the appeal of the FF has waned over the years but we are talking about one specific book... numero uno.

 

Like I said, these are all great books which is why I'm confused as to the disparity between AF#15 + Hulk#1 and the rest. As well, if you could afford an AF#15 and a Hulk#1, I'm sure you could afford and would want other key books, so I don't think it's a lack of demand. I love my AF#15 but I still own an X#1, FF#1... JIM#83.

[CBT]

I'm blown away by how fast and how far AF#15's and Hulk#1's have climbed since coming out of the housing crash 2008/2009, especially at the low to mid grade range. However, FF#1's, JIM#83's, Av#1's and TOS#39's haven't really kept pace and TTA#27's and DD#1's are just starting to pop thanks to their upcoming movie/TV shows.

 

I know that Spidey is a popular character and there is huge demand for AF#15's. We can also compare census data and debate various theory's... but bottom line: Does this mean AF#15's and Hulk#1's are overvalued? Or, does this mean that the rest are undervalued and we should be loading up on FF#1's? I typically buy in the 4.0 to 5.0 range... The gap is so wide, it's difficult to imagine AF#15's ever crashing to an equivalent FF#1 level in another economic down turn...

 

Yes, they are overvalued. It has pulled other books up, you mention TTA #27 and DD#1, which are both good examples. The relative values start to make them very attractive, and the movie/tv hype gets people's attention focused there and they start buying.

 

The speculative money that is sloshing around is always looking for a place to go. The chase for the next Walking Dead pushed a lot of moderns sky high, especially in the 11-13 years. In 13-15 a lot of the spec money has started to flee moderns and look for "safe" and "key" books. AF15 is the poor man's DC #27/ AC #1 so it tends to suck up a lot of that money. IH #1 is such a low availability book, that when it started to spike the demand vastly out paced the supply and helped push it high.

 

The books you mention that have trailed are all books that are past the "hype" cycle, and dont have a reason to draw attention to themselves. Last year I set my goal as acquiring FF#1 and AV #1 as I targeted them as the most undervalued/overlooked of the silver age keys (relative to the rest). I managed to get an AV#1 but couldnt sort it out on FF#1(did get DD#1 though ). Since FF#1 has always been a strong expensive book, it's not any easy one to get into. I dont think FF#1 is undervalued, but its "fairly" valued which makes it "cheaper" relative to overvalued books like AF#15 and IH#1.

 

IH #181 is the Bronze Age equivalent of AF #15 and IH #1, and overvalued imo as well. While the X-Men BA keys would be the most undervalued imo. This year I have made it my goal to try and complete all the BA keys I see as overlooked/undervalued. I already have the X-books covered from years ago, so I have other ones in mind for this year. There are some SA minor keys I already own, which I also think are undervalued significantly, so I wouldnt mind getting some over-copies of those as well.

[rjpb]

Like I said, these are all great books which is why I'm confused as to the disparity between AF#15 + Hulk#1 and the rest. As well, if you could afford an AF#15 and a Hulk#1, I'm sure you could afford and would want other key books, so I don't think it's a lack of demand. I love my AF#15 but I still own an X#1, FF#1... JIM#83.

 

If the only people interested in an AF #15 were Marvel key collectors, then the prices would probably reflect relative scarcity as much as anything else, although even among SA Marvel fans there will always be a hierarchy of interest. When I was a kid in the early 70s, I sought FF #1, AF #15, JIM #83, IH #1, but really had no interest in ToS #39.

 

But with AF #15 in particular, you have generations of Spidey fans who may have little interest in collecting originals from the SA in general, or even reading them in some cases, but deeply covet the book that started it all. Add to that fairly deep pocketed collectors who chase a copy, just because it's a key your supposed to own if you are to be considered a "serious" collector, and value gap is unlikely to close any time soon.

 

There is something a little bizarre about the larger pop culture effects on the demand for certain books though. It frequently seems more speculative or at least pavlovian reaction than driven by traditional collector interest, as if casual fans and movie goers are suddenly going to start paying thousands for first comic book appearances based on character exposure. Suddenly, those who will pay more than a few bucks for a comic decide they need Dr. Strange's first appearance because the rest of the world may see him in a movie in a couple years, even though they previously thought of him as a C-lister whose first appearance was barely notable.

[oakman29]

F.F.#1 will always be the flagship book for collectors like you and I. For the general public Spidey and Batman are kings. I really don't think these iconic keys are ever hampered by a movie succeeding or failing though,some opinions may differ. What I don't get is calling a character a B orC list character?The likes ofThor and Iron Man has always been A list to me,and have been a fan since I can remember. That's why I always had to seek out my favorites 1st appearances first,and after Spidey( of course) Hulk,Thor,SilverSurfer,Green Lantern,and Iron Man were my top choices to get. I have to realize that I will probably never get my hands on a Tec 27,as Batman is right up there as far as influencing my comic book life.

[loadstone]

Warning, long post. but in short:

 

This:

I don't think a AF 15 will just keep climbing at it's current rate....It is starting to get out of the reach of most collectors. That is never good in collecting circles.

 

and this:

If the only people interested in an AF #15 were Marvel key collectors, then the prices would probably reflect relative scarcity as much as anything else...It frequently seems more speculative or at least pavlovian reaction than driven by traditional collector interest, as if casual fans and movie goers are suddenly going to start paying thousands for first comic book appearances based on character exposure.

 

and finally This: FF1 prices = AF15 prices - (investors/speculators + fearful collectors)

 

FF1 might be a decent bargain compared to AF 15 but it's possible time has passed the FF market by. The obvious conclusion is the demand is not there or the supply currently outstrips the demand. But I guess this AF15 vs FF1 debate evokes the question: why is demand so low for FF1 compared to AF15? OR Why isn't there higher demand for FF1?

 

The simple assumption is Spidey is more mainstream and identifiable to fans. The bad FF movies and marvel canceling the title didn't help either. The only thing I see reviving FF demand would be a better FF movie or show coming out that blows away all the Avengers and Spider-man movies (doubtful). But even so, why are AF15's taking off so much when they are not rare. I'm guessing it's psychological whether it be that more people can personally identify with an awkward but likeable Peter Parker/Spider-man character than a team of 4 cosmically enhanced adults or it could be that perceived demand based on past realized returns for AF15 has led to more investors, dealers, speculators scooping up those copies instead of FF1. I suspect it's a good mixture of the 2 with a healthy dose of the latter.

 

There seems to be a lot of price collusion (or inflexibility) going on. AF15's of any grade seem to be slabbed and listed for higher and higher prices which leads me to believe that it's mostly investors, dealers, speculators, and some fearful collectors (fearful that prices will soon exceed their range) buying and selling AF15's and the reason being that there was obviously enough demand to leave room to flip at the prices over the last 10-15 years with the Spider-man movies being fairly popular and constant despite varying opinions from some fans. His possible appearance in Cap 3 won't help deflate prices.

 

A look at Heritage's Market place make-an offer listings will reveal a recent uptick in most of the minimum offer prices for available AF 15's. Many were updated fairly recently almost all at the same time. You can see nearly all of the highest listed offers (not from 2015) being now a good $3-5k less than the current minimum offer. Meaning the owners have been tracking GPA or recent sales and decided to raise the minimum acceptable offer range. It's to the point where the minimum offer is above GPA even for older sales. Another result from the rising prices for Universal copies is an increase in the acceptance, demand and prices for Restored and Qualified label copies as those have become the more affordable copies.

 

What Ghost Rider brought up earlier in the thread about the price for an AF 15 of any grade exceeding what the majority of the collector market is able to afford struck me. 4 years ago you could buy a 3.0 copy for an easily affordable $5k or a 5.0 copy for $12k (avg). Now a 3.0 copy goes for $11k and a 5.0 copy sold for $18k but folks are listing them for more and more each time on BINs. 1.5 or incomplete copies are going for $4-5k and some collectors would be happy just to own those and I've started seeing more of those in the market.

Even for those trying to upgrade, selling a lower copy may net you a decent return but the gap between the lower grade copies and the higher grade copies have significantly widened. If there is friction in these prices, even collectors wanting to sell their undercopies for an upgrade may be unable to do so if the cost to upgrade is too expensive and thus keeps those copies locked up for a bit. Almost parallels some housing market conditions where buyers would like to sell their more affordable townhome/condo and move into a single family home but regardless of the equity in the townhome/condo, the single family home prices have outpaced the market and folks can't buy or sell. So what happens in those cases is some folks will rent out the townhome/condo (tying up a home that a new homeowner could have bought) and mortgage themselves to the hilt on a single family home which is a bit risky. You can't really do that with comics can you? Will anyone be willing to rent out/loan out a low grade AF15 for a monthly fee + insurance over a 2-5year period? I can possibly see that being done for a rent to own type deal (long term time payments). I suppose it's possible.

 

I suspect if the AF 15 market is overloaded with investors/speculators, once prices exceed the market collector's max price at any grade, there will probably be a decline. That or if a bunch of spidey collectors decide to sell off their copies for retirement all at once. I'm sure there's still some meat left on the bone for AF15's as there are plenty of collectors willing to pay $10-20k for low grade and wealthy collectors that will pay the $20-100k for a higher grade copy but will AF 15 ever reach the level of an AC1? I'd put a ceiling on it simply for the fact that there are way more AF 15's than AC1s but I wouldn't be surprised. Unless some renewed interest sparks a FF1 surge, it will remain at rational prices. Which leads me to conclude that FF1 prices are a good measure of where AF 15 prices would/should/could be without the added price inflation from all the investor/speculator/dealer run up. FF1 prices may represent the true collector/fan market and offer a hint of where AF 15 prices may fall should a decline occur.

 

 

[rjpb]

F.F.#1 will always be the flagship book for collectors like you and I. For the general public Spidey and Batman are kings. I really don't think these iconic keys are ever hampered by a movie succeeding or failing though,some opinions may differ. What I don't get is calling a character a B orC list character?The likes ofThor and Iron Man has always been A list to me,and have been a fan since I can remember. That's why I always had to seek out my favorites 1st appearances first,and after Spidey( of course) Hulk,Thor,SilverSurfer,Green Lantern,and Iron Man were my top choices to get. I have to realize that I will probably never get my hands on a Tec 27,as Batman is right up there as far as influencing my comic book life.

 

I didn't mean to insult Dr. Strange fans, and understandably many of us have favorite characters that we may value more than others, but are aware that the larger collecting community may not care much about. I was more referencing the collector, who like many ( otherwise higher demand would already have been there), didn't really give Dr. Strange much consideration, but upon realizing the character had been tagged for a feature film, decided ST #110 was a "key" that they just had to have.

[Amadeus Arkham]

Kind of like how everyone needed to have Marvel Preview #4 a couple of years ago?

[Hamlet]

I suspect if the AF 15 market is overloaded with investors/speculators, once prices exceed the market collector's max price at any grade, there will probably be a decline. That or if a bunch of spidey collectors decide to sell off their copies for retirement all at once. I'm sure there's still some meat left on the bone for AF15's as there are plenty of collectors willing to pay $10-20k for low grade and wealthy collectors that will pay the $20-100k for a higher grade copy but will AF 15 ever reach the level of an AC1? I'd put a ceiling on it simply for the fact that there are way more AF 15's than AC1s but I wouldn't be surprised. Unless some renewed interest sparks a FF1 surge, it will remain at rational prices. Which leads me to conclude that FF1 prices are a good measure of where AF 15 prices would/should/could be without the added price inflation from all the investor/speculator/dealer run up. FF1 prices may represent the true collector/fan market and offer a hint of where AF 15 prices may fall should a decline occur.

 

I think this is an interesting way of looking at this. FF1 probably has the lowest amount of speculation currently of any Marvel key. People are not expecting it to appreciate rapidly, so people aren't buying it hoping to flip it. At best, they are hoping to not sell it for a loss. That does seem to imply that the current price for it is a little safer than the keys that have recently exploded upwards in a speculative frenzy.

 

I think AF15 is going to teach a lot of people an unpleasant investing lesson at some point down the road.

 

 

[CBT]

 

I think AF15 is going to teach a lot of people an unpleasant investing lesson at some point down the road.

 

 

Yup, but not until people are forced to sell. They wont learn it willingly, and its going to be the lower grades and people who reached beyond their means, that get hurt the most.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I suspect if the AF 15 market is overloaded with investors/speculators, once prices exceed the market collector's max price at any grade, there will probably be a decline. That or if a bunch of spidey collectors decide to sell off their copies for retirement all at once. I'm sure there's still some meat left on the bone for AF15's as there are plenty of collectors willing to pay $10-20k for low grade and wealthy collectors that will pay the $20-100k for a higher grade copy but will AF 15 ever reach the level of an AC1? I'd put a ceiling on it simply for the fact that there are way more AF 15's than AC1s but I wouldn't be surprised. Unless some renewed interest sparks a FF1 surge, it will remain at rational prices. Which leads me to conclude that FF1 prices are a good measure of where AF 15 prices would/should/could be without the added price inflation from all the investor/speculator/dealer run up. FF1 prices may represent the true collector/fan market and offer a hint of where AF 15 prices may fall should a decline occur.

 

I think this is an interesting way of looking at this. FF1 probably has the lowest amount of speculation currently of any Marvel key. People are not expecting it to appreciate rapidly, so people aren't buying it hoping to flip it. At best, they are hoping to not sell it for a loss. That does seem to imply that the current price for it is a little safer than the keys that have recently exploded upwards in a speculative frenzy.

 

I think AF15 is going to teach a lot of people an unpleasant investing lesson at some point down the road.

 

Good points, but one thing to remember. Disney will pushing and marketing Spider-Man over the next decade, while FF will just languish there.

Spider-Man is really a whole different beast than FF now.

I think we are well past the point of comparing them.

Hulk #1 or TOS #39 would be a better bet for AF #15 for comparision.

 

 

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

F.F.#1 will always be the flagship book for collectors like you and I. For the general public Spidey and Batman are kings. I really don't think these iconic keys are ever hampered by a movie succeeding or failing though,some opinions may differ. What I don't get is calling a character a B orC list character?The likes ofThor and Iron Man has always been A list to me,and have been a fan since I can remember. That's why I always had to seek out my favorites 1st appearances first,and after Spidey( of course) Hulk,Thor,SilverSurfer,Green Lantern,and Iron Man were my top choices to get. I have to realize that I will probably never get my hands on a Tec 27,as Batman is right up there as far as influencing my comic book life.

 

I didn't mean to insult Dr. Strange fans, and understandably many of us have favorite characters that we may value more than others, but are aware that the larger collecting community may not care much about. I was more referencing the collector, who like many ( otherwise higher demand would already have been there), didn't really give Dr. Strange much consideration, but upon realizing the character had been tagged for a feature film, decided ST #110 was a "key" that they just had to have.

I see Benedict Cumberbatch as a great actor. I would expect Dr.Strange to be a breakout hit.

 

 

[Amadeus Arkham]

Conversely, Disney/Marvel will get the cinematic rights to the Fantastic Four back at some point and FF#1 will rebound.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Conversely, Disney/Marvel will get the cinematic rights to the Fantastic Four back at some point and FF#1 will rebound.

It would take years. Fox already green lighted a second FF movie.

The minimum time for Marvel to get back FF would be somewhere between 2025 to 2030!

[Hamlet]

 

I think AF15 is going to teach a lot of people an unpleasant investing lesson at some point down the road.

 

 

Yup, but not until people are forced to sell. They wont learn it willingly, and its going to be the lower grades and people who reached beyond their means, that get hurt the most.

 

Speculation is a strange thing. I got mildly caught up in the 90s comic foolishness. I probably still have about 40 copies of Wolverine 50 That lesson probably saved me 100 times as much money during the dot com insanity though. I had seen a bubble before, so I wasn't buying tech stocks with no earnings because of all of the "page views" they were getting. It kept me out of trouble during the housing bubble. My stocks got crushed along with everything else since the world appeared to be ending, but I had a modest mortgage and no other debt, so I could keep buying in my 401k and not lose any sleep over it. When the world didn't end, I was in great shape.

 

I think your analysis of the financial crisis and Fed policy borders on insanity However, your investment advice is solid for any time period. Don't borrow money to invest. Think through what happens if it turns out really ugly and make sure you can deal with a massive loss, because all investments can go sour. If everyone thinks that something can't go down in value, run screaming from it as an investment.

 

I only needed the one lesson to keep me from getting caught up in speculation again. I just don't understand how people can't recognize that the same madness that led to the 2000 stock market and the 2006 housing market is alive and well in the comics market today.

[Hamlet]

Good points, but one thing to remember. Disney will pushing and marketing Spider-Man over the next decade, while FF will just languish there.

Spider-Man is really a whole different beast than FF now.

I think we are well past the point of comparing them now.

Hulk #1 or TOS #39 would be a better bet for AF #15 for comparision.

 

Sure, and I think it makes sense for AF15 to be more expensive than FF1, but probably not 3X times as expensive.

 

IMO, the recent price escalation of AF15 has every sign of a speculative frenzy.

[Vger7]

Unfortunately, speculation and collecting are 2 sides of the same coin. Like many of you, I used to think that the AF#15 would eventually crash but I'm not so sure anymore. For the same reason that movies have less effect on these books, I think they are also more insulated from an economic slump. At worst, they will simply become less liquid as we saw during 2008-2009. This is the beauty of buying into "blue chip" comics.

 

Conversely, popular books such as Hulk#181, ASM#129 and GSX#1 have been halved. While most books have recovered from the housing crisis, these particular titles in high grade 9.8's have barely budged. I feel really bad for the folks who purchased a Hulk#181 9.8 for a whopping $25k! Both ASM#129 and GSX#1 in 9.8 used to trade over $12k at one point. Crazy prices for books that number in the thousands.

 

Speculative frenzy? You bet. Just look at prices for Ms. Marvel #1 in 9.8. At one point, there was one listed as being sold for $2650 on GPA. For some reason it's since been removed but there are several others with recorded sales of over $2000! I used to pick these out of the dollar bins not too long ago. As well BA#12, NM#98 which have a count of multi-thousand slab copies. Personally, I'd rather put this money into more copies of SA blue chips.

 

I think we can all agree that during another economic slump, these modern books will be the first to go south. It's not a question of "if" but "when" knowing that the economy is cyclical.