How can you estimate modern variant print runs?

[GLCBrad]

Wont make it to 10 pages before lockdown

 

There was a lot of vitriol in the other one. No reason if that one avoided the lock that this one wouldn't

[Lonzilla]

For a title that isn't a top 10 seller, most shops won't be ordering 50 copies to get the incentive variant. For example: Fantastic Four #3 (Jan 2013), distro numbers were 50,555 so there's most likely less than 1,000 copies of the 1:50 Dell'Otto variant cover.

It's been argued that it's not cost effective for Marvel to print only 500 or so copies of a book, and since the interiors are the same, I'm sure they just run off the covers separately so they could do even 100or 200 copies of a variant and not bat an eye.

 

The only companies that are forthcoming with their print runs when it comes to variants are indies such as Image and Black Mask

 

Unfortunately even those numbers are highly unlikely to be exactly accurate when you factor in replacement/creator copies.

If the WCNGH creators say that a variant has only 100 copies, I tend to believe them, especially if they're numbered.

It's no different than a band releasing a limited edition colored vinyl record of 100 or 200 copies. They put the number pressed out there. I've been on that end with my old band and the yellow vinyl copies that our label said were made is the exact number (100)

 

Numbered copies does not mean extras were not made above the stated print run for the creators or as replacement copies. I'm not following the comparison to vinyl. I don't follow the vinyl market so am not sure a local band can charge $100 for a vinyl the way the WCNGH team did with the NYCC variant sets knowing they would be flipped for even more on eBay.

Some punk,hardcore and metal bands will do a limited 7" record pressing that's only available on their tour, usually sells out within the first few dates and will go for crazy money on discogs. But no, they're not whores like Black Mask charging $100 for them

[jsilverjanet]

RAM does. and so does Chuck. They told me so.

 

Who's RAM?

[Awax]

RAM does. and so does Chuck. They told me so.

 

Who's RAM?

 

[UltraMaximus]

Autocorrect Typo FTW.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

RAM does. and so does Chuck. They told me so.

 

Who's RAM?

 

And no, you can't estimate at all, just like you can't estimate what it's in the Coke recipe.

[RockMyAmadeus]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

That is not accurate. It's not only not 100% reliable, it's not reliable at all.

 

It would like estimating how many stars you can see in the sky, based on how close the moon is to the earth.

 

The two numbers aren't related in any meaningful way.

 

They aren't even educated guesses.

 

Sorry folks. You're out of luck on this one.

 

You have to figure that every incentive variant has overages printed for damages, comps, etc. (increasing the number), but you also have to figure that not every store orders enough the qualify for the rarer variants (decreasing the number).

 

You also have to figure that this information is not released to the public, so trying to estimate off an estimate is probably a waste of time.

 

I know you folks want the answer...I do, too...but the answer doesn't lie with Comichron/Diamond's numbers.

[BarryAllen]

There are two certainties when it comes to modern variant print runs:

 

1) those who know how to estimate modern variant print runs

2) those who know you don't know how to estimate modern variant print runs

 

:shrug:

[RockMyAmadeus]

[ or Rma makes a post with 1000+ words,

 

That's my favorite reason.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

There is no best way. You have no idea how far off that number is. It could be off by 10 copies or 1000 copies. Since people are primarily using this estimation to calculate the rarity of a sought after incentive cover, coming up with an estimation with no indication to its degree of accuracy means nothing and is potentially monetarily damaging.

Of course there's a best way. That doesn't necessarily mean there isn't a high margin for error in that way. Picking a number from one to a million is one way of guessing the print run, but certainly it's not as good as referencing the Diamond orders and the ratio. It's given that we don't know a lot of the variables. But if we want to estimate a value that we're looking to pay for a book, or what we think we should get when selling a book, a very rough estimate is better than no estimate at all, I think.

 

No.

[dupont2005]

Has there ever been a situation where something was supposed to be limited to x amount of copies, but there's more than that on the census?

[RockMyAmadeus]

For a title that isn't a top 10 seller, most shops won't be ordering 50 copies to get the incentive variant. For example: Fantastic Four #3 (Jan 2013), distro numbers were 50,555 so there's most likely less than 1,000 copies of the 1:50 Dell'Otto variant cover.

It's been argued that it's not cost effective for Marvel to print only 500 or so copies of a book, and since the interiors are the same, I'm sure they just run off the covers separately so they could do even 100or 200 copies of a variant and not bat an eye.

 

The only companies that are forthcoming with their print runs when it comes to variants are indies such as Image and Black Mask

 

Unfortunately even those numbers are highly unlikely to be exactly accurate when you factor in replacement/creator copies.

If the WCNGH creators say that a variant has only 100 copies, I tend to believe them, especially if they're numbered.

It's no different than a band releasing a limited edition colored vinyl record of 100 or 200 copies. They put the number pressed out there. I've been on that end with my old band and the yellow vinyl copies that our label said were made is the exact number (100)

 

Very, very few numbers in comics are exact. For example...I default to Maxx ashcans, because they're such an easily understandable example...but did you know that there weren't 50 copies of the Black #1 Ashcan made?

 

There were more than that. Maybe 55, maybe 60. Yet, the "official number" is 50.

 

I collect Vampirella Royal Blues, limited to 100. I'm fairly certain I have now seen more than 100 copies of the Monthly #1 (1997) floating around. I own 25 or so myself.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Has there ever been a situation where something was supposed to be limited to x amount of copies, but there's more than that on the census?

 

The potential for resubmissions throw that theory out the window.

[jreezy]

Has there ever been a situation where something was supposed to be limited to x amount of copies, but there's more than that on the census?

 

The potential for resubmissions throw that theory out the window.

 

Yeah. I don't understand why people can't just return their labels when they are resubmitting? Throws the census off.

[LarrysComics]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

That is not accurate. It's not only not 100% reliable, it's not reliable at all.

 

It would like estimating how many stars you can see in the sky, based on how close the moon is to the earth.

 

The two numbers aren't related in any meaningful way.

 

.

 

They aren't even educated guesses.

 

Sorry folks. You're out of luck on this one.

 

You have to figure that every incentive variant has overages printed for damages, comps, etc. (increasing the number), but you also have to figure that not every store orders enough the qualify for the rarer variants (decreasing the number).

 

You also have to figure that this information is not released to the public, so trying to estimate off an estimate is probably a waste of time.

 

I know you folks want the answer...I do, too...but the answer doesn't lie with Comichron/Diamond's numbers.

 

*shrug*

 

Depends on the publisher, honestly.

Sometimes it's within 10% of the 'to press' number.

Dead on. Sometimes wildly off.

 

I've been a case buyer of comics since 1988.

Sometimes, I just "know" 100% what the print run is.

I've literally read thousands of case labels. ( some with printer labels attached )

Not Diamond labels. Printer labels.

 

I found a case of Valiant mail away incentives at Heroes World Warehouse sale that had print documents taped to it, I bought cases of Image #0 at a Diamond warehouse open house w printer labels attached, I've bought from Marvel sales for decades. I've seen case labels from literally every major publisher.

 

I've bought exclusive comics printed for me, then found print labels that did not match the qty. I've called publishers & with questions & been given answers.

For years.

 

I'm "generally aware" of how the system works & would say that I'm quite capable of an educated guess from time to time.

 

Sorry.

[RockMyAmadeus]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

That is not accurate. It's not only not 100% reliable, it's not reliable at all.

 

It would like estimating how many stars you can see in the sky, based on how close the moon is to the earth.

 

The two numbers aren't related in any meaningful way.

 

.

 

They aren't even educated guesses.

 

Sorry folks. You're out of luck on this one.

 

You have to figure that every incentive variant has overages printed for damages, comps, etc. (increasing the number), but you also have to figure that not every store orders enough the qualify for the rarer variants (decreasing the number).

 

You also have to figure that this information is not released to the public, so trying to estimate off an estimate is probably a waste of time.

 

I know you folks want the answer...I do, too...but the answer doesn't lie with Comichron/Diamond's numbers.

 

*shrug*

 

Depends on the publisher, honestly.

Sometimes it's within 10% of the 'to press' number.

Dead on. Sometimes wildly off.

 

I've been a case buyer of comics since 1988.

Sometimes, I just "know" 100% what the print run is.

I've literally read thousands of case labels. ( some with printer labels attached )

Not Diamond labels. Printer labels.

 

I found a case of Valiant mail away incentives at Heroes World Warehouse sale that had print documents taped to it, I bought cases of Image #0 at a Diamond warehouse open house w printer labels attached, I've bought from Marvel sales for decades. I've seen case labels from literally every major publisher.

 

I've bought exclusive comics printed for me, then found print labels that did not match the qty. I've called publishers & with questions & been given answers.

For years.

 

I'm "generally aware" of how the system works & would say that I'm quite capable of an educated guess from time to time.

 

Sorry.

 

I didn't say you couldn't make educated guesses at all, Larry. I said you couldn't make educated guesses based on the reported Diamond numbers for the regular issue..

 

The only two Valiant mail-away incentives were Magnus #0 and Harby #0. I would be interested in what information you have about those.

 

[LarrysComics]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

That is not accurate. It's not only not 100% reliable, it's not reliable at all.

 

It would like estimating how many stars you can see in the sky, based on how close the moon is to the earth.

 

The two numbers aren't related in any meaningful way.

 

.

 

They aren't even educated guesses.

 

Sorry folks. You're out of luck on this one.

 

You have to figure that every incentive variant has overages printed for damages, comps, etc. (increasing the number), but you also have to figure that not every store orders enough the qualify for the rarer variants (decreasing the number).

 

You also have to figure that this information is not released to the public, so trying to estimate off an estimate is probably a waste of time.

 

I know you folks want the answer...I do, too...but the answer doesn't lie with Comichron/Diamond's numbers.

 

*shrug*

 

Depends on the publisher, honestly.

Sometimes it's within 10% of the 'to press' number.

Dead on. Sometimes wildly off.

 

I've been a case buyer of comics since 1988.

Sometimes, I just "know" 100% what the print run is.

I've literally read thousands of case labels. ( some with printer labels attached )

Not Diamond labels. Printer labels.

 

I found a case of Valiant mail away incentives at Heroes World Warehouse sale that had print documents taped to it, I bought cases of Image #0 at a Diamond warehouse open house w printer labels attached, I've bought from Marvel sales for decades. I've seen case labels from literally every major publisher.

 

I've bought exclusive comics printed for me, then found print labels that did not match the qty. I've called publishers & with questions & been given answers.

For years.

 

I'm "generally aware" of how the system works & would say that I'm quite capable of an educated guess from time to time.

 

Sorry.

 

I didn't say you couldn't make educated guesses at all, Larry. I said you couldn't make educated guesses based on the reported Diamond numbers for the regular issue..

 

The only two Valiant mail-away incentives were Magnus #0 and Harby #0. I would be interested in what information you have about those.

 

Hilarious.

[RockMyAmadeus]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

That is not accurate. It's not only not 100% reliable, it's not reliable at all.

 

It would like estimating how many stars you can see in the sky, based on how close the moon is to the earth.

 

The two numbers aren't related in any meaningful way.

 

.

 

They aren't even educated guesses.

 

Sorry folks. You're out of luck on this one.

 

You have to figure that every incentive variant has overages printed for damages, comps, etc. (increasing the number), but you also have to figure that not every store orders enough the qualify for the rarer variants (decreasing the number).

 

You also have to figure that this information is not released to the public, so trying to estimate off an estimate is probably a waste of time.

 

I know you folks want the answer...I do, too...but the answer doesn't lie with Comichron/Diamond's numbers.

 

*shrug*

 

Depends on the publisher, honestly.

Sometimes it's within 10% of the 'to press' number.

Dead on. Sometimes wildly off.

 

I've been a case buyer of comics since 1988.

Sometimes, I just "know" 100% what the print run is.

I've literally read thousands of case labels. ( some with printer labels attached )

Not Diamond labels. Printer labels.

 

I found a case of Valiant mail away incentives at Heroes World Warehouse sale that had print documents taped to it, I bought cases of Image #0 at a Diamond warehouse open house w printer labels attached, I've bought from Marvel sales for decades. I've seen case labels from literally every major publisher.

 

I've bought exclusive comics printed for me, then found print labels that did not match the qty. I've called publishers & with questions & been given answers.

For years.

 

I'm "generally aware" of how the system works & would say that I'm quite capable of an educated guess from time to time.

 

Sorry.

 

I didn't say you couldn't make educated guesses at all, Larry. I said you couldn't make educated guesses based on the reported Diamond numbers for the regular issue..

 

The only two Valiant mail-away incentives were Magnus #0 and Harby #0. I would be interested in what information you have about those.

 

Hilarious.

 

Yes, yes, now what information do you have about the Magnus #0 and/or Harby #0?

 

Shall I bust out my cases to see what information we can glean...?

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

There is no best way. You have no idea how far off that number is. It could be off by 10 copies or 1000 copies. Since people are primarily using this estimation to calculate the rarity of a sought after incentive cover, coming up with an estimation with no indication to its degree of accuracy means nothing and is potentially monetarily damaging.

Of course there's a best way. That doesn't necessarily mean there isn't a high margin for error in that way. Picking a number from one to a million is one way of guessing the print run, but certainly it's not as good as referencing the Diamond orders and the ratio. It's given that we don't know a lot of the variables. But if we want to estimate a value that we're looking to pay for a book, or what we think we should get when selling a book, a very rough estimate is better than no estimate at all, I think.

 

No.

Yes.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.