Are key comics good investments?

[lou_fine]

When I talk about high-grade keys being safe, I'm talking GA. For SA and BA, I think there are still many, many OO collections out there that will drive prices down once most of them have been brought to market.

 

Well, this is a no-brainer and pretty much common sense if you have been following the comic book market for awhile

 

Not sure about the number of OO collections still out there, especially as you go further back into the GA. Without a doubt, however, there are still thousands of uber HG copies for all issues of BA books still sitting in private collections waiting to be graded. The same with HG copies of virtually all SA books, save for the rare exceptions, although this might numbered only in the hundreds.

 

Even with the GA books, there are still many raw pedigree copies sitting out there along with raw private collections that have been amassed by long-term collectors decades ago. Although these might numbered only in the single digits or possibly in the low double digits, I am quite sure they are still out there.

[dupont2005]

Like any other investment, it might be.

 

The thing I like about an investment is that if you accidentally drop it on the ground it's value doesn't instantly plummet. That if it's stored in less than archival conditions it doesn't become worthless. And that it doesn't take a trained expert to access it's value, or even that it's value can be accessed without simply putting it up to auction and hoping for the best.

[Aman619]

These speculators you describe are still comics people. They are still IN our little club. Gene wrote a hilarious post about two oligarchs chatting about the 3M Action 1 back when it sold. Basically it was way far off their radar.

 

Same for all big monied individuals. They are NOT in the comics speculating game. It's comics people. They are still the only ones with a yen (and not a Japanese yen) for speculating on a comic book investment. They just have to pony up way more than you did today.

 

And the 3M Action 1 only sold for 3x Guide. The only books that sell for 20x Guide today are TV movie hyped books before Oversteet gets a chance to increase his Guide price. And Overstrett doesn't list 9.8 prices, so what does 20x guide mean anyway?

 

 

But whatever. Not to nitpick. So are you selling?

[Aman619]

When I talk about high-grade keys being safe, I'm talking GA. For SA and BA, I think there are still many, many OO collections out there that will drive prices down once most of them have been brought to market.

 

Well, this is a no-brainer and pretty much common sense if you have been following the comic book market for awhile

 

Not sure about the number of OO collections still out there, especially as you go further back into the GA. Without a doubt, however, there are still thousands of uber HG copies for all issues of BA books still sitting in private collections waiting to be graded. The same with HG copies of virtually all SA books, save for the rare exceptions, although this might numbered only in the hundreds.

 

Even with the GA books, there are still many raw pedigree copies sitting out there along with raw private collections that have been amassed by long-term collectors decades ago. Although these might numbered only in the single digits or possibly in the low double digits, I am quite sure they are still out there.

 

 

The earliest SA keys pre 1963 have not seen an explosion in their census numbers. Especially AF15, Hulk 1 and JIM 83, as well a s the DC keys. In some cases yes, though. I'm shocked how many TOS 39s there now are in 9.4. Avengers 1, 4 Daredevil 1 and even Xmen 1 are plentiful above 9.0. But they were later keys and were always expected to have been more common in HG even before the CGC census proved it.

[Mmehdy]

These speculators you describe are still comics people. They are still IN our little club. Gene wrote a hilarious post about two oligarchs chatting about the 3M Action 1 back when it sold. Basically it was way far off their radar.

 

Same for all big monied individuals. They are NOT in the comics speculating game. It's comics people. They are still the only ones with a yen (and not a Japanese yen) for speculating on a comic book investment. They just have to pony up way more than you did today.

 

And the 3M Action 1 only sold for 3x Guide. The only books that sell for 20x Guide today are TV movie hyped books before Oversteet gets a chance to increase his Guide price. And Overstrett doesn't list 9.8 prices, so what does 20x guide mean anyway?

 

 

But whatever. Not to nitpick. So are you selling?

 

 

I find upgrading is almost impossible compared to the "old days". If the market were to crash today, I still could turn a profit...but who cares. Yes there are still some books out there that I want, not necessarily on the "big" radar and I am slowly acquiring them. But why sell just because the ballon is blown up....those specs are not just "collectors" either...There are not gonna tell people they are investors until after they cash out...I am sure myself and you are gonna be left to pick up the pieces when this plays out.

 

You are 100% right about one thing 20x times or 100 it does not matter anymore, it the big 3 (CC,CL, Ha) that control the market and the prices not Overstreet. But when the crash comes...we are all gonna go back to that book, which might save us by setting a floor at to value down the road.

 

But still, beware 9.8 or 9.6 not much difference and not worth 10X more for 2/10 of a grading point...beware

[delekkerste]

It is balanced. Unfortunately it shows why the hobby must grow tons or face a crash. There are many collectors on these boards who have been assembling these collections for decades. Upper middle class or lower upper class who have put tens of thousands of dollars into it over the last twenty years. These collections are now worth hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars. How many collectors are needed for each of these collections if they spend even twice yearly what the original collectors did? 50? Is there really going to be 50 collectors coming in for each collector who dies or sells out in retirement? And that's to maintain the value. Twice that if prices keep going up as fast as they have. Right now these prices have been kept high by speculators convinced that these prices will continue at these astronomical rates. In the future? I'm not so sure.

 

Exactly. It's not even enough that future generations of collectors have to replace the older generations in terms of numbers. No, given that almost all the collections out there will eventually be sold (as opposed to sold, donated, etc. in, say, the fine art world), nearly all the books currently owned by the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers will turn over in the marketplace at least once in the next, say, 30 years. And, as you pointed out, these collections are now worth orders of magnitude than they used to be - and people think these prices will keep on rising for years to come. So, the next generation of collectors will have to have the resources to be able to clear the market for ALL these books (because eventually the rest of the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers will drop out of buying and will sell) at all-time high future prices. They simply won't have either the numbers or the financial resources. It's simple math, folks. A few young and women collectors buying books in Alberta isn't going to change this fact (sorry, Ryan) - the plural of anecdote isn't evidence.

 

And, all due respect to Aman, but the small numbers argument won't work here. First, the hobby isn't all that small. Second, you have to look at it from a Bayesian probability perspective - start with the populations of the previous generations and look at the probability/conversion rates of people who became collectors. Now apply that to the younger generations and all the probability nodes have become tiny fractions of what they once were with peoples' interests splintered in so many directions over the past 20 years and it's just not going to happen. I've seen arguments like this (e.g., if emerging markets consumers use even 25% of the oil that Americans do, then oil prices will be $300/bbl.! if even 1 in 20 Chinese people uses Crest toothpaste, P&G's stock price will soar!, etc.) These top-down arguments sound seductive to those who are looking for a reason to believe, but they rarely/never come true because the premise is horribly flawed upon closer inspection. I'll take the other side of that bet all day long and twice on Sunday.

 

At the end of the day, it's a prayer vs. math. Always bet on math.

[ciorac]

It is balanced. Unfortunately it shows why the hobby must grow tons or face a crash. There are many collectors on these boards who have been assembling these collections for decades. Upper middle class or lower upper class who have put tens of thousands of dollars into it over the last twenty years. These collections are now worth hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars. How many collectors are needed for each of these collections if they spend even twice yearly what the original collectors did? 50? Is there really going to be 50 collectors coming in for each collector who dies or sells out in retirement? And that's to maintain the value. Twice that if prices keep going up as fast as they have. Right now these prices have been kept high by speculators convinced that these prices will continue at these astronomical rates. In the future? I'm not so sure.

 

Exactly. It's not even enough that future generations of collectors have to replace the older generations in terms of numbers. No, given that almost all the collections out there will eventually be sold (as opposed to sold, donated, etc. in, say, the fine art world), nearly all the books currently owned by the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers will turn over in the marketplace at least once in the next, say, 30 years. And, as you pointed out, these collections are now worth orders of magnitude than they used to be - and people think these prices will keep on rising for years to come. So, the next generation of collectors will have to have the resources to be able to clear the market for ALL these books (because eventually the rest of the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers will drop out of buying and will sell) at all-time high future prices. They simply won't have either the numbers or the financial resources. It's simple math, folks. A few young and women collectors buying books in Alberta isn't going to change this fact (sorry, Ryan) - the plural of anecdote isn't evidence.

 

And, all due respect to Aman, but the small numbers argument won't work here. First, the hobby isn't all that small. Second, you have to look at it from a Bayesian probability perspective - start with the populations of the previous generations and look at the probability/conversion rates of people who became collectors. Now apply that to the younger generations and all the probability nodes have become tiny fractions of what they once were with peoples' interests splintered in so many directions over the past 20 years and it's just not going to happen. I've seen arguments like this (e.g., if emerging markets consumers use even 25% of the oil that Americans do, then oil prices will be $300/bbl.! if even 1 in 20 Chinese people uses Crest toothpaste, P&G's stock price will soar!, etc.) These top-down arguments sound seductive to those who are looking for a reason to believe, but they rarely/never come true because the premise is horribly flawed upon closer inspection. I'll take the other side of that bet all day long and twice on Sunday.

 

At the end of the day, it's a prayer vs. math. Always bet on math.

 

It's been almost seven years since the last stock market and real estate crash. When will the next one be? Many of us lost 40% or more in our 401k "investments", and many more were left holding the bag with their real estate "investments".

 

Seven years later the real estate market is still recovering, slowly, and stocks are giddy again in some sectors I guess. Quite a number of my larger position stocks still haven't gotten back to the price they were years ago. I have no control over what they will do, or won't do.

 

Yet, my collection is worth many times more now than it was seven years ago.

 

However, one person, or a very small group of people in comics can control what the market does for select issues or titles. Comic art is very similar.

 

[joe_collector]

Wait a minute -- you mean my '33 Babe Ruth #181 and '51 Bowman Mantle are destined to become worthless? Rats.

 

Yes, this conversation is obviously about vintage sportscards of genuine legends from the 30's that are destined to be worthless.

 

Cue someone posting the standard "I guess you guys are telling me I should run naked in the streets selling my key GA/SA comics for pennies on the dollar, right?"-type comment.

[topofthetotem]

At the end of the day, it's a prayer vs. math. Always bet on math.

When I read this line, this is all I could think of.

Original Video - More videos at TinyPic

[october]

Round and round we go. Here is a gem of a market thread from 2005, with many of the same posters and essentially the exact same arguments.

 

We should have cut and pasted. Would have saved time.

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=708615&fpart=1

 

[prez]

I can only speak for what I see at shows locally, but the two demographic trends I have noticed the past four years (and posted about several times) are:

 

1) An influx of young collectors in the 12 - 25 year old range that are buying SA, BA, and even GA books.

 

2) The large number of female collectors that have come into the hobby during that period.

 

Now this is likely due to more than just the movies, Marvel Now and New 52 relaunches, and the success of Image in reaching a wider reader audience (for example, high disposable incomes and younger population in Alberta), but it is nice to see nonetheless. Up until 2010 I knew almost every active collector chasing older books and keys (as well as what time to expect them at shows ) as they were the only ones that turned out buy GA/SA/BA. Now, there are new faces popping up at every show. It is great to see.

 

I'd like to meet those 12 or even 17-yr old Albertans buying movie hyped mid-grade SA books and paying 3x the guide price.

 

[NewWorldOrder]

I can only speak for what I see at shows locally, but the two demographic trends I have noticed the past four years (and posted about several times) are:

 

1) An influx of young collectors in the 12 - 25 year old range that are buying SA, BA, and even GA books.

 

2) The large number of female collectors that have come into the hobby during that period.

 

Now this is likely due to more than just the movies, Marvel Now and New 52 relaunches, and the success of Image in reaching a wider reader audience (for example, high disposable incomes and younger population in Alberta), but it is nice to see nonetheless. Up until 2010 I knew almost every active collector chasing older books and keys (as well as what time to expect them at shows ) as they were the only ones that turned out buy GA/SA/BA. Now, there are new faces popping up at every show. It is great to see.

 

Yes that is what many dealers have been saying as well, but unfortunately when we flat out tell some of these people here in this thread they seem to not soak that in when they skim over our posts.

 

Most only see grey haired collectors for some reason.

[NewWorldOrder]

So I had an idea on how to get a look at the future of key comics.

 

Look at The Batman Adventures 12. That book is selling stupid high and Harley Quinn first showed up in a cartoon before that book! It's being treated as a total commodity, because that all it really is to most people. No one is collecting that books because it looks cool, or because they grew up reading all the comics she was in. That book can't have sentimental value to very many people.

 

Can that book stay "valuable" for a long while just because shes popular in comics, video games, cartoons and merch now? We'll see. Those things are the only thing that made that book worth anything anyone. Her popularity would fade long before Spider-man and others if his caliber.

 

Can a character remain popular and relevant if companies are marketing the character correctly with all the necessary outlets? I would think so yeah.

 

Wonder Woman and Catwoman are nothing right now compared to Harley Quinn.

 

She is the most popular female character right now and this is not going to be short-term trend.

 

Bat 12 is the big book of the 90's. Nothing is even close anymore.

[joe_collector]

Round and round we go. Here is a gem of a market thread from 2005, with many of the same posters and essentially the exact same arguments.

 

Be sure to read the posts about the impending housing/mortgage/economic crash, which virtually no one took heed of, and which obviously never happened, right?

[originalisbest]

Wait a minute -- you mean my '33 Babe Ruth #181 and '51 Bowman Mantle are destined to become worthless? Rats.

 

Yes, this conversation is obviously about vintage sportscards of genuine legends from the 30's that are destined to be worthless.

 

Cue someone posting the standard "I guess you guys are telling me I should run naked in the streets selling my key GA/SA comics for pennies on the dollar, right?"-type comment.

 

Well done, Captain Obvious -- well done.

[snowman28]

Round and round we go. Here is a gem of a market thread from 2005, with many of the same posters and essentially the exact same arguments.

 

We should have cut and pasted. Would have saved time.

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=708615&fpart=1

 

this is great.

[drbanner]

Round and round we go. Here is a gem of a market thread from 2005, with many of the same posters and essentially the exact same arguments.

 

We should have cut and pasted. Would have saved time.

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=708615&fpart=1

There were so many "Here comes the Crash!" threads in 2002 and 2003 that only the "What is pressing?" threads of 2004+ saved the boards from...wait for it....crashing.

 

Show me this S.A Crash............, etc.,.

 

The reality is that the greatest bull market for keys (and even semi-keys) in the history of the hobby has occurred since the proliferation of those threads, and unfortunately that has put most of the major keys out of reach for most collectors, even in the lowest grades.

[october]

Round and round we go. Here is a gem of a market thread from 2005, with many of the same posters and essentially the exact same arguments.

 

Be sure to read the posts about the impending housing/mortgage/economic crash, which virtually no one took heed of, and which obviously never happened, right?

 

Must have missed those, but I did read the post where I got bombed on for suggesting that the market might improve due to large scale interest in pop culture. Luckily as a young collector I chose to ignore the negativity. One of the best financial....no, THE BEST financial decision I have ever made.

 

 

[paperheart]

i hope key prices hold up for at least another couple of years, maybe that will offset all the paper losses i have on the other high grade slabs i've bought over the past 12 years.

[NewWorldOrder]

Round and round we go. Here is a gem of a market thread from 2005, with many of the same posters and essentially the exact same arguments.

 

Be sure to read the posts about the impending housing/mortgage/economic crash, which virtually no one took heed of, and which obviously never happened, right?

 

Must have missed those, but I did read the post where I got bombed on for suggesting that the market might improve due to large scan interest in pop culture. Luckily as a young collector I chose to ignore the negativity. One of the best financial....no, THE BEST financial decision I have ever made.

 

 

Yup I got that memo as well. (thumbs u