BLACK WIDOW: THE MOVIE (TBD) 4 4

[drotto]

1 minute ago, Bosco685 said:

So Friday was half of the gross for the weekend? Wow!

 

Yeah, that is amazingly front loaded.  This may mean even a lower gross overall.  Everyone desperate to see it went Thursday night or Friday. I may anger some people here, but predicting a hard 65% to maybe 70% drop off next weekend.  I think the streaming same day is going to kill the box office, and maybe theaters in the long run.  Those marginally excited will just see at it at home, no need to wait or go to a theater. Those waiting for word of mouth, will just skip theaters all together and see it at home, and may even skip the premium charge and wait 1or 2 months when it drops on standard streaming. 

 

Global is still massively impacted by COVID restrictions.

[Bosco685]

11 minutes ago, drotto said:

Yeah, that is amazingly front loaded.  This may mean even a lower gross overall.  Everyone desperate to see it went Thursday night or Friday. I may anger some people here, but predicting a hard 65% to maybe 70% drop off next weekend.  I think the streaming same day is going to kill the box office, and maybe theaters in the long run.  Those marginally excited will just see at it at home, no need to wait or go to a theater. Those waiting for word of mouth, will just skip theaters all together and see it at home, and may even skip the premium charge and wait 1or 2 months when it drops on standard streaming. 

 

Global is still massively impacted by COVID restrictions.

This goes to prove how the rating systems favor Disney

Either the interviews of CinemaScore were vectored in on the most hardcore audiences, or they just don't care to disrupt The Mouse.

[drotto]

9 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

This goes to prove how the rating systems favor Disney

Either the interviews of CinemaScore were vectored in on the most hardcore audiences, or they just don't care to disrupt The Mouse.

But given Disney bias, this is a low score.  I also wonder if CinemaScore will also favor higher scores based on audience bias, because only big movie fans (or MCU fans) are going to the theaters at this point.  I do not see casual movie fans venturing out at this point, only the diehards. Why pay theater prices when you can just stream it, or wait 1 month and see it for "free".

Edited July 11, 2021 by drotto

[Bosco685]

11 minutes ago, drotto said:

But given Disney bias, this is a low score.  I also wonder if CinemaScore will also favor higher scores based on audience bias, because only big movie fans (or MCU fans) are going to the theaters at this point.  I do not see casual movie fans venturing out at this point, only the diehards. Why pay theater prices when you can just stream it, or wait 1 months and see it for "free".

A-/A are the common ratings for MCU films with a rare B+ and then a few A+ candidates.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Bosco685

[Gatsby77]

25 minutes ago, drotto said:

Yeah, that is amazingly front loaded.  This may mean even a lower gross overall.  Everyone desperate to see it went Thursday night or Friday. I may anger some people here, but predicting a hard 65% to maybe 70% drop off next weekend.  I think the streaming same day is going to kill the box office, and maybe theaters in the long run.  Those marginally excited will just see at it at home, no need to wait or go to a theater. Those waiting for word of mouth, will just skip theaters all together and see it at home, and may even skip the premium charge and wait 1or 2 months when it drops on standard streaming. 

 

Global is still massively impacted by COVID restrictions.

So...$80M opening weekend vs. Wonder Woman's $103 million opening weekend, what - 4 years ago?

But easily the biggest opening weekend in 2020 or 2021 (so far).

As Mashable pointed out, the $60 million from Disney+ subscribers who paid $30 per is probably far more valuable to them than the $80M domestic theatrical. And represents probably just 1.5-2% of Disney+'s total subscriber base.

 

[Bosco685]

 

[drotto]

17 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

A-/A are the common ratings for MCU films with a rare B+ and then a few A+ candidates.

This just proves how flawed the system is. Thor worse than Thor: Dark World? IW the same as AoU? All the Ironmans the same?

[Bosco685]

Just now, drotto said:

This just proves how flawed the system is. Thor worse than Thor: Dark World? IW the same as AoU? All the Ironmans the same?

[musicmeta]

12 minutes ago, drotto said:

This just proves how flawed the system is. Thor worse than Thor: Dark World? IW the same as AoU? All the Ironmans the same?

I didn't like Iron Man #2 all that much.  The first Iron Man was the best! #3 was ok. 

[drotto]

35 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

So...$80M opening weekend vs. Wonder Woman's $103 million opening weekend, what - 4 years ago?

But easily the biggest opening weekend in 2020 or 2021 (so far).

As Mashable pointed out, the $60 million from Disney+ subscribers who paid $30 per is probably far more valuable to them than the $80M domestic theatrical. And represents probably just 1.5-2% of Disney+'s total subscriber base.

 

But if you take the Disney + out of the equation we are left with about $160 million WW for theater box office, and $80 million domestic. Given the reduced release to streaming (same day release) and likelihood this will be "free" streaming in under 2 months, the older predictive models for figuring out total BO are likely borderline useless.  But looking back it seems for most MCU movies around 35% to 40% of their total box office is made opening weekend. Using the 40% number that gives us a Domestic total of around $200 million for BW. If you want more of a range lets use 35% to 45%. So the domestic total will lie between $230 to $180 million total.  Now this is based of pre-COVID MCU estimates.  Not sure how they will apply today.

 

Will that save movies?  Will BW be considered a success? 

[Gatsby77]

18 minutes ago, drotto said:

But if you take the Disney + out of the equation we are left with about $160 million WW for theater box office, and $80 million domestic. Given the reduced release to streaming (same day release) and likelihood this will be "free" streaming in under 2 months, the older predictive models for figuring out total BO are likely borderline useless.  But looking back it seems for most MCU movies around 35% to 40% of their total box office is made opening weekend. Using the 40% number that gives us a Domestic total of around $200 million for BW. If you want more of a range lets use 35% to 45%. So the domestic total will lie between $230 to $180 million total.  Now this is based of pre-COVID MCU estimates.  Not sure how they will apply today.

 

Will that save movies?  Will BW be considered a success? 

I think Black Widow will be a success even if it only grosses $160M domestic - because that puts it solidly in the running for top grosser of 2021 (so far) and the additional international and Disney+ Premiere money will put it over the top.

Will it save movies? No.

I'm still hesitant to go back to theaters and (for instance) am in no hurry to see Black Widow. I'm sure many others feel the same way. We're living in a new era (at least for now) where the combination of day-and-date streaming and a large percentage of would-be movie-goers having 65-inch (or larger) TVs makes comparisons to the pre-Covid era difficult.

The movies I plan to see in the theater this year are limited to just:

1) The Suicide Squad

2) No Time to Die

3) Dune

4) Top Gun: Maverick

I also think all of these will out-gross Black Widow. Riskiest one from the list above is likely Dune (as in, it has the greatest potential to bomb - relative to both its budget and expectations).

 

[Jaydogrules]

1 hour ago, Gatsby77 said:

So...$80M opening weekend vs. Wonder Woman's $103 million opening weekend, what - 4 years ago?

But easily the biggest opening weekend in 2020 or 2021 (so far).

As Mashable pointed out, the $60 million from Disney+ subscribers who paid $30 per is probably far more valuable to them than the $80M domestic theatrical. And represents probably just 1.5-2% of Disney+'s total subscriber base.

 

Assuming what they are reporting is even true, A) it is not counted toward the official BO anywhere, despite the fact that many media outlets seem desperate to do it that way on this, and B) This most likely is cutting into their ancillary revenues by an equal amount.  

-J.

[path4play]

Kind of a "We're the Millers" combined with "Star Wars."  I liked it.

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by path4play

[paperheart]

3 hours ago, drotto said:

But if you take the Disney + out of the equation we are left with about $160 million WW for theater box office, and $80 million domestic. Given the reduced release to streaming (same day release) and likelihood this will be "free" streaming in under 2 months, the older predictive models for figuring out total BO are likely borderline useless.  But looking back it seems for most MCU movies around 35% to 40% of their total box office is made opening weekend. Using the 40% number that gives us a Domestic total of around $200 million for BW. If you want more of a range lets use 35% to 45%. So the domestic total will lie between $230 to $180 million total.  Now this is based of pre-COVID MCU estimates.  Not sure how they will apply today.

 

Will that save movies?  Will BW be considered a success? 

agree, the over/under is $200MM US.

[drotto]

Do we have production budget estimates for this movie?  I know solo MCU films have usually been around $175 million and then more for marketing. I suspect marketing has been more then typical for BW give the ever moving release date, but somehow the final marketing push seemed anemic.

[paperheart]

BW's underwhelming BO taking down her stablemates 'stocks'

Black Widow (BWDOW)

H$172.81 H$15.67 (8.31%)

Change Today Current Value

Eternals (ETRNL)

H$172.63 H$11.90 (6.45%)

Change Today Current Value

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the (SHCHI)

H$166.29 H$6.96 (4.02%)

Change Today Current Value

 

 

[Xenosmilus]

Was Olga Kurylenko (Taskmaster) head super imposed on a dudes body?  I heard that on a couple of podcasts but wasn't sure if true. If so then she really wasn't the actor/actress playing taskmaster i.e. doing all the action scenes? If true who was?

[NewWorldOrder]

On 7/10/2021 at 5:29 PM, Drummy said:

Just saw it -- would give it a B.  Enjoyed Yelena and the Red Guardian quite a bit, but a lot of it felt paint-by-numbers and therefore a faded facsimile of other MCU moments. 

Not in the top half of MCU movies, though.  Worth watching?  Yes.

Honestly I just saw Black Widow and I totally agree.  I went in with low expectations and while it wasn't perfect it was much better than I thought.  

For me the MCU really doesn't get rolling again till Doctor Strange 2!

MCU will re-gain steam again once they introduce FF and X-men, IMO till then its mostly filler.

(However LOKI has been really good!)

Edited July 12, 2021 by NewWorldOrder

[Larryw7]

3 hours ago, paperheart said:

BW's underwhelming BO taking down her stablemates 'stocks'

Black Widow (BWDOW)

H$172.81 H$15.67 (8.31%)

Change Today Current Value

Eternals (ETRNL)

H$172.63 H$11.90 (6.45%)

Change Today Current Value

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the (SHCHI)

H$166.29 H$6.96 (4.02%)

Change Today Current Value

 

 

Based on what I've seen and heard, The Eternals looks like a bomb.

[Jaydogrules]

1 hour ago, Larryw7 said:

Based on what I've seen and heard, The Eternals looks like a bomb.

Don't worry, I'm sure Disney will announce that it made $200MM+ in streaming to offset the poor box office.  

-J.