How can you estimate modern variant print runs?

[bababooey]

RMA vs GAMP

 

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

And that's my entire point.

[paul747]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

And that's my entire point.

 

 

Why use the best modern ever as an example ? Pick another book. A little birdie said there where only 5 cases of 200 printed..

.

So many of the spec sites and recalled comics all sell comics they all benefit from there own hype. No one really knows the true print runs.

 

The thing that I really would like to understand is what goes overseas? Where is that info?

[Jaydogrules]

Despite his relentless axe grinding and occasionally vacuous debate style there is a scintilla of accuracy to what RMA is saying.

 

Does comichron report print numbers?

 

No, comichron indeed reports distribution figures only., ie orders received from North American retailers by the FOC ("Final Order Cut-off'), and pre orders.

 

How do we know this?

 

It says it right there on the site.

 

Can we divine print numbers from comichron numbers?

 

Yes, of course. A publisher will not print 100,000 copies of a book that only received orders of 50,000.

 

Boardies knowledgeable of the printing industry have stated that publishers will typically order up to 15% over the order numbers from the printer to account for damage returns and re-orders.

 

Comichron numbers do not include international sales. Knowledgeable international boardies as well as other respected websites have put international numbers anywhere from 0-15% over the comichron numbers. However, not every book is printed identically to the North American version of the book for international release. In fact, many if not most aren't. And the international market does not necessarily even get the opportunity to order retailer incentive variants. So since the foreign market is truly its own animal, the discussion should be limited to the North American market anyway.

 

Can we use comichron numbers to approximate print runs for incentive based variants?

 

Obviously.

 

As stated, the comichron number represent the distribution numbers not the print numbers. Tack another 15% worst case figure on top of that to get a reasonable idea of the book's print run. If we are talking about a book with a 50,000 comichron number having a 1:100 variant being offered, figure a print run of about 57,500. But since RI variants are based on the distribution numbers of the regular cover, and not print numbers (as RMA likes to constantly point out), figure a max distribution of that variant would be 500.

 

But even this 500 figure would not be exactly accurate, as not every store will have ordered 100 copies of the regular cover, and not every store will have necessarily ordered the variant, even if they qualified for it, and the comichron numbers include all of the numbers for the issue, including the variants as well as the regular cover. But since a publisher will not print less than a case pack, and if the max case pack is 250 copies, and if the publisher prints up to an "extra" 15% to account for damages, a max print run estimate of 500 would probably still be reasonable for this particular book in our example.

 

Why do RI variants occasionally end up in a five below pack or burned off in a" variant sale"?

 

Sometimes there are no or few damage returns, or sometimes there is a variant that attracts scant interest and few orders, or sometimes a publisher over estimates demand for a book that it "thought" would catch on and they over print it.

 

However these are the exceptions and not the rule, and that is why the variants normally offered discounted for such sales are anything but the cream of the crop. They are simply the leftover dreck that no one wanted the first time around, offered at a deep discount to move the excess printing overages.

 

The rampant fear-mongering applied by a few on these boards in a seeming attempt to discredit the retailer incentive program really is quite the sham. It usually ranges from implying that publishers routinely excessively print books that no one ordered and seemingly for the sole purpose of storing in warehouses to outright accusing publishers of lying. The occasional excess inventory of (usually crappy) RI variants that we see offered outside of the program here and there are easily explained and do not suggest either fraud by the publishers or massive amounts of years old variants sitting in an office waiting to be dumped onto ebay all at once.

 

One would expect that boardies who are constantly preaching "reason" would not be advocating such nonsense, either directly or indirectly.

 

-J.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

And that's my entire point.

 

 

Why use the best modern ever as an example ? Pick another book. A little birdie said there where only 5 cases of 200 printed..

.

So many of the spec sites and recalled comics all sell comics they all benefit from there own hype. No one really knows the true print runs.

I find this funny because I'm friends with the person at Marvel who sets the print runs, and when I grabbed a copy of Captain Marvel #17 2nd print at Midtown for $4.50 and then posted about it on Facebook, speculating on the small print run (when it had already started to explode), her response to me was that she was tempted to tell me what it was (but I would never ask her to give out that confidential information, natch).

[BarryAllen]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

And that's my entire point.

 

 

Why use the best modern ever as an example ? Pick another book. A little birdie said there where only 5 cases of 200 printed..

.

So many of the spec sites and recalled comics all sell comics they all benefit from there own hype. No one really knows the true print runs.

I find this funny because I'm friends with the person at Marvel who sets the print runs, and when I grabbed a copy of Captain Marvel #17 2nd print at Midtown for $4.50 and then posted about it on Facebook, speculating on the small print run (when it had already started to explode), her response to me was that she was tempted to tell me what it was (but I would never ask her to give out that confidential information, natch).

 

Why not?

 

I don't think comic sales are regulated like the stock market. It's not like you can go to jail for "insider comic trading...."

 

:shrug:

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

And that's my entire point.

 

 

Why use the best modern ever as an example ? Pick another book. A little birdie said there where only 5 cases of 200 printed..

.

So many of the spec sites and recalled comics all sell comics they all benefit from there own hype. No one really knows the true print runs.

I find this funny because I'm friends with the person at Marvel who sets the print runs, and when I grabbed a copy of Captain Marvel #17 2nd print at Midtown for $4.50 and then posted about it on Facebook, speculating on the small print run (when it had already started to explode), her response to me was that she was tempted to tell me what it was (but I would never ask her to give out that confidential information, natch).

 

Why not?

 

I don't think comic sales are regulated like the stock market. It's not like you can go to jail for "insider comic trading...."

 

:shrug:

No, but people can lose their jobs for releasing info that a company would rather keep private.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Despite his relentless axe grinding and occasionally vacuous debate style there is a scintilla of accuracy to what RMA is saying.

 

You need to learn how to post on message boards without becoming offended when people challenge what you post you, and as a result, taking potshots at them in response. Until you learn to do that, meaningful dialogue with you isn't possible.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

And that's my entire point.

 

 

Why use the best modern ever as an example ? Pick another book. A little birdie said there where only 5 cases of 200 printed..

.

So many of the spec sites and recalled comics all sell comics they all benefit from there own hype. No one really knows the true print runs.

I find this funny because I'm friends with the person at Marvel who sets the print runs, and when I grabbed a copy of Captain Marvel #17 2nd print at Midtown for $4.50 and then posted about it on Facebook, speculating on the small print run (when it had already started to explode), her response to me was that she was tempted to tell me what it was (but I would never ask her to give out that confidential information, natch).

 

Does this friend have a name and a job title?

[divad]

The rampant fear-mongering applied by a few on these boards in a seeming attempt to discredit the retailer incentive program really is quite the sham. -J.

 

You're whacko!

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

And that's my entire point.

 

 

Why use the best modern ever as an example ? Pick another book. A little birdie said there where only 5 cases of 200 printed..

.

So many of the spec sites and recalled comics all sell comics they all benefit from there own hype. No one really knows the true print runs.

I find this funny because I'm friends with the person at Marvel who sets the print runs, and when I grabbed a copy of Captain Marvel #17 2nd print at Midtown for $4.50 and then posted about it on Facebook, speculating on the small print run (when it had already started to explode), her response to me was that she was tempted to tell me what it was (but I would never ask her to give out that confidential information, natch).

 

Does this friend have a name and a job title?

Yes

[LarrysComics]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

And that's my entire point.

 

 

Why use the best modern ever as an example ? Pick another book. A little birdie said there where only 5 cases of 200 printed..

.

So many of the spec sites and recalled comics all sell comics they all benefit from there own hype. No one really knows the true print runs.

I find this funny because I'm friends with the person at Marvel who sets the print runs, and when I grabbed a copy of Captain Marvel #17 2nd print at Midtown for $4.50 and then posted about it on Facebook, speculating on the small print run (when it had already started to explode), her response to me was that she was tempted to tell me what it was (but I would never ask her to give out that confidential information, natch).

 

Does this friend have a name and a job title?

Yes

 

Yes.

"Her" name is David Gabriel.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

And that's my entire point.

 

 

Why use the best modern ever as an example ? Pick another book. A little birdie said there where only 5 cases of 200 printed..

.

So many of the spec sites and recalled comics all sell comics they all benefit from there own hype. No one really knows the true print runs.

I find this funny because I'm friends with the person at Marvel who sets the print runs, and when I grabbed a copy of Captain Marvel #17 2nd print at Midtown for $4.50 and then posted about it on Facebook, speculating on the small print run (when it had already started to explode), her response to me was that she was tempted to tell me what it was (but I would never ask her to give out that confidential information, natch).

 

Does this friend have a name and a job title?

Yes

 

Yes.

"Her" name is David Gabriel.

 

That's it.