Which market will crash first? housing market or the comic market?

[the blob]

Are there any single family detached housing in the NYC ares surrounding Manhattan, and if so, what have their pricing valuations been like?

-------------

 

I live in a single family detached home in Brooklyn. I have about a 35 minute train ride to Wall Street/the courts in Manhattan. I have a yard and a driveway (the lot is only 40 X 100, but some in my area are 60X100 or more). Prices are up about 50% since when I bought at the end of 2006. Prices never really dropped more than 5% below what I paid even during the recession (although that was probably 15% below the peak in 2007/2008).

 

 

Although 50% is nothing to sniff at compared to some of the other depressed markets in the USA, it sounds as though your percentage gain could have been higher if you had stayed with the condo market in Manhattan. Like Gene says though, that is a completely different market and lifestyle that is unique unto itself. Always nice to own a piece of land with a front lawn and back yard, even though it is more work.

 

Looks like the property values in my city have gone up by almost 150% from 2005 through to 2014, and looks headed for another 20% or 30%+ gain in 2015 over last year's assessment based on the selling prices that we are seeing so far for this year. Unless of course, the market corrects itself before then. But I don't think we'll be that lucky here.

 

Good to be a homeowner right now, but not so good if you are part of the younger generation that's just starting out and trying to buy a house at the same time. It's hard to come up with a million dollars for a starter home on the poor side of town unless you have a nice copy of Action Comics #1 to sell.

 

It is "only" up 50% because the market was never "depressed", at least where I am, so it wasn't going up from being 50% down.

 

I was never in the higher end condo market DK describes because it way way too rich for my blood. I am just a schlub public servant, my wife is a university professor and our families have no money. I doubt my old apartment is cracking 7 figures though, thus I don't think it is up 50%.

[the blob]

"I can see NYC real estate going down, but not because of globalization."

 

Yeah, more like because of the current mayor who does not believe we need the police and maybe we can function on an honor system or something.

[delekkerste]

I do think the city was right to eliminate the 421-a tax abatements, though:

 

95% Property Tax Break Paid for by You, Enjoyed by Billionaires

 

One57 developer got $66 million in 421-a tax abatements in return for $5.9 million in affordable housing

 

How Your Tax Dollars Are Wasted To Build Luxury Apartments

 

Another well-intentioned, feel-good government program that ended up benefiting the wealthy much more than the poor for whom it was intended to help (my hedge fund buddy living in a rent-stabilized apartment for the past 20+ years is another).

[Hamlet]

Two points:

 

Mortgage rates are keyed off the 10-year Treasury rate, not the Federal Funds rate.

 

 

so as long as the China doesn't dump all our debt they hold in the open market, we're ok?

 

Looks like the fears about China selling our debt have been a little over blown--

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-09/china-slashes-u-s-debt-stake-by-180-billion-and-bonds-shrug

 

They have been selling, but it doesn't look like it mattered much to the bond market.

[drdonaldblake]

remember back just a few years ago , circa 2012,13 selling prices for many key Silver age cgc's in 9.4 or better were @ all time highs

 

eg avngers 4 cgc 9.6 etc

 

selling prices now for these sort of books are about half of what they were then

[VintageComics]

remember back just a few years ago , circa 2012,13 selling prices for many key Silver age cgc's in 9.4 or better were @ all time highs

 

eg avngers 4 cgc 9.6 etc

 

selling prices now for these sort of books are about half of what they were then

 

Not all books though. Some have continued to climb without pulling back.

 

And many of those 'all time high' sales were also negotiated deals, not auction wins. Sometimes someone needs to have a book 'right now' and people will overpay in those situations.

 

I always thought the $92K Avengers #4 sale was to someone who thought it would upgrade to 9.8.

 

 

[drdonaldblake]

I just remember there were some really historically high sales of eg ff 12 and ff 5 in 9.4 and 9.2 and prices on those have really come down

[NewWorldOrder]

I just remember there were some really historically high sales of eg ff 12 and ff 5 in 9.4 and 9.2 and prices on those have really come down

 

There are books right now going for historically high prices.

 

So what are you butt hurt about?

[VintageComics]

I just remember there were some really historically high sales of eg ff 12 and ff 5 in 9.4 and 9.2 and prices on those have really come down

 

I'll agree with you on FF #12.

 

That FF #12 that went for like $76K on Clink was nuts but I also believe it was thought to be a 9.6 candidate. That was about 2008 or so. I think FF #12 was about a $40-50K book at the time, so you're correct, the price on that book has dropped but the census has swollen from 2 in 9.4 to many in 9.4 and now even a few in 9.6.

 

I don't remember any FF #5 anomalies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[kimik]

Low to mid grade SA keys are still doing well. This is the end of the market that has the largest customer base.

 

The problem with the top end of the market is that the buying pool is limited. As a result, when one of the big fish cashes in it can be a bit of a drop to where the next one is waiting to buy at.

[Amadeus Arkham]

...unless someone whips out a 9.2 copy of Action #1.

[delekkerste]

Alibaba founder Jack Ma buys $193 million, 9,000 square foot home in Hong Kong

 

$19,553 per square foot - that's what I call buying a home on The (Victoria) Peak, at The Peak of the Market.

[lou_fine]

remember back just a few years ago , circa 2012,13 selling prices for many key Silver age cgc's in 9.4 or better were @ all time highs

 

eg avngers 4 cgc 9.6 etc

 

selling prices now for these sort of books are about half of what they were then

 

Absolutely no surprise here as this was totally expected for CGC transactions whereby the large majority of the purchase cost was attributed to the transitory and diminishing value of the CGC label, as opposed to the actual underlying book itself.

 

Especially in the case of the so-called "highest graded copy" where a huge premium is being paid for the CGC hype and fluff, and really has nowhere to go but down as the discovery or creation of even a single copy in equivalent or higher grade would crush the value of the initial purchase price.

 

On the other end, it's so much better to buy into lower or mid grade books such as 'Tec 31, More Fun 73, etc. which have gone up multiples over the same time period and this year alone, as more copies come to market and the earlier purchases are being reaffirmed and reinforced through continual rising prices.

 

Bottom-line: Buy books whereby the maximum amount is being paid for the underlying value of the book itself, and the minimum amount is being paid for the hype and fluff associated with the diminishing value of the CGC label.