How have label chasers affected the hobby

[topofthetotem]

I agree but somtimes all you got to go on is a description or a kinda small pic in ebay I do find nice books don't get me wrong but alot of people seem to think that because ultra HG slabs sell for a certain price ungraded should follow suit

[PovertyRow]

If the multiples on HGs collapse, and they very well could, don't you think that will ripple through mid- and low-grade books? In the 2 major SA slumps I've seen in my collecting life (early 80s and late 90s), mid- and low-grade prices suffered much more than HG prices, which is why the ratios in OS's HG and non-HG prices have widened over the years, even in the pre-CGC era. And according to FD, even then the mid- and low-grade prices in OS are still overstated

 

I remember these very well but the main reason the low-mid grade books slumped was because they were stagnant at their current prices and dealers were selling them at discounts, which finally made it into the guide. The reason being that low-mid grade SA books are quite common overall. And the prices for mid-grade were too high for what you were getting. So the mid-grades got adjusted do the dealers could move stock.

 

However, we are long passed the normal spread that was then-prevelant. With more high grade being slabbed, they have become an entity unto themselves.

 

For better or worse, some people are seeking the highest grades they can find and will pay to get them. However, such should, in my opinion, have no relevance on the prices of low-mid grade books. But the original spread of 1-3 and even the later spread of 1-10 are no longer relevant when a book is slabbed. I feel this is one reason why OS put a 9.2 cutoff in the guide. because there is no more relevance between what a, say, 9.8 slabbed SA (even a common) can fetch and the dame book in Good or VG or even Fine. Heck, even VF.

 

Folks are making the 9.4+ field a field unto itself.

[tth2]

If the multiples on HGs collapse, and they very well could, don't you think that will ripple through mid- and low-grade books? In the 2 major SA slumps I've seen in my collecting life (early 80s and late 90s), mid- and low-grade prices suffered much more than HG prices, which is why the ratios in OS's HG and non-HG prices have widened over the years, even in the pre-CGC era. And according to FD, even then the mid- and low-grade prices in OS are still overstated

 

I remember these very well but the main reason the low-mid grade books slumped was because they were stagnant at their current prices and dealers were selling them at discounts, which finally made it into the guide. The reason being that low-mid grade SA books are quite common overall. And the prices for mid-grade were too high for what you were getting. So the mid-grades got adjusted do the dealers could move stock.

 

However, we are long passed the normal spread that was then-prevelant. With more high grade being slabbed, they have become an entity unto themselves.

 

For better or worse, some people are seeking the highest grades they can find and will pay to get them. However, such should, in my opinion, have no relevance on the prices of low-mid grade books. But the original spread of 1-3 and even the later spread of 1-10 are no longer relevant when a book is slabbed. I feel this is one reason why OS put a 9.2 cutoff in the guide. because there is no more relevance between what a, say, 9.8 slabbed SA (even a common) can fetch and the dame book in Good or VG or even Fine. Heck, even VF.

 

Folks are making the 9.4+ field a field unto itself.

Good points, POV, but I have to disagree. First, when it comes to SA and BA, the OS prices at VF and below still don't reflect reality, whether raw or slabbed. So the spread with NM books is actually wider than currently shown in OS, and would become even wider if there were a collapse at the high end, as explained below.

 

Second, if the prices of slabbed 9.4 books collapse to the point that they are only going for 1X OS 9.2 price (which is really the old OS 9.4 price), there are a lot of VF collectors that will upgrade, which means that their current VF copies will become available, and then the F collectors will upgrade, and so on down the chain. The sheer volume of books at these grades (again, I'm speaking primarily of SA and BA) will cause books in these grades to drop disproportionately.

 

The fact is that very few collectors collect, say, F books because they genuinely covet F books. Most collect in that grade because that is the best they can afford in light of their collecting goals. This would therefore put disproportionate pressure on mid- and low-grade books. I think this is already happening in late-SA, where there have already been declines in multiples for 9.4+ books, and for some BA books where multiples for 9.4 prices have already started to collapse as their common-ness has become recognized (although there is still an amazing amount of froth for 9.6 and 9.8 BAs).

[JuliusSeizure]

Second, if the prices of slabbed 9.4 books collapse to the point that they are only going for 1X OS 9.2 price (which is really the old OS 9.4 price), there are a lot of VF collectors that will upgrade, which means that their current VF copies will become available, and then the F collectors will upgrade, and so on down the chain. The sheer volume of books at these grades (again, I'm speaking primarily of SA and BA) will cause books in these grades to drop disproportionately.

Yes, but isn't it true that only some fraction of collectors at each step in the chain will choose to upgrade? The fractional multiplier effect would then insulate the lower grades from the worst of the price shocks brought about by the glut of lower-grade supply left behind by the upgraders. (And that's not accounting for the possible entrance of new collectors into the hobby, attracted by the sudden affordability.)

 

What I mean is, the increase in supply of, say, VG books on the market would be related to (average percentage of collectors who upgrade at each step) ^ (number of links in the upgrade chain between 9.4 and VG). If 70 percent of collectors upgrade at each step and there are 4 steps between 9.4 and VG, that's less than a 25% bump in the supply side of the market at the VG level, probably not enough to depress prices significantly.

 

That's a back-of-the-envelope analysis which relies on assumptions that aren't firmly based in reality, I'm just trying to illustrate the point that a tsunami in the high grade market might cause no more than ripples in the low grade market.

[tth2]

Second, if the prices of slabbed 9.4 books collapse to the point that they are only going for 1X OS 9.2 price (which is really the old OS 9.4 price), there are a lot of VF collectors that will upgrade, which means that their current VF copies will become available, and then the F collectors will upgrade, and so on down the chain. The sheer volume of books at these grades (again, I'm speaking primarily of SA and BA) will cause books in these grades to drop disproportionately.

Yes, but isn't it true that only some fraction of collectors at each step in the chain will choose to upgrade? The fractional multiplier effect would then insulate the lower grades from the worst of the price shocks brought about by the glut of lower-grade supply left behind by the upgraders. (And that's not accounting for the possible entrance of new collectors into the hobby, attracted by the sudden affordability.)

 

What I mean is, the increase in supply of, say, VG books on the market would be related to (average percentage of collectors who upgrade at each step) ^ (number of links in the upgrade chain between 9.4 and VG). If 70 percent of collectors upgrade at each step and there are 4 steps between 9.4 and VG, that's less than a 25% bump in the supply side of the market at the VG level, probably not enough to depress prices significantly.

 

That's a back-of-the-envelope analysis which relies on assumptions that aren't firmly based in reality, I'm just trying to illustrate the point that a tsunami in the high grade market might cause no more than ripples in the low grade market.

JS, you make a good point. However, I think you're underestimating the impact of incremental changes in supply on price. Basically, I think there is not a 1:1 correlation between increase in supply and drop in price, it's actually a multiple. So a 25% increase in supply does not result in a 25% drop in price, it actually results in a drop significantly greater than 25%. What the actual drop would be, I don't know (you know, there's probably an economics thesis project in here).

 

This is simply based on my observations during the 2 slumps I've seen. When HG prices fell by 10% or more at the beginning of the 80s and the late 90s, mid- and low-grade prices fell much more than 10% (not necessarily as measured by the OS, but if you went to a con there was blood flowing in the streets when it came to dealers' mid- and low-grade inventory).

[Red Hook]

I am not aware of the prices for 9.2's being dragged up that quickly behind the bump in prices for the uber-grade books. Prices for 8.0, 8.5 and 9.0 on the other hand seem quite reasonable these days.

[krazykat-migration]

The problems with HG comic books as a safe/ stable investment are multi-faceted. This pressing thing is pretty bad and underscores a major problem. Why would someone pay $25,000 for a 10.00 ASM # 19 when in a few months, years another can be 'pressed' into existence. This creates MAJOR LEAGUE insecurity. How can a market stabilize and grow when the very supply of the commodities rarity is debatable ? Additionally, CGC's foray into the market injected alotta HOT $$$ but that is ending in this cycle of the comic market and somethin g new must occur cause that trick is getting old. CGC is the restoration of the past,....considered a boon but really a LONG-TERM drag. Ultimately, HG comics will be liquidated as people begin worrying that the trend is at an end. JMHO. I think alotta this $$$ will find its way into OA. Again,...JMHO.

[topofthetotem]

with that money going into OA cause comic prices to drop? alot of people pay big money not only for slabbed books but also for raw books in the hope they slab at a 9.2/9.4/9.6/9.8

will prices drop then level off I remember that happened to baseball cards

[krazykat-migration]

with that money going into OA cause comic prices to drop?

 

Probably not because many comic collectors recognize that their comic collections arent going to allow them to get very much bang for their buck, as OA is much more expensive than comics. However, I still believe this logic is faulty, from an investment standpoint, because OA collectors is such a small number of people and the growth prospects are exponentially higher.

 

 

alot of people pay big money not only for slabbed books but also for raw books in the hope they slab at a 9.2/9.4/9.6/9.8

will prices drop then level off I remember that happened to baseball cards

 

Comics as a commodity will stabilize but I do believe someone looking for an ASM #1 to hit half a million will be waiting a long, long time,...I just cant see alotta Silver going much higher than it already has,..ESPECIALLY with this pressing issue such a major liabilty.

[sfilosa]

The problems with HG comic books as a safe/ stable investment are multi-faceted. This pressing thing is pretty bad and underscores a major problem.

 

You are dreaming if you think PRESSING is, or ever will be a serious issue to comic collectors. These boards do not represent the majority of buyers. And if you don't believe me, look at how many collectors still buy uncertified books, taking a much bigger chance of poor grading and restoration.

 

CGC has brought a measure of security to comic purchases. It's like an Alarm System in a house. It's not full proof, but people aren't going to go back and accept less security.

 

Now will comic books retained their value (or increase in price), no one knows. But Undisclosed Pressing will not be CGC's (and the comic book market) downfall.

[krazykat-migration]

sfilosa,

 

I have to disagree. AT THE HIGH-END pressing does matter.

 

No one will pay 30K - 120K for a book and not wanna have some understanding of everything relevant which influences price.

 

Pressing is relevant because it can/ and potentially more so in the future undermine the value of a comic book.

 

Show me someone who spends 30K PLUS on a comic book and doesnt care about pressing,....

 

And Ill show you a person who has a very good chance of losing money on his investment. It is only reasonably prudent to calculate the effect of pressing into the price of a book.

 

I personally find it ludicrous that someone will spend 90K on an ASM #1 in HG when there is a VERY, VERY, VERY good chance more will be 'pressed into existence' in the coming decade.

 

At the same time,..the Original Art to Amazing Spiderman #41 is up for sale,...and there's no chance of there being another. And it was drawn by John Romita himself,....and the piece is worth less than 90K ? I think not.

 

I see many arbitrarge opportunities in OA that I just dont see in comics,...PRIMARILY BECAUSE PRESSING THREATENS THE SCARCITY SUPPLY.

 

This is JMHO,...so take it for whatever you think its worth.

 

PEACE OUT !

[joe_collector]

You are dreaming if you think PRESSING is, or ever will be a serious issue to comic collectors. These boards do not represent the majority of buyers.

 

I don't know if you do it on purpose, or just act dumb, but you seem pretty dense at times.

 

This comment has NOTHING to do with opinion, but the FACT that rampant pressing will have a LONG-TERM effect on the CENSUS and, in some cases (late-Silver, Bronze), high supplies+pressing will virtually flood the market with NM or higher copies.

 

That kind of impact is something that will definitely affect collecting, as supply will only continue to increase and rampant pressing just makes it worse.

 

* Note this is where sfilosa chimes in with his "but pressing has been going long before CGC" straw-man...

[october]

You are dreaming if you think PRESSING is, or ever will be a serious issue to comic collectors. These boards do not represent the majority of buyers.

 

I don't know if you do it on purpose, or just act dumb, but you seem pretty dense at times.

 

This comment has NOTHING to do with opinion, but the FACT that rampant pressing will have a LONG-TERM effect on the CENSUS and, in some cases (late-Silver, Bronze), high supplies+pressing will virtually flood the market with NM or higher copies.

 

That kind of impact is something that will definitely affect collecting, as supply will only continue to increase and rampant pressing just makes it worse.

 

* Note this is where sfilosa chimes in with his "but pressing has been going long before CGC" straw-man...

 

You guys have been seriously skewed by these boards. 99.9% of comic book collectors don't even know what the census IS, let along give a shiite if it is "flooded with NM or higher copies". If you went to a con, and stopped 100 people, I would bet that 5 or less could tell you what pressing was. Out of those 5 people, 4 probably wouldn't care about it. Pressing's importance relative to this hobby has been blown completely out of proportion because most of the people on here collect high grade books. Thinking that pressing a few comics into high grade will have an appreciable affect on the hobby in general is nothing short of ludicrous. The fact is, most collectors don't care about pressing, CGC, the census, or anything else that is held up to such extreme scrutiny here. This board is a VERY poor example of what the typical comic enthusiast is interested in. NM raw and CGC books represent probably less than 1% of books at cons and at stores, yet everyone here is arrogant enough to assert that the success or failure of slabs will dictate the future of the hobby. Get real.

[joe_collector]

You guys have been seriously skewed by these boards. 99.9% of comic book collectors don't even know what the census IS, let along give a shiite if it is "flooded with NM or higher copies".

 

Another well-reasoned and though-out reply.

 

So you're ABSOLUTELY SURE that the people who would pay 20X+ Guide for a CGC 9.6 (which is who we're talking about) have no idea what a Census is, and won't give a [embarrasing lack of self control] if the market is "flooded with NM or higher copies"?

 

Remember, we're talking about the label-chasing, high-grade CGC buyer, not generic collectors or the entire raw market as a whole... just in case you haven't read the preceeding pages or looked at the title.

 

Those people DO care.

[krazykat-migration]

You are dreaming if you think PRESSING is, or ever will be a serious issue to comic collectors. These boards do not represent the majority of buyers.

 

I don't know if you do it on purpose, or just act dumb, but you seem pretty dense at times.

 

This comment has NOTHING to do with opinion, but the FACT that rampant pressing will have a LONG-TERM effect on the CENSUS and, in some cases (late-Silver, Bronze), high supplies+pressing will virtually flood the market with NM or higher copies.

 

That kind of impact is something that will definitely affect collecting, as supply will only continue to increase and rampant pressing just makes it worse.

 

* Note this is where sfilosa chimes in with his "but pressing has been going long before CGC" straw-man...

 

You guys have been seriously skewed by these boards. 99.9% of comic book collectors don't even know what the census IS, let along give a shiite if it is "flooded with NM or higher copies". If you went to a con, and stopped 100 people, I would bet that 5 or less could tell you what pressing was. Out of those 5 people, 4 probably wouldn't care about it. Pressing's importance relative to this hobby has been blown completely out of proportion because most of the people on here collect high grade books. Thinking that pressing a few comics into high grade will have an appreciable affect on the hobby in general is nothing short of ludicrous. The fact is, most collectors don't care about pressing, CGC, the census, or anything else that is held up to such extreme scrutiny here. This board is a VERY poor example of what the typical comic enthusiast is interested in. NM raw and CGC books represent probably less than 1% of books at cons and at stores, yet everyone here is arrogant enough to assert that the success or failure of slabs will dictate the future of the hobby. Get real.

 

October,

 

Your argument is in my opinion a VERY WEAK ONE.

 

Firstly, the fact that many in the market are trading with IMPERFECT INFORMATION does not alter the fact that the comic market still must obey the general laws of supply and demand.

 

Hence, if more High Grade books are pressed into existence,...it doesnt really matter that 'collectors are aware of this or not,....more supply when demand remains constant,..will result in LOWER PRICES. THIS IS A INDISPUTABLE PRINCIPLE OF ECONOMICS.

 

Secondly, if the 'MARKET LEADERS' (High Grade books) take a 'hit' and are suppressed from climbing higher,...you can bet your bottom dollar the rest of the market will take a nice hit' too,.

 

What I have just stated is so obvious and pretty simple Economics 101. Denial of these facts is ,....not the other way around.

[october]

 

You guys have been seriously skewed by these boards. 99.9% of comic book collectors don't even know what the census IS, let along give a shiite if it is "flooded with NM or higher copies". If you went to a con, and stopped 100 people, I would bet that 5 or less could tell you what pressing was. Out of those 5 people, 4 probably wouldn't care about it. Pressing's importance relative to this hobby has been blown completely out of proportion because most of the people on here collect high grade books. Thinking that pressing a few comics into high grade will have an appreciable affect on the hobby in general is nothing short of ludicrous. The fact is, most collectors don't care about pressing, CGC, the census, or anything else that is held up to such extreme scrutiny here. This board is a VERY poor example of what the typical comic enthusiast is interested in. NM raw and CGC books represent probably less than 1% of books at cons and at stores, yet everyone here is arrogant enough to assert that the success or failure of slabs will dictate the future of the hobby. Get real.

 

October,

 

Your argument is in my opinion a VERY WEAK ONE.

 

Firstly, the fact that many in the market are trading with IMPERFECT INFORMATION does not alter the fact that the comic market still must obey the general laws of supply and demand.

 

Hence, if more High Grade books are pressed into existence,...it doesnt really matter that 'collectors are aware of this or not,....more supply when demand remains constant,..will result in LOWER PRICES. THIS IS A INDISPUTABLE PRINCIPLE OF ECONOMICS.

 

Secondly, if the 'MARKET LEADERS' (High Grade books) take a 'hit' and are suppressed from climbing higher,...you can bet your bottom dollar the rest of the market will take a nice hit' too,.

 

What I have just stated is so obvious and pretty simple Economics 101. Denial of these facts is ,....not the other way around.

 

Your argument relies on so many assumptions it's laughable. You honestly believe that pressing a few hundred books into NM is going to tank the hobby? That could be the dumbest thing I have ever heard. 99.9% of transactions are for low dollar books. They will stay low dollar no matter what happens with the census, CGC, or any other nonsense we love to heap importance upon. Do you even know anything about pressing? It's not a magic cure-all that suddenly turns 6.0 books into 9.4s. The books that will take a big leap from being pressed are few and far between, not to mention the fact that it's not detectible. Have you people ever been to conventions or paid attention to the hobby in general? I get the impression you are not very familiar with how the average person collects. Yeah, you are right. If a few dozen people don't pay 10K for SA 9.8s anymore, my VF Silver Surfer 4 is really going to lose its value.

[october]

You guys have been seriously skewed by these boards. 99.9% of comic book collectors don't even know what the census IS, let along give a shiite if it is "flooded with NM or higher copies".

 

Another well-reasoned and though-out reply.

 

So you're ABSOLUTELY SURE that the people who would pay 20X+ Guide for a CGC 9.6 (which is who we're talking about) have no idea what a Census is, and won't give a [embarrasing lack of self control] if the market is "flooded with NM or higher copies"?

 

Remember, we're talking about the label-chasing, high-grade CGC buyer, not generic collectors or the entire raw market as a whole... just in case you haven't read the preceeding pages or looked at the title.

 

Those people DO care.

 

I was replying to this statement: "That kind of impact is something that will definitely affect collecting, as supply will only continue to increase and rampant pressing just makes it worse." Your point was about collecting as a whole, not some small segment of 20x guide buyers. Don't try and qualify your statement after it has been made.

 

[joe_collector]

I was replying to this statement: "That kind of impact is something that will definitely affect collecting, as supply will only continue to increase and rampant pressing just makes it worse." Your point was about collecting as a whole, not some small segment of 20x guide buyers. Don't try and qualify your statement after it has been made.

 

My God, you people are anal.

 

You really FAIL to see how increasing the SUPPLY of SLABBED high-grade relates to the the DEMAND of SLABBED high-grade and the PRICES paid by the SLABBED high-grade buyer... all in a thread about LABEL CHASERS?

 

No qualifyiing needed, assuming you're not a primate.

 

Seriously, this is a CGC board, and we're talking about CGC label-chasers, pressing, supply-demand, and it's effects on the CGC market. That's the "market" where this thread is concerned, and you just look foolish trotting out this "99% of the market is raw" strawman.

 

Here's a clue for free: WE ALL KNOW THAT ALREADY and WE DON'T CARE.

 

Not even 1% of 1% of 1% of 1%, etc.... of all comics printed have been slabbed, so you'd have to be a turnip to not understand that.

 

But again, we don't care. Not a bit, not even a little bit.

[october]

I was replying to this statement: "That kind of impact is something that will definitely affect collecting, as supply will only continue to increase and rampant pressing just makes it worse." Your point was about collecting as a whole, not some small segment of 20x guide buyers. Don't try and qualify your statement after it has been made.

 

My God, you people are anal.

 

You really FAIL to see how increasing the SUPPLY of SLABBED high-grade relates to the the DEMAND of SLABBED high-grade and the PRICES paid by the SLABBED high-grade buyer... all in a thread about LABEL CHASERS?

 

No qualifyiing needed, assuming you're not a primate.

 

Seriously, this is a CGC board, and we're talking about CGC label-chasers, pressing, supply-demand, and it's effects on the CGC market. That's the "market" where this thread is concerned, and you just look foolish trotting out this "99% of the market is raw" strawman.

 

Here's a clue for free: WE ALL KNOW THAT ALREADY and WE DON'T CARE.

 

Not even 1% of 1% of 1% of 1%, etc.... of all comics printed have been slabbed, so you'd have to be a turnip to not understand that.

 

But again, we don't care. Not a bit, not even a little bit.

 

Right, because threads never, ever stray off topic and because the quote you were replying to wasn't about the hobby in general. In any case I will leave you Chicken Littles to your gloom and doom, the sky is falling circle jerk. Have fun with the hairshirt, who is apparently the only one who takes you diatribes seriously. There's a dubious honor if I ever saw one.

[krazykat-migration]

I was replying to this statement: "That kind of impact is something that will definitely affect collecting, as supply will only continue to increase and rampant pressing just makes it worse." Your point was about collecting as a whole, not some small segment of 20x guide buyers. Don't try and qualify your statement after it has been made.

 

My God, you people are anal.

 

You really FAIL to see how increasing the SUPPLY of SLABBED high-grade relates to the the DEMAND of SLABBED high-grade and the PRICES paid by the SLABBED high-grade buyer... all in a thread about LABEL CHASERS?

 

No qualifyiing needed, assuming you're not a primate.

 

Seriously, this is a CGC board, and we're talking about CGC label-chasers, pressing, supply-demand, and it's effects on the CGC market. That's the "market" where this thread is concerned, and you just look foolish trotting out this "99% of the market is raw" strawman.

 

Here's a clue for free: WE ALL KNOW THAT ALREADY and WE DON'T CARE.

 

Not even 1% of 1% of 1% of 1%, etc.... of all comics printed have been slabbed, so you'd have to be a turnip to not understand that.

 

But again, we don't care. Not a bit, not even a little bit.

 

This is all so funny. Alotta you collectors are in MAJOR DENIAL.

 

When AMAZON, EBAY, YAHOO, VERTICAL-NET, WEDDINGPLANNER.COM,....ETC.... all Market Leaders ,...CRASHED...did it hurt the broader market ?

 

ANSWER: for those not paying attention,..the answer is YES.

 

 

When the HG market collapses,...you'd have to be a numb-nut to not see ALL BOOKS will get hit.....either that or in MAJOR LEAGUE DENIAL.

 

RULE: When the Market Leaders collapse,..gernerally,..so does the market.