Rough Estimate of Comic Book Market Cap ? 1 1

[david99]

Rough Estimate of Comic Book Market Cap ?

I take it as a given that this a theoretical exercise to a certain extent. Putting aside issue of "market liquidity" at any given point, and/or inclusion of which genres.

 

Anybidy have any ideas for about what is the "market cap" on the industry ?

As a side question, how much of the market churns on a yearly basis ?

I am guessing based on Ha.com auctions at roughly 30 million a year, that the entire markets churns at 100 million a year.

Would it be a stretch to say the market cap of all comic books is approaching 1 billion dollars ?

i am curious to the analytical approach anybody can take and add to this subject 

[piper]

33 minutes ago, david99 said:

Rough Estimate of Comic Book Market Cap ?

I take it as a given that this a theoretical exercise to a certain extent. Putting aside issue of "market liquidity" at any given point, and/or inclusion of which genres.

 

Anybidy have any ideas for about what is the "market cap" on the industry ?

As a side question, how much of the market churns on a yearly basis ?

I am guessing based on Ha.com auctions at roughly 30 million a year, that the entire markets churns at 100 million a year.

Would it be a stretch to say the market cap of all comic books is approaching 1 billion dollars ?

i am curious to the analytical approach anybody can take and add to this subject 

I'm not a finance guy, but I think GPA tracks total auction sales, you then have to guesstimate for raw and all sales not tracked (e.g private sales, comic link etc.)

I would imagine that raw sales wouldn't be huge on a per unit basis but volume would add up.

 

[Lazyboy]

54 minutes ago, david99 said:

As a side question, how much of the market churns on a yearly basis ?

I am guessing based on Ha.com auctions at roughly 30 million a year, that the entire markets churns at 100 million a year.

I assume you're talking specifically about back issues, since dozens of millions of new issues are sold every year.

54 minutes ago, david99 said:

Would it be a stretch to say the market cap of all comic books is approaching 1 billion dollars ?

If the market cap of all comic books is approaching 1 billion dollars, sell as fast as you can because the market is crashing. I don't think you understand just how many comic books exist.

[oldmilwaukee6er]

$300M counting the whole of the secondary market?

And I do recall reading that Heritage does about $30M per year.

[lou_fine]

5 hours ago, piper said:

I would imagine that raw sales wouldn't be huge on a per unit basis but volume would add up.

If you are talking about per unit quantity basis as opposed to dollar sales, I would have to completely disagree with you on this point here.

If you ever go to the regular non-media event comic conventions, my bet is that slabbed sales from a per unit quantity basis is most probably less than 1% of the total unit quantity sales at these cons.  If you are talking about sales from a dollars point of view, the slabbed sales portion would definitely go up, but probably not as high as you might think. 

[shadroch]

There are over three million items that pop up when you enter "comic books" on eBay.

I'd say that probably means yearly sales well north of thirty million dollars.

$100 million a year seems pretty low to me.

[ThothAmon]

In the last three months alone eBay has sold 53 items in the comic category between $10k and 50k. 138 items between 5k and 10k. 467 items between 2.5k and 5k. 847 items between 1.5k and 2.5k. 1192 between 1k and 1.5k. 1705 between $750 and1k. 3925 between $500-700. 15306 between $250-500. 47459 between $100-250. 73700 between $50-100. 126000 between $25-50. 234000 between $10-25. 641000 between $.01 an 10. Using the mean as a price point this comes to a grand total of $42,666,000 since early February on eBay.  Very roughly $160,000,000 a year on eBay.  Not too shabby if you ask me. 

[oakman29]

1 hour ago, ThothAmon said:

In the last three months alone eBay has sold 53 items in the comic category between $10k and 50k. 138 items between 5k and 10k. 467 items between 2.5k and 5k. 847 items between 1.5k and 2.5k. 1192 between 1k and 1.5k. 1705 between $750 and1k. 3925 between $500-700. 15306 between $250-500. 47459 between $100-250. 73700 between $50-100. 126000 between $25-50. 234000 between $10-25. 641000 between $.01 an 10. Using the mean as a price point this comes to a grand total of $42,666,000 since early February on eBay.  Very roughly $160,000,000 a year on eBay.  Not too shabby if you ask me. 

My cap is infinite. I will truly never run out of runs to collect.

 

[lizards2]

36 minutes ago, oakman29 said:

My cap is infinite. I will truly never run out of runs to collect.

 

My cap has a nifty logo on it that invites conversation whenever I'm out and about.

[ComicConnoisseur]

3 hours ago, ThothAmon said:

In the last three months alone eBay has sold 53 items in the comic category between $10k and 50k. 138 items between 5k and 10k. 467 items between 2.5k and 5k. 847 items between 1.5k and 2.5k. 1192 between 1k and 1.5k. 1705 between $750 and1k. 3925 between $500-700. 15306 between $250-500. 47459 between $100-250. 73700 between $50-100. 126000 between $25-50. 234000 between $10-25. 641000 between $.01 an 10. Using the mean as a price point this comes to a grand total of $42,666,000 since early February on eBay.  Very roughly $160,000,000 a year on eBay.  Not too shabby if you ask me. 

Yep, the comic book hobby might not be doing great with monthly print comic sales,but the rest of the hobby is very strong. Comic books are one of the top hobbies in today's collecting field.  

What are the top ones?

Lego

Video Games

Funko

Star Wars action figures

MTG

Vinyl records(Beatles,Led Zep,etc.)

SPORTS-CARDS(VINTAGE(Ruth,Mantle),and SUPERSTARS(Brady,LeBron)

I would even dare say comic books has a better future than coins as a hobby. 

 

Edited May 6, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[GM8]

What a great question.  It would take some research but I think you could come to a close estimate with a few key pieces of information:

1) ebay annual sales.  Someone said ~$160 Million above.  This sounds reasonable but a more accurate estimate could be obtained with the last 3 months sales and annualizing it.  

2) off-market sales.  Combined LCS (back issues only), Facebook, craigslist, CGC and other private sales are at least as much as ebay.  Estimating these is art not science.

3) Diamond new issue revenues, their sales could be taken and given an average cost per book.  Relatively easy with comichron I believe.

Edited May 6, 2017 by GM8

[david99]

On 5/5/2017 at 5:53 PM, Lazyboy said:

I assume you're talking specifically about back issues, since dozens of millions of new issues are sold every year.

If the market cap of all comic books is approaching 1 billion dollars, sell as fast as you can because the market is crashing. I don't think you understand just how many comic books exist.

I am not sure that I agree that 1 billion is a crashing market unless we have different ideas as to what "qualifies as being considered as part of the market cap"

But if I were to define it, admittedly rather arbitrarily, as that the comic book needs to be a slabbed comic book and have traded on a major auction house website within 10 years, I think1 billion is a fair estimate

Again, I admit this exercise is theoretical. I am mostly just trying to understand the size of what we are dealing with here in this comic collectible hobby.

Edited May 28, 2017 by david99

[valiantman]

I have been downloading completed CGC sales from Ebay since 2013.  I only have the item number, title, and dollar amounts, but there has consistently been a $30M to $33M total in each year of 2014, 2015, and 2016 for ebay slab sales.

[Lazyboy]

On 2017-05-28 at 11:28 AM, david99 said:

I am not sure that I agree that 1 billion is a crashing market unless we have different ideas as to what "qualifies as being considered as part of the market cap"

But if I were to define it, admittedly rather arbitrarily, as that the comic book needs to be a slabbed comic book and have traded on a major auction house website within 10 years, I think1 billion is a fair estimate

Again, I admit this exercise is theoretical. I am mostly just trying to understand the size of what we are dealing with here in this comic collectible hobby.

What does that have to do with your original question? You're now talking about something else entirely.

[david99]

57 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

What does that have to do with your original question? You're now talking about something else entirely.

Can you clarify the source of your confusion please. I thought I was being clear. If not, please help me. Thanks.

[Lazyboy]

54 minutes ago, david99 said:

Can you clarify the source of your confusion please. I thought I was being clear. If not, please help me. Thanks.

 

On 2017-05-05 at 3:55 PM, david99 said:

Rough Estimate of Comic Book Market Cap ?

I take it as a given that this a theoretical exercise to a certain extent. Putting aside issue of "market liquidity" at any given point, and/or inclusion of which genres.

...

Would it be a stretch to say the market cap of all comic books is approaching 1 billion dollars ?

On 2017-05-28 at 11:28 AM, david99 said:

I am not sure that I agree that 1 billion is a crashing market unless we have different ideas as to what "qualifies as being considered as part of the market cap"

But if I were to define it, admittedly rather arbitrarily, as that the comic book needs to be a slabbed comic book and have traded on a major auction house website within 10 years, I think1 billion is a fair estimate

Again, I admit this exercise is theoretical. I am mostly just trying to understand the size of what we are dealing with here in this comic collectible hobby.

 

[exitmusicblue]

There is no ceiling on this market.  The films have incubated masses of future collectors worldwide.  As long as the fixation remains on vintage rather than the quality of (largely) crappy Modern, we are good.

Edited June 1, 2017 by exitmusicblue

[Binoy]

On ‎5‎/‎6‎/‎2017 at 11:52 AM, ThothAmon said:

In the last three months alone eBay has sold 53 items in the comic category between $10k and 50k. 138 items between 5k and 10k. 467 items between 2.5k and 5k. 847 items between 1.5k and 2.5k. 1192 between 1k and 1.5k. 1705 between $750 and1k. 3925 between $500-700. 15306 between $250-500. 47459 between $100-250. 73700 between $50-100. 126000 between $25-50. 234000 between $10-25. 641000 between $.01 an 10. Using the mean as a price point this comes to a grand total of $42,666,000 since early February on eBay.  Very roughly $160,000,000 a year on eBay.  Not too shabby if you ask me. 

Hi ThothAmon - this is crazy interesting data!   Were you able to get this from eBAY?     If so, I'd be really grateful if you would let me know how you got this.

Many thanks.

Binoy