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justice league the 300million budget movie thread for your pleasure
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Started by jsilverjanet,

14 posts in this topic

paperheart

paperheart

Posted
Posted

Scotty has gone over to the dark side

 

 

I wasn't going to do another Justice League post for awhile, but in doing research for something else I stumbled upon this bizarre factoid. As of now Wonder Woman has earned $412.5 million in North America and Justice League has earned $214.7m. All logical expectations for the Super Friends movie argue that it will end its domestic run with over/under $240m. So, give or take the breaks, the two DC Films offerings will earn around $650-$655m in North America.

Here's the weird thing: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($330 million) and Suicide Squad ($325m) earned almost identical combined North American grosses.  Now that's not to say that Justice League wasn't a gigantic disappointment, even though I'd argue the film's post-debut legs were fine and the film's overseas figures were okay (more on that in a moment). But let's imagine a different scenario: Let's pretend that Wonder Woman "only" made $325 million this summer and Justice League made around $330m.

You'd have the same combined DC Films domestic box office on the same would-be production budgets ($150m for Wonder Woman and around $300m for Justice League). The only difference would be the narrative, which was that Wonder Woman did really friggin well (as opposed to jaw-droppingly miraculous) while Justice League did just fine under the circumstances. Or, had Wonder Woman made "only" $255m while Justice League snagged $400m, it'd be the same numbers but a vastly different narrative.

 

 

It wouldn't be that much different than, if in the summer of 2008, Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk both earned around $225 million apiece, as opposed to the former earning $318m and the latter earning $132m. By the way, Iron Man and Incredible Hulk earned a combined $848m worldwide in 2008, which is more than what Thor and Captain America earned ($820m) in 2011. Of course, it helps that folks liked most of the MCU movies, but that's a different conversation.

Speaking of budgets, I can only go by the official figures so bear with me. Batman v Superman officially cost $250 million while Suicide Squad officially cost $175m. That's a combined budget of $425m and a total domestic gross of $655m. And Wonder Woman " officially" cost $150m while Justice League cost, well, let's assume the $300m figure is correct. So the 2017 DC Films movies will earn around $650-$655m on a combined budget of $450m.

 

If you're just going by domestic grosses, that's not a huge difference, with the major factor being that Wonder Woman greatly overperformed while Justice League underperformed. Yes, Justice League by itself is a disappointing and potentially money-losing movie. But the DC Films offerings as a whole did about as well this year as they did last year. And if we're going to treat these movies as part of the same brand, that consistency should not be ignored even if the smaller movie did better than the bigger movie.

So what about worldwide grosses?  Well, here's where it gets a little complicated. And yeah, there will be some guesswork in regard to Justice League.

In 2016, Batman v Superman earned $542.9 million overseas for an $873.3m worldwide total. Suicide Squad, which didn't play in China, earned $420.5m overseas for a $745.6m worldwide cume. That's  $963.4m overseas and $1.619 billion worldwide for the two movies. And this year, Wonder Woman earned $409.2m overseas and $821.8m worldwide while Justice League will probably earn around $425-$450m overseas for an over/under $665m worldwide cume. So that would be a combined $835m overseas and around $1.488b worldwide.

So looking at all five respective releases in the DC Films library thus far, you'll notice that Wonder Woman overperformed in North America, Batman v Superman overperformed overseas and Justice League underperformed in North America. Otherwise, and this is counting Man of Steel ($291 million domestic/$377m overseas/$668m worldwide on a $225m budget in 2013), the numbers have been relatively consistent. What has fluctuated is the budgetary figures and the constant hope that THIS DC Films movie was going to play like a top-tier MCU movie.

But maybe that was and is never going to happen. Maybe Batman v Superman is the peak and that film's overseas overperformance was something of a fluke. If the rest of the films can be expected to earn over/under $300 million domestic (assuming Aquaman plays like The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug adjusted for inflation) and over/under $400m overseas, then those are projected numbers that can be accounted for when considering expectations and budgets.

But the fact remains that the two DC Films from 2017 made almost identical domestic grosses compared to the two DC Films offerings from 2016. If Wonder Woman overperformed while Justice League underperformed, that's still an average domestic figure of around $325m a pop. The idea of having to start from scratch or do a soft reboot every time one of these films doesn't hit Avengers numbers may be in itself the key "flaw" in the DC Films game plan. Assuming the budgets can be kept in check, there is little reason why a DC Films franchise/brand can't flourish with movies that aren't expected to earn more than $700m worldwide.

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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

Words. They mean something.

Then why are you still posting $275MM in your chart?  Other than to be petulant and defiant at this point I don't see any reason.  

Either post the industry  consensus figure of $300MM or don't post anything if you can't refrain from putting your thumb on the scale. 

-J.

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Gatsby77

Gatsby77

Posted
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2 hours ago, paperheart said:

Scotty has gone over to the dark side

 

 

I wasn't going to do another Justice League post for awhile, but in doing research for something else I stumbled upon this bizarre factoid. As of now Wonder Woman has earned $412.5 million in North America and Justice League has earned $214.7m. All logical expectations for the Super Friends movie argue that it will end its domestic run with over/under $240m. So, give or take the breaks, the two DC Films offerings will earn around $650-$655m in North America.

Here's the weird thing: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($330 million) and Suicide Squad ($325m) earned almost identical combined North American grosses.  Now that's not to say that Justice League wasn't a gigantic disappointment, even though I'd argue the film's post-debut legs were fine and the film's overseas figures were okay (more on that in a moment). But let's imagine a different scenario: Let's pretend that Wonder Woman "only" made $325 million this summer and Justice League made around $330m.

You'd have the same combined DC Films domestic box office on the same would-be production budgets ($150m for Wonder Woman and around $300m for Justice League). The only difference would be the narrative, which was that Wonder Woman did really friggin well (as opposed to jaw-droppingly miraculous) while Justice League did just fine under the circumstances. Or, had Wonder Woman made "only" $255m while Justice League snagged $400m, it'd be the same numbers but a vastly different narrative.

 

 

 

It wouldn't be that much different than, if in the summer of 2008, Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk both earned around $225 million apiece, as opposed to the former earning $318m and the latter earning $132m. By the way, Iron Man and Incredible Hulk earned a combined $848m worldwide in 2008, which is more than what Thor and Captain America earned ($820m) in 2011. Of course, it helps that folks liked most of the MCU movies, but that's a different conversation.

Speaking of budgets, I can only go by the official figures so bear with me. Batman v Superman officially cost $250 million while Suicide Squad officially cost $175m. That's a combined budget of $425m and a total domestic gross of $655m. And Wonder Woman " officially" cost $150m while Justice League cost, well, let's assume the $300m figure is correct. So the 2017 DC Films movies will earn around $650-$655m on a combined budget of $450m.

 

If you're just going by domestic grosses, that's not a huge difference, with the major factor being that Wonder Woman greatly overperformed while Justice League underperformed. Yes, Justice League by itself is a disappointing and potentially money-losing movie. But the DC Films offerings as a whole did about as well this year as they did last year. And if we're going to treat these movies as part of the same brand, that consistency should not be ignored even if the smaller movie did better than the bigger movie.

So what about worldwide grosses?  Well, here's where it gets a little complicated. And yeah, there will be some guesswork in regard to Justice League.

In 2016, Batman v Superman earned $542.9 million overseas for an $873.3m worldwide total. Suicide Squad, which didn't play in China, earned $420.5m overseas for a $745.6m worldwide cume. That's  $963.4m overseas and $1.619 billion worldwide for the two movies. And this year, Wonder Woman earned $409.2m overseas and $821.8m worldwide while Justice League will probably earn around $425-$450m overseas for an over/under $665m worldwide cume. So that would be a combined $835m overseas and around $1.488b worldwide.

So looking at all five respective releases in the DC Films library thus far, you'll notice that Wonder Woman overperformed in North America, Batman v Superman overperformed overseas and Justice League underperformed in North America. Otherwise, and this is counting Man of Steel ($291 million domestic/$377m overseas/$668m worldwide on a $225m budget in 2013), the numbers have been relatively consistent. What has fluctuated is the budgetary figures and the constant hope that THIS DC Films movie was going to play like a top-tier MCU movie.

But maybe that was and is never going to happen. Maybe Batman v Superman is the peak and that film's overseas overperformance was something of a fluke. If the rest of the films can be expected to earn over/under $300 million domestic (assuming Aquaman plays like The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug adjusted for inflation) and over/under $400m overseas, then those are projected numbers that can be accounted for when considering expectations and budgets.

But the fact remains that the two DC Films from 2017 made almost identical domestic grosses compared to the two DC Films offerings from 2016. If Wonder Woman overperformed while Justice League underperformed, that's still an average domestic figure of around $325m a pop. The idea of having to start from scratch or do a soft reboot every time one of these films doesn't hit Avengers numbers may be in itself the key "flaw" in the DC Films game plan. Assuming the budgets can be kept in check, there is little reason why a DC Films franchise/brand can't flourish with movies that aren't expected to earn more than $700m worldwide.

Great analysis!

But I disagree on two salient points that you may not have considered:

1) Domestic take is more important than international take, because studios earn a greater percentage of the dollar than they do overseas. So in terms of profitability, it's far better to do 60% of your business domestically than 60% of your business overseas.

2) My take on Justice League's performance is that it's a lagging indicator of the general public's dissatisfaction with Zack Snyder's take.

Folks showed up for BvS. -- And many were turned off.

Folks gave it another shot with Suicide Squad -- And many were still turned off, despite that movie's relative financial success.

So they simply decided to sit out Justice League when the marketing made it look like more of the same.

After all, "Fool me once..."

But we see this a lot with franchises. Perfect example is The Matrix.

The Matrix was awesome, blew people away. Made $171 million domestic / $463 million globally. Cool.

On the strength of The Matrix, many more people went to Matrix Reloaded. It made $281 million domestic / $742 million globally.

The problem?

Matrix Reloaded sucked.

To anyone who saw both movies, it was no surprise when Matrix Revolutions fell flat -- performing the worst of the trilogy -- $139 million domestic / $427 million globally.

Matrix 2 succeeded because audiences loved The Matrix. But Matrix 3 failed because audiences hated Matrix 2. Yet to an outsider, it _looks_ like Matrix 2 was the best movie of the bunch.

I see the same dynamic at play with Justice League, which means Wonder Woman was an outlier.

And to me, it was -- because it had a totally different look and feel than the three Snyder films, and a decent plot that could almost have stood alone as a spy thriller even if you omitted the Wonder Woman elements (Winter Soldier did this as well -- produced a good movie despite also being a superhero film).

 

 

 

 

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revat

revat

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

Great analysis!

But I disagree on two salient points that you may not have considered:

1) Domestic take is more important than international take, because studios earn a greater percentage of the dollar than they do overseas. So in terms of profitability, it's far better to do 60% of your business domestically than 60% of your business overseas.

2) My take on Justice League's performance is that it's a lagging indicator of the general public's dissatisfaction with Zack Snyder's take.

Folks showed up for BvS. -- And many were turned off.

Folks gave it another shot with Suicide Squad -- And many were still turned off, despite that movie's relative financial success.

So they simply decided to sit out Justice League when the marketing made it look like more of the same.

After all, "Fool me once..."

But we see this a lot with franchises. Perfect example is The Matrix.

The Matrix was awesome, blew people away. Made $171 million domestic / $463 million globally. Cool.

On the strength of The Matrix, many more people went to Matrix Reloaded. It made $281 million domestic / $742 million globally.

The problem?

Matrix Reloaded sucked.

To anyone who saw both movies, it was no surprise when Matrix Revolutions fell flat -- performing the worst of the trilogy -- $139 million domestic / $427 million globally.

Matrix 2 succeeded because audiences loved The Matrix. But Matrix 3 failed because audiences hated Matrix 2. Yet to an outsider, it _looks_ like Matrix 2 was the best movie of the bunch.

I see the same dynamic at play with Justice League, which means Wonder Woman was an outlier.

And to me, it was -- because it had a totally different look and feel than the three Snyder films, and a decent plot that could almost have stood alone as a spy thriller even if you omitted the Wonder Woman elements (Winter Soldier did this as well -- produced a good movie despite also being a superhero film).

 

 

 

 

I know I sat out Justice League (at least for now), and that means my wife sat it out.  And I've got to be in someone's core demographic, and I'm sure I'm not the only in that demographic who sat it out.

Male 18-49, living in a nerdy area of the country.

Big comic book fan.

See 90% of Marvel movies in theaters.  Probably see around 10 movies per year in theaters.

Currently watching at least 4 comic tv shows on TV, including Gotham and Arrow.  Hell I even watched all of inhumans

Saw 3/4 previous DCEU movies in theater

loved Wonder Woman, kinda liked SS and BvS and MOS but not too much.

 

And yet....soft pass on Justice League thus far.  I was already in 'wait and see' mode before the reviews.

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Bosco685

Bosco685

Posted
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1 hour ago, revat said:

I know I sat out Justice League (at least for now), and that means my wife sat it out.  And I've got to be in someone's core demographic, and I'm sure I'm not the only in that demographic who sat it out.

Male 18-49, living in a nerdy area of the country.

Big comic book fan.

See 90% of Marvel movies in theaters.  Probably see around 10 movies per year in theaters.

Currently watching at least 4 comic tv shows on TV, including Gotham and Arrow.  Hell I even watched all of inhumans

Saw 3/4 previous DCEU movies in theater

loved Wonder Woman, kinda liked SS and BvS and MOS but not too much.

 

And yet....soft pass on Justice League thus far.  I was already in 'wait and see' mode before the reviews.

I'm just surprised you kinda liked BvS, but are so-so on MoS. The first movie, for me, laid the work in an emotional way while also delivering a high-powered threat to Superman only ever demonstrated in Superman 2 (though not as deadly).

You probably would be okay with Justice League. Not love it. Just okay. Because, you did sit through Inhumans. And this is far from that.

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revat

revat

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Posted
Just now, Bosco685 said:
1 hour ago, revat said:

I know I sat out Justice League (at least for now), and that means my wife sat it out.  And I've got to be in someone's core demographic, and I'm sure I'm not the only in that demographic who sat it out.

Male 18-49, living in a nerdy area of the country.

Big comic book fan.

See 90% of Marvel movies in theaters.  Probably see around 10 movies per year in theaters.

Currently watching at least 4 comic tv shows on TV, including Gotham and Arrow.  Hell I even watched all of inhumans

Saw 3/4 previous DCEU movies in theater

loved Wonder Woman, kinda liked SS and BvS and MOS but not too much.

 

And yet....soft pass on Justice League thus far.  I was already in 'wait and see' mode before the reviews.

I'm just surprised you kinda liked BvS, but are so-so on MoS. The first movie, for me, laid the work in an emotional way while also delivering a high-powered threat to Superman only ever demonstrated in Superman 2 (though not as deadly).

You probably would be okay with Justice League. Not love it. Just okay. Because, you did sit through Inhumans. And this is far from that.

I actually DO think I'll likely enjoy JL, I'm just not sure its worth my holiday $$/time at this point.  I saw Thor, COCO, I'll see Star Wars, and my wife is pushing for the Linklater movie.  Another part of the year, in another year, maybe I get to it in the theater.  But its just not a MUST see for us and our circle.

 

Also, MOS is better upon rewatch, and SS is actually much much worse upon rewatch.  BvS is about the same, though I haven't seen the extended cut which everyone seems to agree is better. 

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