Do comics ever go down in price?

[delekkerste]

Quality books are not going to cease to be desirable in a mere 5 to 10 years. There's just no way that's going to happen.

 

I didn't say that they would cease to be desirable, only that the supply/demand imbalance will have grown by then, with net supply pressuring the market, IMO.

 

I do think, however, that it would be a mistake to believe that the Golden Age market will be immune from the various factors affecting the rest of the hobby and the economy. It does not exist in a vacuum.

[Foolkiller]

wow. what an observation, no one can predict the future with 100% certainty. thanks for the news flash.

 

 

I shouldn't be that harsh, but c'mon, that does seem a bit obvious that no one knows what the future holds.

 

It's a problem because you are overvaluing a piece of paper v. real life experiences. It is experiences, not material objects, that give value to life. While a collection can bring happiness to your life, it is not the object in and of itself that ought to add value, but rather what does that object do to enhance your life. The stories and artwork definitely give me a certain level of pleasure. When you look at the stories or the cover artwork or the book itself, it is that feeling we are measuring that adds value to our lives. To me, paying an insane amount of money (so you can pursue your 9.(x) and continuously sinking the money into comics needs to be proportional to the joy you will derive from it.

 

I get the sense many comic collectors are simply addicts simply seeking their next fix without deriving anything more than a momentary thrill from the idea that they have purchased. Hence the lack of appreciation for their books and their cotinuing desire to satiate their needs.

 

 

there's a problem when you start thinking... hey that could have bought me a VF FF, and I'd still have the book!

 

Why is that a problem?

 

The world is full of OPPORTUNITY COST. And reconsidering what you've done in the past, is the way for you to evaluate your choices in the future.

 

LET ME SUM THIS UP FOR EVERYONE:

 

NO ONE, and I mean NO ONE, knows if COMIC VALUES are going to increase / decrease or stay flat in price.

 

THAT'S A FACT.

[Norrin_Radd]

I get the sense many comic collectors are simply addicts simply seeking their next fix without deriving anything more than a momentary thrill from the idea that they have purchased. Hence the lack of appreciation for their books and their cotinuing desire to satiate their desires.

 

It happens to most collectors at some point. But I have become very selective and I only keep the comics/art that I truly enjoy in my permanent collection.

[Aman619]

Weve been over this ground before, so I wanna just comment on the diminishing future prospects of the comics collector population. Theres no argument that sales have decreaased along with readership, especially amongst kids. And its the kids that we need to grow up into reader/collectors. But, Ours has always been a thin community, very thin with only as many as 500,000 readers at any one time. Thats TINY in the scheme of things. So as scary as the dropoff in kid readership seems to portend going forward, our total numbers are not all that hard to replenish as there have never been all that many of us to begin with. It is conceivable (to me) that new OLDER reader collectors familiar with comics and superheroes can and will join the club in sufficient numbers to ease the continual loss at some healthy percentage (20. 30 40% perhaps) This would stretch out and forestall the eventual demise of comics as collectibles. And even then, the special key books will retain values for as long as 20th century paper collectibles are viable.

 

of course a worldwide depression could happen at any moment and we'll be burning our comics for heat like stock certificates and Weimar Deutchmarks once were. Who knows?

[Aman619]

But comic collectability and comic readership are two different animals. I can't see the big spenders suddenly passing on superman books in the tens of thousands of dollars just because kids aren't buying 3-dollar books anymore at the local comic con. It's two different worlds, entirely, and I think it's a mistake to lump the two worlds together.

 

welll..... not entirely. Superman yes, but many other heroes' comics from the 1940s?? I pass on them every day because they have IMO diminishing returns precisely DUE to the continual severe decline in demand and therefore prices for them going forward. So there IS a tie between what sells today as new material and what is sellable in vintage comics. If the character is no longer a viable going concern, the back issues are living on borrowed time.

[skybolt]

of course a worldwide depression could happen at any moment and we'll be burning our comics for heat like stock certificates and Weimar Deutchmarks once were. Who knows?

 

I'll let my hands turn into popsicles before I burn my ASM #1.

[sfilosa]

t's a problem because you are overvaluing a piece of paper v. real life experiences. It is experiences, not material objects, that give value to life.

 

Once again, why?

 

I'm not picking on you, but the choices I decide to make are MY choices.

 

No one can tell me taking a vacation is better then buying a comic book. It might be for you, but it also might be that owning a BMW is more important then owning a comic book, or eating out every night, or a billion other choices.

 

Collecting Comic Books IS A LIFE EXPERIENCE. Chatting on these boards is a LIFE EXPERIENCE. Going to Conventions or LCS or hang out with collectors showing each other books IS A LIFE EXPERIENCE.

[Foolkiller]

Collecting Comic Books IS A LIFE EXPERIENCE. Chatting on these boards is a LIFE EXPERIENCE. Going to Conventions or LCS or hang out with collectors showing each other books IS A LIFE EXPERIENCE.

 

I agree with this portion of your statement. The things you are relating regarding Conventions and showing books are all things that are benefits derived from collecting, but do not relate to my earlier point that you invest a large amount of money into an object that does not directly give you those experiences. Going to a con, showing books to other collectors -- those are experiences, yes I agree, but do you need to sink vast sums of money into the collection in order to enjoy it? Where does the value derive from it. If you spend $10k on a comic book, that's fine, so long as there is a proper value associated with it. I question whether comic collectors are simply hoarding acquisitions, or whether they are truly deriving enjoyment. This isn't a problem limited to comics, but is the subject matter we happen to be discussing. You are free to make any choice you like as to where you put your money. I haven't criticized you (or anyone else) for deciding to place money into a book.

 

What I am questioning is, examine the utility of the other material goods -- eating out generally provides human contact and interaction among (presumably) friends, a BMW gives you utility plus pleasure in a direct way.

 

What I am questioning is what pleasure a $10k ASM 14 9.6 gives you? What joy do you derive from it other than simply saying I own it. I am not questioning your ability to make the decision or your right to choose to spend your money on whatever you wish. I am merely questioning the wisdom.

 

If you feel that $10k of pleasure is derived from the ASM 14 as opposed to a $2k copy, then by all means purchase one.

[BradleyX2]

I'll let my hands turn into popsicles before I burn my ASM #1.

 

 

Too late... don't you know it's already on fire?

 

 

[skybolt]

t's a problem because you are overvaluing a piece of paper v. real life experiences. It is experiences, not material objects, that give value to life.

 

Once again, why?

 

I'm not picking on you, but the choices I decide to make are MY choices.

 

No one can tell me taking a vacation is better then buying a comic book. It might be for you, but it also might be that owning a BMW is more important then owning a comic book, or eating out every night, or a billion other choices.

 

Collecting Comic Books IS A LIFE EXPERIENCE. Chatting on these boards is a LIFE EXPERIENCE. Going to Conventions or LCS or hang out with collectors showing each other books IS A LIFE EXPERIENCE.

 

Everytime I feel bad about spending tons of money on comic books, I turn on the "Antique Road Show" to get me back to my senses again.

 

A letter from Virginia asking about Santa Clause worth $50K, a broken down Tiffany lamp worth $75K, Indian pottery going for $100K (sorry Chuck), a beaten down table manufactured in Boston 200 years ago worth $250K, a tissue of toilet paper used by Abe Lincoln in 1863 worth....... o.k., now I'm exaggerating.

 

Collecting is part of human nature. I've been doing it since I was 4 years old. From hot wheels, to small pastic animals, to Bazooka Joe bubble gum wraps, to World Cup Soccer team photos, to Baseball cards, and of course comic books. I like doing other things, but I also love collecting comic books.

[Foolkiller]

I want to be clear that I'm not attacking collecting, or spending money on comics or collecting in general. I'm not some sort of monk preaching anti materialism.

 

Obviously, I spend lots and lots of money each year on comic books.

 

But, I guess what I'm just questioning is whether or not we stop and ask ourselves whether or not we are garnering from our collection a particular amount of satisfaction and not simply an endless pursuit of the next object without asking ourselves... for what purpose?

[Aman619]

What I am questioning is what pleasure a $10k ASM 14 9.6 gives you? What joy do you derive from it other than simply saying I own it.

 

heres one answer: In x years we will all be 65. So we all have choices to make. SOme will choose to be able to sit there remembering all the dinners vacations etc they took as fond memories. Ohters will pull out their ASM14 that increased in value or is still worth the 10K they spent getting it.

The ones with memories will then go get their food stamps and buy some more cat food cause theyre still hungry, having always "lived it up" all their lives and spent every dollar on LIFE EXPERIENCES and vacations etc.. The others will slowly sell off their collection (read: savings) and make it to the early-bird specisal for a nice lean roast beef with the missus.

 

And and grasshopper analogy..... comics style. Assuming theres no world wide crash depression!

[jbud73]

I always like reading what Gene has to say on the boards because his perspective contains two items that are in somewhat short supply around here - that includes my perspective which is often skewed.

 

That is he discusses things in Macroeconomic terms and does so without allowing emotion to enter into his analysis - a necessary trait in his line of work I would assume. When you look at anything from a Macro perspective and try to postulate future environments the foremost issue in your thought process should be the demographic shift that is going to take place in North America in the coming decades. IE the death of the Baby Boomers. Their is definite certainty in that. Population birth to death rates are going to hit negative values, they may be there already.

 

Based on the baby boomer certainty, or uncertainty depending on perspective there are a lot of varying opinions on what will occur in society as the swing occurs. Increased Immigration and upward migration of the next generation have been forecasted to fill some of the gap, though in what quantities? Currently, Immigration is gettting more difficult to achieve in North America for various security reasons.

 

So for comics maybe this is the financial Golden Age its hard to say. There are so many mitigating factors, many of which have been discussed on these boards. I think its safe to say that there will be less demand in the back issues market - it stands to reason that if there are less consumers overall, the % of those comsumers who are consumers of comics will also drop. The degree of decrease of course is a subject for debate. Will scarcity and new collectors fill the gap? I'm skeptical as the preservation of comics has reached sufficient height to deter this, as well the back issue market has been flushed out in almost every genre and niche, there are few surprises left.

 

The are no certainties in long term financial projections, however the demographic certaintly dictates that change will occur, in what form good question.

[skybolt]

I want to be clear that I'm not attacking collecting, or spending money on comics or collecting in general. I'm not some sort of monk preaching anti materialism.

 

Obviously, I spend lots and lots of money each year on comic books.

 

But, I guess what I'm just questioning is whether or not we stop and ask ourselves whether or not we are garnering from our collection a particular amount of satisfaction and not simply an endless pursuit of the next object without asking ourselves... for what purpose?

 

I guess each person is unique and collects comic books for different reasons. A couple of years ago I was engaged to be married, so I saved money any which way I could for a house. I stopped going on vacations with my brothers, I didn't buy new clothes as often as I used to, worked overtime, etc. When the engagement broke off, I didn't really feel like buying a house and living in it by myself. After a few months of moping around, I discovered eBay and started purchasing some mid-grade SA books for my reading pleasure. Before, I knew it, I had spent 2/3 of my savings on vintage comic books (SA and GA). For me, being involved in the pursuit of certain books helped me get over that other situation. Was that worth 2/3 of my savings...probably not, but it's worth something.

[shrunkenhead]

 

If you spend $10k on a comic book, that's fine, so long as there is a proper value associated with it. I question whether comic collectors are simply hoarding acquisitions, or whether they are truly deriving enjoyment. This isn't a problem limited to comics, but is the subject matter we happen to be discussing.

 

 

Isn't collecting in any field about "hoarding acquistions," regardless of the dollar value attached?

 

On the same token, you'd say what's the point in owning a picasso when you can go the city museum and look at one for free, yes? Not criticizing (yet ), just trying to fully understand where you're coming from, as you mention this is not a problem limited to comic collectors.

 

 

What I am questioning is, examine the utility of the other material goods -- eating out generally provides human contact and interaction among (presumably) friends, a BMW gives you utility plus pleasure in a direct way.

 

What I am questioning is what pleasure a $10k ASM 14 9.6 gives you? What joy do you derive from it other than simply saying I own it. I am not questioning your ability to make the decision or your right to choose to spend your money on whatever you wish. I am merely questioning the wisdom.

 

 

As would I, but perhaps for different reasons. I can't fully agree with your theory on "use value" and its connection to "dollar value." Indeed, your argument seems to have much less to do with comics, as the viewpoint you're putting forth is largely anti-materialistic, utilitarian, etc.

 

But what "direct way" does a BMW give pleasure? Aside from the pleasure your but realizes from having a comfy leather seat, it's still only perceived pleasure. The "pleasure" achieved from owning a BMW is still 99% mental, because we value one car as being "better" than another, even if both will take you from place to place without breaking down. So a BMW is constructed "better" than a Chevy. So what? A 9.6 is in the same way "better" than a 9.2. It's still only mental.

 

The utilitarian argument goes only so far, though I do see the legitimate beef you have with collecting (not just comics) as a means of entertainment. But I have a problem with judging collecting goals as being "lesser" life experiences than eating out, travelling, etc. Yes, in most cases I'd rather travel than spend 10k on a book, but that's my own choice, and I don't think it's fair to frown upon someone else who simply doesn't like to travel or is just pleased as punch with mac &cheese. (The Publix brand m&c ain't half bad, actually).

 

I tend to look at my collecting goals as accomplishments of sorts. Say there's a book out there that I want. It costs 1k. I'm not rich, so I have to work and pinch my pennies and sell other books in my collection to raise that 1k. If I manage to do so and gain the book I wanted, then I feel as if I've achieved something. No, I haven't cured cancer, but it's an achievement nonetheless.

 

Human beings take pleasure in "things," hence the commandment "thou shalt not covet." It's not a new idea, or a new problem. I don't think there's anything wrong with pride in ownership, provided that it doesn't supplant a love and respect for human beings. I get a little thrill knowing that I have a shortbox of golden age comics stashed away. It's a rare thing, something that most folks don't have...my own personal "treasure chest," regardless of how much the books are or aren't "worth" in terms of market value.

 

And there's no way in hell I'd give up my comics for a BMW. Bleagh.

[sfilosa]

Well Said!!!!!

[Norrin_Radd]

So for comics maybe this is the financial Golden Age its hard to say. There are so many mitigating factors, many of which have been discussed on these boards. I think its safe to say that there will be less demand in the back issues market - it stands to reason that if there are less consumers overall, the % of those comsumers who are consumers of comics will also drop. The degree of decrease of course is a subject for debate. Will scarcity and new collectors fill the gap? I'm skeptical as the preservation of comics has reached sufficient height to deter this, as well the back issue market has been flushed out in almost every genre and niche, there are few surprises left.

 

The are no certainties in long term financial projections, however the demographic certaintly dictates that change will occur, in what form good question.

 

I think a growing fan base in Europe and elsewhere may well make up for any declining American fan base. That's my macro view.

 

 

Here are my thoughts on why comic collecting will not die.

 

 

A) Comic books are NOT a fad that is going to fade away with this generation.

 

I believe comic book characters are always going to continue to be a part of popular culture. They are deeply ingrained in American culture (have been since their origin during the Depression). They are as American as apple pie. Saying that they are just fads that will mysteriously become unpopular and die out is tantimount to saying that Rock'n'Roll and fast food are fads that will die out. I don't see that happening. Adults pass on their passions and interests to their kids (good and bad) whether they mean to or not. What we grow up with is what we know and love and have nostalgia for as adults.

 

 

B) I believe that there will always be a certain (fairly stable) percentage of the population that are collectors.

 

For many, it is inherited. For some, it is not. I am a 3rd generation collector. My father collected MANY different things including coins, which is what peaked my interest when I was younger. I didn't really collect anything until I was 30 years old. I finally had some discretionary income and started surfing eBay. I got into coin collecting and assembled a nice little collection. But I grew bored with the hobby because I couldn't afford the true rarities that I wanted to collect (e.g. it would take a long time for me to save enough money to afford something like a Dahlonega gold piece in nice condition). So I stopped collecting. Then in 2001, there was alot of buzz going around about comic book collecting and the newly-formed grading company. So I started surfing eBay and exploring this new collecting territory. I was blown away. I did some research and read about the hobby. Got interested in the Bronze Age and started buying some raw BA keys. Now, I'm mostly into reading with the occasional purchase of BA keys.

 

The point is that there will always be a percentage of the population that are collectors (especially in America). And as kids who loved watching comic book superheroes grow up, some of them will discover the collectible back issue market and get involved in the hobby in some way. The number of people involved in the hobby may fluctuate, but there will remain a sizeable population of devoted fans.

 

 

C) Concerning the health of the new comic market. It will survive.

 

There are too many adults with discretionary funds who spend money every month for it to die out. Are they things that could be done to make it healthier? Yes. But adult readers/collectors will never let comics fade away. There are too many fans who love reading them. And as long as there is a market, someone will create comics to sell to that market.

 

Those are my thoughts.

[Foolkiller]

[quoteSo a BMW is constructed "better" than a Chevy. So what? A 9.6 is in the same way "better" than a 9.2. It's still only mental.

]

 

A BMW is not constructed better than a chevy in the same a 9.6 and a 9.2 is. The difference in a comic book is purely aesthetic. In a BMW it is performance, handling, comfort, reliability, durability and safety. Those all go to the functionality of the car, not just it's eye appeal.

 

Human beings take pleasure in "things," hence the commandment "thou shalt not covet." It's not a new idea, or a new problem. I don't think there's anything wrong with pride in ownership, provided that it doesn't supplant a love and respect for human beings. I get a little thrill knowing that I have a shortbox of golden age comics stashed away. It's a rare thing, something that most folks don't have...my own personal "treasure chest," regardless of how much the books are or aren't "worth" in terms of market value.

 

Overall, I agree with your assessment here, however, I just don't place enough value on pride in ownership, and don't see the intrinsic value in it.

 

In the case of the post where they mentioned a painting, one of the differences is whether or not you display it, look at it, enjoy etc., owning a Picasso or Rembrandt or any other artist usually means you can display and look at the piece for your own enjoyment. And my logic would remain the same, if you would derive $2.5 million worth of enjoyment from a Picasso, why pay that? Why not simply look at it in a museum? But if you are going to display it each day and enjoy it, and it gives you a great deal of pleasure, then by all means do so:

 

What I am bottom line questioning is whether comic book collectors are really deriving the pleasure equal to their dollars invested... I see a lot of them as simply wanting to acquire the "next" book.

[shrunkenhead]

[quoteSo a BMW is constructed "better" than a Chevy. So what? A 9.6 is in the same way "better" than a 9.2. It's still only mental.

]

 

 

Maybe ya got me on the "safety" and "reliability" part, but I still think "performance" is only mental. Valuing a smoother ride is still just an aesthetic experience. But I'm not trying to split hairs. For the most part I do see the "value" in what you're arguing.

 

[jbud73]

So for comics maybe this is the financial Golden Age its hard to say. There are so many mitigating factors, many of which have been discussed on these boards. I think its safe to say that there will be less demand in the back issues market - it stands to reason that if there are less consumers overall, the % of those comsumers who are consumers of comics will also drop. The degree of decrease of course is a subject for debate. Will scarcity and new collectors fill the gap? I'm skeptical as the preservation of comics has reached sufficient height to deter this, as well the back issue market has been flushed out in almost every genre and niche, there are few surprises left.

 

The are no certainties in long term financial projections, however the demographic certaintly dictates that change will occur, in what form good question.

 

I think a growing fan base in Europe and elsewhere may well make up for any declining American fan base. That's my macro view.

 

 

Here are my thoughts on why comic collecting will not die.

 

 

A) Comic books are NOT a fad that is going to fade away with this generation.

 

I believe comic book characters are always going to continue to be a part of popular culture. They are deeply ingrained in American culture (have been since their origin during the Depression). They are as American as apple pie. Saying that they are just fads that will mysteriously become unpopular and die out is tantimount to saying that Rock'n'Roll and fast food are fads that will die out. I don't see that happening. Adults pass on their passions and interests to their kids (good and bad) whether they mean to or not. What we grow up with is what we know and love and have nostalgia for as adults.

 

 

B) I believe that there will always be a certain (fairly stable) percentage of the population that are collectors.

 

For many, it is inherited. For some, it is not. I am a 3rd generation collector. My father collected MANY different things including coins, which is what peaked my interest when I was younger. I didn't really collect anything until I was 30 years old. I finally had some discretionary income and started surfing eBay. I got into coin collecting and assembled a nice little collection. But I grew bored with the hobby because I couldn't afford the true rarities that I wanted to collect (e.g. it would take a long time for me to save enough money to afford something like a Dahlonega gold piece in nice condition). So I stopped collecting. Then in 2001, there was alot of buzz going around about comic book collecting and the newly-formed grading company. So I started surfing eBay and exploring this new collecting territory. I was blown away. I did some research and read about the hobby. Got interested in the Bronze Age and started buying some raw BA keys. Now, I'm mostly into reading with the occasional purchase of BA keys.

 

The point is that there will always be a percentage of the population that are collectors (especially in America). And as kids who loved watching comic book superheroes grow up, some of them will discover the collectible back issue market and get involved in the hobby in some way. The number of people involved in the hobby may fluctuate, but there will remain a sizeable population of devoted fans.

 

 

C) Concerning the health of the new comic market. It will survive.

 

There are too many adults with discretionary funds who spend money every month for it to die out. Are they things that could be done to make it healthier? Yes. But adult readers/collectors will never let comics fade away. There are too many fans who love reading them. And as long as there is a market, someone will create comics to sell to that market.

 

Those are my thoughts.

 

While I agree with a lot of what you said, I still try to not think about macro economics in terms of absolutes. There are gradients at play and I believe that while its true new readers and collectors replace old - the level of replenishment is likely going to decrease as the population base decreases and new entries into the marketplace from whatever venue will not entirely fill the gap. Therefore the new equlibruim that is achieved will be a scaled down version of the existing market with fluctuations dependent on specialized mitigating factors across the board. [#@$%!!!] I hate sounding like an economist.

 

Comics still rule though