Overproduced....breeding like rabits?

[Prophet78]

Ok, going off the "Undervalued Modern Books" thread. I could be incorrect but didn't the big print houses change the way books are ordered and printed? Are the recent (last 2 years or so) moderns on a smaller print run or are moderns still on a relatively high print run compared to the late 80's & 90's?

 

-Jeremy-

[murph0]

The print runs now are at a fraction of what they were in the 80's/early 90's.

 

Brian

[delekkerste]

The print runs now are at a fraction of what they were in the 80's/early 90's.

 

True...but unfortunately, the number of comic book collectors, readers and speculators are all a fraction of what they were during this time period as well. The number of collectors continues to dwindle over time...unit sales of comics keep falling year after year - the main reason why industry revenues have been up the last few years is because of higher cover prices over time, not volume increases (there was an article in an industry rag recently that cited this).

 

Just something to keep in mind for anyone wanting to "invest" in these "low-print run" books.

 

Gene

[blowout]

Are the recent (last 2 years or so) moderns on a smaller print run or are moderns still on a relatively high print run compared to the late 80's & 90's?

 

Print runs are much lower now than they have ever been for the mainstream books.

This all points to less readers and less collectors. There is no point just focusing on print run numbers when considering the future collectability of a book. Supply verses Demand is the crucial thing to consider. If demand keeps dropping off the way it has over the last ten years then supply will not really be a factor.

[delekkerste]

If demand keeps dropping off the way it has over the last ten years then supply will not really be a factor.

 

There is an awesome article in the new CBG (#1532) by Chuck Rozanski (NOT part of his "Tales of the Database" series) called "Publishing: A look ahead". Basically, he says that printed comic books are DEAD and that electronic distribution is the wave of the future. Here are some choice passages:

 

"I firmly believe that, for the past 15 years, the comics business has been in an accelerating downward spiral to oblivion. What I've observed is the almost complete elimination of new readers coming into the comics world, as the newsstand distribution of new comics has dwindled to almost nothing. Simultaneously, there has been a steady erosion of the existing base of hard-core comics readers, as inexorably declining print runs have forced publishers to continually raise cover prices...Clearly, this continual erosion of the existing consumer base for comics, with a minimal number of new entrants, is the kiss of death."

 

"The problem today is with the paper-delivery mechanism. Printed comics are dead, dead, dead. The corpse is still twitching, but the economics of paper and printing costs are spelling trouble, probably very soon."

 

Gene

[Fabfrank]

When I first read Chucks column it was in is weekly email. He clarified his postion about the death of printed comics the following week. He explained that the new technology being developed would actually help printed comics. He felt that the electronic delivery of comics would provide an additional revenue stream that would offset the cost of printed comics. You can go to the MileHigh website and read the 2 part article. He explains much more clearly than I could why he is excited about this technology and how it could save the industry.

[vic6string]

" the main reason why industry revenues have been up the last few years is because of higher cover prices over time, not volume increases "

 

I couldn't agree more. I understand inflation, but come on, there are virtually no books under 2 bucks anymore, with most well over that. Aside from that, most new collectors worry about collectability and value, and thanks to the Wizard hype machine it is pointless to buy the regular issue of any new book when there is also the super rare variant cover (of course that one will run you no less than 10 bucks). Sportscards companies are doing the same to their hobby, but they have a huge edge... the kids love the players, who they see for free on TV! The Spidey and Xmen movies help, but comics in general have to do more to promote themselves outside of comic shops. Live action TV, cartoons, free comics at the theater... and yes, drop the insane cover prices and lose the variants (or limit them to truly special ocassions).

[joe_collector]

>>Sportscards companies are doing the same to their hobby, but they have a huge edge... the kids love the players, who they see for free on TV!

 

Not only that, but due to the "sealed pack" design, it's the customers who have a shot at the "limited edition" cards, not retailers getting premium kick-backs from Marvel.

[salemthekiller-migration]

during the 80's the fax machine, and in the 90's e-mail was suppose to put the u.s. post office out of business. the real truth is that the uspo has made money over the last two decades(if you were to examine their books you would see that they made money despite the fact that they have to work under budget constraints of the u.s congress).

what does that have to do with comics. well back in the days of 10 cent comic these companies made money.i dont' know the circulation numbers, but i'm sure that they weren't making million on each new issuse that came out. no they were only making pennies pure each issuse. i know thing were cheaper then. so try this. 10 cent for a comic. 3 cents to the publisher, 3 cents to the printer, 3 cents to the distributor, and 1 cent to misc. expenses. today 2.99 for a book. 75 cents for the publisher, 75 cents to the printer, 75 cents to the distributor, and 74 cent to misc. expenses.any wayi find it hard to believe that it isn't profitable for the comic book companies to print comics.

lets look at it another wayin the 80's marvel bought 2 card companies, 1 toy company, and 1 comic book publisher, and then filed bakrupcy.why . 2 card companie to compete for the same dollar , 1 toy company that saturated the market with product, and a comic book company that promply closed its doors.how did marvel do that if they were not making money before the purchases. what bank was going to lend them money if they were a fail company at the time. they sure would not of been let on the stock market if they were failing.

 

ok my real point is what does chuck gain from no more printed comics. he says it right in his article. he has the program. chuck likes to be the middle man. he want a part of the misc. expenses money.don't be fooled by chuck. chuck loves comics.chuck writes about the industry. BUT CHUCK IS A BUSINESS MAN.

so chuck needs to spread the gospel of electric comics. why. becuase until you believe it and start to buy it , chuck will not make money. and what will make you believe it . the so call doom of the print comic. in 1995 how many people prepared for y2k?1999?and who looked follish on 01/01 / 00.if electric comics are really going to take off let them do so on the own merit. don't be sway by someone with a vested intrest.

 

 

 

 

[delekkerste]

lets look at it another wayin the 80's marvel bought 2 card companies, 1 toy company, and 1 comic book publisher, and then filed bakrupcy.why . 2 card companie to compete for the same dollar , 1 toy company that saturated the market with product, and a comic book company that promply closed its doors.how did marvel do that if they were not making money before the purchases.

 

Of course Marvel was making money in the early 1990s. When print runs were in the hundreds of thousands and even millions (such as for McFarlane's Spidey #1 and the second X-Men #1), they were literally minting money. However, greed infected the industry and it all went down the foil-enhanced variant cover speculator drain. You can read all about the Marvel side of it in Dan Raviv's excellent business expose "Comic Wars". Today, you can count the number of titles that sell over 100,000 copies a month on one hand. A book like Y: The Last Man is considered a runaway hit because it sells 20,000 to 30,000 copies a month. X-Statix sells around 30,000 copies a month, a far cry from where Liefeld's X-Force #1 sold in the early 1990s. These are the new economics of the industry.

 

I personally think Chuck and all dealers would lose more in the long run than they would gain from the demise of the printed comic in favor of electronic distribution. Plus, read my sig line...it's not just changing technology that is making comics obsolete. As someone astutely pointed out at the Big Apple Comic Convention in New York yesterday: "I don't see any young people here. Who's going to buy this #$&* from us when we want to sell our collections in 30 years?"

 

Gene

[joe_collector]

>>As someone astutely pointed out at the Big Apple Comic Convention in New York yesterday: "I don't see any young people here. Who's going to buy this #$&* from us when we want to sell our collections in 30 years?"

 

Dang good quote Del, and one that the recent wave of speculators should take note of. Why anyone would think comic book demand would actually increase in 10-20 years is beyond me.

 

Collectors who are willing to pay big bucks are a finite resource, and due our limited lifespan, are guaranteed to decline in the future. The fallacy that kids who don't read comics today, will somehow transform into 30-something collecting maniacs willing to lay down $10K on a single comic book, is a truly bizarre concept.

 

This isn't doom and gloom, just reality. I collect because I want to, and every book I buy in the future will be one I have an nostalgic attachment to, and therefore has intrinsic value that can't be taken away a the collector base ages and withers away.

[delekkerste]

Collectors who are willing to pay big bucks are a finite resource, and due our limited lifespan, are guaranteed to decline in the future. The fallacy that kids who don't read comics today, will somehow transform into 30-something collecting maniacs willing to lay down $10K on a single comic book, is a truly bizarre concept.

 

Amen to that. Let me stop anyone from embarrassing themselves with a lame comeback like, "Well, I started collecting when I was ___(insert age over 18 here), so I don't see why this can't happen." If you have to resort to arguments like that, you better just pack it in already.

 

Going back to the original point of this thread, the overproduction of Modern comics, let me note that the one thing that hits me at every convention I go to is the sheer amount of overproduced Modern #$&* out there. Almost every book published in the 1990s can be found in a 50 cent or $1.00 box, including stuff that used to fetch $25-$35 in Wizard. As for more recent books with the reduced print runs, I don't see much hope for these either as the reduced print runs exist because of reduced demand. At any convention you go to, it is readily apparent that there is no shortage of USM #1 or UXM #1 or Ultimates #1 or Bruce Jones Hulks or Kevin Smith Daredevils or Wolverine: Origin issues. Speculating on this stuff for the long-run is a sucker's bet. They may not end up in the 50 cent bin like their 1990s equivalents like Punisher War Journal #1 or Ghost Rider #25, but anyone expecting them to become the GS 1/XM 94/Hulk 181s of the post-1998 Modern Age is going to be disappointed.

 

Gene

[valiantman]

I love that quote, too...

 

In the future, who will buy all your Silver Age books?

 

Good question...I see a huge surge in collectors for Silver Age books today...

paying prices at or above those of Golden Age books from 20-30 years earlier.

 

Here's a question...why would anyone TODAY pay more for any Silver Age book from the 1960s

than they would for a Golden Age book from the 1930s & 1940s?

Answer: It was YOUR childhood in the 1960s...so those books mean more to you.

 

Why are Bronze Age books starting to skyrocket?

Because they're reaching the magical 30-year plateau today.

 

Personally, my own childhood was in the mid-1980s and early-1990s.

I don't have a personal connection to Golden Age, Silver Age, or Bronze Age books.

 

I'm not buying older books, I'm not "into" those books...and I just don't care about them.

Think about it, thousands and thousands of young comic collectors who can sum up

the entire Bronze Age (in their own minds) by owning one book...Incredible Hulk 181.

 

I have a "personal connection" to the modern books like Valiant comics.

They're cheaper.

They're easier to get.

They're memories that belong to me...not my father...not my grandfather.

 

In 30 years...I don't expect anyone besides "people my age" to care about Valiant.

(And even then, only a few people... after all, I am a realist.)

 

So, the question is...who will buy Silver Age when you're done?

If you don't personally spend your own time & money collecting Golden Age now...

then people just like you won't spend their time or money collecting Silver Age in the future.

 

Will Silver Age comics be worthless? No way!

But what's the point of owning a $10,000 comic if no one will buy it when you're ready to sell?

 

Invest $2,000 in the right comic today and MAYBE make $4,000 in the future.

Invest $2 each in the right comics today and EASILY make $4 each in the future.

 

1990s moderns...cheaper, easier to buy, easier to sell, more meaningful to me...

same profit margin.

So, why would I put my hard-earned money anywhere else?

 

[dam60]

Just to add my two cents to what has been said here:

 

Comic Books are Not a Feasible Long Term Investment

Let's just face it - kids today don't even have the patience for board games, action figures, etc. This generation is all about the Yu-gi-oh cards and the latest and greatest PS2 game. While Spidey / X-Men / DD etc might make its way over into a hot PS2 game, even if a kid did wander into a comic book store, I am sure it would be a one time event. Today's stories are extremely hard to follow (when compared to the classic Done in One storylines of yore) and explore more mature topics (for the most part) than are suitable for younger children. The market now is not inviting for this next generation. I would reiterate the question of "who is going to buy this sh*t in 30 years?" It seems obvious that there is no new interest and no demand with abundant supply = bad things.

 

Personally, I have curtailed my comic spending considerably because I now view this as a source of entertainment and not as an investment. I of course have spent a substantial amount of money and would love it for my initial investment to continue to appreciate, but I am only spending money that I would have otherwise spent on a movie, a few drinks, etc. My discretionary income - not my savings.

 

Which brings me to a point that has been made - collect what you like. If something has intrinsic value to you (whether it be the Valiants or the Death in the Family storyline) and spending your money on it makes you happy, then go for it!! This is not to say that people can't make money with the comic book market, but 30 years down the road I don't want to be left holding the bag on a few books that now sell for 10 cents on the dollar.

 

And let me just end with this: many people who held shares of Enron/Worldcom/Adelphia, etc thinking that "it'll come back" are now left with literally NOTHING. Don't find yourself in a similar situation with your comics.

 

DAM

[Darthdiesel]

At any convention you go to, it is readily apparent that there is no shortage of USM #1 or UXM #1 or Ultimates #1 or Bruce Jones Hulks or Kevin Smith Daredevils or Wolverine: Origin issues.

 

Yes but what are they selling for? Percentage over cover?

Tysons show yesterday -

$350 for a NM USM 1 white Spider-man raw; I looked at it...2 bad enough dings and corner flaws that would take it down to a NM 9.2

USM 1 red cover in "NM" = $125.00

UXM 1 DF variant (black cover) = $45 - out of sealed bag with VF at best hopes if slabbed...

and I can go on...my point - they are readily available from dealers, but not at steals...they will still cost the pretty penny.

 

Speculating on this stuff for the long-run is a sucker's bet. They may not end up in the 50 cent bin like their 1990s equivalents like Punisher War Journal #1 or Ghost Rider #25, but anyone expecting them to become the GS 1/XM 94/Hulk 181s of the post-1998 Modern Age is going to be disappointed.

 

- u r right...Power Pack 27 is the way to go....!

 

[vic6string]

dotcomfool said:

" Invest $2,000 in the right comic today and MAYBE make $4,000 in the future. "

 

I agree with this one.

 

" Invest $2 each in the right comics today and EASILY make $4 each in the future. "

 

This one is a little tougher. The problem is hitting the "right comic" is like playing the lotto. There are something like 9 zillion new titles launching every month, most of which never amount to anything. Most of them have a cover price of no less than $2.95, and that is for the regular cover. Everyone knows that the variant cover is the way to go, and that one will run you no less than 10 bucks on the first day of release. Of course, there are the books that are "sure-fire" hits, but if you know it is, so does everyone else. To make the money you have to find the books that no one knew about(or no one was paying attention to), and find them before they explode (llike the Hulk stuff) and even then you have to buy them at the right time and sell them at the right time. You might buy 50 books at 3 bucks each before you find that one book that you can "easily" make 4 dollars on.

 

If you are talking investment, right now it is the hidden stuff that I think has some potential in the future. With the "print to order" mentality of Marvel, especially early on when no one took notice, some stuff saw very limited release. And with no one taking notice, those copies got bought up by collectors of the titles, or hit back issue long boxes (not usually good for keeping those 9.8s in shape) Books like Black Panther or other little niche titles are hard to find for completists who missed them. Sure, there isn't much demand, but there is not much supply, and demand can always pick up later for whatever reason (remember, Hulk 181 meant nothing until GSX1, Iron Man 55 was back issue fodder for years before the Infinity stuff, and the old Dell Solar and Magnus books were nothing before Valiant, etc...)

[joe_collector]

>>(remember, Hulk 181 meant nothing until GSX1, Iron Man 55 was back issue fodder for years before the Infinity stuff, and the old Dell Solar and Magnus books were nothing before Valiant, etc...)

 

Exactly the point, and with no kids buying and growing up with the stuff, the hidden stuff will stay hidden.

 

IOW, everyone who wants will have already bought it, and placed it in a bag & board in NM+ condition.

[valiantman]

"Invest $2 each in the right comics today and EASILY make $4 each in the future. "

 

There are something like 9 zillion new titles launching every month, most of which never amount to anything.

 

Actually, I was still arguing for Valiant comics here...surprised?

 

There are literally hundreds of bargain bins and backissue boxes

around the country with nuggets of Valiant gems for $2 or less.

 

Everyday, I get new excited emails from Valiant fans who've found

books like Harbinger #1 - #6, Rai #1 - #5, X-O Manowar #1 - #6,

Magnus #1 or #12, or Solar #1 - #10 in their local comic shop bins.

(Notice how these are all 1991-1992 books...not a single post-Superman75 in the list.)

 

A quick look at Ebay will show an "immediate flip" opportunity around $5 each,

with some of those going immediately for even more.

 

Sure, you've got to weed through thousands of Turok #1 and Bloodshot #1

to find them...but they're in there...and at 10-12 years old...the nostalgia's just starting.

It'll be about 20 more years before Valiant fans become "old fogeys" and we start

gnashing our teeth at the young whipper-snappers who wouldn't know a good

story if it hit them in the Pikachu.

[highlite23]

There's a saying that goes "It's worth what someones willing to pay you" Truer words were never spoken.

 

I know i'm a newbie and all, but i think my story fits the discussion...I'm 38 years old, and some time back I found myself needing to kill time and wondered into a local comic book store, the last time i looked at a comic i was probably 15.

 

As i looked around, all these memories of my youth started rushing through my head, running home to watch Batman, Spiderman narrated by Stan Lee, The Incredible Hulk, and on and on.

 

Needless to say i was hooked once again, I collect for the "Personal Value" of a given comic, yes it's nice to know something is worth "X" amount of dollars, but in the end all of this is a link to a simpler, imaginative time in my life.

 

Yes, every Wednesday I go in and check out the new stuff, and some are worth my time, most aren't and thats fine. In 30 years will all of this be worth anything?? Don't know, don't really care, I sit hear reading the new Loeb, Lee Batman and my mind flashes back to a little kid sitting on the floor watching Adam West be the coolest Batman a 10 year old ever saw.

 

My sons 7, and Comics are part of what bonds us, hopefully the Nintendo generation takes a little time for variety in their lives.

 

Now i find myself asking questions in this forum so I don't get ripped off, "NM+" sure it is, I'm still a little green in that area, but thats ok, I know I can spend an hour rifleing through back issue boxes and find a #1 Nightwing, or #120 Batman, maybe nothing earth shatering to many, but to me it's something special.

 

I guess only time will tell, but I see Electronic comics being an option, not a sloution in the future.