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Which market will crash first? housing market or the comic market?

Started by eddly,

313 posts in this topic

The Less Blob

The Less Blob

Posted
Posted

I was reading an article in the New York Times today and it sure as heck seems like the U.K. has followed the U.S. model of borrowing way too much money and speculating on inflated real estate. In fact, personal debt ratios are even worse in the U.K. than in the U.S. Actually, I remember reading that when I was in the U.K. in 2006, so it's nothing new. Dunno about public debt though.

 

Sadly, I suspect the U.K. is probably 9-12 months behind the U.S. on this one and then the sh*t will hit the fan.

 

You should probably be buying a lot of comics now with your valuable pounds before they devalue!

 

I guess the saving grace is that it takes a lot fewer wealthy middle easterners, asians and russians buying stuff in the U.K. to prop up the ecomony than it does in the U.S., not to mention spending a lot less on endevours in Iraq.

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TupennyConan

TupennyConan

Posted
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The truth is that the US has been a public debtor nation from the start. Well, so what?

 

We borrow to fight wars the rest of the world wants us to fight, lends us $$ to fight, and is too fearful to fight themselves due to public opinion at home or because they don't have the military or balls we do.

 

China will never call in her debt. Won't ever happen. Never.

 

Face it, our soldiers are on the world's payroll.

 

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squidmo2000

squidmo2000

Posted
Posted
The truth is that the US has been a public debtor nation from the start. Well, so what?

 

We borrow to fight wars the rest of the world wants us to fight, lends us $$ to fight, and is too fearful to fight themselves due to public opinion at home or because they don't have the military or balls we do.

 

China will never call in her debt. Won't ever happen. Never.

 

Face it, our soldiers are on the world's payroll.

^^
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JiveTurkeyMoFo

JiveTurkeyMoFo

Posted
Posted
The truth is that the US has been a public debtor nation from the start. Well, so what?

 

We borrow to fight wars the rest of the world wants us to fight, lends us $$ to fight, and is too fearful to fight themselves due to public opinion at home or because they don't have the military or balls we do.

 

China will never call in her debt. Won't ever happen. Never.

 

Face it, our soldiers are on the world's payroll.

 

China never has to call in her debt, we're already in the exact position they want us to be....weak and weakening further.

 

 

 

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The Less Blob

The Less Blob

Posted
Posted

well, that really wasn't the point i was making, just that I think the U.K. has done many of the same things the U.S. did and I assume their ecomony will follow course to a certain extent and the uber strong pound might not be forever. apparently, continental european governments put more restrictions on this kind of runaway consumer debt and people didn't get real estate crazy.

 

most countries carry some debt. it's when both the government and the public are overwhelmed with debt that you really have a double whammy going

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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Posted

 

Wow, that is just awesome that an 18-year old like yourself can both find and interpret statistics like this! You are definitely going places, my friend...some might even say you have a "krazy" talent for it!! :yeahok:

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Peter G

Peter G

Posted
Posted
Really interesting to re-read this thread and see how dramatically the view of the real estate market changed between 2005 and 2007. Wonder if we'll be looking back in 2010 and saying the same things about the comic market. hm

 

Its 2015

 

This thread needs an update

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Mr 9.8

Mr 9.8

Posted
Posted
Really interesting to re-read this thread and see how dramatically the view of the real estate market changed between 2005 and 2007. Wonder if we'll be looking back in 2010 and saying the same things about the comic market. hm

 

Its 2015

 

This thread needs an update

:whee:
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Peter G

Peter G

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Posted

I could not have imagined 5 years ago, the lengths that the central planners would have gone to prop up the U.S. housing market in particular and the overall economy in general.

 

I know of several families that have not paid their mortgage in at least 5 years and the bank is still working with them rather than kick these families out of their homes. Loan modifications and backlog of shadow inventory has certainly helped to stabilize the real estate market - for now. Add to that, there has been massive venture capital that has entered the market and what wit "Black Rock" buying up swaths of properties, the market surely has benefited from all this cheap credit flowing from central banks. I could never have predicted all these foreign cash buyers, especially the Chinese, to have swooped in and bought all these trophy properties at new highs. A lot of the 2007-2009 downturn has now been related back to prior heights or at least close to the prior highs.

 

The comic book market never really suffered much of any downturn from 2008-2015 and in fact seems relentlessly moving upwards again right now. I guess that is what happens when you have a 4.5 Trillion dollar balance sheet of the Fed Reserve and Japan and Europe and now China are printing money with abandon.

 

So the question remains, where will real estate and comic books be in 2020 ?

 

I will guess that real estate will be much lower if the government ever gets out of the way. If the government continues to manipulate the housing market and not allow rates to rise then just maybe - housing has stabilized. But god forbid rates ever rise in this country, the real estate market is toasted in my opinion ! And centrally planning never seems to work out very well, so I expect a crash in real estate . . . one day. Just not sure when.

 

Comic books I think will do much better regardless of rates rising or staying the same, unless there is a SHTF moment in which case the entire global economy will probably go down the drain. That said, I would rather own a Near Mint Action # 1 then a penthouse in NYC under that scenario.

 

The bottom line is that I think it is impossible to predict the future in a policy environment where there is constant intervention by all these governments and central banks. So any speculation on my part, is just that - SPECULATION.

 

 

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bluechip

bluechip

Posted
Posted
I could not have imagined 5 years ago, the lengths that the central planners would have gone to prop up the U.S. housing market in particular and the overall economy in general.

 

I know of several families that have not paid their mortgage in at least 5 years and the bank is still working with them rather than kick these families out of their homes. Loan modifications and backlog of shadow inventory has certainly helped to stabilize the real estate market - for now. Add to that, there has been massive venture capital that has entered the market and what wit "Black Rock" buying up swaths of properties, the market surely has benefited from all this cheap credit flowing from central banks. I could never have predicted all these foreign cash buyers, especially the Chinese, to have swooped in and bought all these trophy properties at new highs. A lot of the 2007-2009 downturn has now been related back to prior heights or at least close to the prior highs.

 

The comic book market never really suffered much of any downturn from 2008-2015 and in fact seems relentlessly moving upwards again right now. I guess that is what happens when you have a 4.5 Trillion dollar balance sheet of the Fed Reserve and Japan and Europe and now China are printing money with abandon.

 

So the question remains, where will real estate and comic books be in 2020 ?

 

I will guess that real estate will be much lower if the government ever gets out of the way. If the government continues to manipulate the housing market and not allow rates to rise then just maybe - housing has stabilized. But god forbid rates ever rise in this country, the real estate market is toasted in my opinion ! And centrally planning never seems to work out very well, so I expect a crash in real estate . . . one day. Just not sure when.

 

Comic books I think will do much better regardless of rates rising or staying the same, unless there is a SHTF moment in which case the entire global economy will probably go down the drain. That said, I would rather own a Near Mint Action # 1 then a penthouse in NYC under that scenario.

 

The bottom line is that I think it is impossible to predict the future in a policy environment where there is constant intervention by all these governments and central banks. So any speculation on my part, is just that - SPECULATION.

 

 

What will; happen if the government "gets out the way" of supporting banks and money managers with near-zero interest and, instead, lends money to homeowners and college students at the same rate?

 

 

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Peter G

Peter G

Posted
Posted
I could not have imagined 5 years ago, the lengths that the central planners would have gone to prop up the U.S. housing market in particular and the overall economy in general.

 

I know of several families that have not paid their mortgage in at least 5 years and the bank is still working with them rather than kick these families out of their homes. Loan modifications and backlog of shadow inventory has certainly helped to stabilize the real estate market - for now. Add to that, there has been massive venture capital that has entered the market and what wit "Black Rock" buying up swaths of properties, the market surely has benefited from all this cheap credit flowing from central banks. I could never have predicted all these foreign cash buyers, especially the Chinese, to have swooped in and bought all these trophy properties at new highs. A lot of the 2007-2009 downturn has now been related back to prior heights or at least close to the prior highs.

 

The comic book market never really suffered much of any downturn from 2008-2015 and in fact seems relentlessly moving upwards again right now. I guess that is what happens when you have a 4.5 Trillion dollar balance sheet of the Fed Reserve and Japan and Europe and now China are printing money with abandon.

 

So the question remains, where will real estate and comic books be in 2020 ?

 

I will guess that real estate will be much lower if the government ever gets out of the way. If the government continues to manipulate the housing market and not allow rates to rise then just maybe - housing has stabilized. But god forbid rates ever rise in this country, the real estate market is toasted in my opinion ! And centrally planning never seems to work out very well, so I expect a crash in real estate . . . one day. Just not sure when.

 

Comic books I think will do much better regardless of rates rising or staying the same, unless there is a SHTF moment in which case the entire global economy will probably go down the drain. That said, I would rather own a Near Mint Action # 1 then a penthouse in NYC under that scenario.

 

The bottom line is that I think it is impossible to predict the future in a policy environment where there is constant intervention by all these governments and central banks. So any speculation on my part, is just that - SPECULATION.

 

 

What will; happen if the government "gets out the way" of supporting banks and money managers with near-zero interest and, instead, lends money to homeowners and college students at the same rate?

 

 

I really don't pretend that I have any real idea. This economy is so badly distorted right now that its truly hard to say what would happen if the government got out of the way. Presumably, prices would go down as markets reset lower.

 

Government shouldn't be picking winners and losers at any interest rate. Certainly handing out more free money to students and potential mortgage borrowers will just lead to even more mal-investment as a consequence from this new fake demand stolen from the future.

 

 

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