GPA vs Real Life: What gives?

[Randall Ries]

I have a question for the knowledgeable. For example, a Detective #400 cgc 9.6 is being sold for $3,000 or so on ebay. However, the actual GPA sales average reflects sales around $800. Another example: Detective #395 cgc 9.4 for sale @ $3,000. Mass. copy. Actual sales reflect between $600-$800 for the issue in grade. What gives? If I make an offer reflecting actual sales data, they get rejected quickly. Are people really shelling out $3,000 for an $800 book? And if so, why aren't these huge sales being reflected in the average that makes up the GPA?

[jimjum12]

I have a question for the knowledgeable. For example, a Detective #400 cgc 9.6 is being sold for $3,000 or so on ebay. However, the actual GPA sales average reflects sales around $800. Another example: Detective #395 cgc 9.4 for sale @ $3,000. Mass. copy. Actual sales reflect between $600-$800 for the issue in grade. What gives? If I make an offer reflecting actual sales data, they get rejected quickly. Are people really shelling out $3,000 for an $800 book? And if so, why aren't these huge sales being reflected in the average that makes up the GPA?

 

....eBay is home to the highest prices in the known Universe. Many of those books are likely favorites for the sellers and only just barely for sale..... listed at prices that they would be stupid not to accept, but basically ensconced in their collections for the immediate and realistic future. As for GPA, many sales are not reported to them, a primary example being Comic Link. Many record prices are realized for SA and BA in their auctions. For example, I was recently outbid on a CGC 9.4 Detective 400 at the $ 800 level (it was a pretty 9.4) in a Comic Link Auction. A 9.6 for $ 800 seems like a bargain..... what was the date and venue of that sale? GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Randall Ries]

The last recorded GPA sale for a 'Tec 400 9.4 was $777 in May 2015. The last recorded GPA sale for a 9.6 was $825 in July 2014. These prices are reasonable. A sale for the Don Rosa 9.6 was $3500 in June 2008. The 9.6 I cited was not a pedigree book. In fact, the prices for this book have been declining.

 

2014

 

(1) $825Hi

 

2013

 

(1) $1,258Hi

 

2011

 

(3) $2,100Hi $1,575Lo

 

2010

 

(1) $1,500Hi

 

2009

 

(1) $3,433Hi

 

2004

 

(1) $1,800Hi

 

I'm still baffled how someone could ask well over $3,000 and get it when prices have been slumping. I guess it still gets down to how badly someone wants an extremely high grade #400 and is willing to pay the "I don't wanna sell it" price. (But secretly I do and I want an outlandish price for it.) It makes one wonder about the relevance of the GPA and the price guides when sale prices fluctuate so wildly.

 

I only asked because I offered a somewhat lower price for a book and had the GPA cited to me. But when I cite the GPA when confronting a seller who has his book priced too high, the data is out the window. I am still trying to learn the finer points of bidding and offering. Bottom line is if it's too high, I ain't getting it.

[jimjum12]

For me, it really depends on the book.... and Tec 400 is one that can have some very compelling eye appeal within a grade range..... enough to where I would pay more for a specific 9.4 than I would for a marginal 9.6. That's the problem I've always found with relying on strictly numbers to gauge sales data. Eye appeal can play such an overwhelming factor.... and numbers just don't reflect that. If I were you, as a fellow lover of tec 400, go high for the right copy and don't let over analyzing ruin it for you...... however....... 3 K does seem a tad steep..... I'd think 1500 for a drop dead gorgeous 9.6 might be worth it if you can quantify all the hours of awesomeness that a top 10 Adams Bat cover might provide. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[VintageComics]

You're taking GPA outliers and trying to pin it as a value.

 

Taking a GPA low and calling that Fair Market Value when making an offer is no different than a seller taking a GPA high and calling it FMV. Neither is correct.

 

If a Detective #400 CGC 9.6 sold for $825 and meanwhile, CGC 9.4 copies are selling regularly in the $830 range do you really think that $825 is the FMV for a CGC 9.6?

 

You an have many reasons why you will have both low and high GPA outliers.

 

Low? You can have fugly looking books selling low because of poor eye appeal, poor page quality, auction ending at an usual hour, too many copies coming to market at once or someone just lists the book too cheap on eBay and someone hits the Buy It Now for a flip.

 

Consequently, you can also have many reasons why a copy might go high: Nobody has seen a copy for a while so bidders are desperate, shill bidding / manipulation, exemplary eye appeal or page quality, etc.

 

So don't look at one number and extrapolate. Try to get a feel for what the value is by looking at the bigger picture.

[Randall Ries]

I have been taking the outliers and trying to come up with some sort of value average so I don't end up overpaying which cuts into my overall enjoyment of owning say a 400. I don't want to beat up the seller, either. I agree with jimbo in that $1500 for a 9.6 ow/w or even white is very reasonable. $3k seems way out of line and sales like that would artificially drive the "values" for the other grades up. I'm glad those sales are few and far between.

[VintageComics]

I have been taking the outliers and trying to come up with some sort of value average so I don't end up overpaying which cuts into my overall enjoyment of owning say a 400. I don't want to beat up the seller, either. I agree with jimbo in that $1500 for a 9.6 ow/w or even white is very reasonable. $3k seems way out of line and sales like that would artificially drive the "values" for the other grades up. I'm glad those sales are few and far between.

 

If I was selling a #400 CGC 9.6 that has averaged $1500 plus and there was an $800 sale while CGC 9.4 copies were selling for more I wouldn't sell my copy for anywhere near $800.

 

I'd probably ignore that sale and find a value based on previous sales.

 

 

[Randall Ries]

Right. I was assuming that was the function of the GPA.

[paperheart]

I have a question for the knowledgeable. For example, a Detective #400 cgc 9.6 is being sold for $3,000 or so on ebay. However, the actual GPA sales average reflects sales around $800. Another example: Detective #395 cgc 9.4 for sale @ $3,000. Mass. copy. Actual sales reflect between $600-$800 for the issue in grade. What gives? If I make an offer reflecting actual sales data, they get rejected quickly. Are people really shelling out $3,000 for an $800 book? And if so, why aren't these huge sales being reflected in the average that makes up the GPA?

 

these books aren't 'being sold.' these are ebay asking prices that aren't ever going to happen.

[joe_collector]

Yep, lots of sellers treat eBay like a museum to display their own personal collection at prices no sane person would ever pay.

[Number 6]

Right. I was assuming that was the function of the GPA.

 

No, GPA simply provides you with the data, it's up to you to correctly interpret what that data means.

 

1. As Roy pointed out, the #400 9.4 sales are more recent and are nearly what the previous 9.6 sale was. And that 9.6 sale could have been as much as a year prior A lot can happen in a year, even six months. The 9.4 sales seem to indicate the book is on an upward trend. So when a 9.6 copy sells again - such as the one in the upcoming Clink auction - it will likely sell for considerably more.

 

2. Compare the sales data from GPA with the CGC census numbers. For example: Detective #400 and Batman #232 are both keys, published about the same time, and have comparable NM- values in Overstreet. But the census shows that there are far more NM-range graded copies of Batman #232. There's 79 copies in 9.6, whereas there's only 14 copies of Detective #400 in that grade. For a seller, it's going to be easier to replace a copy of Batman #232 than a copy of Detective #400 in the same grade, so they'll price accordingly. Plus, Ras has had a decent amount of Hollywood exposure, while Man-bat has not. Sellers may be pricing aggressively in anticipation of some possible Hollywood-hype growth.

 

3. Both #395 and #400 are keys, and as the census shows, not overly plentiful in grade compared to Batman. At this point in time, the market is extremely competitive for any and all keys, particularly for quality books like these. If you're overly concerned with possibly over-paying, now is not a good time to be looking for these kinds of books. You're either going to be willing to monetarily compete for these books and hope it pays off in the long run, or pass on them until the market cools off.

 

The GPA data is a useful tool, but it's not as simple as "this was the last sale so this is what I pay". You have to take that data in it's broader context.

[revat]

Right. I was assuming that was the function of the GPA.

 

No, GPA simply provides you with the data, it's up to you to correctly interpret what that data means.

 

1. As Roy pointed out, the #400 9.4 sales are more recent and are nearly what the previous 9.6 sale was. And that 9.6 sale could have been as much as a year prior A lot can happen in a year, even six months. The 9.4 sales seem to indicate the book is on an upward trend. So when a 9.6 copy sells again - such as the one in the upcoming Clink auction - it will likely sell for considerably more.

 

2. Compare the sales data from GPA with the CGC census numbers. For example: Detective #400 and Batman #232 are both keys, published about the same time, and have comparable NM- values in Overstreet. But the census shows that there are far more NM-range graded copies of Batman #232. There's 79 copies in 9.6, whereas there's only 14 copies of Detective #400 in that grade. For a seller, it's going to be easier to replace a copy of Batman #232 than a copy of Detective #400 in the same grade, so they'll price accordingly. Plus, Ras has had a decent amount of Hollywood exposure, while Man-bat has not. Sellers may be pricing aggressively in anticipation of some possible Hollywood-hype growth.

 

3. Both #395 and #400 are keys, and as the census shows, not overly plentiful in grade compared to Batman. At this point in time, the market is extremely competitive for any and all keys, particularly for quality books like these. If you're overly concerned with possibly over-paying, now is not a good time to be looking for these kinds of books. You're either going to be willing to monetarily compete for these books and hope it pays off in the long run, or pass on them until the market cools off.

 

The GPA data is a useful tool, but it's not as simple as "this was the last sale so this is what I pay". You have to take that data in it's broader context.

 

or don't. its up to you how to use it. Just like any other decision, you can use as little or as much information as you like, then mix it with your own intelligence and preferences and financial situation to arrive at what YOU THINK is the best decision for you.

[LordRahl]

I have a question for the knowledgeable. For example, a Detective #400 cgc 9.6 is being sold for $3,000 or so on ebay. However, the actual GPA sales average reflects sales around $800. Another example: Detective #395 cgc 9.4 for sale @ $3,000. Mass. copy. Actual sales reflect between $600-$800 for the issue in grade. What gives? If I make an offer reflecting actual sales data, they get rejected quickly. Are people really shelling out $3,000 for an $800 book? And if so, why aren't these huge sales being reflected in the average that makes up the GPA?

 

Since the Tec 395 Mass is my book, let me give you my reasoning on it. First you are comparing it to the other 9.4 that is up on ebay right now for somewhere in the neighborhood of $800. Look at both books. The Mass copy is tightly graded, the other is not (2 edge creases on the right edge, corner crease bottom right on a 9.4). The Mass copy has OW/W pages, the other has C/OW. The Mass copy is also a pedigree.

 

I'm pricing relative to the Twin Cities 9.6 that has sold twice, each time over $3K. The Mass copy looks just as good. I know the label says 9.4 vs 9.6 but for people that actually buy the book, that TC 9.6 is overgraded.

 

Also, as people said, I'm in no rush to sell this particular book. If it never sells, I'm ok with that. I can live with parting with it for what I feel the book is worth. If no one agrees with me that it is worth that, then so be it.

 

Another factor is the current market. I've sold 2 high grade, high dollar pedigree books through marketplace offers through Heritage (both books were won through Heritage) for way over what "FMV" would be. Extremely aggressive offers for books I wasn't looking to sell but just couldn't pass up the offers (I'm talking 80-100% over GPA). Granted they are books that don't come around often, but then again neither does the Mass copy of Tec 395 in 9.4. These aren't reflected in GPA, as CL isn't reflected in GPA. Prices on CL are routinely way above GPA for the types of books you are talking about.

 

All of these things went into my pricing decision.

[LordRahl]

Oh, and also what I had to give up to get the book in the first place. It was a cash/trade deal but that also figures into what I'm willing to let it go for.

[seanfingh]

I have a question for the knowledgeable. For example, a Detective #400 cgc 9.6 is being sold for $3,000 or so on ebay. However, the actual GPA sales average reflects sales around $800. Another example: Detective #395 cgc 9.4 for sale @ $3,000. Mass. copy. Actual sales reflect between $600-$800 for the issue in grade. What gives? If I make an offer reflecting actual sales data, they get rejected quickly. Are people really shelling out $3,000 for an $800 book? And if so, why aren't these huge sales being reflected in the average that makes up the GPA?

 

Since the Tec 395 Mass is my book, let me give you my reasoning on it. First you are comparing it to the other 9.4 that is up on ebay right now for somewhere in the neighborhood of $800. Look at both books. The Mass copy is tightly graded, the other is not (2 edge creases on the right edge, corner crease bottom right on a 9.4). The Mass copy has OW/W pages, the other has C/OW. The Mass copy is also a pedigree.

 

I'm pricing relative to the Twin Cities 9.6 that has sold twice, each time over $3K. The Mass copy looks just as good. I know the label says 9.4 vs 9.6 but for people that actually buy the book, that TC 9.6 is overgraded.

 

Also, as people said, I'm in no rush to sell this particular book. If it never sells, I'm ok with that. I can live with parting with it for what I feel the book is worth. If no one agrees with me that it is worth that, then so be it.

 

Another factor is the current market. I've sold 2 high grade, high dollar pedigree books through marketplace offers through Heritage (both books were won through Heritage) for way over what "FMV" would be. Extremely aggressive offers for books I wasn't looking to sell but just couldn't pass up the offers (I'm talking 80-100% over GPA). Granted they are books that don't come around often, but then again neither does the Mass copy of Tec 395 in 9.4. These aren't reflected in GPA, as CL isn't reflected in GPA. Prices on CL are routinely way above GPA for the types of books you are talking about.

 

All of these things went into my pricing decision.

 

The effect is what I call "GPA cramdown." And treats all books in the same grade as equal, when clearly they are not. It is part of the commoditization/liquidity of comics, which in some ways is great, but it does lead to this concept that GPA is some sort of unwritten law.

 

For years many books were sold above Overstreet for a variety of reasons relating to scarcity, markets, pedigree, QP and PQ.

 

There is absolutely nothing wrong with waiting for your price for items that are unique or effectively unique. Prospective buyers hate it, because they want the super nice book for the GPA cramdown price.

[LordRahl]

I have a question for the knowledgeable. For example, a Detective #400 cgc 9.6 is being sold for $3,000 or so on ebay. However, the actual GPA sales average reflects sales around $800. Another example: Detective #395 cgc 9.4 for sale @ $3,000. Mass. copy. Actual sales reflect between $600-$800 for the issue in grade. What gives? If I make an offer reflecting actual sales data, they get rejected quickly. Are people really shelling out $3,000 for an $800 book? And if so, why aren't these huge sales being reflected in the average that makes up the GPA?

 

Since the Tec 395 Mass is my book, let me give you my reasoning on it. First you are comparing it to the other 9.4 that is up on ebay right now for somewhere in the neighborhood of $800. Look at both books. The Mass copy is tightly graded, the other is not (2 edge creases on the right edge, corner crease bottom right on a 9.4). The Mass copy has OW/W pages, the other has C/OW. The Mass copy is also a pedigree.

 

I'm pricing relative to the Twin Cities 9.6 that has sold twice, each time over $3K. The Mass copy looks just as good. I know the label says 9.4 vs 9.6 but for people that actually buy the book, that TC 9.6 is overgraded.

 

Also, as people said, I'm in no rush to sell this particular book. If it never sells, I'm ok with that. I can live with parting with it for what I feel the book is worth. If no one agrees with me that it is worth that, then so be it.

 

Another factor is the current market. I've sold 2 high grade, high dollar pedigree books through marketplace offers through Heritage (both books were won through Heritage) for way over what "FMV" would be. Extremely aggressive offers for books I wasn't looking to sell but just couldn't pass up the offers (I'm talking 80-100% over GPA). Granted they are books that don't come around often, but then again neither does the Mass copy of Tec 395 in 9.4. These aren't reflected in GPA, as CL isn't reflected in GPA. Prices on CL are routinely way above GPA for the types of books you are talking about.

 

All of these things went into my pricing decision.

 

The effect is what I call "GPA cramdown." And treats all books in the same grade as equal, when clearly they are not. It is part of the commoditization/liquidity of comics, which in some ways is great, but it does lead to this concept that GPA is some sort of unwritten law.

 

For years many books were sold above Overstreet for a variety of reasons relating to scarcity, markets, pedigree, QP and PQ.

 

There is absolutely nothing wrong with waiting for your price for items that are unique or effectively unique. Prospective buyers hate it, because they want the super nice book for the GPA cramdown price.

 

Precisely. Couldn't have said it better. A potential buyer made an argument to me that the book was overpriced because there was a 9.4 on ebay for much less. My response - well then why don't you go buy the one on ebay? Because it's an inferior book, that's why. All 9.4s aren't created equal but basing everything on GPA tends to overlook that very important point.

[Randall Ries]

This is all very valuable information for me. It answers and reminds me of peripheral things as well. Why does this 9.0 look like a 7.5? Why does this miswrapped copy of GL 87 garner a 9.8 with o/w pages? I wasn't taking those things into consideration while looking at the GPA. I think the GPA will be valuable when making an offer for a run of the mill book, but certainly not pedigrees or flawless books. I know that they stand alone as almost aberrations.

 

Hopefully, I haven't come across as critical. I have a lot to learn about how sales work these days and the mindset of collector sellers.

 

That Mass. copy is truly a sweet book and I crave it. I have a 9.0 that is a beauty as well. I have a HOS 92 graded at a 9.0 that for the life of me don't know why it didn't get a higher grade.

 

There really can't be any unwritten laws in this hobby. The OSPG is virtually worthless as a tome because of the volitility of the collectors market. I mean it is good as a jumping off point, but it seems like it is just about out the window.

 

 

[seanfingh]

This is all very valuable information for me. It answers and reminds me of peripheral things as well. Why does this 9.0 look like a 7.5? Why does this miswrapped copy of GL 87 garner a 9.8 with o/w pages? I wasn't taking those things into consideration while looking at the GPA. I think the GPA will be valuable when making an offer for a run of the mill book, but certainly not pedigrees or flawless books. I know that they stand alone as almost aberrations.

 

Hopefully, I haven't come across as critical. I have a lot to learn about how sales work these days and the mindset of collector sellers.

 

That Mass. copy is truly a sweet book and I crave it. I have a 9.0 that is a beauty as well. I have a HOS 92 graded at a 9.0 that for the life of me don't know why it didn't get a higher grade.

 

There really can't be any unwritten laws in this hobby. The OSPG is virtually worthless as a tome because of the volitility of the collectors market. I mean it is good as a jumping off point, but it seems like it is just about out the window.

 

 

It is a reasonable inquiry. There are a lot of people joining the graded end of the hobby, and they tend to look at GPA as a stock market index - this is what these books should sell for - period. Sometimes for books that are traded often, and for books that have many copies in the same grade, it does work like that. But not so much for others.

 

If everyone always and only paid the latest GPA, books would cease to fluctuate in price at all.

[jimjum12]

I have a question for the knowledgeable. For example, a Detective #400 cgc 9.6 is being sold for $3,000 or so on ebay. However, the actual GPA sales average reflects sales around $800. Another example: Detective #395 cgc 9.4 for sale @ $3,000. Mass. copy. Actual sales reflect between $600-$800 for the issue in grade. What gives? If I make an offer reflecting actual sales data, they get rejected quickly. Are people really shelling out $3,000 for an $800 book? And if so, why aren't these huge sales being reflected in the average that makes up the GPA?

 

Since the Tec 395 Mass is my book, let me give you my reasoning on it. First you are comparing it to the other 9.4 that is up on ebay right now for somewhere in the neighborhood of $800. Look at both books. The Mass copy is tightly graded, the other is not (2 edge creases on the right edge, corner crease bottom right on a 9.4). The Mass copy has OW/W pages, the other has C/OW. The Mass copy is also a pedigree.

 

I'm pricing relative to the Twin Cities 9.6 that has sold twice, each time over $3K. The Mass copy looks just as good. I know the label says 9.4 vs 9.6 but for people that actually buy the book, that TC 9.6 is overgraded.

 

Also, as people said, I'm in no rush to sell this particular book. If it never sells, I'm ok with that. I can live with parting with it for what I feel the book is worth. If no one agrees with me that it is worth that, then so be it.

 

Another factor is the current market. I've sold 2 high grade, high dollar pedigree books through marketplace offers through Heritage (both books were won through Heritage) for way over what "FMV" would be. Extremely aggressive offers for books I wasn't looking to sell but just couldn't pass up the offers (I'm talking 80-100% over GPA). Granted they are books that don't come around often, but then again neither does the Mass copy of Tec 395 in 9.4. These aren't reflected in GPA, as CL isn't reflected in GPA. Prices on CL are routinely way above GPA for the types of books you are talking about.

 

All of these things went into my pricing decision.

 

..... this is good of you to take the time to articulate this. Comic Books, Coins, Rare Books, Fine Art...... all have been accepted to one degree or another as good vehicles in which to "park money" for two simple reasons..... growth and liquidity. The growth comes from prices increasing.... so if one desires a certain book but refuses to budge beyond GPA, to pay more than GPA, is that book even really worth paying GPA for ? The best books I've ever acquired, in hindsight, were ones that I paid MUCH more than FMV for..... I'm not talking 10 percent, I'm talking 50 to 100 percent higher than FMV. If it's not worth being the top bidder in the room, then what is it worth, really ? The thing to remember is that focusing on these things too much from an "investment" standpoint will strip away much of the joy of ownership. These things aren't really investments anyway, they're Luxury Items. If you really want to invest, get some undeveloped acreage on the outskirts of town, or snag 10,000 dollars worth of stock in the National Bank of Greece and then forget about it until it's time to retire. The tec 395 Mass Copy will be a thing of staggering beauty..... if you take a Mass copy out of the slab you'll quickly see why THAT copy is better than another 9.4. My advice to the OP is to take the "book by book" approach and stop trying to find ways to level the playing field..... educate yourself in regards to "scarcity in grade" and eye appeal, and swing for the fence. Having that Grail book NOW is probably going to end up being worth more to you than the few hundred you might save by waiting a couple of years. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Randall Ries]

I have taken a book by book approach for sure. Paid WAY more than FMV for my GL # 87 8.5 because it included all of Hals foot and was signed by Adams. I have never seen all of the foot included and was thrilled by it. Some would call it a miswrap. I call it awesome. I definitely "budged" off of the GPA!

 

I told my wife when I started collecting again that they would be "investments". Which they are for sure, but not the driving force for my resuming the hobby. I love the staggering beauty of the books. I only needed to know what the purpose of the GPA was so when I see these books, and they are not unusually immaculate, I can get a decent idea of what to bid or offer for them. I don't want to bid on a sub par book and get hosed unless there is something unique about the book itself. I bought a copy of Bat 234 9.0 that included the whole white banner and then some on the cover. I was told it was a miswrap. To me, it was gold. Think I paid $200.

 

I, like many collectors, can't afford scarcity in grade and so I figured the GPA would be a good barometer for the more common grades in any grade. The #400 on ebay is priced over $3700. That's steep. Is it nice? Yeah. Of course. $3700 nice? No way. It isn't even the CVA copy.