Are key comics good investments?

[delekkerste]

Since I already know your mind is made up and will say yes so please elaborate on why two books that have never really gone down in price since they were published are any different than buying Apple shares at today's current prices.

 

Everything you buy in life has a risk to lose value. Comics are no different than stocks. I wouldn't advise anyone to only buy AF 15's the same as I wouldn't advise anyone to buy stock in just one company.

 

First, it's not true that Hulk #181 has never gone down. Maybe in mid-grade, but 9.8s were once a $25K item. Remember those GL #76 HG sales at crazy prices? Avengers #4 9.6 selling for $91.5K? The list goes on and on. And let's not get started on all the non-key top census copies that were driven up to unsustainable prices.

 

Second, comics ARE different than stocks. Buy a Hulk #181 CGC 9.8 today and, in 20 years...all you will have is the same Hulk #181 CGC 9.8. Stocks, on the other hand, will have 20 years of earnings and dividends behind them. How much money will Apple have made during that time - more than a trillion dollars, probably. A TRILLION DOLLARS.

 

Third, all this talk about comics rising in price for decades is a total red herring. The comic market was, despite its long history, an undeveloped wilderness with prices at pennies on today's dollar with huge bid-ask spreads until the Internet facilitated peer-to-peer trading and third party grading came along. As if there is any resemblance with the state of the comic market now versus most of its previous history. The comparison is totally spurious - what you see as a permanent trend is actually only a lifecycle with an extended development period. The illusion of permanently rising prices will be comprehensively shattered during the next generational transition.

 

Again, not saying you can't potentially make money hustling, speculating, and maybe even buying and holding over the short-term. But, if you're investing now to pay for your unborn child's college education in 20 years, I think you'll be lucky to break even after inflation after 20 years buying a lot of books at 2015 prices, even if you manage to do OK on them for a while.

[BarryAllen]

 

I have nearly 100K in my sig line. I certainly didn't pay that kind of dough for them,so guess my financial decisions have indeed worked out for me.

 

Would you then have no problem suggesting to someone to buy the comics in your signature line at todays prices?? In my opinion to do that at todays prices would be the same as attempting financial suicide

 

"Financial suicide" seems a bit strong; especially when you don't know what they plan to do with them and their personal financial situation.

 

You do know you are posting on a comic forum right?

 

Side note - can you please answer these questions?

 

1) what do you do for a living?

2) how old are you?

3) how much money do you have set aside for retirement?

4) how is your portfolio diversified?

5) did the US land on the moon in 1969?

6) are you a dog or a cat person?

[Gotham Kid]

 

Every time I read your posts, Michael Douglas' voice speaks to me.

 

+1

[1950's war comics]

I think 1950's War Comics statements should be taken in the most practical (and obvious) terms. i.e., "investing" in comic books is probably a lunatic notion for you if you work at Morgan Stanley, or still live with your parents, or your family is going hungry while you are buying books, etc.

 

I personally see comic book collecting as an (expensive) hobby, not an investment strategy.

 

 

-J.

 

Correct.

 

For any of us that are usually financially responsible adding comics such as some of the ones you have in your picture below your posts can't hurt either.

 

you should see his other sig line

 

Maybe you should mine as well

 

Yours isn't so bad either! (thumbs u

 

I have nearly 100K in my sig line. I certainly didn't pay that kind of dough for them,so guess my financial decisions have indeed worked out for me.

 

Would you then have no problem suggesting to someone to buy the comics in your signature line at todays prices?? In my opinion to do that at todays prices would be the same as attempting financial suicide

 

Yes,I would have no problem with that what so ever.

 

There you have it folks, two different viewpoints

First the viewpoint of Oakman who has no problem with suggesting you spend up to 100K in TODAYS dollars to duplicate his signature line

 

And my viewpoint which is that TODAY, key comics ARE NOT a good investment , they are to be collected for fun and for reading, and with prices at all time highs to consider buying them TODAY as investments is the same as committing financial suicide

 

 

[oakman29]

 

I have nearly 100K in my sig line. I certainly didn't pay that kind of dough for them,so guess my financial decisions have indeed worked out for me.

 

Would you then have no problem suggesting to someone to buy the comics in your signature line at todays prices?? In my opinion to do that at todays prices would be the same as attempting financial suicide

 

"Financial suicide" seems a bit strong; especially when you don't know what they plan to do with them and their personal financial situation.

 

You do know you are posting on a comic forum right?

 

Side note - can you please answer these questions?

 

1) what do you do for a living? Exterminator

2) how old are you? 50

3) how much money do you have set aside for retirement? Alot

4) how is your portfolio diversified? Home,classic car,stocks,bonds,401K,comic books,comic art,a few hundred dollars tucked in my mattress.

5) did the US land on the moon in 1969? No doubt yes

6) are you a dog or a cat person?

dog

 

[delekkerste]

"Financial suicide" seems a bit strong; especially when you don't know what they plan to do with them and their personal financial situation.

 

Financial suicide might be a bit strong, but financially unwise is not, IMO.

 

I've seen this happen before so many times. My mom in the late '90s - making money hand over fist in tech stocks, telling me to go all-in because prices always go up and I will, and I quote, "never regret it". Textbook example of confusing brains with a bull market. Thankfully I didn't follow her advice. Of course, those triple-digit gains eventually turned into her losing about 60% of her original capital. Oops.

 

Or, when my mom joined a biotech company whose founders had gotten rich working for what became a pharmaceutical company behemoth. So, of course, she put tons of money in pharma stocks, which had basically been going up for the previous 50-60 years. Oops. I guess somebody didn't tell her that the time to get in was ages ago, not when valuations were at all-time highs and market capitalizations were among the largest in the marketplace. Law of large numbers, mean reversion, lifecycles anyone? Buying key books at steroidal prices now is like betting on Mickey Mantle's future career prospects in 1967. The time to get in was 1951, or 1954 or even 1960. You want to get in on AF #15 5.0/5.5 at $500 like Oakman 30-odd years ago. You don't want to be paying $28K today - what kind of returns can you realistically expect longer-term from these starting levels? If this is the best investment idea you have, good luck with life.

 

It's not what you buy, it's when you buy and when you sell that counts. Grasp that basic concept and you won't end up a Bag-Holder .

[lou_fine]

First, it's not true that Hulk #181 has never gone down. Maybe in mid-grade, but 9.8s were once a $25K item. Remember those GL #76 HG sales at crazy prices? Avengers #4 9.6 selling for $91.5K? The list goes on and on. And let's not get started on all the non-key top census copies that were driven up to unsustainable prices.

 

 

Usually in agreement with you on your financial take of the comic book marketplace, but not with your particular examples.

 

I think almost everybody knew that the top of census sales which you are referring to were not financially wise to start with as these are actually common books sold at outrageous top of market prices, with nowhere else to go but down. Especially when there were and still are thousands of ungraded copies out there, coupled with all of the sanctioned manipulation of books to improve their grade in today's CGC marketplace.

 

The buyers of the above books at irrational exuberant prices which you are referring to were not so much investing into a comic book, and really more so foolishly throwing their money into a CGC grade that were prone to diminishing value as time goes by.

[NewWorldOrder]

Listen if any of us bought for the most part all grade ranges of Af 15's or Hulk 181's from the day CGC opened its doors till this very date we all would have made a massive profit or ROI.

 

So for me to say these books have hit the ceiling or maxed out is something I don't personally believe.

 

Will a book such as AF 15 or Hulk 1 level out and hit a wall, sure. However IMO they will continue to go up as a blue chip 5-10% per year for the rest of my life.

 

As with stocks there are some comic books that I think are good investments and some that are not so good.

 

As SOT said back in 2007...."Comics books are a commodity thank god."

 

[delekkerste]

Usually in agreement with you on your financial take of the comic book marketplace, but not with your particular examples.

 

I think almost everybody knew that the top of census sales which you are referring to were not financially wise to start with as these are actually common books sold at outrageous top of market prices, with nowhere else to go but down. Especially when there were and still are thousands of ungraded copies out there, coupled with all of the sanctioned manipulation of books to improve their grade in today's CGC marketplace.

 

The buyers of the above books at irrational exuberant prices which you are referring to were not so much investing into a comic book, and really more so foolishly throwing their money into a CGC grade that were prone to diminishing value as time goes by.

 

With all due respect, I think it's a gross overstatement to say that everybody knew these sales were not financially wise. Yes, a number of people recognized the folly ahead of time, but I encountered a lot of people during my comic collecting days who didn't believe the census would balloon to where it did. And, a number of these sales pre-dated the CPR phenomenon and the loosening of grading standards (heck, a lot of transactions even pre-dated GPA or were private deals that were never even recorded publicly for posterity) which exacerbated things even more but were not obvious to predict.

 

I think it's a bit disingenuous to discount all these sales because "everybody" somehow knew they were unwise. Certainly the guy who paid $91,500 for that Avengers #4 9.6 didn't expect to only get $29,600 (less commissions) when he resold it not long after. In any case, like it or not, these are real sales and part of the price history of these books, and shouldn't be cast aside. I'm sure my mom would like to cast aside all the tech bubble losses she sustained because "everybody knew these [transactions] were not financially wise". At the end of the day, losses are losses.

[delekkerste]

Listen if any of us bought for the most part all grade ranges of Af 15's or Hulk 181's from the day CGC opened its doors till this very date we all would have made a massive profit or ROI.

 

So for me to say these books have hit the ceiling or maxed out is something I don't personally believe.

 

Will a book such as AF 15 or Hulk 1 level out and hit a wall, sure. However IMO they will continue to go up as a blue chip 5-10% per year for the rest of my life.

 

As with stocks there are some comic books that I think are good investments and some that are not so good.

 

As SOT said back in 2007...."Comics books are a commodity thank god."

 

Let's say AF #15 5.5's suddenly went to $250,000 overnight. Would it still be a good investment then? There is nothing inherent about AF #15 that makes it a good investment at any price. In fact, it's probably the most obvious investment in the comic market and, as such, unless you believe that the market is grossly inefficient, it should be priced to reflect low-risk and low returns. I'm sorry, but there is no way that book is priced to deliver 5-10% compounded annual returns going forward unless you believe that, despite being the most popular book in the hobby, it is somehow remains chronically overlooked and undervalued, which is utterly laughable. I mean, judging from what you are saying, AF #15 is a blue chip no-brainer. Why should the market reward Johnny-come-latelies with 5-10% compounded annual returns from here on such a book? If a low-risk, no-brainer book like that is going to return that much, I guess we should expect 15-20% compounded returns on more speculative books? Makes no sense, dude.

 

And, like I said - in 20 years, your AF #15 will still be AF #15. It won't pay you a cent of rent, interest or dividends or generate any earnings along the way. Its value will depend solely on what some kid or young adult will pay for it then. And, no way will that generation have the numbers and financial resources (let alone the interest) to clear the market at 5-10% CAGRs on top of today's prices. nWo? More like NFW!!

[1950's war comics]

Do not confuse the Kool-Aid crowd with common sense financial logic

[NewWorldOrder]

Listen if any of us bought for the most part all grade ranges of Af 15's or Hulk 181's from the day CGC opened its doors till this very date we all would have made a massive profit or ROI.

 

So for me to say these books have hit the ceiling or maxed out is something I don't personally believe.

 

Will a book such as AF 15 or Hulk 1 level out and hit a wall, sure. However IMO they will continue to go up as a blue chip 5-10% per year for the rest of my life.

 

As with stocks there are some comic books that I think are good investments and some that are not so good.

 

As SOT said back in 2007...."Comics books are a commodity thank god."

 

Let's say AF #15 5.5's suddenly went to $250,000 overnight. Would it still be a good investment then? There is nothing inherent about AF #15 that makes it a good investment at any price. In fact, it's probably the most obvious investment in the comic market and, as such, unless you believe that the market is grossly inefficient, it should be priced to reflect low-risk and low returns. I'm sorry, but there is no way that book is priced to deliver 5-10% compounded annual returns going forward unless you believe that, despite being the most popular book in the hobby, it is somehow remains chronically overlooked and undervalued, which is utterly laughable. I mean, judging from what you are saying, AF #15 is a blue chip no-brainer. Why should the market reward Johnny-come-latelies with 5-10% compounded annual returns from here on such a book? If a low-risk, no-brainer book like that is going to return that much, I guess we should expect 15-20% compounded returns on more speculative books? Makes no sense, dude.

 

And, like I said - in 20 years, your AF #15 will still be AF #15. It won't pay you a cent of rent, interest or dividends or generate any earnings along the way. Its value will depend solely on what some kid or young adult will pay for it then. And, no way will that generation have the numbers and financial resources (let alone the interest) to clear the market at 5-10% CAGRs on top of today's prices. nWo? More like NFW!!

 

 

Gene as as Brian would say, "wait a minute"

 

If the AF 15 goes up in the value which it has every year since I began tracking it since 2003 isn't that a dividend or generating earning asset.

 

Apple's stock depends solely on the companies ability to make money on the innovation/profits of their products and services so nothing is guaranteed with them either.

 

I guess my point to you or anyone is what basis or data are you seeing that I am not to show where these books (talking about the top 100 books in the hobby) are not a good investment that will not show you a steady return over the long run?

 

I see what you obviously saying that if you had 10K it is better to invest that $ amount into a company such as Apple because you have the opportunity to be paid out in dividends each quarter as well as a return if the stock steadily rises. Taking that 10K and buying a AF 15, Hulks 1, or a couple of Hulk 181's will still show you a return on your money for the foreseeable future, and is better than doing nothing with the 10k and just having it be dead money under a mattress or in a worthless savings account.

[BarryAllen]

Do not confuse the Kool-Aid crowd with common sense financial logic

 

[BarryAllen]

Listen if any of us bought for the most part all grade ranges of Af 15's or Hulk 181's from the day CGC opened its doors till this very date we all would have made a massive profit or ROI.

 

So for me to say these books have hit the ceiling or maxed out is something I don't personally believe.

 

Will a book such as AF 15 or Hulk 1 level out and hit a wall, sure. However IMO they will continue to go up as a blue chip 5-10% per year for the rest of my life.

 

As with stocks there are some comic books that I think are good investments and some that are not so good.

 

As SOT said back in 2007...."Comics books are a commodity thank god."

 

Let's say AF #15 5.5's suddenly went to $250,000 overnight. Would it still be a good investment then? There is nothing inherent about AF #15 that makes it a good investment at any price. In fact, it's probably the most obvious investment in the comic market and, as such, unless you believe that the market is grossly inefficient, it should be priced to reflect low-risk and low returns. I'm sorry, but there is no way that book is priced to deliver 5-10% compounded annual returns going forward unless you believe that, despite being the most popular book in the hobby, it is somehow remains chronically overlooked and undervalued, which is utterly laughable. I mean, judging from what you are saying, AF #15 is a blue chip no-brainer. Why should the market reward Johnny-come-latelies with 5-10% compounded annual returns from here on such a book? If a low-risk, no-brainer book like that is going to return that much, I guess we should expect 15-20% compounded returns on more speculative books? Makes no sense, dude.

 

And, like I said - in 20 years, your AF #15 will still be AF #15. It won't pay you a cent of rent, interest or dividends or generate any earnings along the way. Its value will depend solely on what some kid or young adult will pay for it then. And, no way will that generation have the numbers and financial resources (let alone the interest) to clear the market at 5-10% CAGRs on top of today's prices. nWo? More like NFW!!

 

What if I just want to own key books and have them hold value for around 20 years (+/- 5%)?

 

I agree the growth has to slow (aggressively) given the current market cap on these books and the aging population of the generation that sustains the majority of the purchase behavior. However, I would think that the bottom wouldn't fall out until around 20 years from now when most the baby boomers start to die off, or begin to feel increased financial pressure as they reach end of life funding obstacles (increased health care costs, retirement portfolio reaching the end of it's life-cycle, etc) and they begin selling off all other assets.

 

In this instance, wouldn't it be prudent to buy a copy now (if you have the disposable income) rather than later? Realistically, based on inflation alone, shouldn't the earlier you buy the better?

 

Or is that not correct.

[lou_fine]

Usually in agreement with you on your financial take of the comic book marketplace, but not with your particular examples.

 

I think almost everybody knew that the top of census sales which you are referring to were not financially wise to start with as these are actually common books sold at outrageous top of market prices, with nowhere else to go but down. Especially when there were and still are thousands of ungraded copies out there, coupled with all of the sanctioned manipulation of books to improve their grade in today's CGC marketplace.

 

The buyers of the above books at irrational exuberant prices which you are referring to were not so much investing into a comic book, and really more so foolishly throwing their money into a CGC grade that were prone to diminishing value as time goes by.

 

With all due respect, I think it's a gross overstatement to say that everybody knew these sales were not financially wise. Yes, a number of people recognized the folly ahead of time, but I encountered a lot of people during my comic collecting days who didn't believe the census would balloon to where it did.

 

Well, I hate to pop anybody's balloon, but the census numbers still have a long ways to grow with all of the ungraded collections still sitting out there and the fervent manipulation that is being done to books. Have always said this and it looks like we are nowhere close to the end yet.

 

I think it's a bit disingenuous to discount all these sales because "everybody" somehow knew they were unwise. Certainly the guy who paid $91,500 for that Avengers #4 9.6 didn't expect to only get $29,600 (less commissions) when he resold it not long after. In any case, like it or not, these are real sales and part of the price history of these books, and shouldn't be cast aside.

 

Since we are on the CGC boards here, I can certainly understand why we always focus on the highlight highest graded copy sales. But how about the other thousands of non-highest graded copies or even raw copies where the real comic book market is. Are they also showing the same ridiculous >15X guide price sales performance and wild swing in prices that we see when we use that one outlying pinnacle sale to try to represent the overall market price for that particular book.

 

I have always felt that if you do not get similar price support across all of the condition spectrum for a particular book, then you are probably drinking too much of the CGC kool-aid if you have paid a ridiculous price for the book. If so, you have just brought and paid into the CGC grade mentality only, as opposed to the actual comic book itself.

 

 

 

I'm sure my mom would like to cast aside all the tech bubble losses she sustained because "everybody knew these [transactions] were not financially wise". At the end of the day, losses are losses.

 

With your superior financial acumen and foresight, I thought your mother would have heeded some of your advice and had not fallen victim to this crash.

[paperheart]

Don't know what you are talking about, given that there are people in this very thread who have said that they don't trust the stock market but do trust comics (or similar views)! I know people - friends even - who have 50-95% of their net worth in comics and/or comic art. They might not say out loud that comics are an adequate replacement for a 401k and savings, but they sure as hell are counting on comics to fund a significant portion of their retirement.

 

Going back to the poll on page 1 of this thread, almost a quarter (29 out of 124) of respondents have 50% or more of their net worth tied up in comics. About a third (39 out of 24) have 30% or more, while close to half (55 out of 124) have 20% or more. More than one in ten (15 out of 124) have 80% of their net worth in comics.

 

Now, of course, there's self-selection bias at play, and not everyone is going to be truthful in responding (some will underestimate and some will overestimate, whether out of denial, mischief or what have you). But, I think it's fair to say that, even allowing for some adjustments to the data, there are a lot of people with a significant portion of their net worth tied up in comics, and not all of them are holding with a short-to-medium term horizon. Many in this hobby are very plainly investing in comics for retirement - it may not be the only plan for them, but it's certainly a big part of the plan for many.

 

frightening. did 11 people actually mean 100%?

[BlowUpTheMoon]

Do not confuse the Kool-Aid crowd with common sense financial logic

 

 

Meme misuse.

[lou_fine]

And, like I said - in 20 years, your AF #15 will still be AF #15. It won't pay you a cent of rent, interest or dividends or generate any earnings along the way.

 

You are most definitely right on this particular point as my wife has been also been telling me for all these years.

 

The financial return on your comic books only comes when you sell them as you have no associated streams of revenue while you are holding them. Not so the case with real estate which seems to be her favorite topic along with most other people here in the city.

 

Pretty hard to argue with her when you have to go all in for a book versus only a small down payment for a secondary property. At the same time with comics, there are also no additional streams of revenue such as rental income which you can collect in the interim while you are holding the asset.

 

And finally, it looks like the pure financial return (i.e. exclusive of monthly rental income) from any and all potential property sales in this city over the past couple of decades would certainly have surpass any gains to be realized from the overall general comic marketplace, save possibly only for the top books in the market.

[Aman619]

Then just go back in time and buy the best of the best!

[delekkerste]

If the AF 15 goes up in the value which it has every year since I began tracking it since 2003 isn't that a dividend or generating earning asset.

 

Nope. It hasn't generated anything. Just means that the price has gone up.

 

Read this article by Warren Buffett, especially the part where he talks about unproductive assets like gold and comic books. Here's a couple of tidbits:

 

The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else — who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive — will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century. [Comic books became a favorite of such buyers in the 21st century - Gene]

 

This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce — it will remain lifeless forever — but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.

 

He then proceeds to show how much a pile of productive assets can generate over the next 100 years vs. the unproductive assets generating nothing over that time. You can hold an AF #15 for an eternity and all you will have at the end is an AF #15.

 

 

Apple's stock depends solely on the companies ability to make money on the innovation/profits of their products and services so nothing is guaranteed with them either.

 

This is true. And yet, many Apple bulls just look back what the stock has done since 2003 to justify why it should keep going up forever, much as you are doing with AF #15s.

 

 

I guess my point to you or anyone is what basis or data are you seeing that I am not to show where these books (talking about the top 100 books in the hobby) are not a good investment that will not show you a steady return over the long run?

 

You are looking only in the rear view mirror. You are not looking forward at how the underlying demographics of the hobby will change over the next 20 years. You are not recognizing the impact that the technological revolution has had on the younger generations - it has splintered their interests in an almost infinite number of different directions and fundamentally changed their perception of the world along the way. I might agree with you if the next generation was still spending as much time reading comics as Gen X did, and if their employment and financial prospects were brighter than ours. But, they're not.

 

Just as you could no longer linearly extrapolate past experience forward after the Russian Revolution of 1919, you can't just assume that the experience that we have had is going to continue unabated given the technological revolution of the past 20-25 years either. There is no way the younger generation is going to care more about the 1st appearance of Deadpool than people do today. What you thought was a permanent trend was really just the growth portion of an S-curve.