BLACK WIDOW: THE MOVIE (TBD) 4 4

[Gatsby77]

12 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Assuming what they are reporting is even true, A) it is not counted toward the official BO anywhere, despite the fact that many media outlets seem desperate to do it that way on this, and B) This most likely is cutting into their ancillary revenues by an equal amount.  

-J.

Umm...no.

A) Even if it's not counted towards the official BO anywhere, $80M domestic is still the largest opening weekend of any film released in 2020 or 2021.

B) "Assuming what they are reporting is even true" - this is the first time Disney's opted to report the figures. Even if it's because they feel that *just* $80M domestic was under-performing, if they were lying - it's securities fraud. You *really* think they'd open themselves up to shareholder lawsuits for lying about the Disney+ take of Black Widow's first weekend? 

C) "This most likely is cutting into their ancillary revenues by an equal amount."

How do you figure?

1) Disney+ gets 100% of the revenue from its Premier Access payments, vs. (at best) just 70% of the first weekend's domestic theatrical gross. So $60M streaming is worth more than $80M in domestic box office gross.

2) What ancillary revenues is it cannibalizing? Future DVD sales? Future distribution sales to Netflix (which it doesn't need, owning Disney+)? Merchandizing via Black Widow toy sales?

Either way, there's no way it's cannibalizing ancillary revenues "by an equal amount," again, because the Premier Service payments go 100% to Disney, whereas they get only a fraction of the ancillary revenues via licensing and post-theatrical distribution.

[ExNihilo]

13 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

I also think all of these will out-gross Black Widow.

I wouldn't consider that a statement on the quality of Black Widow relative to those other films and more the simple reality that as life returns to normal, more and more people will be comfortable seeing movies in theaters.  Even with 65+" TV's and 8.2 speakers, you can't replicate the cinematic experience.  I've got great speakers, but I can't blast them because it'll shake the building and I'm not sure my neighbors would appreciate that.

[Bosco685]

7 hours ago, NewWorldOrder said:

I went in with low expectations and while it wasn't perfect it was much better than I thought. 

Another reference point for the other thread...

[Gatsby77]

So...spoilers, obvs. but this was brilliant.

 

[Bosco685]

47 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

So...spoilers, obvs. but this was brilliant.

 

I thought the very same thing with the helicopter scene with hundreds of bullets flying at the helicopter, and White Widow just sits there like she is hanging around waiting for sis.

But this is yet another Hollywood thing to build excitement. I was watching Frank Grillo's Boss-Level the other day and while a helicopter is shredding his apartment with a Gatling gun he casually walks over to retrieve his coffee cup.

[TupennyConan]

The A-Team taught us not to fear bullets.  

[Bosco685]

40 minutes ago, TupennyConan said:

The A-Team taught us not to fear bullets.  

These pearls of wisdom you drop on us from time to time are incredible

[drotto]

2 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

Umm...no.

A) Even if it's not counted towards the official BO anywhere, $80M domestic is still the largest opening weekend of any film released in 2020 or 2021.

B) "Assuming what they are reporting is even true" - this is the first time Disney's opted to report the figures. Even if it's because they feel that *just* $80M domestic was under-performing, if they were lying - it's securities fraud. You *really* think they'd open themselves up to shareholder lawsuits for lying about the Disney+ take of Black Widow's first weekend? 

C) "This most likely is cutting into their ancillary revenues by an equal amount."

How do you figure?

1) Disney+ gets 100% of the revenue from its Premier Access payments, vs. (at best) just 70% of the first weekend's domestic theatrical gross. So $60M streaming is worth more than $80M in domestic box office gross.

2) What ancillary revenues is it cannibalizing? Future DVD sales? Future distribution sales to Netflix (which it doesn't need, owning Disney+)? Merchandizing via Black Widow toy sales?

Either way, there's no way it's cannibalizing ancillary revenues "by an equal amount," again, because the Premier Service payments go 100% to Disney, whereas they get only a fraction of the ancillary revenues via licensing and post-theatrical distribution.

A) Yes, 80 million is good for 2020 and 2021, but it is the media trying to paint a pretty picture. At this point in the US most theaters are open, and the majority are at full capacity. There was little physical obstacles stopping people from going. Yes, we have lost a lot of screens, but there is very little competition so BW was able to get good screen counts. If this was 2019, we would be calling this a flop by MCU standards. In today's reality it is very hard to judge, especially when that reality is still changing.  It is hard to compair how one movie did vs another when public sentiment on Covid by people and governments change almost daily.

The question now becomes, is this the new normal for movies in theaters?  What is success post Covid? Is this the best we can expect going forward, or are we still on the upswing?  Has the theater landscape changed forever Is? Is this just the performance of a mediocre movie and the fundamental landscape has not changed? Fact is we just do not know. But if $80 is a good number now, the money side of movies is going to have massive implications for the industry.

B) We do not know what $60 million means for streaming. How does this translate to sales going forward? We do know when you buy BW you have the movie till it is removed from Premier.  That means you get no further money for repeat viewings. Also, how front loaded will this type of purchase be? 

 

Theaters always imposed a level of supply and demand on new films.  You only have so many seats, especially at prime times. Streaming essentially removes the supply issue. So what percentage of people likely to buy BW for 2 months have already done so. Remember, everyone can get into that theater. My gut is it will have a much larger drop off then 2nd week box office typically in Theaters has. I would not be surprised if 75% to 80% of digital sales have occurred already.  Remember, if you are not hyped to see this, it is free in 3 months.

 

You also have the added complication that for $30, how many people will be able to watch that purchase? Between people having friends over, and account sharing, it is almost impossible to know how many viewers there have been. Those unknown viewers are all lost ticket sales.

[D84]

3 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

So...spoilers, obvs. but this was brilliant.

 

The movie reminds me of Fast 9. It makes no sense, but family.

[Jaydogrules]

3 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

Umm...no.

A) Even if it's not counted towards the official BO anywhere, $80M domestic is still the largest opening weekend of any film released in 2020 or 2021.

B) "Assuming what they are reporting is even true" - this is the first time Disney's opted to report the figures. Even if it's because they feel that *just* $80M domestic was under-performing, if they were lying - it's securities fraud. You *really* think they'd open themselves up to shareholder lawsuits for lying about the Disney+ take of Black Widow's first weekend? 

C) "This most likely is cutting into their ancillary revenues by an equal amount."

How do you figure?

1) Disney+ gets 100% of the revenue from its Premier Access payments, vs. (at best) just 70% of the first weekend's domestic theatrical gross. So $60M streaming is worth more than $80M in domestic box office gross.

2) What ancillary revenues is it cannibalizing? Future DVD sales? Future distribution sales to Netflix (which it doesn't need, owning Disney+)? Merchandizing via Black Widow toy sales?

Either way, there's no way it's cannibalizing ancillary revenues "by an equal amount," again, because the Premier Service payments go 100% to Disney, whereas they get only a fraction of the ancillary revenues via licensing and post-theatrical distribution.

Great analysis, but ummm...

A) Disney is only getting max about 60% of first week theater gross not 70%.  

B) Cannibalizing future ancillary like, oh I don't know? Future home video and PPV transactions.  Yes, obviously. 

C) Disney+ is not only available in North America, those numbers are hitting their international bottom line as well.

D) It wouldn't be hard for Disney to move some money around on paper to inflate their numbers for this movie.   It is very obvious why they chose to advertise the alleged figures from streaming for "this" movie, and no other.  

And it Wouldn't be the first time a studio fudged its numbers on a film.  

-J.

[Bosco685]

8 minutes ago, D84 said:

The movie reminds me of Fast 9. It makes no sense, but family.

[Gatsby77]

1 hour ago, drotto said:

A) Yes, 80 million is good for 2020 and 2021, but it is the media trying to paint a pretty picture. At this point in the US most theaters are open, and the majority are at full capacity. There was little physical obstacles stopping people from going. Yes, we have lost a lot of screens, but there is very little competition so BW was able to get good screen counts. If this was 2019, we would be calling this a flop by MCU standards. In today's reality it is very hard to judge, especially when that reality is still changing.  It is hard to compair how one movie did vs another when public sentiment on Covid by people and governments change almost daily.

The question now becomes, is this the new normal for movies in theaters?  What is success post Covid? Is this the best we can expect going forward, or are we still on the upswing?  Has the theater landscape changed forever Is? Is this just the performance of a mediocre movie and the fundamental landscape has not changed? Fact is we just do not know. But if $80 is a good number now, the money side of movies is going to have massive implications for the industry.

B) We do not know what $60 million means for streaming. How does this translate to sales going forward? We do know when you buy BW you have the movie till it is removed from Premier.  That means you get no further money for repeat viewings. Also, how front loaded will this type of purchase be? 

 

Theaters always imposed a level of supply and demand on new films.  You only have so many seats, especially at prime times. Streaming essentially removes the supply issue. So what percentage of people likely to buy BW for 2 months have already done so. Remember, everyone can get into that theater. My gut is it will have a much larger drop off then 2nd week box office typically in Theaters has. I would not be surprised if 75% to 80% of digital sales have occurred already.  Remember, if you are not hyped to see this, it is free in 3 months.

 

You also have the added complication that for $30, how many people will be able to watch that purchase? Between people having friends over, and account sharing, it is almost impossible to know how many viewers there have been. Those unknown viewers are all lost ticket sales.

Well said.

Esp. not knowing what $60M knows for streaming, and what the "new normal" is for theater sales.

But consider the alternative - the same movie that only appears on streaming - like Amazon's spending (reportedly) ~$155 million on The Tomorrow War.

There are ways to limit availability as well, such as HBO Max's model - For example, I missed the window to watch In the Heights for "free" via HBO Max because it's already left the platform (for now), as Wonder Woman 2 similarly left the platform after a few weeks as well.

Disney could easily announce that Black Widow won't be available for free via Disney+ until 2023.

And whatever you think of Black Widow's opening weekend box office, this is just a trial run for the truly expensive movies coming down the pike - Bond, Dune and Top Gun: Maverick. Those will be the true litmus tests of the theatrical "new normal."

[AJLewandoski]

I saw it Saturday and I'd say I enjoyed it. My only complaint was there wasn't quite enough Taskmaster. I could've taken a couple more minutes in the final act for the fight with Red Guardian and that probably would've settled most of my qualms with the film. Taskmaster wasn't a compelling villain, but I didn't really need him to be. I thought Natasha and Yelenas backstories were fleshed out well and the secondary characters and action were quite enjoyable probably 7.5-8/10

[Gatsby77]

5 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Disney is only getting max about 60% of first week theater gross not 70%.  

Proof or source for this?

65% was the standard as of the business school case study I read 10 years ago (specifically, 65% gross for the first two weeks, 33% for weeks 3 to end-of-run - which averaged out to a 50% overall take of domestic box office for the studios).

But

1) The landscape's changed since then; and

2) Disney, specifically, has been known to play hardball with theaters, as they did for The Last Jedi, per the WSJ, purportedly demanding 65% of the *overall* domestic box office, not just the first two weeks. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-lays-down-the-law-for-theaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603

So again, source for your "60% first-week theater gross?"

[devilsrain]

Saw it last night and was pleasantly surprised.  Mostly because I had zero expectations due to all the bashing (that includes Scarletts) and the fact that I never cared about the Taskmaster character.  
 

Could it have been better? Sure, but there was a ton of action and some great chemistry between the actors.  Also I was in the IPIC theater so it might’ve helped that I had a few drinks.  
 

 

[Jaydogrules]

16 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

Proof or source for this?

65% was the standard as of the business school case study I read 10 years ago (specifically, 65% gross for the first two weeks, 33% for weeks 3 to end-of-run - which averaged out to a 50% overall take of domestic box office for the studios).

But

1) The landscape's changed since then; and

2) Disney, specifically, has been known to play hardball with theaters, as they did for The Last Jedi, per the WSJ, purportedly demanding 65% of the *overall* domestic box office, not just the first two weeks. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-lays-down-the-law-for-theaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603

So again, source for your "60% first-week theater gross?"

I agree that studios "can" negotiate a higher take on super high profile releases.  

Though I doubt that here, especially with so many distributors hanging on for dear life, or just barely opening up to full capacity again. 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/093015/how-exactly-do-movies-make-money.asp

-J.

[sd2416]

11 hours ago, Xenosmilus said:

Was Olga Kurylenko (Taskmaster) head super imposed on a dudes body?  I heard that on a couple of podcasts but wasn't sure if true. If so then she really wasn't the actor/actress playing taskmaster i.e. doing all the action scenes? If true who was?

ESQUIRE: Before we get to the serious stuff, I'm curious: How heavy was Taskmaster's suit?

OK: It was very heavy. And do you know what? There's so many layers to get dressed. It would literally take 30 minutes. Obviously, underneath the [suit] is bulky and they always acted like I'm wearing those muscles. That's one layer. Then on top is all this costume. Not only was it heavy—you feel so hot in it and we're filming in summer. Oh my God. I'd literally be swimming underneath. I would take it off and there'll be water on my body. So yeah, it was heavy but cool. It's really cool.

https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a36982102/olga-kurylenko-taskmaster-black-widow-interview/

[@therealsilvermane]

5 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

So...spoilers, obvs. but this was brilliant.

 

I enjoy the Screen Rant Pitch Meetings, but to counter its lead-off, the reason a Black Widow movie wasn't made earlier is the same reason a Hawkeye movie was never made. Natasha and Barton didn't warrant a solo movie. They were non-powered SHIELD Agents and more supporting Avengers members. There was the risk of non-interest in a MCU movie(in the formative years) that would essentially be a spy-political thriller movie of which Captain America Winter Soldier and Civil War already handled well for the MCU. And in those formative years when the MCU was still getting its footing, would people have lined up to see a Black Widow or Hawkeye movie? I doubt it. It would have at the least been a risky business move.

[Gatsby77]

17 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

I enjoy the Screen Rant Pitch Meetings, but to counter its lead-off, the reason a Black Widow movie wasn't made earlier is the same reason a Hawkeye movie was never made. Natasha and Barton didn't warrant a solo movie. They were non-powered SHIELD Agents and more supporting Avengers members. There was the risk of non-interest in a MCU movie(in the formative years) that would essentially be a spy-political thriller movie of which Captain America Winter Soldier and Civil War already handled well for the MCU. And in those formative years when the MCU was still getting its footing, would people have lined up to see a Black Widow or Hawkeye movie? I doubt it. It would have at the least been a risky business move.

No.

Releasing a Black Widow or Hawkeye movie earlier was no more risky than releasing an Ant-Man movie, let alone a Guardians of the Galaxy movie, when they did. Less risky, in fact, given the profiles of the respective actors involved.

[@therealsilvermane]

After seeing Black Widow twice, at the movies in 3D and on Disney+, I give it a 7.75 or Very Fine on my personal tastemeter.

I thought it was a good, not great, movie with great character moments that explored emotionsand dynamics that we hadn't seen in a Marvel Studios movie yet. Yelena Belova, the emotional anchor of the movie,  is who ties this "family" together as she is the one character who is willing to wear her emotions on her sleeve, unlike Natasha, Melina, or Alexei. Her emotional outbursts at her past "family" who seemed to disregard childhood memories that were precious to her really lifted this movie over being just a normal superhero action movie. And throughout, our four somewhat pitiful characters' attempts to hold on to any bit of happiness in a lifetime of tragedy and their stated past regrets were the most important part of the movie IMO. In fact, I'd say the main mission to bring down the Red Room was, to me, more of a McGuffin meant to bring this dysfunctional family back together again and hash it out. I really appreciated scenes like the dinner table at Melina's farm or the bedroom scene with Alexei and Yelena. These scenes of actual real time "family" interaction explored the family dynamic in a way that WandaVision, which took place in a magical TV Land of Wanda's creation, couldn't.

For me, Black Widow is the MCU's first real movie about family. As I said, WandaVision's family environment was too much a controlled environment for it to feel "real". And Guardians of the Galaxy was more about the bonds of friendship than family, other than the Gamora-Nebula hatership.

What kept the movie from being a higher grade for me was some of the movie's logic issues which I'll post separate.

But yes, I enjoyed this movie, moreso for the character moments than the movie's action story which was okay but could have used a little more emotional stakes to make it more compelling.