Which market will crash first? housing market or the comic market?

[delekkerste]

Hey Gene, as long as the mainstream pubs and WSJ keep worrying about the real estate bubble and publishing articles about the speculative nature of the market, it won't crash. It's only after most of the skeptics throw in the towel after another burst of price appreciation, and the mainstream pubs jump on the train and stop publishing negative articles, that it will all come crashing down.

 

Maybe...but, then again, can the end be far away when you see stuff like this:

 

http://www.condoflip.com/

 

[shrunkenhead]

the same is true of the vast majority of the housing market. There's been no mad rush on houses in Northern Illinois, for example, and thus there will be no crash. It's just the hot properties that are going to take the fall.

 

Is that like how only the bubbly Nasdaq crashed between March 2000 and October 2002, while the Dow and S&P went on to make new high after new high? I guess that drop in the S&P from 1552.87 to 768.63 was all just a dream!

 

Gene, while I agree with about 98% of your response, I think you're taking me a little bit out of context here. I didn't say that folks in Northern Illinois would not hurt a little. I did say there would be "no crash" for properties that were not bought up fast and furiously and speculative rates. To take the analogy back to comics, those who buy a bronze book slabbed at 9.9 are going to hurt worse on the downward spiral than those who bought a GA 6.5. That's not to say that the GA 6.5 isn't going to go down some. But there's simply less to lose.

[delekkerste]

To take the analogy back to comics, those who buy a bronze book slabbed at 9.9 are going to hurt worse on the downward spiral than those who bought a GA 6.5. That's not to say that the GA 6.5 isn't going to go down some. But there's simply less to lose.

 

I both agree and disagree. On a percentage basis, GA will likely hold up better than Bronze, Copper and Modern books. But, the average $ value of a GA collection is probably a lot higher than your typical Bronze/Modern collection. So, if a $50,000 GA collection goes down by 30%, the owner has lost $15,000. Meanwhile, if a $10,000 collection with the likes of IF #14, Ghost Rider #1, etc. goes down 70%, the owner has lost $7,000. It's debatable which collector would be worse off in this scenario.

[the blob]

Did quality GA and SA get hit hard last time there was a comic market crash? This was pre ebay, so it's hard to determine. I didn't really get that sense. There were comic shops unloading inventory, true, but this time around there won't be much of that because comic shops (the 20% or so of them that survived) don't rely on this to pay the rent.

 

Of course, the last crash came after a real estate bubble was over and right in the middle of an economic recovery, so that may have helped to stabilize more "blue chip" books.

 

Personally, I think there's less of a "flipper" mentality among GA collectors, and if they're flipping it is to upgrade and/or get bigger/better books. They didn't dump $1500 on a nice Batman 7 with the idea that it would be $2000 in 12 months, but rather, because they really wanted it. And if they sell it, it's because they really need to money or want to buy something else with the money, not that they're in a panic because a similar copy recently sold for $1300.

[Aman619]

There are always clues to a comic crash coming.

 

Would that be anything like dealers tripping over themselves to get in on the goldmine of selling pressed books and every thread on the CGC Forum turning into a protest against pressing?

 

Let's face it - everybody "knew" that the Nasdaq was a huge bubble and yet almost nobody got out despite all the clues. It's not enough to recognize the clues; you also have to have the right mindset to be able to act on them. In theory, you're right - people should be able to see the signs and get out before a crash comes. But, then again, theoretically, it should be easy for people to lose weight - just exercise more and eat less. Easier said than done.

 

Gene, how come I get the feeling you've got your apartment/house on the market?? : )

[Aman619]

To take the analogy back to comics, those who buy a bronze book slabbed at 9.9 are going to hurt worse on the downward spiral than those who bought a GA 6.5. That's not to say that the GA 6.5 isn't going to go down some. But there's simply less to lose.

 

I both agree and disagree. On a percentage basis, GA will likely hold up better than Bronze, Copper and Modern books. But, the average $ value of a GA collection is probably a lot higher than your typical Bronze/Modern collection. So, if a $50,000 GA collection goes down by 30%, the owner has lost $15,000. Meanwhile, if a $10,000 collection with the likes of IF #14, Ghost Rider #1, etc. goes down 70%, the owner has lost $7,000. It's debatable which collector would be worse off in this scenario.

 

wouldnt any comparison depend on the cost basis of each collection? Losing 15K sounds worse than 7K, but losing 70% is twice as bad as losing 35%. But if the GA collection costs 20K, its now up 75% overall. And the if Moderns bought on the newstand cost 2K, its now worth 3K, or up 50%.

 

So even having lost more $$$, Id take the GA collection even after the biggger hit. Right?

[comicworm]

You know this debate is actually quite funny:

 

ask anyone at Comic Link or Metropolis and they will tell you that comics are great investments for the long haul....

 

of course they are dealers now though as well.....

[shrunkenhead]

ask anyone at Comic Link or Metropolis and they will tell you that comics are great investments for the long haul....

 

of course they are dealers now though as well.....

 

Finally figured that one out, did you now.

[tth2]

Did quality GA and SA get hit hard last time there was a comic market crash?

Has there actually ever BEEN a GA or SA "crash" in all the years since comic collecting started taking off in the late 1960s? I've been collecting and getting back issue catalogs since the mid-1970s, and with respect to SA, which I know much better than GA, I would be hard-pressed to say there's ever been a crash up til now. There have been periods of softness in SA prices, most notably around 1983-85 during the B&W/indie bubble, the early 90s during the Valiant bubble, and then the late 90s just before CGC came on the scene, but I think it would be a stretch to say that there was ever a crash.

 

I'm not saying there WON'T be a crash, because there's never been a run up in SA prices like we've seen over the past 5 years. But it would be unexplored territory, I think, and I certainly don't see all of the gains of the past 5 years or so being wiped out.

[tth2]

You know this debate is actually quite funny:

 

ask anyone at Comic Link or Metropolis and they will tell you that comics are great investments for the long haul....

 

of course they are dealers now though as well.....

Aah, my hair shirt is here, just in time for me to don as my day gets underway. The pain is so cleansing.

[krazykat-migration]

Did quality GA and SA get hit hard last time there was a comic market crash? This was pre ebay, so it's hard to determine. I didn't really get that sense. There were comic shops unloading inventory, true, but this time around there won't be much of that because comic shops (the 20% or so of them that survived) don't rely on this to pay the rent.

 

WAS THERE A CRASH??? WAS THERE A CRASH? I REMEMBER 1998-1999 RIGHT BEFORE CGC LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY. IF YOU BROUGHT YOUR BOOKS TO A DEALER, OR ADVERTISED IN CBG OR DID A COMIC SHOW, YOUR BOOKS WERE PRACTICALLY WORTHLESS. DO YOU HEAR ME..."WORTHELESS". NOBODY WANTED THEM. IF IT WASN'T MINT, THEY WOULD SAY "VG'S AND F'S WERE BECOMING LESS SIGNIFICANT. IF IT WASN'T BATMAN OR SPIDERMAN, THEY WOULD SAY "NOBODY CARES". IF IT WAS RESTORED....IT WAS THE KISS OF DEATH. THE HOBBY WAS DEAD. NOBODY PAID REAL $$$$. EVERYBODY WANTED TO TRADE. NOBODY WOULD PAY $500 FOR A MODERN BOOK. LET ALONE 50 CENTS...GET IT??? IT WAS A CRASH. THEY WERE WORTHLESS....AND IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN....WATCH.

[goldust40]

Did quality GA and SA get hit hard last time there was a comic market crash? This was pre ebay, so it's hard to determine. I didn't really get that sense. There were comic shops unloading inventory, true, but this time around there won't be much of that because comic shops (the 20% or so of them that survived) don't rely on this to pay the rent.

 

WAS THERE A CRASH??? WAS THERE A CRASH? I REMEMBER 1998-1999 RIGHT BEFORE CGC LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY. IF YOU BROUGHT YOUR BOOKS TO A DEALER, OR ADVERTISED IN CBG OR DID A COMIC SHOW, YOUR BOOKS WERE PRACTICALLY WORTHLESS. DO YOU HEAR ME..."WORTHELESS". NOBODY WANTED THEM. IF IT WASN'T MINT, THEY WOULD SAY "VG'S AND F'S WERE BECOMING LESS SIGNIFICANT. IF IT WASN'T BATMAN OR SPIDERMAN, THEY WOULD SAY "NOBODY CARES". IF IT WAS RESTORED....IT WAS THE KISS OF DEATH. THE HOBBY WAS DEAD. NOBODY PAID REAL $$$$. EVERYBODY WANTED TO TRADE. NOBODY WOULD PAY $500 FOR A MODERN BOOK. LET ALONE 50 CENTS...GET IT??? IT WAS A CRASH. THEY WERE WORTHLESS....AND IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN....WATCH.

 

Tim, got any spare hair shirts?

[drbanner]

WAS THERE A CRASH???

 

 

[comicworm]

Did quality GA and SA get hit hard last time there was a comic market crash? This was pre ebay, so it's hard to determine. I didn't really get that sense. There were comic shops unloading inventory, true, but this time around there won't be much of that because comic shops (the 20% or so of them that survived) don't rely on this to pay the rent.

 

WAS THERE A CRASH??? WAS THERE A CRASH? I REMEMBER 1998-1999 RIGHT BEFORE CGC LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY. IF YOU BROUGHT YOUR BOOKS TO A DEALER, OR ADVERTISED IN CBG OR DID A COMIC SHOW, YOUR BOOKS WERE PRACTICALLY WORTHLESS. DO YOU HEAR ME..."WORTHELESS". NOBODY WANTED THEM. IF IT WASN'T MINT, THEY WOULD SAY "VG'S AND F'S WERE BECOMING LESS SIGNIFICANT. IF IT WASN'T BATMAN OR SPIDERMAN, THEY WOULD SAY "NOBODY CARES". IF IT WAS RESTORED....IT WAS THE KISS OF DEATH. THE HOBBY WAS DEAD. NOBODY PAID REAL $$$$. EVERYBODY WANTED TO TRADE. NOBODY WOULD PAY $500 FOR A MODERN BOOK. LET ALONE 50 CENTS...GET IT??? IT WAS A CRASH. THEY WERE WORTHLESS....AND IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN....WATCH.

 

 

Uh, Keys words in this post are BEFORE CGC!

 

Got it? Okay....

[the blob]

the all caps is a sign that he's kidding

 

things got slow in 98-99, but i didn't see a crash in terms of quality stuff

 

(heck, who would buy comics when you could make 300% a year buying the IPO of dogdoo.com?)

 

at that time it seemed like people were thinking a bit more about GA and early SA, pre-code horror, stuff where there weren't long boxes and long boxes of the same issue in dealer stock. lots of activity at the carbonaro shows.

[Aman619]

there were severe financial penalties to putting serious bucks into comic books during the 90s bull market. Why spend 10, 20, 30, or 50K a year buying HG comics to "earn" 5% in the next Guide when buying Wintel etc etc was doubling every year??? And that was REAL cash money not Overstreet paper profits. Serious money for comics went into the market insyead. It just didnt make sense otherwise...

 

 

You kids are too young to remember all this..... kidding

[krazykat-migration]

 

 

Uh, Keys words in this post are BEFORE CGC!

 

Got it? Okay....

 

Worm,

 

Once again you display an uncanny ability to demonstrate that you are not only uneducated but you are also obtuse. My point- that before CGC there was a crash, is MY POINT. So don't ago correcting me boy when I say what I mean to say and mean what I wanna say...Got it?

 

Good.

 

Krazy

[comicworm]

 

 

Uh, Keys words in this post are BEFORE CGC!

 

Got it? Okay....

 

Worm,

 

Once again you display an uncanny ability to demonstrate that you are not only uneducated but you are also obtuse. My point- that before CGC there was a crash, is MY POINT. So don't ago correcting me boy when I say what I mean to say and mean what I wanna say...Got it?

 

Good.

 

Krazy

 

 

Once agin with this quote you have proven yourself uneducated and an obtuse. Cas in point: KEY WORDS BEFORE CGC!

 

Thank you!

[the blob]

yes, but in 98, 99, comics were still a hobby. very very very very few people were buying comics instead of investing in the stock market. it was more like blowing spare mad money. you know, like picking between a hooker and that nice x-men 94.

 

when i'd go to one of these local shows in 94-98 with $1000 to spend it was like i was a big spender. not to the harley yees of the world, but the next steps down.

 

as for the early 90s speculation, buying 500 copies of spawn 1 for a buck a pop to speculate on is pure small time, small change, stuff. the amount of work involved in unloading those hyped modern books made them no substitute for a nice passive investment.

 

$5K slabs that might be $6K in 2 months on the other hand....

[shrunkenhead]

While it's admittedly a very different world of comics than it was only 5 years ago, I think you're going to generate a lot of disagreement over whether or not there were a lot of big spenders in '98 and '99. There were, and that hasn't changed. While the slab market has seen crazy money for very specific types of books (high grade marvel silver, for example), there has been a happy and healthy market for pricey books long before the CGC explosion.

 

GA staple books like All-Star, for example, have not really been helped much by the CGC marketplace. True, they may sell more briskly now than they used to thanks to resto detection and such. But they don't achieve crazy multiples; yet they're still going for the big bucks that they went for before CGC.

 

I think you can track the "stock market or comic market" mentality all the way back to the mid-eighties. What makes that attitude so more pervasive is the techonology that's at our fingertips---ebay, GPA, comiclink, etc. When a big deal goes down nowadays, suddenly everybody and their grammy knows about it. THAT's what's really changed, bigtime.