Crazy Run up on price than crash and burn. And I mean BURN! 3 3

[VintageComics]

And again, what killed the Marvel #1 market for a long time was the same books (including the Pay copy) coming back to market every few months like a hot potato.

[VintageComics]

7 hours ago, spreads said:

You know what's even more starting and dramatically overlooked in those time periods - June 2009 was just a few months when the equity markets and the credit markets were in TOTAL DISTRESS.  I mean, to take 30K and put it in a comic book, instead of any STOCK (or real-estate in most markets) is even more starting.  It would be considerably different if someone bought a book in 2006 and 2007 and sold in 2009, but to buy right after the global meltdown and then sell for a huge loss after a 10 year period - where EVERY ASSET CLASS had a huge run-up - is even more ridiculous.

I've written this numerous times, and I agree that the financial markets had a lot to do with it.

A few big names needed to cash out (Keller was already mentioned) due to financial distress.

One large collector started selling his high grade undercopies (not out of financial distress but simply to unload books that were no longer needed) which alone was responsible for flooding the market with tons of high grade books.

There were also SEVERAL Pedigree finds within the same time period. I think there were 3.

It was also the public exposure to pressing that changed the markets. Decrease in confidence reducing bidder interest.

2008-2009 was really a perfect storm for depressed prices and something similar hasn't happened since or before to my knowledge.

 

[James J Johnson]

1 minute ago, VintageComics said:

And again, what killed the Marvel #1 market for a long time was the same books (including the Pay copy) coming back to market every few months like a hot potato.

Not to mention Heritage running many multiple copies of Marvel 1 at the same time, auction after auction on a regular basis. When one auction catalog has 5 different copies of the same "rare" Golden age DC or Timely issue, and then the next one has the same, and on, and on, it doesn't instill a sense of these things being rare. Just expensive. And restless, when the same copies auction every 3 to 6 months.

[FlyingDonut]

56 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

No. 

Those three sales all occurred when the census was still sparse. 

You can follow the trail right on down after that $25,000 sale.

These books have all, with very few exceptions, followed the exact same model: low census population, followed by increasing pressure on the market, followed by a burst of new examples to the market, followed by a leveling off to reflect the actual real scarcity of each book in each grade. 

In the case of GL #76, the census went from a single copy in 9.6 in 2009 to SIXTEEN copies in 9.6 by 2013, a mere four years later. There have, since then, only been 3 more copies added to the census, about 1 a year, until we arrive at the total of 19 as it stands today. Is the census going to explode again like it did from 2009 to 2013? Probably not. You might see doubling over time, but I can say, with complete assurance, that you'll never see the census go up 16-fold for that book in that grade ever again.

Same with Harby #1. A 9.8 sells for $2500, and all of sudden, everyone loses their minds. The census explodes. Prices level off. And, finally, the census levels off to a slow, steady trickle. 280 9.8s of all flavors, with pockets coming in here and there, but no doubling over and over, like we saw from 2009 to 2013. 

Same with ASM #301. Four years ago, on this very board, a certain member insisted that ASM #301 was "not rare in any grade, even 9.8!"...at that time, there were something in the neighborhood of 80 copies in 9.8, in all flavors. Now, four years later? There are 124. About a 52% increase in four years, despite massive market pressure to "make more." That's compared to a total of 1,006 9.8 #300s, 647 #299s, and 609 #298s. Oddly enough, #302 is still "rare on the census" at 101 total 9.8s, but I suspect that's because the book is still in its "hasn't really caught everyone's attention yet" stage, unlike #301.

Clearly, the vast majority of these books has had their "come to the census" moments in the last 10 years. You're not going to see the same explosive growth for these books anywhere near the scale that you already have...and that's true, whether it's a Daredevil #168, a GI Joe #21, a Secret Wars #8, or a New Mutants #98.

Comic books simply are not rare, even in ultra high grade, past about 1964.

Find me a 9.8/white Fantastic Four 147 and 179. I'll pay you double GPA.

[RockMyAmadeus]

22 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

Find me a 9.8/white Fantastic Four 147 and 179. I'll pay you double GPA.

Record a $600, $700, or $800 sale on GPA, and you'll have your pick of graded copies to choose from.

There needs to be incentive. 

They're out there...they just need to be found.

 

[porcupine48]

Oh,this thread 

[James J Johnson]

28 minutes ago, porcupine48 said:

Oh,this thread 

It's got that wonderfully desirable, perfect blend of substance and shmubstance, dare I declare. And now, you too can't escape going down in history as CGC forum royalty, merely for being a part of it. 

Edited June 16, 2018 by James J Johnson

[Gatsby77]

7 hours ago, VintageComics said:

I've written this numerous times, and I agree that the financial markets had a lot to do with it.

A few big names needed to cash out (Keller was already mentioned) due to financial distress.

One large collector started selling his high grade undercopies (not out of financial distress but simply to unload books that were no longer needed) which alone was responsible for flooding the market with tons of high grade books.

There were also SEVERAL Pedigree finds within the same time period. I think there were 3.

It was also the public exposure to pressing that changed the markets. Decrease in confidence reducing bidder interest.

2008-2009 was really a perfect storm for depressed prices and something similar hasn't happened since or before to my knowledge.

 

?

You're right -- but Spreads was talking about the opposite.

-- Not a distressed comic book seller, but the sheer stupidity of a buyer paying more than $30,000 for a 9.6 copy of Green Lantern 76 just a few months after the stock market crash -- when nearly all equities were still available for rock-bottom prices.

[spreads]

12 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

But that number wasn't real. Yes, $30k exchanged hands, sure, but that book was never really that valuable, ever.

The reason it sold for that much is because of the massive buildup, on this board and elsewhere, of this book being the only, or one of the only, bronze age keys to not have a 9.8 on the census, and the repeated suggestions, and outright claims, that there never would be. And when that book sold, there was only a single 9.6 on the census....that one....and had been the only 9.6 for around 5 years already.

Just like all the rest of the "not at all rare, but not (yet) represented on the census" books of 2005-2010, the price it sold for was entirely artificial.

If the buyer and other bidders had only waited, they would have paid a lot less.

BUT....I will grant you that the price of that sale did, in turn, inspire people to turn their books in to cash out, and now there are 2 9.8s and 19 9.6s....a number that would probably be a little smaller had that $30k sale not taken place. But the next sale, for 25% less, of NEW 9.6 showed how artificial that $30k number really was.

The exact same thing happened in coins (though it happened a lot faster), and, I suspect, other graded collectible markets.

Okay, maybe the amounts were off but a bit but the main takeaway is the period of time and what was going-on during the world economy at that time.  When trillions of dollars are flowing into other asset classes while some comics are crumbling in price, I don't think anything further needs to be said about why you shouldn't 'invest' in comics. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

11 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Like your excursion into crypto currency, you only find it exciting because there is money to be made.

But to longtime hobbyists, the volatility and flakiness of speculators (what's 'awesome' one day is not awesome the next) is indeed pretty sad.

Where would the hobby be if we didn't have movies? Probably moving along at a slower pace, with less volatility, but steadily forward as it has been for 70 years. 

Wrong, I find it exciting because to me just like most of mainstream these comic book movies are pretty good, and in fact usually better than the comic books they came from.

The Bale/Nolan Batman Trilogy is the best version of Batman I ever encountered.

Same can be said for the Superman Christopher Reeve.

It goes on.

To me the best versions of the Black Panther and Guardians of the Galaxy are the movie versions and not the comics.

The best version of Tony Stark is played by Robert Downey Jr.

Heck, even the two best Deadpool stories I have come across are the DEADPOOL and DEADPOOL 2  movies. They were better than any Deadpool comic book I ever read.

These movie versions have a lot to do with these characters big time popularity way more than their comics now.

These movies are keeping these comic heroes in the public eye and relevant in a positive way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2018 by ComicConnoisseur

[spreads]

2 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

?

You're right -- but Spreads was talking about the opposite.

-- Not a distressed comic book seller, but the sheer stupidity of a buyer paying more than $30,000 for a 9.6 copy of Green Lantern 76 just a few months after the stock market crash -- when nearly all equities were still available for rock-bottom prices.

Well, I think  I touched-upon (and have been pretty vocal about this in other threads) how the macro-economy influences the collectible hobby as an industry.  I don't know how we could measure the aggregate money coming into the comic hobby/industry, but I'm sure it would be a drop in the bucket to the trillions of dollars flowing into traditional financial asset classes. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

10 hours ago, spreads said:

Well, I think  I touched-upon (and have been pretty vocal about this in other threads) how the macro-economy influences the collectible hobby as an industry.  I don't know how we could measure the aggregate money coming into the comic hobby/industry, but I'm sure it would be a drop in the bucket to the trillions of dollars flowing into traditional financial asset classes. 

I have been using a software program on Ebay called terrapeak. This tells what to sell, what is hot, what is cold, etc... 

According to them comic books are the hottest collectible in the land(most collectibles btw are dead according to terrapeak like 90 percent).

Well, anyways even though comic books are number one in the collectibles field. It doesn't even make a dent in Ebay's overall top selling categories.

For an example the iPhone cases market makes the comic book market look like an ant.

I imagine this is the same scenario with comic books compared to traditional financial asset classes as well.

 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2018 by ComicConnoisseur

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, spreads said:

Okay, maybe the amounts were off but a bit but the main takeaway is the period of time and what was going-on during the world economy at that time.  When trillions of dollars are flowing into other asset classes while some comics are crumbling in price, I don't think anything further needs to be said about why you shouldn't 'invest' in comics. 

Absolutely! But the serious declines in the "value" of books that were sparsely represented in the census had little to do with the world economy at the time (obviously not nothing, since nothing occurs in a vacuum except dust bunnies), but were the result of the realities of the census. Was Daredevil #168 ever worth $3,000? How about X-Men #120? Was Avengers #4 worth $70k in 9.6? Or Hulk #181 at $26k in 2009? Or X-Men #94 at nearly $30k? Was Batman #428 worth $1,000? Or Mad #1 at $24k for 9.6, or $32k for 9.8?

These prices, and thousands like them, were functions of artificial scarcity, the perception of people who didn't pay attention to the lessons of history, and were afraid that if they didn't pay for what they wanted now, they wouldn't get another chance...or, simply people with money to burn, and they didn't care what it cost to obtain, competing against people who were afraid that they wouldn't get another chance.

Some comics, very few, like Hulk #181 and ASM #301, have now come up and met their previous artificial census-driven highs, and have, indeed, established new, genuine highs.

Most, however, will likely never see those highs again, without serious adjusting for inflation. The person who paid $29,500 in 2010 for a 9.8 X-Men #94? Probably not going to see a return on that in this lifetime, sad to say. 

It's just important to remember, when looking at those prices from 2002-2010, that they weren't real, that they didn't reflect a real understanding of supply, so it knocked the demand all out of whack. Yes, they were real sales, and real money exchanged hands...but the prices, themselves, were artificial, functions of the census, not a reflection of actual demand meeting actual supply.

Obviously, this does not apply to most of Golden Age, which operates in an entirely different sphere, because that Mile High 9.8 Tec #114 (  ) is, I can very confidently predict, NEVER going to be joined by any other 9.8s....not in this universe. And the same generally holds true for anything printed in 1963 and prior, with some exceptions (Gaines file copies, for example, or some Disney books.)

But if you're looking at 1965 and beyond, there's essentially nothing that is genuinely scarce, even in ultra high grade, with some obvious exceptions (mostly independents), and the census, over time, proved that. After all...there are 36 9.8 Iron Man #1s, and TWO 9.9s!

 

[FSF]

3 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Absolutely! But the serious declines in the "value" of books that were sparsely represented in the census had little to do with the world economy at the time (obviously not nothing, since nothing occurs in a vacuum except dust bunnies), but were the result of the realities of the census. Was Daredevil #168 ever worth $3,000? How about X-Men #120? Was Avengers #4 worth $70k in 9.6? Or Hulk #181 at $26k in 2009? Or X-Men #94 at nearly $30k? Was Batman #428 worth $1,000? Or Mad #1 at $24k for 9.6, or $32k for 9.8?

These prices, and thousands like them, were functions of artificial scarcity, the perception of people who didn't pay attention to the lessons of history, and were afraid that if they didn't pay for what they wanted now, they wouldn't get another chance...or, simply people with money to burn, and they didn't care what it cost to obtain, competing against people who were afraid that they wouldn't get another chance.

Some comics, very few, like Hulk #181 and ASM #301, have now come up and met their previous artificial census-driven highs, and have, indeed, established new, genuine highs.

Most, however, will likely never see those highs again, without serious adjusting for inflation. The person who paid $29,500 in 2010 for a 9.8 X-Men #94? Probably not going to see a return on that in this lifetime, sad to say. 

It's just important to remember, when looking at those prices from 2002-2010, that they weren't real, that they didn't reflect a real understanding of supply, so it knocked the demand all out of whack. Yes, they were real sales, and real money exchanged hands...but the prices, themselves, were artificial, functions of the census, not a reflection of actual demand meeting actual supply.

Obviously, this does not apply to most of Golden Age, which operates in an entirely different sphere, because that Mile High 9.8 Tec #114 (  ) is, I can very confidently predict, NEVER going to be joined by any other 9.8s....not in this universe. And the same generally holds true for anything printed in 1963 and prior, with some exceptions (Gaines file copies, for example, or some Disney books.)

But if you're looking at 1965 and beyond, there's essentially nothing that is genuinely scarce, even in ultra high grade, with some obvious exceptions (mostly independents), and the census, over time, proved that. After all...there are 36 9.8 Iron Man #1s, and TWO 9.9s!

 

I would echo every bit of that.  I was only casually watching comics from afar during those years, but even then I knew that was the case.  The EXACT same thing happened with sports cards and coins, prior to comics.  Where thousands of different issues appeared "scarce" or "rare" but it was merely a function of the SUBSTANTIAL amount of all of the raw material that had yet to be graded.  Once you saw a good portion of the raw population being graded, it was obvious that there was no where near enough demand at the lofty levels (once the supply was evident). 

 

 

[VintageComics]

16 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

Find me a 9.8/white Fantastic Four 147 and 179. I'll pay you double GPA. 

You still haven't finished that run?

[VintageComics]

6 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

18 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Like your excursion into crypto currency, you only find it exciting because there is money to be made.

But to longtime hobbyists, the volatility and flakiness of speculators (what's 'awesome' one day is not awesome the next) is indeed pretty sad.

Where would the hobby be if we didn't have movies? Probably moving along at a slower pace, with less volatility, but steadily forward as it has been for 70 years. 

Wrong, I find it exciting because to me just like most of mainstream these comic book movies are pretty good, and in fact usually better than the comic books they came from.

The Bale/Nolan Batman Trilogy is the best version of Batman I ever encountered.

Same can be said for the Superman Christopher Reeve.

It goes on.

To me the best versions of the Black Panther and Guardians of the Galaxy are the movie versions and not the comics.

The best version of Tony Stark is played by Robert Downey Jr.

Heck, even the two best Deadpool stories I have come across are the DEADPOOL and DEADPOOL 2  movies. They were better than any Deadpool comic book I ever read.

These movie versions have a lot to do with these characters big time popularity way more than their comics now.

These movies are keeping these comic heroes in the public eye and relevant in a positive way.

I would agree with reader interest being increased but I am talking about the speculator's market, which really has nothing to do with reading.

[VintageComics]

10 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

?

You're right -- but Spreads was talking about the opposite.

-- Not a distressed comic book seller, but the sheer stupidity of a buyer paying more than $30,000 for a 9.6 copy of Green Lantern 76 just a few months after the stock market crash -- when nearly all equities were still available for rock-bottom prices.

You're right.

I was simply focusing on the collapse of the world economy in 2007.

After the depression of 2008-2009 (roughly), there was a boom but just as in all other markets, the asset bubble became very narrow in focus.

The markets became heavily focused on blue chip picks (keys) and those assets skyrocketed (like real estate, precious metals and certain stocks)

 

[Badger]

On 5/25/2018 at 9:03 PM, Duffman_Comics said:

Your experience mirrored in the Don Rosa cover for "Collector's Dream", March 1978

It's hard to see in the scan, but the kid on the left is holding a "Howard the Duck" #1 with a $20.00 price tag:

I remember looking at an Overstreet around 1977 or 1978 and there was a dealer article in it which compared the prices of Howard the Duck #1, Amazing Spider-Man #1, and Conan #1.  The guys conclusion was that Howard the Duck #1 was THE book to own if you were a serious investor.  It would soon be worth more than ASM #1 and would skyrocket because the writing and art was just that GOOD!  He compared it to Windsor-Smith in Conan.  Windsor-Smith to Howard the Duck. The Hype for Howard was unbelievable even to a wee Cub Scout.

I was ~11 years old and walked away from Overstreet for 3 years because of that article.

[FlyingDonut]

7 hours ago, VintageComics said:

You still haven't finished that run?

Down to 11. There are a couple that are going to be really hard to get. 147, 179, and 184 are notoriously tough to find in 9.8 at all, and since I'm only getting white paged books, my universe is even smaller. I am down to just two to complete the Byrne run (232-292, annuals 17 and 18) - when/if I get them I will have the highest ranking CGC set, since two of mine are signature series books and no one with a full set has any 9.9s or 10.0s at this point.

I am stupid.