Are key comics good investments?

[delekkerste]

The reality is that the greatest bull market for keys (and even semi-keys) in the history of the hobby has occurred since the proliferation of those threads, and unfortunately that has put most of the major keys out of reach for most collectors, even in the lowest grades.

 

Yup. Comparing the conditions back then to now is like comparing night and day. It's funny how, back in the day, prices were within reach of many, but people thought the prices were crazy. Now, prices are beyond the reach of most, and, yet, most people think they can only go higher. The development of this hobby is just one big S-curve, but people just extrapolate the middle growth section indefinitely into the future. Almost all of them will miss the inevitable inflection point.

 

I'll be the first to admit that my arguments back in the early 2000s was weak and flawed (though, to be fair, I collected Bronze, Copper and Modern books in high grade, most of which did crash). What can I say - I was young, hadn't been serious in the hobby for very long and certainly hadn't developed the analytical skills I have now at that point. If you've followed my thoughts in the Water Cooler investment thread from 2005 to the present, you've seen how my thinking has evolved in real time, as opposed to just taking data points from 2002-05 and 2015 as if nothing has changed in-between. All I would say is that the past is the past - look at the facts where we are today, and make a judgment about the future based on those facts as opposed to just looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming it will be more of the same.

 

In any case, while I didn't invest in comics back then, I think I've managed to do OK for myself over the years.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I'll be the first to admit that my arguments back in the early 2000s was weak and flawed

 

Oh, don't mind me, I'm just saving this for posterity...

 

 

(though, to be fair, I collected Bronze, Copper and Modern books in high grade, most of which did crash).

 

It didn't crash. It was simply a function of the census. The numbers for ultra high grade Bronze, Copper, and Modern from 2005-2008 weren't real (with a few exceptions.) They were artificially driven entirely by low census numbers.

 

Anyone who cashed out in those years got very, very lucky. We are only now just beginning to see the real value of these books over the long term.

 

Those who bought those books (X-Men #120 in 9.8, for example, or DD #168 in 9.8), sorry, but if you got what you wanted, and it made you happy, still money well spent.

[delekkerste]

(though, to be fair, I collected Bronze, Copper and Modern books in high grade, most of which did crash).

 

It didn't crash. It was simply a function of the census. The numbers for ultra high grade Bronze, Copper, and Modern from 2005-2008 weren't real (with a few exceptions.) They were artificially driven entirely by low census numbers.

 

Anyone who cashed out in those years got very, very lucky. We are only now just beginning to see the real value of these books over the long term.

 

Those who bought those books (X-Men #120 in 9.8, for example, or DD #168 in 9.8), sorry, but if you got what you wanted, and it made you happy, still money well spent.

 

What you have described is how and why the crash occurred - artificial prices driven by low census numbers that were found out in the course of time. But, prices going from unreality back to reality is still a crash.

 

I agree with you though - if you got what you wanted and it made you happy, still money well spent. It's not always about the dollars and cents. (thumbs u

 

[Gatsby77]

I can only speak for what I see at shows locally, but the two demographic trends I have noticed the past four years (and posted about several times) are:

 

1) An influx of young collectors in the 12 - 25 year old range that are buying SA, BA, and even GA books.

 

2) The large number of female collectors that have come into the hobby during that period.

 

Now this is likely due to more than just the movies, Marvel Now and New 52 relaunches, and the success of Image in reaching a wider reader audience (for example, high disposable incomes and younger population in Alberta), but it is nice to see nonetheless. Up until 2010 I knew almost every active collector chasing older books and keys (as well as what time to expect them at shows ) as they were the only ones that turned out buy GA/SA/BA. Now, there are new faces popping up at every show. It is great to see.

 

Yes that is what many dealers have been saying as well, but unfortunately when we flat out tell some of these people here in this thread they seem to not soak that in when they skim over our posts.

 

Most only see grey haired collectors for some reason.

 

This bears epeating.

 

Those noting a shrinking collector base of new readers, etc. should note that new comics had the best month in May 2015 that they've had in ~15 years.

 

http://icv2.com/articles/news/view/31800/top-300-comics-actual-may-2015

 

While still not reaching the halcyon days of the early 1990s, last month we had:

 

two comics with orders over 500k

a third with orders over 200k

10 books in all at over 100k each

 

And two of the top 5 books weren't even superhero.

 

Yes -- naysayers will qualify by saying "loot crate," etc. but those numbers are huge, and good for the hobby.

 

I can also tell you my LCS's are all doing far better than they were 5 years ago.

 

[Darkowl]

Round and round we go. Here is a gem of a market thread from 2005, with many of the same posters and essentially the exact same arguments.

 

We should have cut and pasted. Would have saved time.

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=708615&fpart=1

 

This merry-go-round is fascinating.

[revat]

I can only speak for what I see at shows locally, but the two demographic trends I have noticed the past four years (and posted about several times) are:

 

1) An influx of young collectors in the 12 - 25 year old range that are buying SA, BA, and even GA books.

 

2) The large number of female collectors that have come into the hobby during that period.

 

Now this is likely due to more than just the movies, Marvel Now and New 52 relaunches, and the success of Image in reaching a wider reader audience (for example, high disposable incomes and younger population in Alberta), but it is nice to see nonetheless. Up until 2010 I knew almost every active collector chasing older books and keys (as well as what time to expect them at shows ) as they were the only ones that turned out buy GA/SA/BA. Now, there are new faces popping up at every show. It is great to see.

 

Yes that is what many dealers have been saying as well, but unfortunately when we flat out tell some of these people here in this thread they seem to not soak that in when they skim over our posts.

 

Most only see grey haired collectors for some reason.

 

This bears epeating.

 

Those noting a shrinking collector base of new readers, etc. should note that new comics had the best month in May 2015 that they've had in ~15 years.

 

http://icv2.com/articles/news/view/31800/top-300-comics-actual-may-2015

 

While still not reaching the halcyon days of the early 1990s, last month we had:

 

two comics with orders over 500k

a third with orders over 200k

10 books in all at over 100k each

 

And two of the top 5 books weren't even superhero.

 

Yes -- naysayers will qualify by saying "loot crate," etc. but those numbers are huge, and good for the hobby.

 

I can also tell you my LCS's are all doing far better than they were 5 years ago.

 

I agree.

 

Whether or not that translates (eventually) into a continued healthy market for older comics is the question.

[Lazyboy]

I can only speak for what I see at shows locally, but the two demographic trends I have noticed the past four years (and posted about several times) are:

 

1) An influx of young collectors in the 12 - 25 year old range that are buying SA, BA, and even GA books.

 

2) The large number of female collectors that have come into the hobby during that period.

 

Now this is likely due to more than just the movies, Marvel Now and New 52 relaunches, and the success of Image in reaching a wider reader audience (for example, high disposable incomes and younger population in Alberta), but it is nice to see nonetheless. Up until 2010 I knew almost every active collector chasing older books and keys (as well as what time to expect them at shows ) as they were the only ones that turned out buy GA/SA/BA. Now, there are new faces popping up at every show. It is great to see.

 

Yes that is what many dealers have been saying as well, but unfortunately when we flat out tell some of these people here in this thread they seem to not soak that in when they skim over our posts.

 

Most only see grey haired collectors for some reason.

 

This bears epeating.

 

Those noting a shrinking collector base of new readers, etc. should note that new comics had the best month in May 2015 that they've had in ~15 years.

 

http://icv2.com/articles/news/view/31800/top-300-comics-actual-may-2015

 

While still not reaching the halcyon days of the early 1990s, last month we had:

 

two comics with orders over 500k

a third with orders over 200k

10 books in all at over 100k each

 

And two of the top 5 books weren't even superhero.

 

Yes -- naysayers will qualify by saying "loot crate," etc. but those numbers are huge, and good for the hobby.

 

I can also tell you my LCS's are all doing far better than they were 5 years ago.

The top 13 books,and 19 of the top 20, have single-digit issue numbers, mostly #1!

 

Not to mention containing Secret Wars 1 at 500,000 AND Secret Wars 2... at 200,000!

[RockMyAmadeus]

(though, to be fair, I collected Bronze, Copper and Modern books in high grade, most of which did crash).

 

It didn't crash. It was simply a function of the census. The numbers for ultra high grade Bronze, Copper, and Modern from 2005-2008 weren't real (with a few exceptions.) They were artificially driven entirely by low census numbers.

 

Anyone who cashed out in those years got very, very lucky. We are only now just beginning to see the real value of these books over the long term.

 

Those who bought those books (X-Men #120 in 9.8, for example, or DD #168 in 9.8), sorry, but if you got what you wanted, and it made you happy, still money well spent.

 

What you have described is how and why the crash occurred - artificial prices driven by low census numbers that were found out in the course of time. But, prices going from unreality back to reality is still a crash.

 

It wasn't a crash. A crash is driven by panic, and is almost always (if not always) predicated by a speculative bubble. That was not the case at all in the "ultra high grade 1970-up" comics market of 2005-2009.

 

Demand didn't decrease: on the contrary, it has increased substantially. However...that increased demand couldn't even remotely keep track of the massive increase in supply of these formerly "rare" items, and they have floated down to where they initially should have been in the first place.

 

That's not a crash, per se; it's a correction, in the most proper sense of that word.

 

Read here:

 

http://www.nationalsilverdollarroundtable.org/?p=920

 

Anyone with any experience in other markets saw this coming. I've been talking about it here since at least 2008, and elsewhere for longer than that.

 

[delekkerste]

That's not a crash, per se; it's a correction, in the most proper sense of that word.

 

We can respectfully disagree on what to call it, but we do agree that prices went from point A (higher) to point B (lower), which was the point I was trying to make.

[Mmehdy]

It is balanced. Unfortunately it shows why the hobby must grow tons or face a crash. There are many collectors on these boards who have been assembling these collections for decades. Upper middle class or lower upper class who have put tens of thousands of dollars into it over the last twenty years. These collections are now worth hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars. How many collectors are needed for each of these collections if they spend even twice yearly what the original collectors did? 50? Is there really going to be 50 collectors coming in for each collector who dies or sells out in retirement? And that's to maintain the value. Twice that if prices keep going up as fast as they have. Right now these prices have been kept high by speculators convinced that these prices will continue at these astronomical rates. In the future? I'm not so sure.

 

Exactly. It's not even enough that future generations of collectors have to replace the older generations in terms of numbers. No, given that almost all the collections out there will eventually be sold (as opposed to sold, donated, etc. in, say, the fine art world), nearly all the books currently owned by the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers will turn over in the marketplace at least once in the next, say, 30 years. And, as you pointed out, these collections are now worth orders of magnitude than they used to be - and people think these prices will keep on rising for years to come. So, the next generation of collectors will have to have the resources to be able to clear the market for ALL these books (because eventually the rest of the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers will drop out of buying and will sell) at all-time high future prices. They simply won't have either the numbers or the financial resources. It's simple math, folks. A few young and women collectors buying books in Alberta isn't going to change this fact (sorry, Ryan) - the plural of anecdote isn't evidence.

 

And, all due respect to Aman, but the small numbers argument won't work here. First, the hobby isn't all that small. Second, you have to look at it from a Bayesian probability perspective - start with the populations of the previous generations and look at the probability/conversion rates of people who became collectors. Now apply that to the younger generations and all the probability nodes have become tiny fractions of what they once were with peoples' interests splintered in so many directions over the past 20 years and it's just not going to happen. I've seen arguments like this (e.g., if emerging markets consumers use even 25% of the oil that Americans do, then oil prices will be $300/bbl.! if even 1 in 20 Chinese people uses Crest toothpaste, P&G's stock price will soar!, etc.) These top-down arguments sound seductive to those who are looking for a reason to believe, but they rarely/never come true because the premise is horribly flawed upon closer inspection. I'll take the other side of that bet all day long and twice on Sunday.

 

At the end of the day, it's a prayer vs. math. Always bet on math.

 

It's been almost seven years since the last stock market and real estate crash. When will the next one be? Many of us lost 40% or more in our 401k "investments", and many more were left holding the bag with their real estate "investments".

 

Seven years later the real estate market is still recovering, slowly, and stocks are giddy again in some sectors I guess. Quite a number of my larger position stocks still haven't gotten back to the price they were years ago. I have no control over what they will do, or won't do.

 

Yet, my collection is worth many times more now than it was seven years ago.

 

However, one person, or a very small group of people in comics can control what the market does for select issues or titles. Comic art is very similar.

 

I have to disagree on "comic art". You are not competing with 50 other action#1 coming on the market. You own the one and only unique piece....all markets are subject to manipulation...but if you own that piece art.....then you control that piece.

[delekkerste]

The top 13 books,and 19 of the top 20, have single-digit issue numbers, mostly #1!

 

Not to mention containing Secret Wars 1 at 500,000 AND Secret Wars 2... at 200,000!

 

Yah. Just look at the median sales for the top 100 - about 38K copies.

[Mmehdy]

The current comic book commodity market cannot be "shorted" either like oil.... we all know, like any widget ( slabbed book) that are treated like"cattle" the investor loses respect for the item it self. That what makes me so mad...that these speculators don't appreciate comic book collecting as a true "art" but for 10% per year.

 

I know that that the new and current GA reprints have cut some demand for the GA books, that is the good thing to come out of this, that the art will not be lost and can someday be brought up on a I-pad.

 

But the price manipulation cannot last forever...with veteran collectors like me saying enough is enough, Gene using the charts....we are headed for a serious correction which is gonna effect a lot people, a number of collectors losing faith and some turning their back on the comic book market forever.

 

I would restrict my Key buying to unrestored books as well, with the big big loses coming on restored books where demand is going to decrease the most, if you have nonessential books or dupes..put them up on the Big 3 while the wave is cresting.

[thehumantorch]

I can only speak for what I see at shows locally, but the two demographic trends I have noticed the past four years (and posted about several times) are:

 

1) An influx of young collectors in the 12 - 25 year old range that are buying SA, BA, and even GA books.

 

2) The large number of female collectors that have come into the hobby during that period.

 

Now this is likely due to more than just the movies, Marvel Now and New 52 relaunches, and the success of Image in reaching a wider reader audience (for example, high disposable incomes and younger population in Alberta), but it is nice to see nonetheless. Up until 2010 I knew almost every active collector chasing older books and keys (as well as what time to expect them at shows ) as they were the only ones that turned out buy GA/SA/BA. Now, there are new faces popping up at every show. It is great to see.

 

 

 

Yes that is what many dealers have been saying as well, but unfortunately when we flat out tell some of these people here in this thread they seem to not soak that in when they skim over our posts.

 

Most only see grey haired collectors for some reason.

 

This bears epeating.

 

Those noting a shrinking collector base of new readers, etc. should note that new comics had the best month in May 2015 that they've had in ~15 years.

 

http://icv2.com/articles/news/view/31800/top-300-comics-actual-may-2015

 

While still not reaching the halcyon days of the early 1990s, last month we had:

 

two comics with orders over 500k

a third with orders over 200k

10 books in all at over 100k each

 

And two of the top 5 books weren't even superhero.

 

Yes -- naysayers will qualify by saying "loot crate," etc. but those numbers are huge, and good for the hobby.

 

I can also tell you my LCS's are all doing far better than they were 5 years ago.

 

Kimik is correct, lots of new and young and female buyers at our booth. Most are buying books to read or the first appearance of their favorite character. Most are not dropping hundreds of $$ on a single book.

 

How many will make the transition from a quaint, old school purchase, to hard core, full banana collector is hard to predict.

 

Kimik also mentioned the older buyers we saw at every show. They're still around but there's also a new breed of 'mature' collectors. Guys in their 30s and perhaps 40s who're investing or getting into the hobby.

 

Great sales at shows, LCS doing well. It's all great but temporary. Always pay attention to the long term trend. Online distribution of content is replacing physical distribution. I don't know when but I'm absolutely sure that print media is dying and comic sales will shrink and with it the back issue collector population.

[musicmeta]

If the hobby is so doomed as some people feel is it not completely selfish to be doing anything other than listing all of your books for sale right now? Why spend time posting on the doomed future while sitting on a collection?

 

Because you are a COLLECTOR who ENJOYS his comics?

 

I was buying, reading and collecting 70's comics when 99.99999% of them were worth absolutely nothing, and I will continue to appreciate them if they turn out to be worth nothing going forward.

 

I just like collecting comics, it's my H-O-B-B-Y.

 

If all you see when you look at your comics is $$$$ then I highly recommend you sell them off now and invest in something income-producing, like blue chip stocks, and stop fooling yourself. It's quite obvious there are dark days coming for funny books, probably in the next 10-20 years.

 

Exactly. Not everybody views their collection as a 401(k) plan, and I feel sad for those who do. I enjoy my collection for what it is, even if I fully expect it will cost me a lot of money in opportunity cost, if not outright losses, in the fullness of time (it's doing fine now, sure, but I intended to hold and enjoy my collection for decades, by which time I am confident this hobby will have fallen off a generational cliff). I understand the trade-off and am OK with it. Every piece I buy for my collection I assume I will lose money on. I never assume that "at least I will be able to get my money out". I never assume that offers I get on certain pieces have any lifespan beyond the immediate. I don't assume that the next generation of collectors will love what I own as much as I do. How could they? Did they ride their bikes to 7-11 and pick up the latest issue of Uncanny X-Men off the newsstand for 60 cents back when there were a minuscule amount of entertainment options vs. today? The very thought that the next generation will have the knowledge, experience, interest and resources to match my generation is nothing short of preposterous.

 

I've got enough socked away elsewhere that I can afford to take a big financial hit on my hobby and still be fine. Anyone who can't say the same probably has too much invested in their collection.

 

As the posts stated above it's a hobby and you shouldn't be counting on your comic collection to help fund your retirement. At least I don't. Great, when I retire and my comic collection value has gone up but I can honestly say, if I couldn't get one thin dime for my entire comic collection it wouldn't hurt me a bit financially as I'm totally looking elsewhere for my retirement needs.

Ride this wave of comic prosperity but it will end soon enough.

[Gatsby77]

 

Yah. Just look at the median sales for the top 100 - about 38K copies.

 

Yes, but that median's actually stayed fairly constant over the last 15 years. What's significant is the additional increase at the top.

 

May 2015

 

Top book: 528k

Books above 100k: 10

Median book: 38k

 

May 2010

 

Top book: 164k

Books above 100k: 5

Median book: 38k

 

May 2005

 

Top book: 168k

Books above 100k: 4

Median book: 38k

 

May 2001 (since ICv2 doesn't go back to 2000):

 

Top book: 136k

Books above 100k: 2

Median book: 28k

[piper]

I can only speak for what I see at shows locally, but the two demographic trends I have noticed the past four years (and posted about several times) are:

 

1) An influx of young collectors in the 12 - 25 year old range that are buying SA, BA, and even GA books.

 

2) The large number of female collectors that have come into the hobby during that period.

 

Now this is likely due to more than just the movies, Marvel Now and New 52 relaunches, and the success of Image in reaching a wider reader audience (for example, high disposable incomes and younger population in Alberta), but it is nice to see nonetheless. Up until 2010 I knew almost every active collector chasing older books and keys (as well as what time to expect them at shows ) as they were the only ones that turned out buy GA/SA/BA. Now, there are new faces popping up at every show. It is great to see.

 

 

 

Yes that is what many dealers have been saying as well, but unfortunately when we flat out tell some of these people here in this thread they seem to not soak that in when they skim over our posts.

 

Most only see grey haired collectors for some reason.

 

This bears epeating.

 

Those noting a shrinking collector base of new readers, etc. should note that new comics had the best month in May 2015 that they've had in ~15 years.

 

http://icv2.com/articles/news/view/31800/top-300-comics-actual-may-2015

 

While still not reaching the halcyon days of the early 1990s, last month we had:

 

two comics with orders over 500k

a third with orders over 200k

10 books in all at over 100k each

 

And two of the top 5 books weren't even superhero.

 

Yes -- naysayers will qualify by saying "loot crate," etc. but those numbers are huge, and good for the hobby.

 

I can also tell you my LCS's are all doing far better than they were 5 years ago.

 

Kimik is correct, lots of new and young and female buyers at our booth. Most are buying books to read or the first appearance of their favorite character. Most are not dropping hundreds of $$ on a single book.

 

How many will make the transition from a quaint, old school purchase, to hard core, full banana collector is hard to predict.

 

Kimik also mentioned the older buyers we saw at every show. They're still around but there's also a new breed of 'mature' collectors. Guys in their 30s and perhaps 40s who're investing or getting into the hobby.

 

Great sales at shows, LCS doing well. It's all great but temporary. Always pay attention to the long term trend. Online distribution of content is replacing physical distribution. I don't know when but I'm absolutely sure that print media is dying and comic sales will shrink and with it the back issue collector population.

 

I'm not so sure about print dying just yet. Omnibuses, compilations and TPBa are very popular now. Most of my modern reading is via these not monthly floppies.

[drbanner]

Yes, but that median's actually stayed fairly constant over the last 15 years. What's significant is the additional increase at the top.

 

May 2015

 

Top book: 528k

Books above 100k: 10

Median book: 38k

 

May 2010

 

Top book: 164k

Books above 100k: 5

Median book: 38k

 

May 2005

 

Top book: 168k

Books above 100k: 4

Median book: 38k

 

May 2001 (since ICv2 doesn't go back to 2000):

 

Top book: 136k

Books above 100k: 2

Median book: 28k

Wow, that's a pretty big jump...what are total sales/circulation figures?

[NewWorldOrder]

That's not a crash, per se; it's a correction, in the most proper sense of that word.

 

We can respectfully disagree on what to call it, but we do agree that prices went from point A (higher) to point B (lower), which was the point I was trying to make.

 

Gene I can't believe you are making side with RMA on this topic.

 

You said crash. A crash did not happen is what RMA is saying and I agree with.

 

I think we can all agree the person who the buys the first anything always wastes the most money 99% of the time.

 

Technology gadgets especially.

[NewWorldOrder]

The top 13 books,and 19 of the top 20, have single-digit issue numbers, mostly #1!

 

Not to mention containing Secret Wars 1 at 500,000 AND Secret Wars 2... at 200,000!

 

Yah. Just look at the median sales for the top 100 - about 38K copies.

 

Yes but more and more people are buying TPB's which is the trend that should and makes sense to happen in the future. The mixing of online comics purchases is a trend I used to fear, but now I welcome it with open arms. Gets these people hooked by any means necessary and your old vintage comics will be around for a very long time.

 

Buying new comics is too expensive and since they mostly will have little or no value after you buy them TPBs are the way to go.

[rjrjr]

The top 13 books,and 19 of the top 20, have single-digit issue numbers, mostly #1!

 

Not to mention containing Secret Wars 1 at 500,000 AND Secret Wars 2... at 200,000!

 

Yah. Just look at the median sales for the top 100 - about 38K copies.

 

Yes but more and more people are buying TPB's which is the trend that should and makes sense to happen in the future. The mixing of online comics purchases is a trend I used to fear, but now I welcome it with open arms. Gets these people hooked by any means necessary and your old vintage comics will be around for a very long time.

 

Buying new comics is too expensive and since they mostly will have little or no value after you buy them TPBs are the way to go.

 

But the numbers don't support this. TPB sales have flat lined several years back and are not increasing. Digital sales have also flat lined.