GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[cgcmod8]

The thread has been cleaned up.  Lets keep this on topic, which is Golden Age comics.  

[Mmehdy]

3 hours ago, cgcmod8 said:

The thread has been cleaned up.  Lets keep this on topic, which is Golden Age comics.  

That's cool, I understand  and thanks for not deleting the whole thread. This thread is gonna take a long time to play out. We don't have a real timeline here. But what we do know is that the vaccine could one of two types...the first one will slow down or shut down the symptoms that should hopefully be available  early 2021, as far as a cure to prevent it, I think that is a long time off or maybe never. I know Dr Facui says masks until 2022. The last pandemic went on for 4 years.

 As far as the GA/SA comic book market is concerned as long as those stimulus checks of $1200  come from the government, it should starve off depression. But as some point, somebody is gonna have to pay for all this "free" money and that means me and you. More tax means less disposable income for GA/SA comic books, auction prices could increase if sales tax or shipping increases with inflation. 

 At this juncture if GA/SA comic books could become a sold and recognized hedge against the coming  tidal wave  of inflation, then GA/SA comics, only investment quality, CGC unrestored higher grade and strong page quality, then like the current real estate market it should prosper or at least hold thru the toughest periods of this economic reckoning. Cash savings are gonna take a big devaluation, especially with Federal Reserve holding down interest rates, which in turn holds down what the bank can pay for your savings account. What do you do, the stock market is a yo-yo, where do you go...I understand the advantage of real estate its a tangible asset no matter what happens to the value, and its the same for GA/SA comic books,  they are tangible but more than ever you should get then CGC'ed should ever be in a position where you need to act fast in a liquidation emergency.  That future  valuation is contingent upon the economy not going into a depression.

 So here is my GA/SA buying and selling advice  November 2020.

 1-Any purchase over $1000 in the middle of this pandemic should be considered an "Investment" purchase regardless of your economic status.  So on those purchases avoid restored unless a mega key that you will never be able to afford, avoid any type of tape, poor page quality and fading of any kind. If you do purchase a ungraded book over $1000 get it graded asap and get some type of guarantee that you can return it if there is some type of undisclosed restoration. Pedigree books would be my number 1 purchase  priority, those stand the best chance of appreciating in these inflationary times ahead, I just went to home depo for some lumber for a home project  and the prices have gone up like 100% in the last 7 months...even a mid grade pedigree would be a good buy. So in terms of buying you might have pay more out now....but you will be safer in the long run. Pedigree GA/SA should remain a  rock solid purchase during this pandemic and its inflationary after effects.

2-Sell UP....meaning if love the book, try to get a higher grade copy and sell the lower, if you have a non-pedigree copy and can get one, exchange it out. I would sell again any low grade unrestored, ungraded, restored GA/SA and take the proceeds and buy some of the quality books that are out there now, such as the ones on the current HA.com signature auction in November. Action houses now give you an advance if you consign your GA/SA comic books, and I know HA.com will either give you an auction credit as well so you can sell and upgrade very easy. For example send them some books to put in the weekly auction and buy  better something in signature auction...easy upgrade.

3-Trading either to fellow collector or dealer...some dealers will trade down to get more stock while you trade up to make your collection better. Collector to collector is the best as you can get a more even deal that way. I am surprised that given the lack of conventions, flea markets, and comic shop closures that more of this does not go on. As long as you upgrade, this will work.

We are in like chapter 3 or 10 chapter story. It is going to be very interesting to see given the increased demand for collectable comic books due to stay at home conditions and inflation whether we can make  investment quality CGC  graded GA/SA  an official inflation buster.

 

Edited November 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Aman619]

Did the posts about his collection get moved? Or deleted? I did int even notice it was in the wrong section, but it’s an interesting issue...

[Mmehdy]

49 minutes ago, Aman619 said:

Did the posts about his collection get moved? Or deleted? I did int even notice it was in the wrong section, but it’s an interesting issue...

The jist of the conversations was that GA/SA comic books from his collection have appreciated in value. There was some dispute over exactly how much they appreciated. The point is, that collectables, and would say "quality" collectables have gone up according to GPA and other sources. If you read the mile high comic book newsletter like I do, Chuck thinks the more comic books are being destroyed than created due to the limited publishing and distribution that has occurred during the pandemic as well as the wildfires which have hit the west coast especially hard.He claims is  mail order business is booming such that he has just bought  like $750K worth of out of print marvel TBS etc that apparently Marvel was dumping from there warehouse and not he refused to give discounts on TPS/Graphic novels which he is hoarding. So depending upon who you hear it from it is either the best of times or the worst of times.

Edited November 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Aman619]

I was posting in the discussion so I know what it was about.  For me it was a chance to talk about valuation methodologies given the sources of verified sales. And how difficult it is to reach a FMV for our comics.  Id like to continue that discussion. Frankly, quoting anything Chuck has to say about anything is meaningless to me.  He ALWAYS claims his business is booming and buying what he considers 750K in comics only means they MAY be worth 200K retail.  And he paid 25K for them in hopes he can hang on long enough to sell them, is Chucks MO.  

just hoping to find out if the posts were moved or deleted completely.

[Mmehdy]

42 minutes ago, Aman619 said:

I was posting in the discussion so I know what it was about.  For me it was a chance to talk about valuation methodologies given the sources of verified sales. And how difficult it is to reach a FMV for our comics.  Id like to continue that discussion. Frankly, quoting anything Chuck has to say about anything is meaningless to me.  He ALWAYS claims his business is booming and buying what he considers 750K in comics only means they MAY be worth 200K retail.  And he paid 25K for them in hopes he can hang on long enough to sell them, is Chucks MO.  

just hoping to find out if the posts were moved or deleted completely.

The classic FMV response is what a willing buyer and seller agree upon. Too may of us rely only on Auction sales or E- bay sales to determine FMV and apply those market conditions to other similar GA/SA books. The reason we rely on that is simple..it easy to access. In some ways bob Overstreet's guide is superior as he assembles a universal market report from the dealers on the front line. I would say comic book convention dealers/ flea market dealers  would be the best source for  current valuation. There are no conventions and flea markets during this pandemic , such that will be missing from the equation for current valuation methodologies, but some of them have strong web presence. So I go back to square 1- willing buyer and seller some of whom don't care about prior sales or current FMV and Overstreet nailed it, the price of valuation is just a guide. 

Edited November 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Aman619]

yes  I said that earlier in a deleted post. Its what a book sells for that counts, not what we guess its worth at home or in the vault.  What the OP and I are seeking to solve is valuing things as what they are worth NOW, and again from time to time.  When you tell a broker to sell a stock, you find out later what you sold at because the ticker is only a snapshot not a sale.  But you will be close (if your broker doesn't slice off too much for himself, but that another story).  With comics, especially for rarely traded issues, its all guesswork. A sale in 2015 can be half of its current value.  But often its twice what it will sell for today.

Overstreet? I love the guide but its at best a clue to what a raw copy might be valued at.  And it doesn't tell you whether your copy is worth 50% of the Guide, or 2x the Guide price because he cant keep up with changes (like movie speculation which hits quick and hits hard). My system is built on Guide prices. But nearly all have to be massaged by real time sales as on GPA. multiples of condition guide (above and below guide) just reach the right number. Its a book by book thing, and a lot of guesswork.   (Unless someone has worked out a foolproof system??  which would help all of us!

Sure dealers have the pulse of the market. But try getting one to come over and value 1000s of your comics, for free... once a year  (waiting for Bob Storms to give me an amen on that). Im willing to do it myself, just trying to be accurate.

so yeah, Im keenly aware of the problems and limitations inherent with each approach. So I look forward to discussing what others here are doing to work this out. Sorry he started this in the wrong thread, bad on him.  But where is the discussion now?  Comics General?  maybe CGC whose been adding a section pretty often could start one for Valuing Comics??

 

[fifties]

8 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

The jist of the conversations was that GA/SA comic books from his collection have appreciated in value.

If you are referring to the member who listed his books and described their market fluctuations, he didn't HAVE any GA books mentioned, and I'm not sure if he indicated any SA either.  That's why the moderator deleted his posts.

[Tri-Color Brian]

I have some Mmehdy decoder rings available.  They are great for deciphering Mitch's grammatically challenged posts... 

[Joshua33]

Seeing the prices of the books im watching at Heritage and where they already are, is scary. Somebody needs to tell those bidders there's a crisis! I wanted those books but they've already skyrocketed above market value with 20 days left. Guess I have good taste, or the market is still very hot.

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, Joshua33 said:

Seeing the prices of the books im watching at Heritage and where they already are, is scary. Somebody needs to tell those bidders there's a crisis! I wanted those books but they've already skyrocketed above market value with 20 days left. Guess I have good taste, or the market is still very hot.

You are right on both points...

[lou_fine]

On 8/31/2020 at 5:53 AM, piper said:

On 8/31/2020 at 2:30 AM, Black Captain said:

Reviewing the results from the most recent Heritage, Comicconnect, and Comiclink auctions, I think it is fair to say that the current crisis is not having a big enough impact to force auction purchases downward. In fact, I would hypothesize that a lot of the strong prices achieved were due to people lacking the ability to travel or engage in a lot of the regular activities that are the norm at this time. Unemployment appears to have had very little to no impact on the market. In addition, it is also possible that a lot of individuals are reluctant to put their significant books in no reserve auctions due to fears that their books could take significant losses. However this opens a huge opportunity for individuals to do the opposite and bring their better to best books to auction allowing them to take advantage of the lack of competition. I would recommend that anyone considering cosigning should do so now while the competition is minimal and a significant amount of the population is sitting on excess cash. 

I hope you’re right. I have a handful of GA books in the upcoming September Heritage Auction. It’s my first time selling in anytime of Auction Format and I’m a little nervous about it.

There all classic covers but one never really knows...

Well, it they are all classic cover books, then I believe you don't have much to worry about at all.  

Especially considering that this somewhat classic cover copy of Science Comics 4 managed to sell for $6K or almost 8X condition guide in yesterday's HA Sunday auction:  

From what I can tell, there must be a lot of people willing to throw money around when even commom books like Spidey 300 in CGC 9.8 are running in the $5K+ territory and signed copies are now going for well over $7K.    

[piper]

49 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Well, it they are all classic cover books, then I believe you don't have much to worry about at all.  

Especially considering that this somewhat classic cover copy of Science Comics 4 managed to sell for $6K or almost 8X condition guide in yesterday's HA Sunday auction:  

From what I can tell, there must be a lot of people willing to throw money around when even commom books like Spidey 300 in CGC 9.8 are running in the $5K+ territory and signed copies are now going for well over $7K.    

I did pretty well ☺️ 

[Math Teacher]

23 hours ago, fifties said:

If you are referring to the member who listed his books and described their market fluctuations, he didn't HAVE any GA books mentioned, and I'm not sure if he indicated any SA either.  That's why the moderator deleted his posts.

I'm the original poster, and you are correct. I don't have any CGC graded GA books in my collection. I'm perfectly fine with having my posts being removed, as this IS the Golden Age forum. But as to whether I indicated that I didn't have any Silver Age books is erroneous. I believe most of the books that I highlighted were Silver Age.

So, if I ever make a post of this type again (and that's a mighty big IF), it will be posted in the Silver Age forum.

It's fine to disagree with my methodology of valuing my collection. As @Aman619 mentioned, there is no really good way to value your collection, especially if you have a book that has had no sales in a particular grade in the last two years. Some people use GoCollect, some people use GPAnalysis 90-day average, and some people use the last sale price on GPAnalysis. I don't believe that I have said that my way of valuing my collection is the be-all and end-all of how to do it. It's just the method I chose. So, if someone can tell me a better way to value my collection, I'm all ears. For example, I have a TtA #35 in CGC 4.0 with C-1 restoration. GPAnalysis no longer lists books with restoration (or if they do, I don't know where to look). does list books with restoration, signatures, and conservation, if you are smart enough to click the checkboxes at the top of the page. So, I take the value of a blue-label of TtA #35 in 4.0, and I cut in half to value my restored copy. Is that the correct way to do it? Probably not, but I have never seen a set of guidelines of how to value a purple label, based on the value of an exact same grade of a blue label. I have a copy of Black Knight #2 in CGC 5.5; if you look at the BK #2 page, you will see that there has not been a recorded sale of BK #2 CGC 5.5 ever, according to GPA records. The value of a CGC 5.0 is $672 for a sale that occurred in February, 2020. The value of a CGC 6.0 is $335, for a sale that occurred in May, 2018. How can you get a FMV for my book based on those two values?

If others would like to continue the posts about how they value their collection, I think that would be a very worthy thread.

I apologize for putting my information in the wrong forum. And I will admit, I am very sensitive to criticism. As a former teacher, I got criticized a lot - by students, by administrators, and by parents. I just don't like to get criticized when I come to one of my favorite sites on the Internet.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Joe Ankenbauer

[sfcityduck]

4 minutes ago, Joe Ankenbauer said:

So, if someone can tell me a better way to value my collection, I'm all ears.

Here's some thoughts:

Absent recent comparable price results, I don't see how you can value an item with no intrinsic value other than (1) by how much you love it or (2) by how much you realistically would pay to replace your comics if you spill coffee all over them.

UNLESS, you offer up your books up for sale on an auction site, with zero reserve, and see what you get on the closest thing we have to a free market.  

[fifties]

35 minutes ago, Joe Ankenbauer said:

But as to whether I indicated that I didn't have any Silver Age books is erroneous. I believe most of the books that I highlighted were Silver Age.

If others would like to continue the posts about how they value their collection, I think that would be a very worthy thread.

 

Thx for the clarification.  I'm not too familiar with Silver Age books printed later than 1957, so of course didn't recognize the titles.  Nor, being that this is the G/A forum, should I have to.  By that of course you can see good reason to simply post books of that genre in the S/A forum.

IMHO the best way to determine FMV -esp of raw books- is to simply review eBay closed sales.  Second might be HA. 

Personally, I buy G/A horror and crime comics to keep and read, so don't really follow any market value,  Since you brought it up, however, I am utterly astounded by the dramatic rise in realized sales prices having occurred this year in the horror genre.

[KCOComics]

1 hour ago, fifties said:

  Since you brought it up, however, I am utterly astounded by the dramatic rise in realized sales prices having occurred this year in the horror genre.

I'm pretty much astonished by prices across the board.  I know,  all collectors should be happy to see the prices go up and up,  but I'm disappointed a bit. It puts allot books I would love to own out of reach. 

[sfcityduck]

1 hour ago, fifties said:

Personally, I buy G/A horror and crime comics to keep and read, so don't really follow any market value,  Since you brought it up, however, I am utterly astounded by the dramatic rise in realized sales prices having occurred this year in the horror genre.

A lot of folks think we're living in a horror movie.  Maybe these comics make the present crisis seem a bit more manageable.  

[KCOComics]

1 hour ago, sfcityduck said:

A lot of folks think we're living in a horror movie.  Maybe these comics make the present crisis seem a bit more manageable.  

I posted this somewhere else,  but when the pandemic set in,  toilet paper disappeared, my kids school was closed and the economy was collapsing, I took allot of comfort in cracking open atomic age Atlas comics and reading apocalyptic stories. 

 

[Math Teacher]

4 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

Here's some thoughts:

Absent recent comparable price results, I don't see how you can value an item with no intrinsic value other than (1) by how much you love it or (2) by how much you realistically would pay to replace your comics if you spill coffee all over them.

UNLESS, you offer up your books up for sale on an auction site, with zero reserve, and see what you get on the closest thing we have to a free market.  

Yet, people do this all the time. I don't know if you remember, but it was recently mentioned that the original art for the cover of Amazing Spider-Man #129 was going to be put up for auction. I believe it is being auctioned by ComicConnect, and they stated that this piece of artwork could sell for $2,000,000. Frankly, I think that is way too high, but auctions can be funny sometimes.

If you owned this artwork, how would you determine its value? You certainly can't look at recent comparable results. If I owned this artwork, I would certainly have it insured. I would have to provide my insurance company with a value of what I feel its worth to be. Obviously, if it was damaged in a fire, you can't replace it, but you would need some way to recoup your loss.

Doesn't the Overstreet Price Guide list values of books that are rarely, if ever, sold? Yes, I know that they have a network of dealers to provide input, but I would be surprised if a copy of Black Knight #2 CGC 5.5 has been sold in 2019 or 2020. So, I'm sure the Overstreet Price Guide does what a lot of people do. They make an educated guess.