Are key comics good investments?

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

Pop culture media controls the upswing of books more than investors of what you are referring to.

 

For Keys? I just don't see it. How many people ran out and bought an AF15 because they liked the new Spider-Man movie?

 

For the book of the month club flippers riding the movie gossip scree on books like Power Man & Iron Fist #54? (I'm laughing because I was just discussing the wild ride this book has had with someone here who was reviewing GPA data.) Sure, I see that every day.

 

 

[NewWorldOrder]

Pop culture media controls the upswing of books more than investors of what you are referring to.

 

For Keys? I just don't see it. How many people ran out and bought an AF15 because they liked the new Spider-Man movie?

 

For the book of the month club flippers riding the movie gossip scree on books like Power Man & Iron Fist #54? (I'm laughing because I was just discussing the wild ride this book has had with someone here who was reviewing GPA data.) Sure, I see that every day.

 

 

I don't know but I sell to all ages of newcomers monthly for what I would consider vintage books.

 

Just like drugs something is a gate way to wanting you to own a 1st appearance of the character you love.

 

The problem with this topic is I just don't have the want or time to write paragraph after paragraph explaining my thoughts anymore.

 

I just can't see the downside to owning the major keys in this hobby and holding onto them. Most of them will either slowly creep up 5-10% per year or stay relatively the same.

 

Anything good happen of course, but unless the apocalypse happens we all should be fine.

[HouseofComics.Com]

What will the future of comic collecting look like in twenty or thirty years? I can definitely spin a scenario that for the sub-$100 comics it will look fairly much like it looks today. (I understand that's not the original point of this thread, but demographics and the future has come up a lot in this thread and this is where the active conversation is right now on the boards.)

 

The reason I can see things holding somewhat steady is because at those kinds of prices, fifty cents, three dollars, ten dollars, maybe one hundred dollars, the item is still somewhat close to it's fair or intrinsic or historical value. It's not hard to sell $10 or $15 golden age books (crime, adventure, humor, whatever) as people feel that's a fair price because it's old.

 

And the reason why I think a market can continue steadily for that stuff is that we're probably heading towards a society with more leisure time--more and more things are becoming automated and eventually we're going to have to share the work and a lot of people will be working part-time instead of full-time. They will have enough time to read and research and have fun and they will have at least some disposable income. The affordable comics hobby is waiting for them and I think endlessly interesting.

 

It's been said that there are 200,000 comic collectors and how hard can it be to come up with a new 200,000 people as populations and populations of English-speakers keep growing and while the internet provides not only easy entry for learning about the hobby but also super easy buying at affordable prices?

 

Of course the average person isn't going to become interested, but is it that hard to imagine a more leisurely society where some small pct of the overall pop. can gravitate to this stuff? Especially when you only need to replace a very small number of actual collectors.

 

Note that I'm not saying this is going to cause prices to rise, just that I think this hobby can bump along for a good long while. Especially with companies like Disney involved and geek culture here to stay.

 

Put up a few charismatic people online, with followers, showing how to collect comics and I can see it becoming a thing among a new 100,000 members of the general public.

 

[NewWorldOrder]

What will the future of comic collecting look like in twenty or thirty years? I can definitely spin a scenario that for the sub-$100 comics it will look fairly much like it looks today. (I understand that's not the original point of this thread, but demographics and the future has come up a lot in this thread and this is where the active conversation is right now on the boards.)

 

The reason I can see things holding somewhat steady is because at those kinds of prices, fifty cents, three dollars, ten dollars, maybe one hundred dollars, the item is still somewhat close to it's fair or intrinsic or historical value. It's not hard to sell $10 or $15 golden age books (crime, adventure, humor, whatever) as people feel that's a fair price because it's old.

 

And the reason why I think a market can continue steadily for that stuff is that we're probably heading towards a society with more leisure time--more and more things are becoming automated and eventually we're going to have to share the work and a lot of people will be working part-time instead of full-time. They will have enough time to read and research and have fun and they will have at least some disposable income. The affordable comics hobby is waiting for them and I think endlessly interesting.

 

It's been said that there are 200,000 comic collectors and how hard can it be to come up with a new 200,000 people as populations and populations of English-speakers keep growing and while the internet provides not only easy entry for learning about the hobby but also super easy buying at affordable prices?

 

Of course the average person isn't going to become interested, but is it that hard to imagine a more leisurely society where some small pct of the overall pop. can gravitate to this stuff? Especially when you only need to replace a very small number of actual collectors.

 

Note that I'm not saying this is going to cause prices to rise, just that I think this hobby can bump along for a good long while. Especially with companies like Disney involved and geek culture here to stay.

 

Put up a few charismatic people online, with followers, showing how to collect comics and I can see it becoming a thing among a new 100,000 members of the general public.

 

You wrote what I was thinking and didn't want to. (thumbs u

 

Disney buying Marvel Comics was the best dividend check our hobby has ever seen.

 

As long as the kids today know who these characters are in some media pop culture form a certain % of them will gravitate to buying important comics. That will not change next year or 400 years from now.

 

People will want to own what they like. If they are a big Deadpool fan they will more than likely at some point of their life gravitate to buying key Deadpool issues.

 

I am seeing some of over 40 friends in this hobby still believing that little Jimmy must pick up new comics or this hobby is over which is dead wrong. As long as the kids pick up the comic character in some form that is key for our keys to be strong.

 

[HouseofComics.Com]

Note that these new collectors will not have the personal nostalgia factor--they will be more coming at the items for the underlying art and stories or historical interest.

 

To use one example, supplies of low grade golden age books are pretty small. I don't care if you can find five copies of it online right now, your average dealer doesn't have it, it's probably not in the room even at big regional shows, and your local stores don't have it. It won't need that many new collectors to keep the demand side balanced with supply.

 

 

[NewWorldOrder]

Note that these new collectors will not have the personal nostalgia factor--they will be more coming at the items for the underlying art and stories or historical interest.

 

 

 

 

I see what you are saying, but all of the books in my personal collection I did not grow up with as a kid. All the comics I grew up were just a gateway drug to the good stuff from the characters I was first introduced to in the 1990's such ad Spider-man, X-men, Hulk etc.

 

I grew up in the 1990's so besides pre-unity Valiant that whole decade of comics belongs in the trash.

 

Again I get that myself reading new comics was the best and most direct route to the older vintage books, however with the internet I am seeing kids today finding the outlet to learn where their favorite Superhero characters came from much quicker which will lead a certain % of them into the vintage hobby. Nothing different than my generation. Some loved the characters when they were kids and will watch the movies now as a quick 2 hour fun entertainment while others such as all of us here took it a step further.

[drbanner]

Agreed. I haven't read this thread completely, so it may have been mentioned; but "sideline" money looking for a return may have played a fairly large role in recent price appreciation. Investors were being coached to put their money into key comics - keys being seen as stable and having a decent ROI.

 

These investors view comics like stock. They could care less about the book, it's the return that's important. As the economy improves and the Fed raises rates, I think comics will look a lot less attractive to these investors and they'll sell with impunity to buy other more attractive investments. And, of course, if these investors are significant, key comic supply will increase and prices will drop. How much is anyone's guess.

I sort of doubt anyone keeping their money on the "sidelines" and out of the stock market the last few years would be willing to buy collectibles with that money unless they were already collectors. Frankly, if these comic-book-dis-interested investors weren't in the stock market the last 7-8 years, they missed out on one of (the?) biggest bull stock markets in history. If they were "coached" into putting their money into key comic books, I doubt it was by investment professionals, but no doubt Vinnie Z and others were coaching them in that direction.

 

Key comics have been a good investment vehicle during this time, but there's no way the next 7-8 years will see the same appreciation.

[VintageComics]

Deflation and inflation will also affect collectibles markets.

 

We've been in a deflationary economy for so long that people are tired of just having their money sit in the bank at zero to no interest or their retirements wiped out.

 

Agreed. I haven't read this thread completely, so it may have been mentioned; but "sideline" money looking for a return may have played a fairly large role in recent price appreciation. Investors were being coached to put their money into key comics - keys being seen as stable and having a decent ROI.

 

These investors view comics like stock. They could care less about the book, it's the return that's important. As the economy improves and the Fed raises rates, I think comics will look a lot less attractive to these investors and they'll sell with impunity to buy other more attractive investments. And, of course, if these investors are significant, key comic supply will increase and prices will drop. How much is anyone's guess.

 

Movies, movies, movies, and add some Netflix. Lets see what happens when that merry go round stops. That is the real question.

 

Pop culture media controls the upswing of books more than investors of what you are referring to.

 

I think we over estimate the investors who blindly take extra money and buy books they have no interest in.

 

It is now 2015 we need to all stop thinking that nothing in our economy has since recovered. Everyone in my college class of friends are all living the American Dream. Making more $ and living good.

 

 

 

 

Your view is very comic-centric but other collectible markets have also exploded and they have nothing to do with movies or pop-culture.

 

For example, I've loosely followed the automotive market for a long time and have always wanted a mid 1980's Porsche 911 Turbo (930 model). That car, in decent shape could be had for about $30-35K forever.

 

It's now grown into a 6 figure car. Yes, a mid 1980's car that nearly nobody wanted and used to sell for the price of a minivan is now fetching $100-150K which is what new cars sell for. Why? Possibly because lots of young guys with money pouring their money into things they like AND that they feel have more stability than banks and stocks.

 

And it's not just happening with Porsches, it's happening across the board to many cars.

 

And no Netflix shows or movies are driving them.

 

The only reason I can explain his happening is the dynamics of this economy. People are buying into hard assets.

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

Agreed. I haven't read this thread completely, so it may have been mentioned; but "sideline" money looking for a return may have played a fairly large role in recent price appreciation. Investors were being coached to put their money into key comics - keys being seen as stable and having a decent ROI.

 

These investors view comics like stock. They could care less about the book, it's the return that's important. As the economy improves and the Fed raises rates, I think comics will look a lot less attractive to these investors and they'll sell with impunity to buy other more attractive investments. And, of course, if these investors are significant, key comic supply will increase and prices will drop. How much is anyone's guess.

I sort of doubt anyone keeping their money on the "sidelines" and out of the stock market the last few years would be willing to buy collectibles with that money unless they were already collectors. Frankly, if these comic-book-dis-interested investors weren't in the stock market the last 7-8 years, they missed out on one of (the?) biggest bull stock markets in history. If they were "coached" into putting their money into key comic books, I doubt it was by investment professionals, but no doubt Vinnie Z and others were coaching them in that direction.

 

Key comics have been a good investment vehicle during this time, but there's no way the next 7-8 years will see the same appreciation.

 

You'd be surprised I think. I've been watching investment professionals tout comics for a long time now. Google comic books as investments and you'll see what I mean. These weren't just comic lovers blogging away about the stuff they love; it was professionals as well, talking about excellent long-term returns. These reports were eventually picked up and reported on by CNN Money, Yahoo Finance and a host others.

 

But there was a barrier to entry. To my knowledge, there's nothing in the comic world like a REIT, where the investor just buys shares and lets the experts buy and sell the property. Comic investors had to get their hands dirty, and as everyone knows, there's a steep learning curve to any collectibles market. So I think you're right about most of these investors being collectors (or at least glancingly aware of the hobby beforehand); but because of necessity rather than desire.

 

Here's a CNN Money video from August of last year as an example. And yes, Vinnie Z is in it.

 

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2014/08/22/business-of-buying-comics.cnnmoney/index.html

[retrothecollector]

Awesome video. Thanks for sharing.

[NewWorldOrder]

Deflation and inflation will also affect collectibles markets.

 

We've been in a deflationary economy for so long that people are tired of just having their money sit in the bank at zero to no interest or their retirements wiped out.

 

Agreed. I haven't read this thread completely, so it may have been mentioned; but "sideline" money looking for a return may have played a fairly large role in recent price appreciation. Investors were being coached to put their money into key comics - keys being seen as stable and having a decent ROI.

 

These investors view comics like stock. They could care less about the book, it's the return that's important. As the economy improves and the Fed raises rates, I think comics will look a lot less attractive to these investors and they'll sell with impunity to buy other more attractive investments. And, of course, if these investors are significant, key comic supply will increase and prices will drop. How much is anyone's guess.

 

Movies, movies, movies, and add some Netflix. Lets see what happens when that merry go round stops. That is the real question.

 

Pop culture media controls the upswing of books more than investors of what you are referring to.

 

I think we over estimate the investors who blindly take extra money and buy books they have no interest in.

 

It is now 2015 we need to all stop thinking that nothing in our economy has since recovered. Everyone in my college class of friends are all living the American Dream. Making more $ and living good.

 

 

 

 

Your view is very comic-centric but other collectible markets have also exploded and they have nothing to do with movies or pop-culture.

 

For example, I've loosely followed the automotive market for a long time and have always wanted a mid 1980's Porsche 911 Turbo (930 model). That car, in decent shape could be had for about $30-35K forever.

 

It's now grown into a 6 figure car. Yes, a mid 1980's car that nearly nobody wanted and used to sell for the price of a minivan is now fetching $100-150K which is what new cars sell for. Why? Possibly because lots of young guys with money pouring their money into things they like AND that they feel have more stability than banks and stocks.

 

And it's not just happening with Porsches, it's happening across the board to many cars.

 

And no Netflix shows or movies are driving them.

 

The only reason I can explain his happening is the dynamics of this economy. People are buying into hard assets.

 

Are you saying the economy is still recovering?

 

That ship arrived a couple years ago.

[Gatsby77]

My read wasn't that "the economy is still recovering" but that collectibles are up across the board, regardless of the the movie hype that seems to be driving key appreciation in the comic world.

 

I'd agree with that -- if you invested in non-movie driven Silver & Bronze keys four years ago (i.e., Daredevil 1, ASM 129, House Secrets 92, Marvel Spotlight 5, Hulk 1, etc.) you've done well.

[Lazyboy]

Note that these new collectors will not have the personal nostalgia factor--they will be more coming at the items for the underlying art and stories or historical interest.

 

 

 

 

I see what you are saying, but all of the books in my personal collection I did not grow up with as a kid. All the comics I grew up were just a gateway drug to the good stuff from the characters I was first introduced to in the 1990's such ad Spider-man, X-men, Hulk etc.

 

I grew up in the 1990's so besides pre-unity Valiant that whole decade of comics belongs in the trash.

 

Fixed.

 

Again I get that myself reading new comics was the best and most direct route to the older vintage books, however with the internet I am seeing kids today finding the outlet to learn where their favorite Superhero characters came from much quicker which will lead a certain % of them into the vintage hobby. Nothing different than my generation. Some loved the characters when they were kids and will watch the movies now as a quick 2 hour fun entertainment while others such as all of us here took it a step further.

 

Well, it's true that 0.0000000001% is a percentage...

[kimik]

My read wasn't that "the economy is still recovering" but that collectibles are up across the board, regardless of the the movie hype that seems to be driving key appreciation in the comic world.

 

I'd agree with that -- if you invested in non-movie driven Silver & Bronze keys four years ago (i.e., Daredevil 1, ASM 129, House Secrets 92, Marvel Spotlight 5, Hulk 1, etc.) you've done well.

 

Picking up DC SA & BA keys will do the same for the next 2 - 3 years. (thumbs u

[Mmehdy]

I think the message here, that I and other experienced collectors are saying is plain and simple.

 

Buy SAFE and SANE. just don't get caught up in a bidding war on the "hype" 9.8 as opposed to 9.6( very little difference). Second, the word "key" is not what it used to be....that is a top 20 book or even a top 50 book. I guess we could call them "mega" keys as opposed to regular keys...it does not matter. Do not buy the keys just to make money. Chances are even if the book goes up, the auction house is gonna take 20% right off the top. Buy the comic FOR the comic book...CGC or not. Because you love or appreciate it...something that will make you collection special.

 

The speculators are trying to take the "fun" out of collecting...and turn it into charts, stats and profit. I truly hope they do not win out. The census is not a fixed or a reliable way to make an investment...just a head ups to let you know WHAT IS KNOWN as of today. Well, this is what I know, the very old school collectors have NOT graded their books. They still like to touch and feel them. When those collectors come to the CGC and the auction houses...then we can call this a census to rely upon...probably 15 years.

 

Safe and sane buying brings up back to a stable and continued growth with a real basis of increase in value.I look forward to the times ahead.. This truly is the "golden age" of reprints which make this great material available even to me.

 

I believe everybody on this fourm is a serious comic book or true comic book collector and 98% care about the future of collecting and the respect we have fought very hard to obtain. The speculators, fliipers who are looking for a quick buck if it is silver, corn or comics will leave down the road. It is the damage that they do, and leave which is of great concern for all of US going forward in the comic book collecting world.

[VintageComics]

 

Are you saying the economy is still recovering?

 

That ship arrived a couple years ago.

 

In my opinion, the only reason the economy is 'recovering' is because the US government has poured billions of dollars into the US economy AND managed to keep interest rates down.

 

But that has also forced people to diversify and pour money into commodities (as well as stocks) and keep those prices afloat because anybody with money to invest did not leave it sitting in a bank account collecting zero interest.

 

I don't think there has been a true recovery. I'll believe that when I see interest rates rise and watch to see if the economy continues to chug along.

 

 

[NewWorldOrder]

 

Are you saying the economy is still recovering?

 

That ship arrived a couple years ago.

 

In my opinion, the only reason the economy is 'recovering' is because the US government has poured billions of dollars into the US economy AND managed to keep interest rates down.

 

But that has also forced people to diversify and pour money into commodities (as well as stocks) and keep those prices afloat because anybody with money to invest did not leave it sitting in a bank account collecting zero interest.

 

I don't think there has been a true recovery. I'll believe that when I see interest rates rise and watch to see if the economy continues to chug along.

 

 

Some would counter that when interest rates rise investing in stocks can be less attractive.

 

In the the comic book market we are in a bull session. So I want nothing to change.

[drbanner]

In my opinion, the only reason the economy is 'recovering' is because the US government has poured billions of dollars into the US economy AND managed to keep interest rates down.

Isn't that sort of like saying the only reason you got rid of that infection is because you took antibiotics?

 

There's a huge game-changer that has affected the US economy the last 5 years that has been one of the reasons why inflation has been kept in check (allowing interest rates to remain low) that everyone seems to be forgetting.

 

In 2014, the US became the world's largest producer of oil, lowering the price of oil, gasoline, raw materials, and the transportation costs associated with, well, everything. In addition to Shale Oil (and gas), the US is just now opening up leases to some of the largest oil reserves under Federal jurisdiction (Federal waters off the North Slope of Alaska). And on top of traditional fossil fuels, 2014 also saw a huge jump in the generation of renewable energy (wind, solar, biofuels).

 

Cheap energy makes everything cheaper, and it has changed the landscape of the US economy drastically since the housing crash.

[Peter G]

I think the message here, that I and other experienced collectors are saying is plain and simple.

 

Buy SAFE and SANE. just don't get caught up in a bidding war on the "hype" 9.8 as opposed to 9.6( very little difference). Second, the word "key" is not what it used to be....that is a top 20 book or even a top 50 book. I guess we could call them "mega" keys as opposed to regular keys...it does not matter. Do not buy the keys just to make money. Chances are even if the book goes up, the auction house is gonna take 20% right off the top. Buy the comic FOR the comic book...CGC or not. Because you love or appreciate it...something that will make you collection special.

 

The speculators are trying to take the "fun" out of collecting...and turn it into charts, stats and profit. I truly hope they do not win out. The census is not a fixed or a reliable way to make an investment...just a head ups to let you know WHAT IS KNOWN as of today. Well, this is what I know, the very old school collectors have NOT graded their books. They still like to touch and feel them. When those collectors come to the CGC and the auction houses...then we can call this a census to rely upon...probably 15 years.

 

Safe and sane buying brings up back to a stable and continued growth with a real basis of increase in value.I look forward to the times ahead.. This truly is the "golden age" of reprints which make this great material available even to me.

 

I believe everybody on this fourm is a serious comic book or true comic book collector and 98% care about the future of collecting and the respect we have fought very hard to obtain. The speculators, fliipers who are looking for a quick buck if it is silver, corn or comics will leave down the road. It is the damage that they do, and leave which is of great concern for all of US going forward in the comic book collecting world.

 

We have to wait 15 years to see these pedigree books ? sigh

[Sqeggs]

The only reason I can explain his happening is the dynamics of this economy. People are buying into hard assets.

 

When you buy a share of Apple or some other stock, you are getting a share of a company with assets that can generate income, which is likely to grow over time. You are also buying an asset that can be easily sold with a small transaction cost.

 

When you buy a collectible car or a comic, you are buying an asset that generates zero income and can be sold only with a hefty transaction cost.

 

If you are correct and people who would otherwise have been investing in financial assets have been investing in collectibles instead, then they have taken on enormous risk. Granted many collectibles have had a tremendous run, but ... you know the rest of the story!