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Amazing Spider-Man 667 1:100 Dell'Otto Variant

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Just to clarify, it was stated that the stores needed to order 500 of the regular covers to qualify for the store variant - it was my understanding that the store needed to order at least 500 copies of their store variant in order for Marvel to create and print one for them.

 

I don't believe the store variants were tied in any way to compel stores to order the regular covers. In fact I'd guess the regular cover to 666 is probably around the average print run for that title around that time.

 

I don't know the timing for final cut off for 667 and how it would relate to the shelf results of 666 - this was a bi-weekly title - so I'd say if there's fatigue it would be order based not results/sales based if 666 had any impact at all.

:D

ASM #666 was shipped 7/27/2011

 

ASM #667 FOC was on 7/18/2011

 

No impact at all, because orders had to be in before 666 came out.

 

Not accurate since those shops who participated in the 666 event by over ordering on copies of it (of which there were nearly 150 stores) were clearly less inclined to do so again on the 667 for "just another" 1:100 RI variant.

 

But that is just speculation, and is not even likely the full story since that still would not explain the ultra scarcity of the book.

 

-J.

 

That's again a misunderstanding of how it works.

 

Most stores that order 100 copies to get that variant, order 100 copies because that's what they need - or 200 or whatever they get in for the size of their store. Unless someone special orders that variant, a store that normally sells 50 copies of ASM every month, just isn't going to normally jack their order up just to get it and have a bunch of unsellable copies around.

 

In other words the majority of those 1:100 variants go to the same stores in the same quantity every time there's one available. The lesser quantities of the A cover that go to smaller stores who would never qualify for a 1:100 is what truly rises and lowers a print run on the book.

 

Midtown and Lone Star and whatnot are never going to vary up or down all that much on a book like ASM, because even if they don't sell it at the time, they have it available to online customers for as long as they need.

 

Talk to some retailers on here and you'll see what I mean - Larry has a large story and he can attest to what I'm talking about - the big guys swing for the fences on a book like ASM, they don't get gun shy and variant fatigued.

 

Whatever reason we might not see as much of that variant right now, it's not that.

 

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Just to clarify, it was stated that the stores needed to order 500 of the regular covers to qualify for the store variant - it was my understanding that the store needed to order at least 500 copies of their store variant in order for Marvel to create and print one for them.

 

I don't believe the store variants were tied in any way to compel stores to order the regular covers. In fact I'd guess the regular cover to 666 is probably around the average print run for that title around that time.

 

I don't know the timing for final cut off for 667 and how it would relate to the shelf results of 666 - this was a bi-weekly title - so I'd say if there's fatigue it would be order based not results/sales based if 666 had any impact at all.

:D

ASM #666 was shipped 7/27/2011

 

ASM #667 FOC was on 7/18/2011

 

No impact at all, because orders had to be in before 666 came out.

 

Not accurate since those shops who participated in the 666 event by over ordering on copies of it (of which there were nearly 150 stores) were clearly less inclined to do so again on the 667 for "just another" 1:100 RI variant.

 

But that is just speculation, and is not even likely the full story since that still would not explain the ultra scarcity of the book.

 

-J.

 

That's again a misunderstanding of how it works.

 

Most stores that order 100 copies to get that variant, order 100 copies because that's what they need - or 200 or whatever they get in for the size of their store. Unless someone special orders that variant, a store that normally sells 50 copies of ASM every month, just isn't going to normally jack their order up just to get it and have a bunch of unsellable copies around.

 

In other words the majority of those 1:100 variants go to the same stores in the same quantity every time there's one available. The lesser quantities of the A cover that go to smaller stores who would never qualify for a 1:100 is what truly rises and lowers a print run on the book.

 

Midtown and Lone Star and whatnot are never going to vary up or down all that much on a book like ASM, because even if they don't sell it at the time, they have it available to online customers for as long as they need.

 

Talk to some retailers on here and you'll see what I mean - Larry has a large story and he can attest to what I'm talking about - the big guys swing for the fences on a book like ASM, they don't get gun shy and variant fatigued.

 

Whatever reason we might not see as much of that variant right now, it's not that.

 

You're still speaking in generalities that might be true 99.999% of the time but did not, in fact turn out to be the case with this book.

 

What we do know is that 150 shops had to order at least 500 copies of the 666 to qualify for the event. That's a very large commitment even for the largest of retailers.

 

What we do know is that incentive caused ASM numbers to nearly double for that issue causing it to be #1 for the month.

 

What we don't know is which stores participated, and how much their normal orders were prior to that month.

 

It's just as likely to speculate that even larger stores pumped their orders for 666 only to then dial them back for 667, since ASM was nowhere near a top seller at the time and they may have feared having a back stock and didn't want to risk piling up on the 667 as well. A store that normally ordered 115 copies of ASM may have just decided that 90 would have been sufficient that issue- if for no reason than as a hedge. It's not like this 666 thing is something marvel does on a regular basis, and it was on an underperfoming title at the time to boot.

 

We just don't know what exactly happened. But something did- likely a combination of somethings that is unlikely to ever be repeated. There are reports of some of the large retailers like Midtown not having the book available immediately upon release. Something outside of "the norm" happened. I couldn't find a copy for four moths after it came out in any condition and when I finally did had to pay more than I have ever paid for a raw comic, let alone a modern, if I wanted the opportunity to own a copy for my run.

 

And it's not a matter of us not seeing much of the 667 variant "right now". We don't see it right now, it wasn't seen before, and likely will not be seen much at all in the future, as their availability has literally dwindled down to one copy a year on the market. Maybe two. Hence the ever escalating prices realized even in VF/NM condition.

 

-J.

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That's incorrect.

 

Midtown spending $1000 for 500 copies of $1750 for 1000 copies (as it clearly states still on Diamond's retailer site) would have no bearing on how they ordered their regular copies of the book. They didn't have to order 500 copies of the REGULAR cover to qualify, they had to order at least 500 of the VARIANT to qualify. It had no bearing on their regular order.

Why would it? The 666 event is an advertising expense, not a regular release.

 

They still ordered their regular amount of the normal cover and continue to do so each month. You may want to actually talk to some large retailers about how they actually do business. You're still confused on how it works.

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I'm not sure exactly what you are claiming I am "incorrect" about since we are both just stating opinions and speculating here. You are using one of the largest retailers as an example, when there were at least 140 other shops that participated in the event, a small fraction of which would be in midtown's league, most of which would be highly unlikely to double down on the 667 by over ordering on it just to get the variant so soon after the 666 event. Even if every shop that participated ordered the minimum amount of copies, that would account for 70,000 of the 666's entire 135,000 run- more than half.

 

This has been the operating theory of those who have followed the 667 from the beginning (including some who are retailers), and with all due respect, it easily withstands your superficial scrutiny and attempts at Monday morning quarterbacking over four years after the fact.

 

-J.

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It wouldn't change the number of REGULAR copies ordered at all. That's not how large retailers order. There's no speculation here, it's just not.

 

Midtown:

ASM 666 store variant - 1000 copies

ASM 666 regular cover - 1000 copies

 

ASM 667 regular cover - 1000 copies

 

Why do you think they'd change the number of regular copies they bought? No one buying the 'store' variant was doing it to read the story - people still want there regular copy.

 

Joe Blow little retailer:

ASM 666 store variant - 500 copies

ASM 666 regular cover - 100 copies

 

ASM 667 regular cover - 100 copies

 

Once again, why would the little retailer change his regular order the following month? The store variant is an advertising expense, and even if he had too many left over (which he wouldn't know until it was released, which it WASN'T until after FOC for 667), why would he risk losing sales by cutting down his regular order for the following month?

 

The store variant wouldn't have an impact on the regular cover.

 

 

 

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It wouldn't change the number of REGULAR copies ordered at all. That's not how large retailers order. There's no speculation here, it's just not.

 

Midtown:

ASM 666 store variant - 1000 copies

ASM 666 regular cover - 1000 copies

 

ASM 667 regular cover - 1000 copies

 

Why do you think they'd change the number of regular copies they bought? No one buying the 'store' variant was doing it to read the story - people still want there regular copy.

 

Joe Blow little retailer:

ASM 666 store variant - 500 copies

ASM 666 regular cover - 100 copies

 

ASM 667 regular cover - 100 copies

 

Once again, why would the little retailer change his regular order the following month? The store variant is an advertising expense, and even if he had too many left over (which he wouldn't know until it was released, which it WASN'T until after FOC for 667), why would he risk losing sales by cutting down his regular order for the following month?

 

The store variant wouldn't have an impact on the regular cover.

 

 

 

You're still speaking in generalities. The hypothetical data that you cite is not supported by the actual statistical data that exists on the book.

 

Obviously not enough Joe Blow little retailers ordered enough batches of the 100 of the 667 to get the variant. Neither you or I know why they did not. We are speculating on the possible motives.

 

But regardless of the actual answer to that question, the book still was under ordered by most retailers to create an unusual scarcity of the variant, even on the primary market (forget about the secondary).

 

-J.

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It wouldn't change the number of REGULAR copies ordered at all. That's not how large retailers order. There's no speculation here, it's just not.

 

Midtown:

ASM 666 store variant - 1000 copies

ASM 666 regular cover - 1000 copies

 

ASM 667 regular cover - 1000 copies

 

Why do you think they'd change the number of regular copies they bought? No one buying the 'store' variant was doing it to read the story - people still want there regular copy.

 

Joe Blow little retailer:

ASM 666 store variant - 500 copies

ASM 666 regular cover - 100 copies

 

ASM 667 regular cover - 100 copies

 

Once again, why would the little retailer change his regular order the following month? The store variant is an advertising expense, and even if he had too many left over (which he wouldn't know until it was released, which it WASN'T until after FOC for 667), why would he risk losing sales by cutting down his regular order for the following month?

 

The store variant wouldn't have an impact on the regular cover.

 

 

 

You're still speaking in generalities. The hypothetical data that you cite is not supported by the actual statistical data that exists on the book.

 

That is inaccurate. You are relying on what isn't there to make guesses on what is. The census only tells us what IS...not what is NOT. The market only tells us what IS....not what is NOT. You can only make broad guesses as to what is based on the census and the market. You cannot draw conclusions.

 

Obviously not enough Joe Blow little retailers ordered enough batches of the 100 of the 667 to get the variant. Neither you or I know why they did not. We are speculating on the possible motives.

 

You have no way of knowing that. It's not only not "obvious", it's essentially unprovable, unless you were to have access to Marvel and Diamond's figures about who got what and how many. A survey of all stores is prohibitively time and resource consuming, assuming they bothered to keep records in the first place.

 

300 stores across the continent could have ordered 100 copies each, and those 300 copies could have gone to a single customer at each store, who now has it in their collection, along with the copies ordered by Mile High, Graham Crackers, Bedrock, etc.

 

You don't know.

 

But regardless of the actual answer to that question, the book still was under ordered by most retailers to create an unusual scarcity of the variant, even on the primary market (forget about the secondary).

 

-J.

 

The "primary market" is new, retail sales. The secondary market is back issues. You don't know if the book was "under ordered by most retailers." The variant has a perceived scarcity, based on available copies. That doesn't mean that there aren't 1,000 copies out there, firmly entrenched in Spidey collections across the world. Or, there are 50 copies in collections around the world, and Marvel's got a couple of cases warehoused somewhere. Or, Marvel sold them in one of their variant dumps that you're unaware of, and they're sitting in someone's dealer inventory, forgotten for the time being. Or, they could have all been destroyed.

 

You don't know. Nobody does, except Marvel and DIamond, and they aren't talking...yet.

 

As an analog...there were reportedly 10,000 copies of Spiderman #1 Platinum printed. It may actually be more.

 

There are 34 copies up for sale on eBay right now.

 

With a large print run for a variant, it still sells for a substantial amount of money...$100 to $200 for a raw, and up to $1,000+ for a signed 9.8.

 

And there are 10,000 or more of them out there. And this is a decade AFTER New Dimension bought Marvel out of their remaining stock of around 3,000 copies.

 

Yes, you red that correctly: Marvel had about 3,000 copies of this very first "RI" book that Marvel did, still around 15 YEARS after they were printed.

 

And those 3,000 copies took a while to be absorbed into the market. Somewhere on the internet, there's a picture of a couple hundred of them all together.

 

Meanwhile, other variants, with tiny print runs...like the Vampirella Royal Blues, limited to 100...you can't give away. You're lucky to get $20-$25 for most of them.

 

The difference, of course, is the characters. People collect Spidey, and they pay well for Spidey, and they tend to hold on to Spidey.

 

Now, I haven't insulted you, or called you names...I hope you can respond in kind, without resorting to histrionics.

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It wouldn't change the number of REGULAR copies ordered at all. That's not how large retailers order. There's no speculation here, it's just not.

 

Midtown:

ASM 666 store variant - 1000 copies

ASM 666 regular cover - 1000 copies

 

ASM 667 regular cover - 1000 copies

 

Why do you think they'd change the number of regular copies they bought? No one buying the 'store' variant was doing it to read the story - people still want there regular copy.

 

Joe Blow little retailer:

ASM 666 store variant - 500 copies

ASM 666 regular cover - 100 copies

 

ASM 667 regular cover - 100 copies

 

Once again, why would the little retailer change his regular order the following month? The store variant is an advertising expense, and even if he had too many left over (which he wouldn't know until it was released, which it WASN'T until after FOC for 667), why would he risk losing sales by cutting down his regular order for the following month?

 

The store variant wouldn't have an impact on the regular cover.

 

 

 

You're still speaking in generalities. The hypothetical data that you cite is not supported by the actual statistical data that exists on the book.

 

Obviously not enough Joe Blow little retailers ordered enough batches of the 100 of the 667 to get the variant. Neither you or I know why they did not. We are speculating on the possible motives.

 

But regardless of the actual answer to that question, the book still was under ordered by most retailers to create an unusual scarcity of the variant, even on the primary market (forget about the secondary).

 

-J.

 

That's incorrect.

 

Talk to retailers. I'm talking in specifics that are in line with what retailers actually do.

 

You're talking in generalities using unknown variables.

 

The scenario I'm presenting IS SPECIFICALLY what retailers DO. Ask them.

 

This is a scenario that makes sense toward disproving what you believe, based upon actual behavior.

 

What you've done is taken what you believe and created a scenario that would make it true, based upon what history has shown us has continually shown to NOT be true.

 

It doesn't mean it ISN'T - the book COULD actually be ultra rare - but not based upon what you're trying to explain it as why. People didn't order less of 667 for the reasons you believe. There's absolutely nothing in what you've presented that would show that.

 

Ask any retailer, they'll tell you the same thing. They wouldn't order less of the regular book the following month because of what they ordered the previous month without knowing how good or bad it did. The month previous to THAT, possibly - but in almost every instance, the type of store that qualifies for 1:100's doesn't just suddenly NOT order that way on a book like ASM.

 

Just doesn't happen. Ask the buyer for a store that size, they'll tell you.

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Now let's look at the census numbers and availability of the 638-641 sketch covers, which were all 1:100s and had slightly less print numbers than the 667 (3 of them did anyway):

 

Print run numbers for the regular books do not have any bearing on the print run numbers of the "1:X" variants. Again: the print runs for the REGULAR books has NO BEARING WHATSOEVER on the print runs of the VARIANTS, other than broad indicators of copies needed.

 

Nobody knows the print run numbers for the "1:X" variants except Marvel.

 

638- 77 total slabs, 54, 9.8; 1, 9.9

 

639- 44 total slabs, 36, 9.8; 2, 9.9

 

640- 61 total slabs, 50, 9.8; 3, 9.9

 

641- 50 total slabs, 42, 9.8

 

All four books have multiple copies currently available for sale on ebay both raw and slabbed. Again, these are still very small numbers of slabs all things considered, especially the 639, and even it has over double the census number of the 667 and nearly quadruple the amount of graded 9.8's including 2, 9.9's. :o

 

What do you mean, "very small numbers of slabs, all things considered"...?

 

Are you aware that ASM #301, which was printed 12 years before CGC existed, only has 98 9.8s on the census...? And two of these 1:100s have more than half that number, and have only been out for 5 years, in the era of CGC slabs....? And, they were printed in MINISCULE numbers, compared to #301.

 

Are you also aware that #300 has 764 9.8s on the census?

 

So, "very small numbers of slabs" is relative, then...? If it's #301, it's "common", but if it's these, it's "very small numbers of slabs"...?

 

And keep in mind these books (including the mighty Campbell 648 sketch) sell (and have generally always sold) for small percentages compared to the 667, barely worth the cost of slabbing in a couple instances, and yet look at their census populations compared to the 667.

 

Here's a trade secret: collectors don't generally slab books. Dealers do.

 

Collectors are generally content to keep books raw, for the most part. It is the rare collector who buys CGC books, and the rarer still who slabs for himself. We have a disproportionate amount of CGC buyers and sellers here, obviously, but in the collector world, CGC is still very niche.

 

So, what do the census numbers tell us...?

 

Broadly, it tells us that dealers got to these books, rather than collectors. And how did those dealers do it? (I don't mean retailers, and I don't NOT mean retailers, I mean dealers who deal in slabbed books on a regular basis, retailer or no.)

 

Those dealers did it because those books got into their hands. How? Because Marvel released these books in a variant sale several years ago (along with the infamous "O" second printing to #638.)

 

That's how. And when these dealers got a hold of these books, they slabbed them, and then sold them.

 

How do I know? There are 54 recorded sales of the 1:100 "sketch cover" to #638. There are 77 total slabs on the census. 10 of those are duplicate sales, so 44 unique slabs sold. That means 57% of the slabbed copies of this book were sold at one point or another.

 

Collectors don't sell (let's not get silly and literal, now) Dealers sell.

 

How about #639...? Lowest slab population:

 

44 total slabs....21 unique slabs sold since 2010. That means 47% of the slabs out there were sold at one point of another.

 

What does that mean? Again: dealers got the copies, slabbed them, and sold them.

 

Without those slabbed sales...the slabbed copies goes down by half or more.

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What you've done is taken what you believe and created a scenario that would make it true, based upon what history has shown us has continually shown to NOT be true.

 

That is the heart, the core, of Jaydog's argument. He sees they are rare on the market, he sees they are rare on the census, and he has constructed, entirely in his mind, a scenario for why this might be.

 

Unfortunately, there are several variables which he did not know, which would render (and have rendered) this scenario impossible.

 

Then, when confronted with those variables, rather than say "oh. Well, I guess I didn't know that, I guess I'll abandon my theory", he dug himself in, ignoring the facts which render his scenario impossible, and repeating his theory on different occasions, despite much corrected information along the way, pretending those corrections didn't exist.

 

I don't think it's in Jaydogrules to admit he is wrong. I think he'll just argue the same disproven points forever (and keep in mind...these are factually disproven points, not mere differences of opinion, here.)

 

For example: he still doesn't seem to understand, or is unwilling to acknowledge, that the "500 copies of #666" were the store variants, not the regular book, and that there was really only ONE variant for that issue that any particular retailer would have had access to, and only 140 stores availed themselves of, not "nearly 150", which are errors that render part of his theory..."variant fatigue"...moot.

 

It doesn't mean it ISN'T - the book COULD actually be ultra rare - but not based upon what you're trying to explain it as why. People didn't order less of 667 for the reasons you believe. There's absolutely nothing in what you've presented that would show that.

 

So, Jay's heard from historians, specialists, retailers, Diamond account holders....anyone else?

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I can't believe Mike was called a bully

 

Not choosing sides - but he did call Jaydog "pathetic" first.

 

You can't be all that awesome and insult people to that degree. I know I am not one to talk, but people seriously can't just deny that he directly insulted another person (and from what I can tell in this thread it was unprovoked - at least to him personally). That certainly doesn't make him evil by any stretch (not sure it makes him a bully either), but ignoring what he said isn't a fair assessment of the situation.

 

Someone was insulted, so they retaliated. Kinda par for the course round here...

 

hm

 

I never said any of those things or denied what he called him. I'm sure part of it is frustration from trying to reason with someone who's being unreasonable despite sharing factual information

 

However it sounds you agree with my statement about Mike being called a bully

 

 

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I can't believe Mike was called a bully

 

Not choosing sides - but he did call Jaydog "pathetic" first.

 

You can't be all that awesome and insult people to that degree. I know I am not one to talk, but people seriously can't just deny that he directly insulted another person (and from what I can tell in this thread it was unprovoked - at least to him personally). That certainly doesn't make him evil by any stretch (not sure it makes him a bully either), but ignoring what he said isn't a fair assessment of the situation.

 

Someone was insulted, so they retaliated. Kinda par for the course round here...

 

Gotcha. It just gets fist rating debating something when the other party ignores any facts and acts as if his word is the only word.

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I can't believe Mike was called a bully

 

Not choosing sides - but he did call Jaydog "pathetic" first.

 

You can't be all that awesome and insult people to that degree. I know I am not one to talk, but people seriously can't just deny that he directly insulted another person (and from what I can tell in this thread it was unprovoked - at least to him personally). That certainly doesn't make him evil by any stretch (not sure it makes him a bully either), but ignoring what he said isn't a fair assessment of the situation.

 

Someone was insulted, so they retaliated. Kinda par for the course round here...

 

hm

 

I never said any of those things or denied what he called him. I'm sure part of it is frustration from trying to reason with someone who's being unreasonable despite sharing factual information

 

However it sounds you agree with my statement about Mike being called a bully

 

 

You're right, you did not and I did not mean to directly insinuate that you were doing anything. I meant that I got the sense it was ignored in general - which I should have stated. I meant "you" in an indirect way, but I wasn't clear and I am sorry about that.

 

I do agree with your statement about Mike.

 

:foryou:

 

_______________________________________________________

 

 

To the sharing of factual information - there is clearly a discrepancy on the boards (to which I am a part of) where there are a few people who only accept facts in the form of physically provided data and data sources. Many of the people on here have been selling/collecting/studying comics for a long time and have been come to known as experts among the board; however, to those seeking data the personal recollections/personal conclusions/experiential restatements/opinions of the "experts" are not enough to satisfy that need. Conversely, the "experts" are naturally skeptical of data provided that contradicts their personal recollections/personal conclusions/experiential restatements/opinions and can sometimes take offense when these things are ignored as stated above.

 

Of course there are times when both parties provide sources and they argue over validity - this is unavoidable. People will default to data they see that supports their preformed opinions and refute evidence to the contrary; it is an unfortunate side-effect of human nature.

 

Lastly, for purposes of this, I am going to ignore personal posting and argument styles. These things too lead to various levels of frustration and misinterpretations of statements and responses. No real need to go into it, but it only compounds an issue when it is created.

 

Net, I don't think you are ever going to get people who want "hard" data to listen to those who use their personal experiences to solidify their arguments. Therefore in threads like these, tempers flare because both parties think they are ignoring the other's "evidence" and then online egos come out (which are by and large disproportional to real life).

 

:shrug:

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Is this threads goal nerd ufc, or asm variant pumping. Struggling to follow.

 

 

Side note, slabbing books is arbitrary, so while people can make interesting observations about said behaviour, it can't ever 'prove' anything about underlying print runs. A derivative can't dictate the underlying value

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I can't believe Mike was called a bully

 

Not choosing sides - but he did call Jaydog "pathetic" first.

 

You can't be all that awesome and insult people to that degree. I know I am not one to talk, but people seriously can't just deny that he directly insulted another person (and from what I can tell in this thread it was unprovoked - at least to him personally). That certainly doesn't make him evil by any stretch (not sure it makes him a bully either), but ignoring what he said isn't a fair assessment of the situation.

 

Someone was insulted, so they retaliated. Kinda par for the course round here...

 

Gotcha. It just gets fist rating debating something when the other party ignores any facts and acts as if his word is the only word.

 

Totally agree - many times it is happening on both sides of the argument.

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I can't believe Mike was called a bully

 

Not choosing sides - but he did call Jaydog "pathetic" first.

 

You can't be all that awesome and insult people to that degree. I know I am not one to talk, but people seriously can't just deny that he directly insulted another person (and from what I can tell in this thread it was unprovoked - at least to him personally). That certainly doesn't make him evil by any stretch (not sure it makes him a bully either), but ignoring what he said isn't a fair assessment of the situation.

 

Someone was insulted, so they retaliated. Kinda par for the course round here...

 

Gotcha. It just gets fist rating debating something when the other party ignores any facts and acts as if his word is the only word.

 

Totally agree - many times it is happening on both sides of the argument.

 

I only saw it on Jaydog's side but I admit I don't read

RMA's posts.

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