Con Season 2021 0

[1Cool]

33 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

I just dont think we'll have the level of vaccine distribution necessary by spring to make it. Maybe summer, probably fall. 
And then there's the fact that it will likely take a while (weeks to months) for vaccine efficacy. 

My gut is telling me the general US populous will be completely over with the virus (regardless of if the virus is done killing us yet) by the end of the year.  This will especially be true if there is a viable vaccine and even better treatments in place to considerable drop the serious illness rates.  The risks do not need to be zero for people to risk going to Cons again - people risk getting sick each time they go to a Con but people flock to them anyhow.  My prediction is for a complete slew of Cons next year (with some restrictions and masks).

[snitzer]

4 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

My gut is telling me the general US populous will be completely over with the virus (regardless of if the virus is done killing us yet) by the end of the year.  This will especially be true if there is a viable vaccine and even better treatments in place to considerable drop the serious illness rates.  The risks do not need to be zero for people to risk going to Cons again - people risk getting sick each time they go to a Con but people flock to them anyhow.  My prediction is for a complete slew of Cons next year (with some restrictions and masks).

While ours in August was in a bigger hall, then past cons, the crowds were still decent nonetheless. It was a blast actually!

[speedcake]

3 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

My gut is telling me the general US populous will be completely over with the virus (regardless of if the virus is done killing us yet) by the end of the year.  This will especially be true if there is a viable vaccine and even better treatments in place to considerable drop the serious illness rates.  The risks do not need to be zero for people to risk going to Cons again - people risk getting sick each time they go to a Con but people flock to them anyhow.  My prediction is for a complete slew of Cons next year (with some restrictions and masks).

I think so as well. There will be a breaking point where people are just ready to get back to normal, and I think we are already just about there.

[miraclemet]

6 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

My gut is telling me the general US populous will be completely over with the virus (regardless of if the virus is done killing us yet) by the end of the year.  This will especially be true if there is a viable vaccine and even better treatments in place to considerable drop the serious illness rates.  The risks do not need to be zero for people to risk going to Cons again - people risk getting sick each time they go to a Con but people flock to them anyhow.  My prediction is for a complete slew of Cons next year (with some restrictions and masks).

once a vaccine is available(available meaning proven effective and beginning mass manufacturing)  people will hopefully keep up safe practices (masks, social distancing) until their group gets vaccinated. It's gonna be a multi phase distribution and the genpop wont get it until phase 4 probably, and even then it will likely be a 2 dose vaccine, meaning until after the 2nd dose, one wont have "immunity".  So based on the phases distribution and manufacturing limitations I think end of this year is not at all likely. 

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by miraclemet

[1Cool]

5 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

once a vaccine is available(available meaning proven effective and beginning mass manufacturing)  people will hopefully keep up safe practices (masks, social distancing) until their group gets vaccinated. It's gonna be a multi phase distribution and the genpop wont get it until phase 4 probably, and even then it will likely be a 2 dose vaccine, meaning until after the 2nd dose, one wont have "immunity".  So based on the phases distribution and manufacturing limitations I think end of this year is not at all likely. 

 

Not going to happen in my opinion.  Once a viable vaccine has been developed and is being distributed then you will see a large percentage of people (especially younger, healthy people) will just go back to normal.  Is this the correct way of going about it - probably not but after a year of living in fear I'd put money on things going back to pretty much normal if a viable vaccine is available.  There will be restrictions like masks and crowd thinning procedures but I'd bet on next year's Cons being pretty much normal again regardless if everyone has the vaccine. High risk people will stay home but they will be replaced by people stir crazy to go out and spend some cash and get out of the house.

[speedcake]

It does seem like mandated mask usage, improved hygiene, etc should make it possible to start having large gatherings again.  Those precautions don't eliminate the spread, it may never be possible to fully eliminate the spread (we don't KNOW we'll ever get a vaccine for this virus),  but at some point it will be acceptable to go to concerts, sporting events, and comic book conventions again without fear of dying.  Hopefully soon.

[miraclemet]

3 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Not going to happen in my opinion.  Once a viable vaccine has been developed and is being distributed then you will see a large percentage of people (especially younger, healthy people) will just go back to normal.  Is this the correct way of going about it - probably not but after a year of living in fear I'd put money on things going back to pretty much normal if a viable vaccine is available.  There will be restrictions like masks and crowd thinning procedures but I'd bet on next year's Cons being pretty much normal again regardless if everyone has the vaccine. High risk people will stay home but they will be replaced by people stir crazy to go out and spend some cash and get out of the house.

my point is once a vaccine is made and being produced it wont be released to the general public until phase 3 or 4 of rollout. (phase 1: Primary Care workers, Phase 2 Imnuo-compromised, Phase 3 the remaining elderly not captured in Phase 2, Phase 4 general public, and that's IF they dont decide to break out adolescents ahead of the "general public")

If someone is in phase 4 and hasn't gotten the vaccine yet, I would think they'd wait for the vaccine to get distributed to them before going back to "normal" since the mere presence of a vaccine in the population doesn't protect you from catching it.  Why suffer through 6 months of social distancing just to get COVID cause you couldnt wait the extra month for your vaccine group to come up? 

[1Cool]

27 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

my point is once a vaccine is made and being produced it wont be released to the general public until phase 3 or 4 of rollout. (phase 1: Primary Care workers, Phase 2 Imnuo-compromised, Phase 3 the remaining elderly not captured in Phase 2, Phase 4 general public, and that's IF they dont decide to break out adolescents ahead of the "general public")

If someone is in phase 4 and hasn't gotten the vaccine yet, I would think they'd wait for the vaccine to get distributed to them before going back to "normal" since the mere presence of a vaccine in the population doesn't protect you from catching it.  Why suffer through 6 months of social distancing just to get COVID cause you couldnt wait the extra month for your vaccine group to come up? 

Hundreds of thousands of people went to Sturgis even though there is no vaccine.  I'm not questioning your logic and I don't think you are wrong that people should wait but I don't see people waiting once the magic words "viable vaccine" is let loose.  A large block of people are suffering through 6 months of social distancing since the local authorities cancelled the events - not because they are worried about the virus.  Unless the numbers drastically change, I do not see people adhering to the current policies even if a vaccine is not 100% distributed.  I could be wrong but based on what I'm seeing over the last month or so I'm comfortable with my opinion.

[Mercury Man]

7 hours ago, miraclemet said:

the density, lack of air flow and low ceilings in those conference room conventions are not an improvement 

Good point 

[revat]

The other thing I would say is that the draw of many conventions are guests like celebrities or comic creators, and in many if not most cases, that requires travel and hotel, which I think many of those potential guests may be weary of, especially as usually conventions try to guarantee a certain amount of money up front, and may have to find high priced insurance.  But it'll be tough to shake hands and take pics and get signatures in the age of COVID, so those might be less appealing for guests and people.  So for somewhat local conventions, I can see those getting back to normal faster as dealers need to make money and they don't usually involve huge lines or crowded conference rooms with panels.  

But it also may depend on the state, the locality, and possibly even the elections (on local, state, and federal levels).  NO POLITICS about what's good/bad, just saying when trying to think about might happen when for one's personal planning or non-cgc board speculation, that could be something that is a factor.