High Grade Marvel and the Census

[sfilosa]

I did a little analysis using the census.

 

Here is a list of SA Marvel Super-Hero books that have only THREE or LESS copies graded 9.4 or higher. I used the number three, because as many HG Marvel collectors know, the top two Marvel SA collectors (Tom and Doug) have many of the top copies. Therefore, if there are only three, more then likely, there is at best, only one copy available.

 

ASM = NONE

Avengers = #9

Dardeveil = #7

FF = #2,3,5,6,7,12,13

Hulk = #1,3

JIM = #84,85,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,108,109

Strange Tales = #101,103,104,105,107,108,111,119

TOS = #41,55,60,67,78

TTA = #27,35,36,37,40,43,46,66,77,78

X-Men = NONE

 

Quick Analysis:

1) No wonder why a high grade run of JIM is so impressive. 11 issues have three or less 9.4/+ copies.

 

2) Also shows why ASM and X-Men are the easiest titles to complete in HG(assuming you have a truckload of cash)

 

3) There are only five issues that have a published date on or after Jan 1965. They are TOS #67 & #78 and TTA #66,77 & 78

 

4) I have three of these issues in 9.4 or better.

[Aman619]

big deal!

 

 

(showoff)

 

[tth2]

I'm most surprised by JIM 108 & 109, TOS 55,60,67,78 and TTA 66,77,78. What's the story with these books, genuinely rare in HG, or just an artificial census shortage due to lack of submissions for some reason? I know even the Doug-ster was looking for a 9.4 TOS 60 for a while. Do prices for 9.4 or higher copies of these issues reflect their scarcity by commanding a higher price compared to the surrounding issues?

[ComicBookGuy]

I'm most surprised by JIM 108 & 109, TOS 55,60,67,78 and TTA 66,77,78. What's the story with these books, genuinely rare in HG, or just an artificial census shortage due to lack of submissions for some reason? I know even the Doug-ster was looking for a 9.4 TOS 60 for a while. Do prices for 9.4 or higher copies of these issues reflect their scarcity by commanding a higher price compared to the surrounding issues?

 

Tales to Astonish 77 was the last one I needed to complete my run of this title. I ended up settling for a nice cgc 8.5, which is low for me. Complicating the structural aspects of the book is something about its brown cover ink that tans almost all the issues' interior covers. ( I had a similar problem with FF 22 and 27). A truly tough book from a run that many take for granted.

Joe

[sfilosa]

Tales to Astonish 77 was the last one I needed to complete my run of this title. I ended up settling for a nice cgc 8.5, which is low for me. Complicating the structural aspects of the book is something about its brown cover ink that tans almost all the issues' interior covers. ( I had a similar problem with FF 22 and 27). A truly tough book from a run that many take for granted.

Joe

 

You obviously have a very nice run. I just picked up the CGC 9.2 copy on Heritage for the TTA #77. The Pacific Coast copy is also only a CGC 9.2.

 

TTA #77 and #78 only have 3 copies 9.4 of higher where as #76 has 8 and #79 has 12, which makes it quite clear that #77 and #78 are much tougher to find. While I can't confirm this, because I have lots of pedigree issues of TTA's, my guess is that there are pedigree copies of these issues from, White Mountain, Pacific Coast, Northland, Boston and Western Penn, at a minimum. Obviously, even these aren't getting all 9.4's.

 

As to if any of these Silver Age tough issues command a higher price, I know they did with Doug. But they don't seem to get any addition DEMAND, therefore the actual premium is small. By that I mean, only someone who wants to complete the run (or part of the run) in 9.4 or better, is going to pay the premium. Therefore, if the book was listed on a consignment site with a fairly high price, I could see these books commanding that price. On the other hand, if they are just auctioned off, with no extra reserve premium attached, they could sell for about the same as other issues.

 

I can say that I bought the TOS #67 CGC 9.4 for a higher multiple then other issues, simply because it's very hard in CGC 9.4 or better.

[Aman619]

I think we have to all still be careful drawing conclusion from the census lik ethese for later SA books. Remember when we all pointed to th enumbers for Spidey 11 as "proof of what we "always knew" that it was much harder than other early Spideys? Well, the latest numbers show lots more books have shown up and 11 looks only slightly less common than the rest.

 

Could be the same ending for any statistical anomaly anyone can point to today.

[tth2]

I think we have to all still be careful drawing conclusion from the census lik ethese for later SA books. Remember when we all pointed to th enumbers for Spidey 11 as "proof of what we "always knew" that it was much harder than other early Spideys? Well, the latest numbers show lots more books have shown up and 11 looks only slightly less common than the rest.

 

Could be the same ending for any statistical anomaly anyone can point to today.

I agree. Until we see clearly higher prices breaking out for some of these later TOSs and TTAs, it will be hard to determine whether they're truly harder to find in HG or just a statistical anomaly. DD #7 has clearly broken out, and prices for CGC 9.4 copies in the $5K range seemingly have failed to dislodge any more copies, so there appears to be some support that it really is hard to find in HG. If we see these later TOSs and TTAs in CGC 9.4 commanding 8-10X premiums over the 9.2 OS price, and more copies still fail to appear, then I think it will be safer to conclude that they really are hard to find in HG.

[sfilosa]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I think we have to all still be careful drawing conclusion from the census lik ethese for later SA books. Remember when we all pointed to th enumbers for Spidey 11 as "proof of what we "always knew" that it was much harder than other early Spideys? Well, the latest numbers show lots more books have shown up and 11 looks only slightly less common than the rest.

 

Could be the same ending for any statistical anomaly anyone can point to today.

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

I agree. Until we see clearly higher prices breaking out for some of these later TOSs and TTAs, it will be hard to determine whether they're truly harder to find in HG or just a statistical anomaly. DD #7 has clearly broken out, and prices for CGC 9.4 copies in the $5K range seemingly have failed to dislodge any more copies, so there appears to be some support that it really is hard to find in HG. If we see these later TOSs and TTAs in CGC 9.4 commanding 8-10X premiums over the 9.2 OS price, and more copies still fail to appear, then I think it will be safer to conclude that they really are hard to find in HG.

 

 

Actually AMS #11 is much tougher to find in HG, if you start at CGC 9.0. It does seem that a few 9.4/9.6 have been certified or resubmitted more recently but:

 

ASM #10 = 63 copies in 9.0 or higher

ASM #12 = 45 copies in 9.0 or higher

 

and

ASM #11= 25 copies in 9.0 or higher

 

That a pretty big difference.

 

And only issue #1 has less 9.0 or higher copies then #11 of ALL the Silver-Age Amazing Spider-Man issues. That includes the hard to find #28 which actually has 25 copies just graded 9.0 with 16 higher.

 

[tth2]

Steve, I don't think we're saying the numbers won't always be smaller than the surrounding issues. Aman in particular was just noting that when the financial incentive arose, it seemed like more issues then appeared. Still harder to find than surrounding issues, but not as tough as the current census would initially lead you to believe.

[sfilosa]

Steve, I don't think we're saying the numbers won't always be smaller than the surrounding issues. Aman in particular was just noting that when the financial incentive arose, it seemed like more issues then appeared. Still harder to find than surrounding issues, but not as tough as the current census would initially lead you to believe.

 

 

I agree with that assessment. But there are clearly books that are anomolies, which to me means, lower distribution, coupled with the book having a greater chance to incur defects (usually the colors / ink used). Just like many fifties books are harder to find in HG then GA books, because the paper quality is worse.

 

If nothing else, the very low census number confirm that these issues WERE NOT part of any warehouse finds.

[tth2]

But there are clearly books that are anomolies, which to me means, lower distribution, coupled with the book having a greater chance to incur defects (usually the colors / ink used).

 

Yes, I would agree that DD #7, among the later books, definitely falls into this camp.

 

If nothing else, the very low census number confirm that these issues WERE NOT part of any warehouse finds.

Or bound stack finds.

[burntboy]

I did a little analysis using the census.

 

Here is a list of SA Marvel Super-Hero books that have only THREE or LESS copies graded 9.4 or higher. I used the number three, because as many HG Marvel collectors know, the top two Marvel SA collectors (Tom and Doug) have many of the top copies. Therefore, if there are only three, more then likely, there is at best, only one copy available.

 

ASM = NONE

Avengers = #9

Dardeveil = #7

FF = #2,3,5,6,7,12,13

Hulk = #1,3

JIM = #84,85,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,108,109

Strange Tales = #101,103,104,105,107,108,111,119

TOS = #41,55,60,67,78

TTA = #27,35,36,37,40,43,46,66,77,78

X-Men = NONE

 

Quick Analysis:

1) No wonder why a high grade run of JIM is so impressive. 11 issues have three or less 9.4/+ copies.

 

2) Also shows why ASM and X-Men are the easiest titles to complete in HG(assuming you have a truckload of cash)

 

3) There are only five issues that have a published date on or after Jan 1965. They are TOS #67 & #78 and TTA #66,77 & 78

 

4) I have three of these issues in 9.4 or better.

 

i think Brent read this post before putting those JIM's up for sale on E-bay the other night.

 

the 109 in 9.4 has a BIN of $5600 good luck to him with those beauties

[ComicBookGuy]

If nothing else, the very low census number confirm that these issues WERE NOT part of any warehouse finds.

 

I think this is it, in a nutshell. I can remember going to New York shows in the 1980s and see Koch and Dolgoff with stacks of the Tales titles from the warehouses they bought out. They either had huge stacks of a number or none at all.

In addition to it not being a warehouse find, that TTA #77 has a dark brown cover that shows even the faintest amount of stress. Many collectors like myself who do not buy books with tan inside covers will reject high grade copies that demonstrate such tanning. All this adds up to #77 being a TOUGH book no matter what the census says since there are factors like the interior cover tanning that cgc does not take into account when grading. I personally would not purchase a 9.4 copy if I knew it had interior tanning.

Joe

[sfilosa]

How nice is your TTA run?

 

Are they mostly graded as there is now a Registry set for TTA's.

[ComicBookGuy]

How nice is your TTA run?

 

Are they mostly graded as there is now a Registry set for TTA's.

 

I bought most of them raw years ago. The first ten are all between 6.0 and 9.2. Of the ones I have slabbed, #27 was a 6.0 and #44 came back a 7.5. The others are about the same or better. Later on in the run, my #60 came back an 8.5, and it is typical of the conditions, give or take a bit from #50 to #70. I bought the #77 slabbed at 8.5. The only other one I had slabbed is #85 since I love that cover so much, and it came back a 9.2. So I figure from #70 up is about 9.0 or up. I got all these from #60 up when they were $2 to $6 a pop years ago. Ah, the good old days...

Joe

[Aman619]

you said it, the good old days!!

[sfilosa]

So I figure from #70 up is about 9.0 or up. I got all these from #60 up when they were $2 to $6 a pop years ago. Ah, the good old days...

 

Sounds like you paid less for forty issues, then I paid for one 9.6 books. Nice job, and yes the good old days.

Now if all my good old days books were in the CGC grades as they were sold to me as, I would have done a lot better.

[tth2]

JIM = #109

Someone clearly agrees that this is a scarce book in 9.4, because they just hit the $5600 BIN on Qualitycomix`s 9.4 copy on eBay. Brent must be doing his happy dance right about now. I`m not familiar with the buyer, hth-1977.

 

It will be interesting to see what kinds of prices he gets for the rest of the JIM run he`s got up on eBay right now.

[Aman619]

interesting too because a buyer could have bouht all thos JIMs from Quality site for months now. It may boost Ebay's rep if they suddenly sell for the listed prices that sat un BINNED on Quality until now , huh?

[tth2]

People may have had no idea that these books were on Qualitycomix`s site.

 

I think it must be incredibly difficult for all the new dealer websites to get exposure. And unless they keep offering new product, it must be really difficult for them to get people to keep coming back and checking.