Are key comics good investments?

[shadroch]

One of the things that attracted me to comics was that they seemed to mostly go up in value. From the time I got serious about buying books, in my freshman year of high school, I planned on selling them and buying a car. Friends laffed at me dropping a quarter on a comic while they were buying a bag of chips.

I'd tell them some comics sold for a hundred dollars or more and they would think I was crazy. Very few of my friends had any old comics but many of them had baseball cards- all of which I happily bought. At one point I had a couple of dozen Seaver, and Carew rookies, and numerous 1966-69 Mantles and the 1967 Maury Wills- a grail card for many at the time.

 

By the way, I'd gladly rebuy everything I bought in 2000-2003 for what I paid for it then. I wasn't paying hundreds of dollars for run of the mill stuff, just because it was bonified

[Darkowl]

Love this thread. Instead of arguing if the comic industry will be alive in 10-20yrs maybe we should be discussing if the world as we know it will be around.

 

I am not a dooms day prepper. Mostly because I don't want to survive in order to live in the zombie apocalypse. Prefer to be close to ground zero.

 

So, to me buying comics, Disney stock, gold etc... is pointless. Better to sell everything and enjoy life because there will not be any consequences due to world events. Instead buy guns, ammo, water purification and seeds. To believe the world (as we currently know it) will be here for the next 10-20yrs is foolish.

 

You won't be able to go down to a local store and buy goods with gold or silver let alone comics. Don't think anyone will be able to provide you with change.

 

Or is it?

 

[greenhoody]

[A few years ago I wad really needing money and all the gloom and doom got in my head and I sold all my good stuff and stayed away for a while. I guarantee i'm not the only person that got effected by talk like this.

 

Then you need to go use some of your comic funds to buy a backbone, and be more of a LEADER and less of a SHEEP FOLLOWER.

 

I fully believe that current demographic models are going to eat comics for breakfast, but that doesn't mean I'm running around selling all my comics off as quick as I can.

 

It's my hobby and I only spend what I feel comfortable with, and never "invest" or follow trends _ I buy what I like and that's it. I also don't listen to people screaming "you have to buy XXXXX currently-hot-flash-in-the-pan comic!!" either.

 

Since I was in the hobby all of 6 months I sure as heck didn't trust my own thinking. I knew enough to know I didn't know anything. And I was dead broke from divorce. Sooo yeah...

[originalisbest]

Wait a minute -- you mean my '33 Babe Ruth #181 and '51 Bowman Mantle are destined to become worthless? Rats.

 

But I suppose this must be right -- I mean, whoever heard of Mantle or Ruth.

 

At least they'll make a nice sound in my bike spokes!

[shadroch]

51 Bowman Mantle is a double print. Its even more worthless than the rest of the set.

[originalisbest]

51 Bowman Mantle is a double print. Its even more worthless than the rest of the set.

 

I think you're confusing it with the '52 Topps Mick, which is a double print.

 

Not that it matters too much for them anyway -- a majority of the '52 Topps high numbers were consigned to the ocean in 1960.

[lou_fine]

But, I get a lot of pleasure owning and viewing my collection and have no intention of selling just because it makes financial sense. I built a collection I'm proud of and I enjoy owning it.

 

Now that's a very positive and healthy attitude to take with respect to your collection! (thumbs u

 

We work hard to earn money so that we can buy the things which we enjoy such as comic books, art, or what have you. If they happen to retain their value or we are even lucky enough to have them go up in value in the interim, that's just an extra bonus on top of all of the fun and enjoyment we receive in owning them.

[shadroch]

51 Bowman Mantle is a double print. Its even more worthless than the rest of the set.

 

I think you're confusing it with the '52 Topps Mick, which is a double print.

 

Not that it matters too much for them anyway -- a majority of the '52 Topps high numbers were consigned to the ocean in 1960.

 

 

Either way, they are all worthless.

[originalisbest]

51 Bowman Mantle is a double print. Its even more worthless than the rest of the set.

 

I think you're confusing it with the '52 Topps Mick, which is a double print.

 

Not that it matters too much for them anyway -- a majority of the '52 Topps high numbers were consigned to the ocean in 1960.

 

 

Either way, they are all worthless.

 

 

So true. Garbage I say!

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/auction/2013_preview/1.html

[oakman29]

51 Bowman Mantle is a double print. Its even more worthless than the rest of the set.

 

I think you're confusing it with the '52 Topps Mick, which is a double print.

 

Not that it matters too much for them anyway -- a majority of the '52 Topps high numbers were consigned to the ocean in 1960.

 

 

Either way, they are all worthless.

 

It's all just mental masturbation.

[1950's war comics]

The sky is not falling, collect for fun, not profit. if you have a huge amount tied up in your comics at this time and you have large unpaid credit card or medical or any large bills it might just be a good time to sell because people are buying , if you foresee starting a family or putting your kids through college or even paying off your mortgage then there are absolutely NO regrets ... those things are way more important than funny books that you can re-purchased down the road,

To have an emotional attachment to comics or ANY physical possession goes against all the rules for a successful life as almost everyone knows who believes in god.

I have sold my entire coin collection twice to fund things way more important than mere possessions.

if some of the coins I sold increased beyond my present day means I will find something else within the hobby I can afford.

Anyone who is paying todays prices for key comics (AF15 CGC 5.5 @ $25.000)

and expects a profit down the road has to realize that the odds are even that the comic will drop half its value as easily as it can double its value

[Aman619]

this issue always comes up here... and the same arguments are espoused. There are the inexplicably over-optimistic new collectors going toe to toe against the Lord of "Its All Over Now" and the Official CGC Boards Court Jester. One has been making cogent arguments for the End of Times for over a decade, first over the crazy unattainable prices people were paying ten years ago (which of course today are ridiculously cheap.) and of late using demographics to make the case. While the Jester just uses negativity and the stupidity of anyone paying money for what he knows has been junk for years.

 

The rest of us fall in between I imagine. Some questioning how and why it would all end in tears when we have come so far. Others, way ahead having bought in decades ago, are sitting on huge gains and can't understand the question of "investment" since it has paid off so well for them.

 

While Im in the latter camp, I am also swayed by Deli's logic (thats what he was called a decade ago when he was still one the loudest and most entertaining and erudite nabob of negativity.) But lets face it, the date of our destruction keeps being moved forward a few decades since it just hasn't happened yet. And for me, Im closer to the end of my journey than most of you at the beginning, so it rings truer for me perhaps.

 

But like a clock twice a day, and a chimp with a typewriter, predicting a crash will always make you a genius someday. So like many of us who see the train coming (or slowing down…) comics are hotter than ever, AND, slowly losing their appeal to new generations.

 

So would I buy investment keys today? Id approach them same as ever: Do i think todays price for a specific book is undervalued, then yes. DO I see no a stagnating or declining future for the book going forward? then no. Would I assemble a basket of HG keys again at todays prices? overall no, not all of them, but there are opportunities out there if you follow the market… and don't OVERPAY or sell too quickly

 

But I wouldnt be relying on these purchases for my old age and don't think anyone should today. Comics now sell for the prices we only dreamed they would 20 years ago. In many ways we HAVE reached the mountaintop, or are nearly all the way there. Time to wake up from the dream. We are a very much more mature hobby now than we ever were, for good and bad.

 

And as for demographics, here's what I always say about this. Obviously the internet will be a game changer as we are already seeing. But also, as big and respectable as comics are today, we are STILL only thousands of collectors. We are a tiny hobby. Even the prospect of losing the boomers and each generation following one by one will/should not be impossible to replenish. We just don't need that many new members to keep the market for the good stuff. (and the rest? most of it is already nearly worthless)

 

As proof, how many people in the real world (not here on the chat boards ABOUT comics) do you know collect comics? How many did you know 10 or 20 or 30 years ago? In my experience, its always been a very small group. We always say that back in the day, all kids read comics. True, sorta. They read them sometimes when handy or bored or at camp. But very few of us collected them. I knew maybe three other guys growing up in the 50s/60s who were keeping their comics or seeking out back issues, and we did it in secret. And none of them are still into it. Parents and friends no longer look down on you for buying comics. Many think your are cool. Revenge of the Nerds in Action.

[lou_fine]

Aman;

 

That is just a very well thought out and balanced response! (thumbs u

[thunsicker]

It is balanced. Unfortunately it shows why the hobby must grow tons or face a crash. There are many collectors on these boards who have been assembling these collections for decades. Upper middle class or lower upper class who have put tens of thousands of dollars into it over the last twenty years. These collections are now worth hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars. How many collectors are needed for each of these collections if they spend even twice yearly what the original collectors did? 50? Is there really going to be 50 collectors coming in for each collector who dies or sells out in retirement? And that's to maintain the value. Twice that if prices keep going up as fast as they have. Right now these prices have been kept high by speculators convinced that these prices will continue at these astronomical rates. In the future? I'm not so sure.

[Mark 1]

The saying goes "what goes up, must come down". If we believe this as gospel then surely our prized comics will come crashing down one day. We might not live long enough to see that day but it may happen.

 

Either way, i'll be happy to have owned them and I hope i'm one of the ones who gets to enjoy them and reaps the financial rewards. If not, having owned them is good enough for me.

 

We only go around once in this world (unless someone comes back and tells me otherwise) so I will be grateful for what I have and get to enjoy in this life.

 

 

[kimik]

I can only speak for what I see at shows locally, but the two demographic trends I have noticed the past four years (and posted about several times) are:

 

1) An influx of young collectors in the 12 - 25 year old range that are buying SA, BA, and even GA books.

 

2) The large number of female collectors that have come into the hobby during that period.

 

Now this is likely due to more than just the movies, Marvel Now and New 52 relaunches, and the success of Image in reaching a wider reader audience (for example, high disposable incomes and younger population in Alberta), but it is nice to see nonetheless. Up until 2010 I knew almost every active collector chasing older books and keys (as well as what time to expect them at shows ) as they were the only ones that turned out buy GA/SA/BA. Now, there are new faces popping up at every show. It is great to see.

[oakman29]

I can only speak for what I see at shows locally, but the two demographic trends I have noticed the past four years (and posted about several times) are:

 

1) An influx of young collectors in the 12 - 25 year old range that are buying SA, BA, and even GA books.

 

2) The large number of female collectors that have come into the hobby during that period.

 

Now this is likely due to more than just the movies, Marvel Now and New 52 relaunches, and the success of Image in reaching a wider reader audience (for example, high disposable incomes and younger population in Alberta), but it is nice to see nonetheless. Up until 2010 I knew almost every active collector chasing older books and keys (as well as what time to expect them at shows ) as they were the only ones that turned out buy GA/SA/BA. Now, there are new faces popping up at every show. It is great to see.

 

Thank you very much for your awesome insight. Personally I appreciate it very much. It's good to know that new blood is in fact entering our hobby.

[greenhoody]

So I had an idea on how to get a look at the future of key comics.

 

Look at The Batman Adventures 12. That book is selling stupid high and Harley Quinn first showed up in a cartoon before that book! It's being treated as a total commodity, because that all it really is to most people. No one is collecting that books because it looks cool, or because they grew up reading all the comics she was in. That book can't have sentimental value to very many people.

 

Can that book stay "valuable" for a long while just because shes popular in comics, video games, cartoons and merch now? We'll see. Those things are the only thing that made that book worth anything anyone. Her popularity would fade long before Spider-man and others if his caliber.

[COI]

It is balanced. Unfortunately it shows why the hobby must grow tons or face a crash. There are many collectors on these boards who have been assembling these collections for decades. Upper middle class or lower upper class who have put tens of thousands of dollars into it over the last twenty years. These collections are now worth hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars. How many collectors are needed for each of these collections if they spend even twice yearly what the original collectors did? 50? Is there really going to be 50 collectors coming in for each collector who dies or sells out in retirement? And that's to maintain the value. Twice that if prices keep going up as fast as they have. Right now these prices have been kept high by speculators convinced that these prices will continue at these astronomical rates. In the future? I'm not so sure.

 

Agreed. And I think this is one of the main reasons why the prices on keys are soaring besides, or in conjunction with, speculation; if completing long runs of vintage material is so expensive, the next logical approach for a new collector is to focus on just getting the keys and ignoring the rest. 10-15 years ago you probably could have assembled a complete set of SA Marvel in low grade for around 20K; today, that would barely get you a Hulk 1 and an AF 15.

[Mmehdy]

this issue always comes up here... and the same arguments are espoused. There are the inexplicably over-optimistic new collectors going toe to toe against the Lord of "Its All Over Now" and the Official CGC Boards Court Jester. One has been making cogent arguments for the End of Times for over a decade, first over the crazy unattainable prices people were paying ten years ago (which of course today are ridiculously cheap.) and of late using demographics to make the case. While the Jester just uses negativity and the stupidity of anyone paying money for what he knows has been junk for years.

 

The rest of us fall in between I imagine. Some questioning how and why it would all end in tears when we have come so far. Others, way ahead having bought in decades ago, are sitting on huge gains and can't understand the question of "investment" since it has paid off so well for them.

 

While Im in the latter camp, I am also swayed by Deli's logic (thats what he was called a decade ago when he was still one the loudest and most entertaining and erudite nabob of negativity.) But lets face it, the date of our destruction keeps being moved forward a few decades since it just hasn't happened yet. And for me, Im closer to the end of my journey than most of you at the beginning, so it rings truer for me perhaps.

 

But like a clock twice a day, and a chimp with a typewriter, predicting a crash will always make you a genius someday. So like many of us who see the train coming (or slowing down…) comics are hotter than ever, AND, slowly losing their appeal to new generations.

 

So would I buy investment keys today? Id approach them same as ever: Do i think todays price for a specific book is undervalued, then yes. DO I see no a stagnating or declining future for the book going forward? then no. Would I assemble a basket of HG keys again at todays prices? overall no, not all of them, but there are opportunities out there if you follow the market… and don't OVERPAY or sell too quickly

 

But I wouldnt be relying on these purchases for my old age and don't think anyone should today. Comics now sell for the prices we only dreamed they would 20 years ago. In many ways we HAVE reached the mountaintop, or are nearly all the way there. Time to wake up from the dream. We are a very much more mature hobby now than we ever were, for good and bad.

 

And as for demographics, here's what I always say about this. Obviously the internet will be a game changer as we are already seeing. But also, as big and respectable as comics are today, we are STILL only thousands of collectors. We are a tiny hobby. Even the prospect of losing the boomers and each generation following one by one will/should not be impossible to replenish. We just don't need that many new members to keep the market for the good stuff. (and the rest? most of it is already nearly worthless)

 

As proof, how many people in the real world (not here on the chat boards ABOUT comics) do you know collect comics? How many did you know 10 or 20 or 30 years ago? In my experience, its always been a very small group. We always say that back in the day, all kids read comics. True, sorta. They read them sometimes when handy or bored or at camp. But very few of us collected them. I knew maybe three other guys growing up in the 50s/60s who were keeping their comics or seeking out back issues, and we did it in secret. And none of them are still into it. Parents and friends no longer look down on you for buying comics. Many think your are cool. Revenge of the Nerds in Action.

 

 

In response to your post, let me say it is already OVER. At least for the comic book market of the late 1960,70.s 80 etc. where true collectors roamed.

 

There are always two sides to the coin...but the comic book market today...is the comic book commodity market thanks to the CGC and insane price growth based on an inaccurate census .

 

Sure, back in the 1970's anybody, if they really wanted to could buy an action #1...it was when I bought one the price of a ford. But today at two million dollars we are not taking a car....speculation has become rampant...based upon the weakest assumption of all..."somebody is gonna pay more"

 

Therein lies the problem...the number of true collectors vs speculators at the upper level of collecting....

 

The true collector is more likely to stick it out...even in tough times , the investor is gonna cut his loss and sell it at any price like a widget. They don't give a dammm about comics...this is about widgets...and when the market is dominated by widget buyers...it is just a matter of time when they take off and find a different widget to speculate in. We are not talking about a 2 dollar spiderman #1 comic books...we are talking very large sums of money for a few books.

 

The face of the entire comic book collecting world has turned upside down..with true long term collectors being forced out to the speculator rising prices.

 

This is not the same argument 30 years ago...comic books did not sell at 20X guide and millions of dollars....apple vs orange now.

 

The higher the speculator bubble..the more true collectors are being forced out due to market conditions and the more unstable the market becomes and the higher the price true collectors have to pay and lose down the road.

 

Again, we all know how this is gonna end up...just like every other commodity has historically done.

 

Is it a good time to sell...yes if you are a speculator who has or can make 20% in a year...does it make comic book collecting better... no, and the sooner they leave, which will be painful to everybody, the true value comic book market will emerge.