Near six figure MTG art sales 0

[JesterSB]

4 minutes ago, Bronty said:

hmmm thanks for sharing.   will be fun to watch Arcades Sabboth.   I'll guess more like 25-30 on that

So hard to predict. The highest guess anyone had for Ravager was $22K and it went more than double that. I wouldn't be surprised by $15K, and I wouldn't be surprised by $75K for Arcades. There's a guy that already owns 3 of the other Elder Dragons, so he might be a big player if he wants it.

[Bronty]

5 minutes ago, JesterSB said:

So hard to predict. The highest guess anyone had for Ravager was $22K and it went more than double that. I wouldn't be surprised by $15K, and I wouldn't be surprised by $75K for Arcades. There's a guy that already owns 3 of the other Elder Dragons, so he might be a big player if he wants it.

I can't see it.   He paid nothing for those.    He's had strong enough hands not to sell all those gems he bought, but he bought them for a penny on the dollar

[Bronty]

just ran across this, cool old video.. 

 

[JesterSB]

9 minutes ago, Bronty said:

just ran across this, cool old video.. 

 

Peter sold all that stuff soon after that  

[JesterSB]

13 minutes ago, Bronty said:

I can't see it.   He paid nothing for those.    He's had strong enough hands not to sell all those gems he bought, but he bought them for a penny on the dollar

 

The reason he's been able to hold on to that stuff is he has never HAD to sell for money reasons. He had to have money when he bought all that since he bought so many pieces in 1993. Even at ~$500 each he had a good amount of cash lying around. He still picks up pieces when something grabs him, so he's definitely not out of the game. 

[Bronty]

35 minutes ago, JesterSB said:

The reason he's been able to hold on to that stuff is he has never HAD to sell for money reasons. He had to have money when he bought all that since he bought so many pieces in 1993. Even at ~$500 each he had a good amount of cash lying around. He still picks up pieces when something grabs him, so he's definitely not out of the game. 

agreed, but when you paid 500 bucks for them, you're not going to want to pay 50 grand when you already have many better examples.   My opinion.

 

 

[JesterSB]

2 minutes ago, Bronty said:

agreed, but when you paid 500 bucks for them, you're not going to want to pay 50 grand when you already have many better examples.   My opinion.

 

 

That's like saying you missed out on buying AF15 for $1K 25 years ago so you won't pay market value today. If you want it, you want it, and you'll pay the price if you want it enough. Or maybe someone beat him to the painting 25 years ago and he's been salty ever since. Who knows the motivations of a collector like that?

[Bronty]

1 hour ago, JesterSB said:

That's like saying you missed out on buying AF15 for $1K 25 years ago so you won't pay market value today. If you want it, you want it, and you'll pay the price if you want it enough. Or maybe someone beat him to the painting 25 years ago and he's been salty ever since. Who knows the motivations of a collector like that?

You're right that you never can tell, but I think its more of a psychology thing.   Most collectors used to pay $1 for something (however long ago that was) aren't in a rush to pay $1000 now (unless, as you say, its a particular favorite).   tth2 used to describe the change in attitude towards FMV over time as mental benchmarking and dependent on when you broke into the hobby, and I think there's truth to it.    Everything in comics looks expensive to me because I was buying when things were much cheaper.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Bronty

[Bronty]

And I DID miss out out on Af 15 at 1k, and I’m NOT paying Fmv now!  

[Bronty]

5 hours ago, JesterSB said:

Peter sold all that stuff soon after that  

Do you know who owns the Lotus these days?

[JesterSB]

11 hours ago, Bronty said:

Do you know who owns the Lotus these days?

No. There are people who know, and I might be able to find out if I did some digging, but I don't know personally.

[Jeffro.]

Damn! I was pretty big into Magic in the mid 90s but I never really thought about trying to buy any of the art. It's best not to think about it, just like all the comic book art I could have bought back in the 80s. 

[Bronty]

Sure, but it would have seemed expensive then too, and it would have been a buy you made with the presumption that it was utterly illiquid and you were stuck with them for life.    Pre internet days art would have been so much tougher to move if an emergency presented itself.     So somebody like Paul that spent 20 or 30 thousand in 1993 or whatever buying all those great pieces from some brand new game that might not last... that took cajones back then.     With 25 years of hindsight, sure it looks like the biggest no-brainer of all time but if you put most of back in that time and told us to come up with say 25k in 1993 dollars with 1993 incomes, for a bunch of great mtg art, none of us, or almost none of us, are doing it.

Same thing with comic art in the early 70s.    

Edited June 7, 2018 by Bronty

[JesterSB]

57 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Sure, but it would have seemed expensive then too, and it would have been a buy you made with the presumption that it was utterly illiquid and you were stuck with them for life.    Pre internet days art would have been so much tougher to move if an emergency presented itself.     So somebody like Paul that spent 20 or 30 thousand in 1993 or whatever buying all those great pieces from some brand new game that might not last... that took cajones back then.     With 25 years of hindsight, sure it looks like the biggest no-brainer of all time but if you put most of back in that time and told us to come up with say 25k in 1993 dollars with 1993 incomes, for a bunch of great mtg art, none of us, or almost none of us, are doing it.

 Same thing with comic art in the early 70s.    

And 25 years from now people might be saying the same thing about the prices of today. 

[Bronty]

2 minutes ago, JesterSB said:

And 25 years from now people might be saying the same thing about the prices of today. 

yes that's entirely possible

[Bronty]

5 hours ago, JesterSB said:

And 25 years from now people might be saying the same thing about the prices of today. 

that being said, the massive % increases in value are over.    A piece isn't going to go from 50k today to 5m in 25 years, that's just not going to happen.    Maybe 250k or even 500k happens if it all goes well, but the kind of gains someone like Paul enjoyed aren't going to be enjoyed by today's owners, nor should they.    He made a way riskier bet in 1993 than anybody plunking down their chips today.

[JesterSB]

12 hours ago, Bronty said:

that being said, the massive % increases in value are over.    A piece isn't going to go from 50k today to 5m in 25 years, that's just not going to happen.    Maybe 250k or even 500k happens if it all goes well, but the kind of gains someone like Paul enjoyed aren't going to be enjoyed by today's owners, nor should they.    He made a way riskier bet in 1993 than anybody plunking down their chips today.

Oh I absolutely agree...we are actually on an upward trajectory right now, and who knows where the peak is, but it's not in the millions range, and other than a few pieces, it's not even in the $100K range. Magic art is a lot like Comic art, there is just a lot less of it (and a lot less collectors). You can buy comic pages for $100 still. Magic art the floor is $500, because it's so scarce. I predict 5 years from now the top pieces (like Ravager) will be in the $100K range, good playable card or great art on a card ~$10K, and the floor for cards with mediochre to bad art about $1K.

Anecdote time. A few weeks ago the art for a card named "Charging Badger" went up for auction. This is a bad magic card (1 mana 1/1 with trample). The art is nice, but not even really a fantasy piece...more like a nature piece. There is a small meme associated, so that might have contributed, but it sold for $2750. This was a major surprise to a lot of the community, and everyone with active sales threads immediately raised their prices. A rising tide lifts all boats as it were. https://www.facebook.com/groups/mtgartmarket/permalink/2159883600908514/

New one. Next week, a major basic land goes up for auction. Island from Unstable by John Avon (THE premier landscape artist in the game). I predict $20K easy, and I don't know where the limit is on this one. https://www.facebook.com/groups/mtgartmarket/permalink/2179288065634734/

Edited June 8, 2018 by JesterSB

[Bronty]

5 hours ago, JesterSB said:

Oh I absolutely agree...we are actually on an upward trajectory right now, and who knows where the peak is, but it's not in the millions range, and other than a few pieces, it's not even in the $100K range. Magic art is a lot like Comic art, there is just a lot less of it (and a lot less collectors). You can buy comic pages for $100 still. Magic art the floor is $500, because it's so scarce. I predict 5 years from now the top pieces (like Ravager) will be in the $100K range, good playable card or great art on a card ~$10K, and the floor for cards with mediochre to bad art about $1K.

Anecdote time. A few weeks ago the art for a card named "Charging Badger" went up for auction. This is a bad magic card (1 mana 1/1 with trample). The art is nice, but not even really a fantasy piece...more like a nature piece. There is a small meme associated, so that might have contributed, but it sold for $2750. This was a major surprise to a lot of the community, and everyone with active sales threads immediately raised their prices. A rising tide lifts all boats as it were. https://www.facebook.com/groups/mtgartmarket/permalink/2159883600908514/

New one. Next week, a major basic land goes up for auction. Island from Unstable by John Avon (THE premier landscape artist in the game). I predict $20K easy, and I don't know where the limit is on this one. https://www.facebook.com/groups/mtgartmarket/permalink/2179288065634734/

Here's my takes:

- power nine art could be seven figures in time.   Why not?    If the game is still very popular in 25 or 35 years, I'd be surprised if it wasn't, especially the Lotus.   Any of those power 9 pieces would already be six figures plus so its not that big a stretch if you factor in all that time.

- 2750 is a lot for charging badger, but raoul vitale is a name outside magic too.    I don't see that one outlier translating to anything else except possibly similar vitale's.   Your thoughts?

- Help me understand the unstable island business.    I clearly don't know the game or what drives it half as well as you but I'm having trouble wrapping my head around why an island from a schlocky joke set outside the main game would be 20k.   Okay, its very nicely rendered, but its just an island... and while basic lands are collectible, there will be more renderings for basic island with practically every set... and this one is not from an important set... I don't get it.     Looks more like 10 to me than 20+ offhand, but I'm perfectly willing to concede that you may be right.   Just having trouble understanding that; seems wildly overpriced to me.

 

Edited June 8, 2018 by Bronty

[JesterSB]

12 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Here's my takes:

- power nine art could be seven figures in time.   Why not?    If the game is still very popular in 25 or 35 years, I'd be surprised if it wasn't, especially the Lotus.   Any of those power 9 pieces would already be six figures plus so its not that big a stretch if you factor in all that time.

- 2750 is a lot for charging badger, but raoul vitale is a name outside magic too.    I don't see that one outlier translating to anything else except possibly similar vitale's.   Your thoughts?

- Help me understand the unstable island business.    I clearly don't know the game or what drives it half as well as you but I'm having trouble wrapping my head around why an island from a schlocky joke set outside the main game would be 20k.   Okay, its very nicely rendered, but its just an island... and while basic lands are collectible, there will be more renderings for basic island with practically every set... and this one is not from an important set... I don't get it.     Looks more like 10 to me than 20+ offhand, but I'm perfectly willing to concede that you may be right.   Just having trouble understanding that; seems wildly overpriced to me.

  

Power 9 is definitely well over 6 figures currently...I would expect lotus to be $250K+...sky's the limit.

The artist on a magic cards matter, but not nearly as much as how good the card is. I can go buy a Vitale art for a card for $1K without issue. Some people just view that sale as a new benchmark for cards (it's not really, but FOMO is a thing).

The basic lands from Un-sets are legal in regular magic unlike all the other cards from those sets. Other than Beta basics, they are the most popular basics in the game. An Island card from a regular set is worth about a penny, but an Unstable Island is worth about $4 (and rising). They are very very popular, and John takes extra special time with them. They are also portrait vs. landscape aspect ratio, so there is novelty in that as well.

[Bronty]

Just now, JesterSB said:

Power 9 is definitely well over 6 figures currently...I would expect lotus to be $250K+...sky's the limit.

The artist on a magic cards matter, but not nearly as much as how good the card is. I can go buy a Vitale art for a card for $1K without issue. Some people just view that sale as a new benchmark for cards (it's not really, but FOMO is a thing).

The basic lands from Un-sets are legal in regular magic unlike all the other cards from those sets. Other than Beta basics, they are the most popular basics in the game. An Island card from a regular set is worth about a penny, but an Unstable Island is worth about $4 (and rising). They are very very popular, and John takes extra special time with them. They are also portrait vs. landscape aspect ratio, so there is novelty in that as well.

1. agree

2. agree.... but at lower levels, outliers can happen a little easier.     I just attach zero importance to that sale.   I suspect you do as well.

3. ah, that does help to know they are legal for regular play. thx.