Do comics ever go down in price?

[drbanner]

This should be interesting.

 

Amazingly, I think I agree with his rant more than I disagree with it.

 

I DO think there is a floor of value for SA keys because there is constant demand. I know I demand them, just can't exactly afford them , but I'm working on that.

 

And I DO agree that hunting down and enjoying your collection is what matters most, but you also have to make smart purchases and consider how much you put into collecting versus investing for retirement.

 

I'm pretty much in agreement with most of the sentiments as well, high-grade pre-1965 and "vintage/key" pre-1965 books have pretty much stabilized (if not slowly appreciated) in price since the initial CGC surge of '01/'02, while modern/hot books have peaked and plummeted as they always have.

 

I have to wonder what the prognosis is for 9.4/9.6/9.8 Key Bronze Age books...I do know that most of those types of books I sold back in '02 (at the peak of "The Sky is falling, the crash is coming!" mania here on the boards) are selling for as much, or more, today than they were back then.

 

On the other hand, post-1965 commons (even in high grade) have dropped significantly. If it keeps up, pretty soon I'll be able to buy all those books back again!!

[asmfan]

i don't want any to misconstrue what I wrote. as a finance professional, I say INVEST in a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, etc. plow money into your 401k, use whatever standard, traditional means are available to try and get a return on your savings $$$. I'm NOT standing on a soapbox telling people they should invest in comics and expect to get a positive return on their $$.

 

but when it comes to discretionary income, if one is going to spend a lot of it on comics (as i do), ESPECIALLY expensive comics (relative to your personal income level), I just think it pays to think twice before making a purchase. and for those who spend a bit more than they should on comics (myself included), enough that disqualifies the funds they put into comics from the "discretionary income" category, it especially pays to think before purchasing.

 

some people spend all of their money on cars, others buy expensive clothes, etc. my point is that buying comics, done intelligently, is much better than spending your discretionary income on depreciating assets. let's say you spend $50k on comics and, for reasonable market prices, buy a Hulk #1, Fantastic Four #1, [insert a few more Silver-Age keys here]. five years later, for whatever reason, you decide to sell them. maybe you'll make money on your $50k, maybe you won't. but chances are very low that you'll only get back $25k, or even that you'll get back only $40k. in fact, you'll probably recoup most of your money if you sell them. now how about that car you could have bought... what will you get back on that after five years? NO WAY will you get back half of what you spent. THAT's what I was talking about above. due to many underlying factors, there will always be demand for these comics which create a floor price for them. in terms of things you could spend your money on, there are MANY that are worse.

 

but each to their own... if someone wants to buy a collection of modern comics for $10k because they want a lifetime supply of reading material, more power to them. they just should never expect to recoup any of that money. that's all I was trying to say to BleekBob.

[delekkerste]

how about that car you could have bought... what will you get back on that after five years? NO WAY will you get back half of what you spent.

 

Nothing against you personally, asmfan, but I really dislike comparisons like this. I own a car. I own a lot of comics. A lot of my comics have appreciated in value. My car has depreciated in value. But, I also get a LOT of use out of my car. It adds a LOT of value to my life - I have an awesome job that I wouldn't be able to get to without it and it also gives me the option to go to places I otherwise wouldn't have gone (such as my planned trip to the Frazetta Museum this summer).

 

I love comics, but should I, for example, really go out and buy a Hulk #181 CGC 9.6 instead of taking a fun vacation on a beach somewhere? Once it's over, the price of the vacation goes to zero, while presumably the Hulk #181 won't have changed much in value. However, when I'm on my deathbed, I'm thinking I'll probably be reminiscing fondly about the hot babe I hooked up with on that vacation and not about how great it was to own that Hulk #181. And you can't put a price on that.

[Norrin_Radd]

This should be interesting.

 

I think this article I wrote for Lyria Comic Exchange pretty much sums up my thoughts. Please forgive the sometimes overly critical tone:

 

http://www.lyriacomicexchange.com/stories.asp?stories_id=52

 

I would add that I think all of the points in the article are still valid and that all parabolic rises are eventually corrected - but, markets can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent. And, that it's easy to say that one would buy more at lower levels, but that those lower levels the next time around could very well be accompanied by changes in other variables (e.g., increased job insecurity, higher interest rates, falling home prices, etc.) that should be considered.

 

Aren't home prices parabolic if you look at a chart of the last 40 years? Are housing prices due to crash dramatically?

 

Ah but there I go comparing a necessity with a luxury item.

 

What about stock prices and corporate earnings and, for that matter, personal incomes? Aren't they parabolic if you look over the last 40 years? In fact, aren't most price series parabolic if you look at the long-term picture?

 

I'm not trying to say that you're wrong, but it seems to me that any price series can look parabolic over a long time period (partially due to inflation). And the more incomes rise, the higher prices rise for goods (including comics). In the case of comics, as long as there is a strong demand (with fluctuation), prices will escalate due to a relatively small fixed supply. IMO.

 

I'm interested in hearing your comments.

[blazingbob]

We cannot all be the studmaster that you are. We bow in your studliness!

[Stronguy]

In the 70s and 80s books usually were listed in a 10(nm)-5(fn)-2.5(gd) structure. In the late 90s they went to a 10-3-1 structure. Now they appear to be approaching a 10(nm-)-5(vf)-2.5(fn)-1(gd) structure.

 

So it's not that the books go down in value it's that OS keeps jacking with the overall value structure.

[Foolkiller]

A slight addition to Gene's overall point which I agree with: Ultimately, the two things that any comic book can really bring you are: 1) a good story with some nice art and 2) pride in owning the book. Other than that, there is very little real value associated with one single comic book. If you are sinking thousands and thousands and thousands of dollars into comic books at the sacrifice of taking vacations, enjoying life and other things (as I suspect many comic fans do, whether they want to admit or not) then I see that as a problem. When you look at the paper sitting in a box on a floor, and then consider how much money you have tied up in it, the collection brings little enjoyment on any kind of regular basis. You are able to say, yes, I own many books, and I like to take them out and look at them once in awhile.

 

Although I believe comics are a fantastic hobby, establishing a balance is best, and I will never view sinking an enormous amount of my disposable income into them as being wise. There are other things I enjoy much more. I spent yesterday in NYC at MoMA as well as seeing some other sights... there's a problem when you start thinking... hey that could have bought me a VF FF, and I'd still have the book!

[asmfan]

A very thoughtful article, I agree with many points. we may indeed be on the cusp of a bubble for many comic prices. again here I point more to modern, bronze-age and later Silver-Age titles. but there are several differences between the current price run-up and the stock market bubble. historically, many people have had much if not all of their net worth tied up in stocks and have been are dependent on the stock market for their retirement $$. Correct me if I'm wrong, since this is a key assumption in what I'm about to say, but I do not believe that this has been the case with comics. comics are, for most, a hobby, something on which to spend discretionary income. especially for those who are regularly buy very expensive books. successful lawyers, doctors, etc. are spending these astronomical sums for books. these same people are the ones who will spend $30 million to own a Van Gogh, or one of those expensive eggs (someone help me here, what are they called again?). when the stock market crashes, desperate selling ensues because people's lives flash before their eyes. there goes little Billy's college money, there goes my dream home, there goes [major thing I've been saving for]. prices drop, etc.

 

who are the desperate sellers going to be in comics? is Mark Zaid going to freak out and dump his collection on the market. Is "the Dentist" going to do the same thing? what about all of the others? what about much smaller time collectors like me? am I about to go running for the hills and sell all of my comics? assuming the economy doesn't come crashing down, in which case everything is out the window including comics prices, I believe there is a solid floor on CERTAIN comics. because I'll tell you what, if prices start falling precipitously on something like Amazing Fantasy 15, I will definitely be watching the market for my chance to get a nice copy!

 

I am not bullish like this on all comics, just the ones I am familiar with, which are early Silver-Age marvels.

 

one other point where we disagree is the following:

 

"Sure, superheroes are now big business on the silver screen and in videogames, but the major publishers are doing far too little to groom the next generation of readers and collectors of actual comic books themselves. To think that a kid who plays Spidey videogames and liked the movie is going to have a hankering to want to buy an Amazing Fantasy #15 for 6 (or 7!) figures in the future is not even close to credible. There is a collector mentality and mindset that is simply not being developed in today’s interactive, disposable society."

 

heck, I grew up playing videogames. I still play video games frequently (ahem). I think the same kind of imagination that likes to get lost in a video game enjoys reading, learning about, and collecting comics. I actually got into comics when I bought a pack of Marvel cards as a kid and started reading about all of the characters and about the universe. Up to that time, I had probably read only a handful of comics. and I still have yet to read more than a handful of modern comics. I bought them just to collect them, but what I really loved to read then and now are the reprints I have of the old books. I've read those countless times. I haven't bought a modern comic since 1992. Yet I still love comics.

 

In short, I think that the hobby, in terms of collecting, is around to stay. will it be like baseball cards, where the market became over-saturated and primarily only the really old, rare cards are worth anything? maybe. will people always care about a 9.2 vs. a 9.6 vs. a 9.8? not sure. I personally could care less about a stress-line or two. i think that there is a nice, stable floor value for early, pre-1965 Silver-Age Marvel comics.

 

but that's just my opinion.

[delekkerste]

Aren't home prices parabolic if you look at a chart of the last 40 years? Are housing prices due to crash dramatically?

 

 

 

What about stock prices and corporate earnings and, for that matter, personal incomes? Aren't they parabolic if you look over the last 40 years? In fact, aren't most price series parabolic if you look at the long-term picture?

 

No. That is not a parabolic price rise. It's a big price rise, but it breaks down to a reasonable ~10% compounded per year (but, there is every reason for this to slow down given the present level of corporate earnings and stock valuations). Comic and comic art prices have risen far more than that in a short span - just look at the "15 years ago" thread from this past week. THAT is a parabolic price rise. And look at the appreciation of just the last 5 years.

 

You have to ask yourself whether all the positive factors in place are going to repeat themselves in the coming decade or two. The Internet and CGC were paradigm-shifting factors but are now reflected in prices. Income, debt and demographic trends are going the wrong way now. Readership levels are rebounding, but from a tiny base - is this sustainable in the long-term? Cultural trends are favoring videogames and other interactive, digital, disposable entertainment. Comic movies are still being made, but we're probably already past the peak of maximum hype/excitement. And what happens if other asset markets start deflating (when interest rates finally rise...or do you believe rates will stay this low forever?)

 

 

In the case of comics, as long as there is a strong demand (with fluctuation), prices will escalate due to a relatively small fixed supply. IMO.

 

I don't think there is strong demand and, due to both hobby and demographic trends, the supply/demand imbalance is going to look a lot worse 5-10 years from now. Right now, I believe, is the "Golden Age of Selling Your Collection" - I'd be surprised if it's going to get much better than this. I've personally been selling my books since last fall and continue to do so.

[delekkerste]

We cannot all be the studmaster that you are. We bow in your studliness!

 

Bob, you are my new hero after the smackdown you laid on BassGMan in that other thread yesterday.

[the blob]

"maybe you'll make money on your $50k, maybe you won't. but chances are very low that you'll only get back $25k, or even that you'll get back only $40k."

 

if you wildly overpaid when you spent your $50K, I don't think this is true

 

i think comparing this to a car purchase is a bad one. routinely going out to fancy restaurants and spending $200 is probably a better one. i wish I had done a little bit less fancy restaurant going when I was making more money, either saving the dough or buying quality comics. i'm sure my wife (then girlfriend/fiance) wouldn't have noticed if we only went out fancy once a month rather than three.

 

vacations, on the other hand, i don't regret spending the money on if I had fun.

[Foolkiller]

gene,

I think there is a widening gap between supply and demand on the comic book front, but I think there are definitely enough collectors to sustain a "floor" as ASM fan has suggested for the forseeable future. In terms of high grade, if you wanted to maximize the prices realized, now's the time to be selling 9.4s, 9.6s and the like. I don't see prices on those books rising anytime soon, and stabilizing and dropping slightly for the rest of the grades.

[Norrin_Radd]

Exactly. There should be a balance.

 

But on the other hand, buying thousands of dollars of comics and viewing them as pure entertainment with "very little real value" is unrealistic.

 

Everything has a price and you should care what that price is, otherwise you might as well say "I don't care what price I pay for a book I want". That is not smart monetary decision. And like or not, expensive comics are a monetary decision.

 

Again, IMO.

 

My bottom line on comics expenditure is buy within your means and know what you're buying. I don't care for either extreme view of buying expensive comics as "an investment" or expensive comics are only an "entertainment expense". I'm somewhere in the middle of that scale.

[DiceX]

Although I believe comics are a fantastic hobby, establishing a balance is best, and I will never view sinking an enormous amount of my disposable income into them as being wise.

 

I couldn't agree more.

A few weeks ago I used some money I'd saved up from comic sales to buy a pinball machine. It was money I was going to use to sink back into another comic, but the opportunity arose and I couldn't pass it up.

My entire family has had the most wonderful time playing it, and in my opinion, it was the best comic money I've ever spent. I can't imagine a book I would rather have.

 

Don't get me wrong; I'm still going to buy comics.

But I've already planned on where I'll be putting the new pool table and arcade game.

As a matter of fact...I think I'll drop my comic standards a few grades and sell some books I've been holding to speed up the process.

[BleekerBob]

I bought some relatively expensive books 8 years ago when I stopped collecting. I have discovered my purchases from back then have appreciated nicely. Having not followed the market for years I was wondering if prices fluctuated or just went straight up? I have also discoved that I own a few PLOD-ED books which is a nice kick in the pants. Not knowing the market I wonder if I'm getting back in at the Top?

[asmfan]

nothing personal taken. I also happen to own a car that the average American would consider nice. I also happen to enjoy taking nice vacations. I went to Brazil last winter, St. Maarten last spring and am going to Miami in a few weeks.

 

it all comes down to what you get a lot of personal enjoyment out of. I get quite a bit out of my comics. I show them to guests in my apartment, I read the old stories (reprints of course), and I spend time discussing and debating about them on these message boards. I also enjoy bargain hunting for books on eBay (not saying that i've really found any unfortunately, but it's fun to hunt).

 

I don't spend enough on comics that I'm sacrificing any other part of my life. I am getting married this summer, buying a house next year, etc. Now, if I had a choice between buying the newest flat-screen plasma television or buying a nicer copy of Amazing Fantasy 15, I would go for the latter. of course now I have to negotiate for these types of things with my fiancee, but my point is that it's all discretionary.

 

and i agree that finding and maintaining a balance is best. in fact it seems that most are in agreement there. and I never said I would sink down any money for a CGC 9.6 Hulk #181. In fact I sold my copy of that book (which I bought in the late 80's and graded at an 8.0) last summer.

[delekkerste]

who are the desperate sellers going to be in comics? is Mark Zaid going to freak out and dump his collection on the market. Is "the Dentist" going to do the same thing?

 

I don't think the financial situation of a few BSDs is reflective of the hobby as a whole. Most comic collectors out there couldn't scrounge up a few thousand bucks if their lives depended on it (like most of the population). I know a lot of guys who have a substantial portion of their net worth tied up in comics or comic art. I know people who are explicitly counting on this stuff to finance their kids future college educations, etc. I'm sure almost all of us know people like that. I was talking to a major comic art dealer over the weekend and was shocked to hear how cash-poor people in that hobby are (and I think it's even worse in comics). Credit card debt, long-term payment plans and trading one inflated asset for another is how a lot of this business seems to get done. His opinion is that the cream will continue to rise to the top, but that all those people hanging onto the rest of the stuff out there in their "retirement funds" are in for a world of hurt in the coming years.

 

 

assuming the economy doesn't come crashing down

 

That's not an assumption I'm willing to make.

 

 

heck, I grew up playing videogames. I still play video games frequently (ahem). I think the same kind of imagination that likes to get lost in a video game enjoys reading, learning about, and collecting comics.

 

I don't think this is true when you apply it to the broader population. Of course, there are always exceptions, but we need to consider whether there is the critical mass out there to absorb future supply and keep prices rising. I don't think there is.

[asmfan]

I have made many similar decisions. sometimes I go with the comic, sometimes I go with the other discretionary purchase. usually I'm happy either way. the real bottom line is that it's fun to spend $$

[shrunkenhead]

 

I don't think there is strong demand and, due to both hobby and demographic trends, the supply/demand imbalance is going to look a lot worse 5-10 years from now. Right now, I believe, is the "Golden Age of Selling Your Collection" - I'd be surprised if it's going to get much better than this. I've personally been selling my books since last fall and continue to do so.

 

I think you're making the mistake of grouping "comics" together in one big pile, as if all comics are created equal, all comics appeal to the same hypothetical comic-buyer, etc. Quality books are not going to cease to be desirable in a mere 5 to 10 years. There's just no way that's going to happen. Fads and trends, manufactured rarities, uber-high grade slabs of common books, yes, demand for these things will cycle in and out and eventually slow (as it should). I think the safest bets are key golden age books in the VF+ish zone...they're high grade enough to attract big spenders, yet one doesn't fall prey to the hazards of the multiple game (i.e a 9.6 this week is worth the 9.4 price next week, and so forth).

 

Like so many on this board, I have sadly witnessed a steep decline in comic readership. So yes, that frontier of comicbooks may be coming to a close in the next 10 or 20 years. And that's a shame. But comic collectability and comic readership are two different animals. I can't see the big spenders suddenly passing on superman books in the tens of thousands of dollars just because kids aren't buying 3-dollar books anymore at the local comic con. It's two different worlds, entirely, and I think it's a mistake to lump the two worlds together.

[sfilosa]

there's a problem when you start thinking... hey that could have bought me a VF FF, and I'd still have the book!

 

Why is that a problem?

 

The world is full of OPPORTUNITY COST. And reconsidering what you've done in the past, is the way for you to evaluate your choices in the future.

 

LET ME SUM THIS UP FOR EVERYONE:

 

NO ONE, and I mean NO ONE, knows if COMIC VALUES are going to increase / decrease or stay flat in price.

 

THAT'S A FACT.