Comiclink postings!?

[Kramerica]

Hmmm...in assimiliating your various scenarios, I think I agree with some of what you say, mostly that I don't think the bronze market will bottom out in the next five years. However, I'm not sure there's the room for growth in 9.6+ 1970-1974 non-key, mainstream books you seem to indicate there is.

 

For example, several non-key 9.8 Spideys in the 103-120 range have sold recently in the $1k range, do you really think these same books will be selling for two thousand dollars in five years? I'm more inclined to believe prices will begin to (continue to?) stabilize. CGC has been around forr 5 years, and in that time there has been some separating of the wheat from the chaffe, resulting in the crazy prices for any ole 9.6/9.8 from a few years ago coming back to earth. 9.6+ Bronze keys from the 1970-1974 period are likely to show steady increases (not the huge jumps of the last 5 years though!), but I don't see the rest of the BA books moving much, if any.

 

One thing I am curious to see is what happens to the CGC populations (and prices) of key BA Marvels vs. DC's. DC's are so much scarcer and I suspect the growth rate in the population of high grade Marvels will far outpace that of their DC counterparts...

 

Well, time will tell if I'm being overly optimistic but when I thought about it it didn't seem so far fetched that in 5 years we'd see prices double on non key mainstream Bronze Marvels circa 1970-1974. I just arbitrarily pulled out 4 core Marvels and their GPA results just to use as an example.

 

ASM 106 9.6 382.57

X-Men 86 9.6 275.00

Avengers 122 9.6 70.00

FF 120 9.6 100.25

 

Obviously a lot can happen in 5 years as with any market but looking at it year by year it seems realistic. A 20% increase in the next year for each of these titles for the same grade would yield:

 

ASM 106 459.08

X-Men 86 330.00

Avengers 122 84.00

FF 120 120.00

 

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see these sales one year from now. And then the same happen one year after that. In the next five years I don't think we'll see nearly the amount of submissions for each of these books as we saw in the past 5 years. The availablilty of these books in 9.4 or better might be scarcer than what we've seen. We'll see less of these arrive in the census because we'll see less submissions because: A) 3 years ago the turnaround time was 30 days. Now its 4 months. B) Most hardcore collectors/dealers have submitted most of their ultra high grade C) A very, very large number of the submissions in the first 5 years were from those who thought their VF's were NM's, got burned, lost money and learned their lesson. I could be totally off base but I think with fewer submissions we'll see fewer 9.4 and better books available and a steady 20% increase per year. Also, so many of these non key books are so affordable right now that they seem due for big bumps. This pertains only to 1970-1974 Marvels. Everything post 1974 is in a completely different world as far as I'm concerned. I just look at myself and see that I'm sitting on over 40 9.4 candidates from 1968-1974 that I'm not sending in because it just takes too long and at 27.00 per book would burn me if any graded 9.2 or below. There's a lot of people out there that are thinking the same thing. Now that the initial "rush" in the first 5 years is over and the books are safely in private collections I think we'll see the offerings dry up. Maybe my logic is flawed but it seems like it make sense.

[awe4one]

With my primary motivation being collecting, as I rarely sell - I still think that BA will burst, or shall I say level off and certain hot potatoes will be left in the cold. If these ppl purchased for then they are still ok as they appreciate the product. However if they purchased based on profit potential, I can see limited or very small returns developing.

 

We have very similar collecting goals...

 

As you said...the reason you collect is the key. Collect for love of the medium, within reason, and don't overextend yourself, you'll be golden if there a crash.

 

Collect for profit and you might as well get the gun ready...

 

Jim

[jbud73]

Just keep buying them in HG raw and let the other stuff sort it out in the wash. Unfortunately by the time a book gets on ComicLink there is a lot of value added tax to it - you are going to pay at or more than fair market. I have bought a few books off there, but only after exhausting almost all other avenues, isn't that what collecting is all about, best book lowest price.

[drbanner]

Just keep buying them in HG raw and let the other stuff sort it out in the wash. Unfortunately by the time a book gets on ComicLink there is a lot of value added tax to it - you are going to pay at or more than fair market. I have bought a few books off there, but only after exhausting almost all other avenues, isn't that what collecting is all about, best book lowest price.

 

For what Sterling's looking for, they're not readily available in HG raw - I know because I've been looking for them for a while now...

[sterlingcomics]

For what Sterling's looking for, they're not readily available in HG raw - I know because I've been looking for them for a while now...

 

Exactly

If they are readily available, I've been looking down the wrong venues!!! I will admit that after three years I've determined which issues are more readily available than others. We'll see when the baby boomers start selling their stuff as they retire...

 

The "Be patient" argument lasts only for so long...I do want to finish my collection before I die. You can buy reader copies of these books at will, though.

[delekkerste]

I read you statement, but not sure how it relates to what Vincent said, or my least fav quote in the OS Advisors report EVER "The invest in Bronze for your kids college education analogy" Not sure who the advisor was but maybe I could hold him while Gene smacks him around until he concedes to a retraction in the next OS guide.

 

I'm consigning the rest of my HG Bronze that I had been planning on selling to Pedigree this weekend (Doug has done a great job selling my books since last fall). The housing bubble and the continued kindness of foreign central banks are the only things keeping the average overleveraged, overconsuming, underinvested, overworked, undersexed American afloat right now, and it seems as though we may finally be at an inflection point for both trends. IMO, there may never be a more opportune time in our lives to get liquid and monetize our assets than right now. Maybe the seller(s) on Comiclink realize that too (or maybe they just want to convert one overvalued asset into another).

 

But hey, if anyone disagrees with me, please go buy my books on PedigreeComics.com. We'll see in 5 years whether that was a good move or not. And, yes, if I ever see that Overstreet advisor in person, I'd be only too happy to smack him upside the head with a heavy object.

[PedigreeMan]

I read you statement, but not sure how it relates to what Vincent said, or my least fav quote in the OS Advisors report EVER "The invest in Bronze for your kids college education analogy" Not sure who the advisor was but maybe I could hold him while Gene smacks him around until he concedes to a retraction in the next OS guide.

 

I'm consigning the rest of my HG Bronze that I had been planning on selling to Pedigree this weekend (Doug has done a great job selling my books since last fall). The housing bubble and the continued kindness of foreign central banks are the only things keeping the average overleveraged, overconsuming, underinvested, overworked, undersexed American afloat right now, and it seems as though we may finally be at an inflection point for both trends.

 

I still say you're just crabby because you can't get reservations to Dorsia, Bateman.

[awe4one]

But hey, if anyone disagrees with me, please go buy my books on PedigreeComics.com. We'll see in 5 years whether that was a good move or not.

 

You definitely have a unique way of hyping your comics...

 

Jim

[sterlingcomics]

Is your avatar about to say a wirty dord?

[PedigreeMan]

Is your avatar about to say a wirty dord?

[namisgr]

Is your avatar about to say a wirty dord?

 

Yes: Steroids.

[namisgr]

The housing bubble and the continued kindness of foreign central banks are the only things keeping the average ... undersexed American afloat right now, and it seems as though we may finally be at an inflection point.

 

Sounds like you have a big weekend planned, Gene. Good luck with hitting that inflection point!

[namisgr]

Although I don't know for sure where Vince is coming from with his assertion about the future of high grade Bronze, I suspect he is looking at Bronze today as Silver was viewed in the 1970s and 80s. A fundamental difference, however, is that the collectors' mentality was well ensconsed by the 70s, and so there is just tons more high grade Bronze available than for the average Silver age books. Another is that the Bronze age simply did not lead to the creation of as many iconic characters with long staying power the way the Silver age did. Ergo, higher supply and lower demand. JMHO, of course.

[Excelsior!-migration]

I will take the minority side on this issue. I am of the mind that early HG bronze, are not that plentiful.

 

1. Then as now most comics didn't come from the printers in 9.4+ condition.

2. I am guessing the majority of comics were sold in drug stores, super markets, mini-marts etc... instead of comic shops like today and very few comics would make it off the racks in 9.4+ condition after being manhandled by kids paging through them.

3. Spin racks of doom. I doubt too many 9.4+ were pulled from a spin rack.

4. Comics were primarily bought to be read back in the day and unlike today the collector mentallity to bag in board comics wasn't the norm, but the exception.

5. Any that did survive and managed to make it to a comic shop back issue inventory have been subjected to decades of people pulling out and placing them back into comic boxes. A lot of wear and tear.

6. Finally, those poor BA comics that got sent to the dime or quarter bins without any protection probably didn't survive in 9.4+ condition.

 

Therefore, the percentage of surviving HG BA comics have to be very small even though the print runs were much larger back in the day.

[tth2]

I read you statement, but not sure how it relates to what Vincent said, or my least fav quote in the OS Advisors report EVER "The invest in Bronze for your kids college education analogy" Not sure who the advisor was but maybe I could hold him while Gene smacks him around until he concedes to a retraction in the next OS guide.

 

I'm consigning the rest of my HG Bronze that I had been planning on selling to Pedigree this weekend (Doug has done a great job selling my books since last fall). The housing bubble and the continued kindness of foreign central banks are the only things keeping the average overleveraged, overconsuming, underinvested, overworked, undersexed American afloat right now, and it seems as though we may finally be at an inflection point for both trends.

 

I still say you're just crabby because you can't get reservations to Dorsia, Bateman.

 

Gene is our board's eternal ray of sunshine!