Do comics ever go down in price?

[october]

Actually, at one point or another, all of these things have been brought up when we've discussed this issue before. Like most forecasting, nothing is a perfect science, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't be engaging in the conversation.

 

1 Large-scale interest in pop art

 

Is going to increase comic sales... how... ? this medium has been 80 years collecting comics as opposed to other forms of 'pop art'. I'm not sure I have any idea what you're talking about.

 

2. Distribution of comics in drug stores, supermarkets, ect

 

That was 40 years ago. It's 2005, not 1965.

 

3. Increases in the minimum wage, decreases in average working hours or decreases in living costs

 

Those are adjusted to inflation, but to real value. Could you explain how on earth this is going to any way impact comic sales.

 

4. Comics embraced as a legitimate investment by non-collector, high profile speculators

 

What are you talking about? Aren't all of the big speculators dropping out right now? Legitimate investors, yeah, I see Bill Gates investing in an Action #1. Jerry Seinfeld loves Superman, so does Howard Stern, and I don't see either of those guys sinking "big money" into comics.

 

5. TPB enter mainstream culture

 

Okay, here's one I'll grant you. Sort of. Better distribution in bookstores, but where you get this idea TPBs are in mainstream culture is beyond me.

 

6. Media popularization of comics (either through TV, movie, celeb culture, ect)

 

Here's another one. Spider Man and X-Men have been great. Let's see how the rest do.

 

7. Renewed interest in reading among the young

 

reading, but not American Comics, Manga.

 

8. The “big 2” dropping cover prices

 

even more of

 

 

October with all due respect, this is a perfect example of the blindness of so many comic collectors in relation to reality.

 

First off, I never said any of these things were going to happen. Second, I never said that if they did, that they would affect the comic market at all. You completely missed my point, which was not to make a list of things that could affect the market, but to simply illustrate that there are factors that people might not consider and could end up being of huge importance. Who knows what will happen 20 years from now? How the do you know what kids will be reading in a decade? It's arrogant and foolish to assume what applies today will apply in the future. I agree about the blindness of comic collectors, apparently you didn't read my last sentence either..."Not to mention the fact that most of us have a substantial financial or emotional commitment to our hobbies…a fact that makes our assessments something less than objective."

 

Do I personally think that comics will wane in popularity? Yes. Am I sure? Of course not. I think the comic market, like any complex system, may have some surprises yet in store for us.

[awe4one]

I think they will probably be far more nostalgic about '90s music, films, videogames, extreme sports, etc. than they will about the comics of the era.

 

This has already started. People need look no further than the Western comic. At one time, it was a very in-demand genre which has seen a continual slide in the marketplace. The western comic is passé with today's collectors and there's nothing to indicate this will change.

 

There will be a time when other genres/titles will suffer the same declines as collectors find they don't relate to those comics anymore. Eventually this will include 2nd and 3rd rate superhero characters and titles by the Big Two which haven't successfully translated to other media...

 

Jim

[skybolt]

 

2. Distribution of comics in drug stores, supermarkets, ect

 

That was 40 years ago. It's 2005, not 1965.

 

 

I was buying comic books from drug stores and supermarkets until 1990 (in the Chicago area). I hadn't entered a single comic book store until 1991.

[Aman619]

Its interest in ALL things Western that has waned and practically disappeared. But thats a GENRE. It has little bearing on COMICS as a medium failing and disappearing....Western comics sold well for a time during early TV years, and so did Western toys etc. As far as comics are concerned, Westerns are a just a footnote. In comics generally. Superheroes rule. When they falter, it will take the whole ship down absent a NEW hot genre.... but good luck on that. Comics will be on the level of poetry when all thats left is the cool but personal Fantagraphics stuff is all thats left.

[skybolt]

I think they will probably be far more nostalgic about '90s music, films, videogames, extreme sports, etc. than they will about the comics of the era.

 

This has already started. People need look no further than the Western comic. At one time, it was a very in-demand genre which has seen a continual slide in the marketplace. The western comic is passé with today's collectors and there's nothing to indicate this will change.

 

There will be a time when other genres/titles will suffer the same declines as collectors find they don't relate to those comics anymore. Eventually this will include 2nd and 3rd rate superhero characters and titles by the Big Two which haven't successfully translated to other media...

 

Jim

 

I think "Western" in general has died down since the 70's. I remember a time where every damn TV show was a Western (Big Valley, Rawhide, Bonanza, Gun Smoke, etc.). People aren't that interested in western culture anymore.

[the blob]

"This has already started. People need look no further than the Western comic. At one time, it was a very in-demand genre which has seen a continual slide in the marketplace. The western comic is passé with today's collectors and there's nothing to indicate this will change."

 

Westerns in general (movies, TV) are out of vogue. Probably an overdose from the 50s and 60s. Given how many western movies were made, it's amazing how few of them are any good. The Spaghetti Western Eastwoods, a couple of John Wayne movies, a couple more classics....

[Foolkiller]

Ask Marvel and DC if that was the norm.

 

And October, I did read your entire post which basically said, hey, we can't predict the future, so why bother having the discussion. I can't agree with that philosophy.

 

 

2. Distribution of comics in drug stores, supermarkets, ect

 

That was 40 years ago. It's 2005, not 1965.

 

 

I was buying comic books from drug stores and supermarkets until 1990 (in the Chicago area). I hadn't entered a single comic book store until 1991.

[awe4one]

Its interest in ALL things Western that has waned and practically disappeared. But thats a GENRE. It has little bearing on COMICS as a medium failing and disappearing....Western comics sold well for a time during early TV years, and so did Western toys etc. As far as comics are concerned, Westerns are a just a footnote. In comics generally. Superheroes rule. When they falter, it will take the whole ship down absent a NEW hot genre.... but good luck on that. Comics will be on the level of poetry when all thats left is the cool but personal Fantagraphics stuff is all thats left.

 

There was a time when the Western genre did rule comics (1950s) and outsold Superhero comics overall. Also, Western comics survived until the late 70s. Marvel was publishing 9 Western titles in 1973 and as many as 5 until the late 70s. Now, collectors generally couldn't care less about them. There's nothing to indicate the same won't happen to the Superhero genre and in fact, there are indications it's already happening based on declining circulation numbers.

 

Jim

[october]

Ask Marvel and DC if that was the norm.

 

And October, I did read your entire post which basically said, hey, we can't predict the future, so why bother having the discussion. I can't agree with that philosophy.

 

 

2. Distribution of comics in drug stores, supermarkets, ect

 

That was 40 years ago. It's 2005, not 1965.

 

 

I was buying comic books from drug stores and supermarkets until 1990 (in the Chicago area). I hadn't entered a single comic book store until 1991.

 

I didn't mean to stifle conversation, sorry if it came out that way. Discussion is always good. I just wanted to point out that there are no sure bets or determinative factors, which seemed to be the undercurrent on a lot of posts. Carry on people, I for one am enjoying the reading.

[skybolt]

Its interest in ALL things Western that has waned and practically disappeared. But thats a GENRE. It has little bearing on COMICS as a medium failing and disappearing....Western comics sold well for a time during early TV years, and so did Western toys etc. As far as comics are concerned, Westerns are a just a footnote. In comics generally. Superheroes rule. When they falter, it will take the whole ship down absent a NEW hot genre.... but good luck on that. Comics will be on the level of poetry when all thats left is the cool but personal Fantagraphics stuff is all thats left.

 

There was a time when the Western genre did rule comics (1950s) and outsold Superhero comics overall. Also, Western comics survived until the late 70s. Marvel was publishing 9 Western titles in 1973 and as many as 5 until the late 70s. Now, collectors generally couldn't care less about them. There's nothing to indicate the same won't happen to the Superhero genre and in fact, there are indications it's already happening based on declining circulation numbers.

 

Jim

 

If the Spider-Man or X-Men movies weren't doing so well in the box office, I'd agree with you. However, you have to admit that superheroes are a lot more intriguing than a bunch of bandits running around in their cowboy hats and yelling out yeeeha!

[awe4one]

People aren't that interested in western culture anymore.

 

Exactly...and there's no reason why they won't become similiarly disinterested in the superhero genre. At least as it relates to comics. A form of superhero will exist on TV I'm sure but again, kids will get their fix there and later won't care less about the comics as they were never hooked to begin with...

 

And all of you who want to jump in and say..."I didn't start collecting until I was 18...20...26...40" can save your breath. The comics market is still viable enough, barely in alot of regards, to pull in new collectors with disposible income. That may not be the case in the future as the hobby will be seen as more niche than it currently is...

 

Jim

[october]

People aren't that interested in western culture anymore.

 

Exactly...and there's no reason why they won't become similiarly disinterested in the superhero genre.

 

Joseph Campbell might disgree with you.(even though he's dead).

[shrunkenhead]

People aren't that interested in western culture anymore.

 

Exactly...and there's no reason why they won't become similiarly disinterested in the superhero genre.

 

Joseph Campbell might disgree with you.(even though he's dead).

 

Campbell? Bah. Anti-feminist.

[FFB]

Its interest in ALL things Western that has waned and practically disappeared. But thats a GENRE. It has little bearing on COMICS as a medium failing and disappearing....Western comics sold well for a time during early TV years, and so did Western toys etc. As far as comics are concerned, Westerns are a just a footnote. In comics generally. Superheroes rule. When they falter, it will take the whole ship down absent a NEW hot genre.... but good luck on that. Comics will be on the level of poetry when all thats left is the cool but personal Fantagraphics stuff is all thats left.

 

There was a time when the Western genre did rule comics (1950s) and outsold Superhero comics overall. Also, Western comics survived until the late 70s. Marvel was publishing 9 Western titles in 1973 and as many as 5 until the late 70s. Now, collectors generally couldn't care less about them. There's nothing to indicate the same won't happen to the Superhero genre and in fact, there are indications it's already happening based on declining circulation numbers.

 

Jim

 

Just out of curiosity, what declining circulation numbers do you mean? I haven't seen total comics publishing numbers in a while, but Marvel's publishing revenue continues to experience double-digit percentage increases year over year for the last several years.

[tth2]

I question where the money, the big money, is going to come from. People just aren't going to make the kind of income and wealth gains like they have in the past with all the markets starting at such inflated levels and globalization and demographics putting the squeeze on people thinking that they're entering their prime earning/investing years.

 

Really? You think we're in a worse position now than in the 1970s, when we (i) were coming off the go go market of the 60s, which morphed into the nifty 50 bubble of the early 70s, (ii) had a decade long bear market, (iii) had high unemployment, (iv) had rampant inflation, which became stagflation by the end of the 70s and early 80s until Paul Volcker wrung inflation out of the system, and (v) were suffering the effects of globalization as Japanese car and electronics manufacturers started taking market share from American companies? And yet during that period the prices of comics kept rising and record-breaking prices were being paid for big ticket books.

 

I'm not saying that comics should or will keep appreciating right now, certainly not at the pace of the last few years. I'm just saying that there is less of a connection between the surrounding economy and our little hobby than you make out to be, and also that we're not nearly in as bad a shape as we were in 1973.

[COI]

I question where the money, the big money, is going to come from.

 

I may be wrong, but I don't think there would be enough cashflow TODAY to sustain higher prices if Brulato, Schmell, or other BSD's decided to get rid of their collections on the open market. How many NM+ SA Marvel's could the market possibly take?

[skybolt]

I question where the money, the big money, is going to come from.

 

I may be wrong, but I don't think there would be enough cashflow TODAY to sustain higher prices if Brulato, Schmell, or other BSD's decided to get rid of their collections on the open market. How many NM+ SA Marvel's could the market possibly take?

 

I don't know, but let's find out.

[tth2]

I question where the money, the big money, is going to come from.

 

I may be wrong, but I don't think there would be enough cashflow TODAY to sustain higher prices if Brulato, Schmell, or other BSD's decided to get rid of their collections on the open market. How many NM+ SA Marvel's could the market possibly take?

 

Sounds right to me, and I keep looking for evidence that we've hit saturation point. Yet, Doug's been selling down some of his collection and seems to be attracting record prices for his books. Similarly, that was the Chocolate Man's X-Men run on ComicLink last year, and again there seemed to be no shortage of buyers at record prices. When the Eides JIM run went up on eBay, same story again. Jeff Williams' TOS 39 didn't sell at the asking price on eBay, but apparently he was able to sell it offline at what was still a record price. I have no doubt that if Mark Arrand put his TOS run up for sale all at once, or Brulato or Schmell with their FFs, that we'd see record prices, particularly for the earlier issues.

 

Maybe it's because they get absorbed by multiple buyers, none of whom could buy a whole run but each of whom can buy significant chunks? Or there are a lot more closet BSDs out there than we realize?

[adamstrange]

However, I did think it worthwhile to address the question of age of the collectors. Tim, if your point about GA collectors is they must be 50 or 60, then realize that they pretty much missed the GA as kids. A 60 year old was born in 1945 and would remember reading comics from say age 6 on up with the more memorable years being between 8 - 12. Their memories would include ECs and the first SA book, Showcase 4. Those really aren't the same type of books as the GA. Also, I would be ecstatic if all those under 50 left the market as they've been big competition for me.

 

Good points, Adam, but I think those in their 50s and 60s are still old enough to have proximity with GA for that to be their core era. That is, perhaps they weren't old enough to buy Action #1 off the newsstand, but when they became old enough to start seriously collecting they wouldn't have purchased Atomic Age or early SA books because those were their "moderns", and therefore the challenge for them would have been to acquire books from 10-15 years earlier.

 

To analogize to myself (and you based on our conversations), we weren't old enough to buy much SA off the newsstand and got most of our exposure to SA and GA from reprints that we read during the 70s. BAs, which technically were our era, were no challenge because they were our "moderns". Thus, we would be part of the SA core market, in the same way that someone born in 1945 would be part of the GA core market.

 

There was a poll on how old GA collectors were in the "Polls" section and there were quite a few under 50 and 40.

I don't think a poll taken on an internet site provides a very representative sample. Simply being on the internet skews the demographics dramatically towards a younger audience. Also, and no offense is intended to anyone here, but how many GA BSDs participate in these forums? In my estimation maybe only 2.

 

I understand your point about people looking for "slightly earlier" material and I believe that they and the folks who look to regain what they grew up with will make up the vast majority of collectors. I don't fit the mold of either of those. My very first want list had quite a few GA books on it as well as a ton of silver. The silver was on the list as much for reading material (reprints were much tougher to find compared to getting DC Archives or Marvel Masterworks) as for collecting. I was ecstatic at each new Mystery in Space because there was another Adam Strange story to read.

 

The subset of the population that I consider myself part of is the one that looks for the earliest or most unusual. I used to have a 180? penny (worn to death) when I was kid in Jr. High because old was cool. I had U.S. stamps, but they were from 1851 to 1869 because those were the cool (and affordable) old ones. In both cases, I didn't collect the "slightly earlier". What I was trying to point out in my earlier post was that I have seen this type of collector occur in subsequent generations, such that it gives me some confidence in the continuance of some level of interest in the kind of books I like. I do know some of the BSDs in GA and by no means are they all 50+. Frankly if everyone under 50 would just leave the market, I would have such an easier time finding affordable deals.

 

All that said, I've do make many fewere predictions on the market as I've been quite wrong before, and I'm not afraid to admit it. I never thought the SA Marvels would get to the level that they have post-CGC. I'm confident it can't continue on too long, but that's more about the math than any socio-demographic-economic trend. That is, you can't have prices double every year for 100 hundred as the valuation of even a single book would be astronomical.

 

In response to delekkerste:

My general prediction regarding the US economy is that it will continue to improve. There will be some dips, the occasional recession/depression to keep us from getting [#@$%!!!], but historically speaking, I think it's safer betting on growth, ingenuity, and achievement than their opposites. The computer revolution isn't finished and we're only beginning to exploit what we already know about nanotechnology and biotech. I'd be happy to go into specifics on this, but on some other board. This is my FUN place to visit and I don't want to get into the flame wars over economic policy and history.

[adamstrange]

I question where the money, the big money, is going to come from.

 

I may be wrong, but I don't think there would be enough cashflow TODAY to sustain higher prices if Brulato, Schmell, or other BSD's decided to get rid of their collections on the open market. How many NM+ SA Marvel's could the market possibly take?

 

Sounds right to me, and I keep looking for evidence that we've hit saturation point. Yet, Doug's been selling down some of his collection and seems to be attracting record prices for his books. Similarly, that was the Chocolate Man's X-Men run on ComicLink last year, and again there seemed to be no shortage of buyers at record prices. When the Eides JIM run went up on eBay, same story again. Jeff Williams' TOS 39 didn't sell at the asking price on eBay, but apparently he was able to sell it offline at what was still a record price. I have no doubt that if Mark Arrand put his TOS run up for sale all at once, or Brulato or Schmell with their FFs, that we'd see record prices, particularly for the earlier issues.

 

Maybe it's because they get absorbed by multiple buyers, none of whom could buy a whole run but each of whom can buy significant chunks? Or there are a lot more closet BSDs out there than we realize?

 

This trend for the CGC SA high-grade Marvels hasn't been very long so it's always possible the last suckers just got in.

 

At the same time, availability can fuel demand, while scarcity can actually destroy it.